S&P+ Rankings Released

This forum is for Football related topics only. Other topics will be moved to the appropriate forum.
YoungBloodAggie
Posts: 2253
Joined: October 1st, 2013, 9:11 am
Has liked: 30 times
Been liked: 183 times

S&P+ Rankings Released

Post by YoungBloodAggie » February 11th, 2019, 1:32 pm

Bill Connelly has released his 2019 pre-season S&P+ rankings, linked here: https://www.sbnation.com/college-footba ... rojections

Here is how our schedule stacks up, sorted by ranking:

#4 LSU
#24 Boise State
#42 UTAH STATE
#50 BYU
#51 Fresno State
#54 San Diego State
#62 Wake Forest
#83 Nevada
#90 Air Force
#92 Wyoming
#109 Colorado State
#115 New Mexico
Unranked - Stony Brook

Three observations:
1. We are, as of this moment, better than most of our competition based on what is perhaps the best analytics system in college football.
2. The schedule is much tougher this year, despite our division rivals' attempts to weaken it. I mean goodness gracious CSU.
3. If you don't buy season tickets this year you are officially a weenie.


Jordan Nathan’s ACTUAL #1 Fan

User avatar
ChicAggie
Posts: 2534
Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 1:18 pm
Location: Chicago
Has liked: 202 times
Been liked: 224 times

Re: S&P+ Rankings Released

Post by ChicAggie » February 11th, 2019, 1:54 pm

YoungBloodAggie wrote:
February 11th, 2019, 1:32 pm
We are, as of this moment, better than most of our competition based on what is perhaps the best analytics system in college football.
Interesting, but I question how accurate even "the best analytics system in college football" can be at this stage of the year. When I say "question," that's all I really mean: does S&P+ have a strong track record of being accurate when projecting an upcoming college football season in early February? Seems unlikely, but who knows?


"Good is the enemy of great.” ~ Jim Collins

jpswensen
Posts: 1357
Joined: November 17th, 2010, 6:59 pm
Location: Pullman, WA
Has liked: 64 times
Been liked: 122 times
Contact:

Re: S&P+ Rankings Released

Post by jpswensen » February 11th, 2019, 1:54 pm

It stinks to have a 100% drop from our place at 21 in the final 2018 S&P (https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa) to 42 now.


"Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent" Salvor Hardin - Foundation (Asimov)

NVAggie
Posts: 15142
Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 8:09 am
Location: Where the sagebrush grows!
Has liked: 259 times
Been liked: 249 times

Re: S&P+ Rankings Released

Post by NVAggie » February 11th, 2019, 2:10 pm

Does this system adjust for recruiting ranking issues like the ones we deal with at USU?



YoungBloodAggie
Posts: 2253
Joined: October 1st, 2013, 9:11 am
Has liked: 30 times
Been liked: 183 times

Re: S&P+ Rankings Released

Post by YoungBloodAggie » February 11th, 2019, 2:13 pm

NVAggie wrote:
February 11th, 2019, 2:10 pm
Does this system adjust for recruiting ranking issues like the ones we deal with at USU?
What are the ranking issues we face at USU?


Jordan Nathan’s ACTUAL #1 Fan

NVAggie
Posts: 15142
Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 8:09 am
Location: Where the sagebrush grows!
Has liked: 259 times
Been liked: 249 times

Re: S&P+ Rankings Released

Post by NVAggie » February 11th, 2019, 2:18 pm

Ask aggie22 about this. Having mission kids affects our recruiting numbers.



YoungBloodAggie
Posts: 2253
Joined: October 1st, 2013, 9:11 am
Has liked: 30 times
Been liked: 183 times

Re: S&P+ Rankings Released

Post by YoungBloodAggie » February 11th, 2019, 2:23 pm

NVAggie wrote:
February 11th, 2019, 2:18 pm
Ask aggie22 about this. Having mission kids affects our recruiting numbers.
You can read about Connelly's system at SBNation, but I would say that he is not adjusting for kids that are not going to be here next year. He uses a five-year weighted average. You can see from the link that our recruiting success is actually what is pulling us down most in the rankings. So, if you believe like I do that we actually outperform our recruiting rankings...we are actually undervalued at 42.


