USU O/U 7.5 wins

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USU O/U 7.5 wins

Post by QuackAttackAggie » May 27th, 2018, 6:53 pm

BYU 5.5
Utah 7
Boise 10
CSU 5.5
AF 4.5
UNM 4
Wyoming 6.5


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Re: USU O/U 7.5 wins

Post by aceofspadeskb » May 27th, 2018, 6:57 pm

Over or bust. 8 wins minimum this year.

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Re: USU O/U 7.5 wins

Post by Madmartigan » May 27th, 2018, 7:36 pm

8 wins is a good season. Anything more is gravy. Less would be disappointing based on schedule and what we have returning.



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Re: USU O/U 7.5 wins

Post by bigblue » May 27th, 2018, 8:11 pm

I will be sorely disappointed with 7 or less wins.

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Re: USU O/U 7.5 wins

Post by Usurossco » May 28th, 2018, 6:17 am

8 wins Plus is the only acceptable number this year.


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Re: USU O/U 7.5 wins

Post by ChicAggie » May 28th, 2018, 9:45 am

Agreed re 8+ wins. With this schedule and the returning roster we have, if Wells can't win at least 8 games, he will have proven himself to be less than capable of getting the most out of his players.


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Re: USU O/U 7.5 wins

Post by dyedblue » May 28th, 2018, 9:46 am

8 would be a great season, I'll never ever look down at a 6 or 7 win season either.

We've had many less difficult schedules than this and win only 2-3 games.


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Re: USU O/U 7.5 wins

Post by donlarson8 » May 28th, 2018, 9:51 am

dyedblue wrote:8 would be a great season, I'll never ever look down at a 6 or 7 win season either.

We've had many less difficult schedules than this and win only 2-3 games.


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While true, expectations have thankfully risen since those days. 6 or 7 wins with all the returning talent we have and our schedule would be a disappointment for me. I’m hoping for and expecting 8 or more and a bowl win.


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Re: USU O/U 7.5 wins

Post by Jjoey53 » May 28th, 2018, 3:59 pm

8 is certainly a reasonable goal. Anything under 8 would be a disappointment.


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Re: USU O/U 7.5 wins

Post by swordsman1989 » May 29th, 2018, 11:33 pm

Bare minimum of 8 regular season wins. Anything less and Wells should be gone. But 8 wins would not excite me for a long term extension for Wells.



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Re: USU O/U 7.5 wins

Post by dyedblue » May 30th, 2018, 7:14 am

swordsman1989 wrote:Bare minimum of 8 regular season wins. Anything less and Wells should be gone. But 8 wins would not excite me for a long term extension for Wells.
Just cut to the chase. You hate Matt Wells and there is absolutely nothing be could do as a coach to make you happy. If we win 10 games you'd still want him run.

How is that working out for BYU?


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Re: USU O/U 7.5 wins

Post by taniataylor » May 30th, 2018, 9:19 am

Isn’t this his last year under contract?? We should probably hope he stays ....ya never know who we might get stuck with. 7.5 is an improvement over last year ( whatever .5 of a win is)
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Re: USU O/U 7.5 wins

Post by 2004AG » May 30th, 2018, 11:24 am

swordsman1989 wrote:Bare minimum of 8 regular season wins. Anything less and Wells should be gone. But 8 wins would not excite me for a long term extension for Wells.
I’ve been told that the current university support, budget, conference, winning culture inherited from Gary, and new facilities that we currently have are no better than what Mick Dennehy had so we shouldn’t expect more than a couple wins a year out of Matt Wells.


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Re: USU O/U 7.5 wins

Post by El Sapo » May 30th, 2018, 3:39 pm

I think that it's over. Love will find a way....I know



I can see how these decisions might seem overwhelming for some posters, football is complex. It can seem like a single decision doesn't matter because there are too many variables......That wasn't the case with Wake Forest

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Re: USU O/U 7.5 wins

Post by thegreendalegelf » May 30th, 2018, 3:51 pm

7.5 is a great spread. Do we win the game we are supposed to? Then over. Does Wells underachieve? Then under. Perfect spot and enough to have me want the over. Is Wendover the closest spot to make a bet?



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Re: USU O/U 7.5 wins

Post by jackmormon » May 30th, 2018, 8:00 pm

thegreendalegelf wrote:
May 30th, 2018, 3:51 pm
7.5 is a great spread. Do we win the game we are supposed to? Then over. Does Wells underachieve? Then under. Perfect spot and enough to have me want the over. Is Wendover the closest spot to make a bet?
7.5 seems like a reasonable number. I’m taking the over and predicting 8. Then it’s contract extension time.

How many here think we should have hired Kalini Sitaki instead of Wells?



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Re: USU O/U 7.5 wins

Post by BLUERUFiO » May 30th, 2018, 8:30 pm

I’m in the camp that wanted Sitaki instead of Wells. Honestly, I’m baffled that Sitaki hasn’t had more wins or a better looking D.

However, their head coach win-loss record is very close:

MW: 34-32
Sitaki: 13-13

Obviously, the sample size is smaller for Sitaki. I still think he will prove to be the better head coach... but, my confidence is waning. This season will be really telling for Sitaki.


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Re: USU O/U 7.5 wins

Post by GUS » May 30th, 2018, 9:47 pm

Sitake has had budget and recruiting advantages that Wells never had. He inherited a decent program from Bronco with decent facilities. With the sample we have, I would take Wells over Sitake every time.



