BBD Stats and MWC Rankings - Week 9 (Boise St)

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BBD Stats and MWC Rankings - Week 9 (Boise St)

Post by BigBlueDart » October 23rd, 2017, 1:04 pm

Brief explanation: The first column has the team stats for the team being considered (4 offense, and 4 defense). Then you have the average of those opponents. The Rel Perf (or relative performance) is just the difference between the first column and the opponent average. The ratio is just the relative performance divided by the opponent average. Positive values are good and negative are bad.

<TABLE BORDER=1>
<TR>
<TH>Stats</TD>
<TH>USU</TD>
<TH>Opp Avg</TD>
<TH>Rel Perf</TD>
<TH>Ratio</TD>
</TR>
<TR>
<TD>Score O vs D</TD>
<TD>32.6</TD>
<TD>27.3</TD>
<TD>5.3</TD>
<TD>19.31%</TD>
</TR>
<TR>
<TD>Rush O vs D</TD>
<TD>158.9</TD>
<TD>189.3</TD>
<TD>-30.4</TD>
<TD>-16.05%</TD>
</TR>
<TR>
<TD>Pass O vs D</TD>
<TD>242.0</TD>
<TD>218.8</TD>
<TD>23.2</TD>
<TD>10.62%</TD>
</TR>
<TR>
<TD>Total O vs D</TD>
<TD>400.9</TD>
<TD>408.1</TD>
<TD>-7.2</TD>
<TD>-1.76%</TD>
</TR>
<TR>
<TD>Score D vs O</TD>
<TD>29.4</TD>
<TD>27.0</TD>
<TD>-2.4</TD>
<TD>-9.02%</TD>
</TR>
<TR>
<TD>Rush D vs O</TD>
<TD>204.0</TD>
<TD>175.0</TD>
<TD>-29.1</TD>
<TD>-16.60%</TD>
</TR>
<TR>
<TD>Pass D vs O</TD>
<TD>194.6</TD>
<TD>219.2</TD>
<TD>24.6</TD>
<TD>11.21%</TD>
</TR>
<TR>
<TD>Total D vs O</TD>
<TD>398.6</TD>
<TD>394.1</TD>
<TD>-4.5</TD>
<TD>-1.14%</TD>
</TR>
</TABLE>


<TABLE BORDER=1>
<TR>
<TH>Stats</TD>
<TH>Boise St</TD>
<TH>Opp Avg</TD>
<TH>Rel Perf</TD>
<TH>Ratio</TD>
</TR>
<TR>
<TD>Score O vs D</TD>
<TD>28.3</TD>
<TD>22.4</TD>
<TD>5.9</TD>
<TD>26.48%</TD>
</TR>
<TR>
<TD>Rush O vs D</TD>
<TD>139.6</TD>
<TD>145.6</TD>
<TD>-6.0</TD>
<TD>-4.10%</TD>
</TR>
<TR>
<TD>Pass O vs D</TD>
<TD>197.3</TD>
<TD>191.1</TD>
<TD>6.2</TD>
<TD>3.24%</TD>
</TR>
<TR>
<TD>Total O vs D</TD>
<TD>336.9</TD>
<TD>336.7</TD>
<TD>0.2</TD>
<TD>0.06%</TD>
</TR>
<TR>
<TD>Score D vs O</TD>
<TD>21.6</TD>
<TD>24.0</TD>
<TD>2.4</TD>
<TD>10.09%</TD>
</TR>
<TR>
<TD>Rush D vs O</TD>
<TD>103.3</TD>
<TD>145.1</TD>
<TD>41.8</TD>
<TD>28.79%</TD>
</TR>
<TR>
<TD>Pass D vs O</TD>
<TD>209.6</TD>
<TD>222.0</TD>
<TD>12.4</TD>
<TD>5.60%</TD>
</TR>
<TR>
<TD>Total D vs O</TD>
<TD>312.9</TD>
<TD>367.1</TD>
<TD>54.2</TD>
<TD>14.77%</TD>
</TR>
</TABLE>

And the official BBD BS Prediction:
USU - 28.53 (95.03 rush, 231.20 pass, 326.23 total)
Boise St - 33.03 (183.34 rush, 186.76 pass, 370.10 total)



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Re: BBD Stats and MWC Rankings - Week 9 (Boise St)

Post by BigBlueDart » October 23rd, 2017, 1:07 pm

Here is how we each stand in the conference in each category:

Score O: USU-3rd; BSU-1st
Rush O: USU-9th; BSU-8th
Pass O: USU-4th; BSU-6th
Total O: USU-9th; BSU-8th

Score D: USU-7th; BSU-6th
Rush D: USU-8th; BSU-3rd
Pass D: USU-3rd; BSU-8th
Total D: USU-7th; BSU-3rd



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Re: BBD Stats and MWC Rankings - Week 9 (Boise St)

Post by BigBlueDart » October 23rd, 2017, 1:10 pm

And here is the combined score ranking for the whole MWC:

1. Fresno St (+86.08%)
2. Boise St (+51.39%)
3. Colorado St (+51.07%)
4. SDSU (+44.05%)
5. New Mexico (+17.23%)
6. Air Force (+10.87%)
7. USU (+7.40%)
8. Wyoming (-1.62%)
9. Nevada (-19.01%)
10. UNLV (-21.07%)
11. Hawai'i (-27.74%)
12. SJSU (-101.01%)



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Re: BBD Stats and MWC Rankings - Week 9 (Boise St)

Post by AggieDude » October 23rd, 2017, 1:16 pm

Three of our remaining four games are statistically better than us according to your analysis. AF looks to be essentially a tossup. Too bad we let WYO slip away.



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Re: BBD Stats and MWC Rankings - Week 9 (Boise St)

Post by AggieBlues » October 23rd, 2017, 1:27 pm

But, but, but these offensive stats are mostly based on a KM-led offensive attack. We've entered a new era of Love, man! Wipe that slate clean, FTW!


The amount of energy necessary to refute bull (I can't express myself without swearing) is an order of magnitude greater than to produce it.

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Re: BBD Stats and MWC Rankings - Week 9 (Boise St)

Post by BigBlueDart » October 23rd, 2017, 1:33 pm

AggieBlues wrote:But, but, but these offensive stats are mostly based on a KM-led offensive attack. We've entered a new era of Love, man! Wipe that slate clean, FTW!
This is precisely why I dare to let myself hope. My hope is that we see a bit better performance in the passing game, thus letting us squeak over 100 yards in the rushing game, and then maybe winning a close battle on Saturday. I recognize that things can easily take a turn for the worse for a still-developing freshman QB, especially against a solid opponent like the Broncos. I wouldn't dare say that I expect a win on Saturday. It just seems a little more possible now that we have Love under center.



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Re: BBD Stats and MWC Rankings - Week 9 (Boise St)

Post by USU78 » October 23rd, 2017, 2:31 pm

Have you considered doing a "conference stats only" analysis, now that we're halfway through the season (well, we are, Boazy, not yet)?


You keep using that word. I do not think that word means what you think it means.

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Re: BBD Stats and MWC Rankings - Week 9 (Boise St)

Post by AGGIEinIOWA » October 23rd, 2017, 2:39 pm

Boise being 8th in pass defense gives me some hope with Love flinging the rock.



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Re: BBD Stats and MWC Rankings - Week 9 (Boise St)

Post by BigBlueDart » October 23rd, 2017, 2:48 pm

USU78 wrote:Have you considered doing a "conference stats only" analysis, now that we're halfway through the season (well, we are, Boazy, not yet)?
I believe you get more statistical benefit looking at all teams played than looking at in-conference only. That just further dilutes the pool of comparison. I get the point of it, but until teams are most of the way through their conference schedule you can have some outliers of teams that have played only the tougher conference teams or only the weaker conference teams. Look at Colorado St, for instance, who have played Hawai'i, us, Nevada, and New Mexico. That's not the toughest lineup from our conference so far, but it is tempered by their having played against Alabama and Colorado.



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Re: BBD Stats and MWC Rankings - Week 9 (Boise St)

Post by NVAggie » October 23rd, 2017, 9:21 pm

Looks like a decent match up with Boise.



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Re: BBD Stats and MWC Rankings - Week 9 (Boise St)

Post by WasatchAggie » October 23rd, 2017, 9:48 pm

How accurate have your predictions been this seaons?



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Re: BBD Stats and MWC Rankings - Week 9 (Boise St)

Post by BigBlueDart » October 23rd, 2017, 11:45 pm

I think I've managed to pick the winner, but that's as far as it goes. The actual numbers are usually pretty far off, I think. If have to go back and double check them to be sure. Maybe tomorrow?

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