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Re: USU O/U 7.5 wins

Post by 2004AG » May 30th, 2018, 9:51 pm

jackmormon wrote:
thegreendalegelf wrote:
May 30th, 2018, 3:51 pm
7.5 is a great spread. Do we win the game we are supposed to? Then over. Does Wells underachieve? Then under. Perfect spot and enough to have me want the over. Is Wendover the closest spot to make a bet?
7.5 seems like a reasonable number. I’m taking the over and predicting 8. Then it’s contract extension time.

How many here think we should have hired Kalini Sitaki instead of Wells?
I think the reports of Sitaki’s demise are premature. Unfortunately I don’t think BYU will be down for long.

As has been pointed out. His win percentage is nearly identical to Wells. I would hold off crowing about Wells being the better coach, for now at least....


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Re: USU O/U 7.5 wins

Post by dyedblue » May 30th, 2018, 10:23 pm

Sitake is a train wreck and he'd better hope that his experienced assistants cover for his complete lack of discipline and general inability to lead. He was a great assistant but not had coach. Talk to anyone in the know know in their program and they are not optimistic.

Last year they had a bye before our game. They did not practice during the bye week and the coaches all took some time off and let the players run things for a week by themselves. They didn't just go on recruiting visits, they literally abandoned their team.

I'll take Wells and his saltiness over Sitake. Sitake may figure this out but it will take all the experience in the world from his assistants to do it.


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Re: USU O/U 7.5 wins

Post by JSHarvey » May 31st, 2018, 6:14 pm

BLUERUFiO wrote:
May 30th, 2018, 8:30 pm
I’m in the camp that wanted Sitaki instead of Wells. Honestly, I’m baffled that Sitaki hasn’t had more wins or a better looking D.

However, their head coach win-loss record is very close:

MW: 34-32
Sitaki: 13-13

Obviously, the sample size is smaller for Sitaki. I still think he will prove to be the better head coach... but, my confidence is waning. This season will be really telling for Sitaki.
BYU plays an astounding number of garbage games just to fill their schedule. A 13-13 record given the opponents is pretty bad.


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Re: USU O/U 7.5 wins

Post by BLUERUFiO » May 31st, 2018, 7:06 pm

I am in no way a BYU apologist, but, that statement doesn't seem true. Here is their 2017 schedule:

Portland State (garbage game)
LSU (ranked 18th at the time)
Utah
Wisconsin (ranked 7th at the time)
Utah State (hope you don't consider us a garbage game... and we won by 16 woo!)
Boise State (ranked 22nd at the time and MWC)
Mississippi State (ranked 19th at the time)
East Carolina (some years an OK G5 team that I wouldn't consider garbage... maybe you would?)
San Jose State (MWC and we played them this year)
Fresno State (MWC)
UNLV (MWC and we played them this year)
UMASS (garbage game)
Hawaii (MWC and we played them this year)

So, I see 2 true garbage games (Portland State and UMASS... which they lost to UMASS LOL). They played 4 games against ranked opponents while we played 2 games against ranked opponents. They won 4 games with their schedule... and just for fun, if we were to play their schedule last year, here is what I would predict for us:

Portland State (garbage game) = WIN
LSU (ranked 18th at the time) = LOSS
Utah = LOSS
Wisconsin (ranked 7th at the time) = LOSS
----UTAH STATE vs. BYU ---- = WIN
Boise State (ranked 22nd at the time) = LOSS (happened)
Mississippi State (ranked 19th at the time) = LOSS
East Carolina (ok G5 team that I wouldn't consider garbage... maybe you would?) = WIN
San Jose State (MWC and we played them this year) = WIN (happened)
Fresno State (MWC) = LOSS
UNLV (MWC and we played them this year) = WIN (happened)
UMASS (garbage game) = WIN
Hawaii (MWC and we played them this year) = WIN (happened)

7-6.

And now, here is BYU's 2018 schedule:

Arizona
California
Wisconsin
McNeese St. (garbage)
Washington
Utah State
Hawaii
NIU
Boise State
UMASS (garbage)
NM State (we lost to them last year)
Utah

So, again, I would say 2 true garbage games in 2018 for BYU. That is 1 more true garbage game than we play... but, not an astounding number. Also, they play a lot of tough teams.


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Re: USU O/U 7.5 wins

Post by YoungBloodAggie » June 1st, 2018, 8:33 am

East Carolina has really fallen off the last few years. They have gone 11-25 over the past three years. They are projected to be very bad again this year.


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Re: USU O/U 7.5 wins

Post by thegreendalegelf » June 1st, 2018, 9:31 am

ECU, San Jose State, and Hawaii are all garbage teams. Thier projected S&P+ for 2018 and their final S&P+ for 2017 are 125/123, 129/129, and 122/121, respectively (out of 130). There is also a 5 season running ranking (2013-2017) in which they finish 87, 111, and 114. USU is 52, BYU is 39, Utah is 29, and Boise is 27. ECU, SJSU, Hawaii, and even NMSU are scheduled wins but due to the fall of BYU-P, they aren't as safe of wins anymore.



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Re: USU O/U 7.5 wins

Post by BLUERUFiO » June 1st, 2018, 10:18 am

But, you can’t count the MWC teams for the “astounding number of garbage games” because we play those same teams. Astounding in this usage implies way more than normal. Perhaps a SEC or PAC-12 team would argue that all these MWC games are garbage... but, it’s a little crazy for us to argue that because we are MWC and play those same teams. We should be saying they are sometimes OK teams lol.

To me, the alternative is to admit that we play a lot of garbage teams too, but, without playing as many P5 games as BYU does (4 in 2017 and 4 in 2018 compared to our 2 in 2017 and 1 in 2018).

p.s. I wish BYU would just get rid of their athletic program.


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