Jordan Nathan’s ACTUAL #1 Fan

User avatar
RigAggie
Posts: 769
Joined: September 27th, 2011, 3:21 pm
Has liked: 7 times
Been liked: 13 times

Re: S&P+ Rankings Released

Post by RigAggie » February 11th, 2019, 2:28 pm

I am disappointed in our drop, but man, look at how far Fresno State has fallen. They are ranked after BYU!
These users liked this post from RigAggie:
YoungBloodAggie



User avatar
BigBlueDart
2017 FB Predict The Score Champion
Posts: 7724
Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 7:57 am
Location: Syracuse, UT
Has liked: 20 times
Been liked: 87 times

Re: S&P+ Rankings Released

Post by BigBlueDart » February 11th, 2019, 2:32 pm

ChicAggie wrote:
February 11th, 2019, 1:54 pm
YoungBloodAggie wrote:
February 11th, 2019, 1:32 pm
We are, as of this moment, better than most of our competition based on what is perhaps the best analytics system in college football.
Interesting, but I question how accurate even "the best analytics system in college football" can be at this stage of the year. When I say "question," that's all I really mean: does S&P+ have a strong track record of being accurate when projecting an upcoming college football season in early February? Seems unlikely, but who knows?
I wasn't sure, so I took a look at previous preseason vs final rankings:

Year - Pre-season -> Final
2018 - 77 -> 21
2017 - 73 -> 83
2016 - 73 -> 86
2015 - 59 -> 76
2014 - 69 -> 52

This is just a few years, and it's just us, but I'd say that pre-season rankings can be a bit off at times. Only time will tell.



NVAggie
Posts: 15142
Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 8:09 am
Location: Where the sagebrush grows!
Has liked: 259 times
Been liked: 249 times

Re: S&P+ Rankings Released

Post by NVAggie » February 11th, 2019, 2:33 pm

YoungBloodAggie wrote:
February 11th, 2019, 2:23 pm
NVAggie wrote:
February 11th, 2019, 2:18 pm
Ask aggie22 about this. Having mission kids affects our recruiting numbers.
You can read about Connelly's system at SBNation, but I would say that he is not adjusting for kids that are not going to be here next year. He uses a five-year weighted average. You can see from the link that our recruiting success is actually what is pulling us down most in the rankings. So, if you believe like I do that we actually outperform our recruiting rankings...we are actually undervalued at 42.
I guess that is my point in all of this. I read the details of his rating system. I would doubt that his rating takes the mission kids into account. We are probably undervalued as you indicated.
These users liked this post from NVAggie:
YoungBloodAggie



User avatar
ChicAggie
Posts: 2534
Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 1:18 pm
Location: Chicago
Has liked: 202 times
Been liked: 224 times

Re: S&P+ Rankings Released

Post by ChicAggie » February 11th, 2019, 3:18 pm

Will Vegas take bets on actual performance versus S&P+ predictive rankings? I'd put $1,000 on the Aggies being better than #42 at the end of the 2019-20 season. Granted, the tougher schedule could knock us down a peg, but I like our chances.


"Good is the enemy of great.” ~ Jim Collins

User avatar
ChicAggie
Posts: 2534
Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 1:18 pm
Location: Chicago
Has liked: 202 times
Been liked: 224 times

Re: S&P+ Rankings Released

Post by ChicAggie » February 11th, 2019, 3:20 pm

Even if we are "undervalued," the predictive rankings still suggest we will be favored in 10 games and a dog in only 2. So we should finish 10-2. Not too shabby.
These users liked this post from ChicAggie:
thegreendalegelf


"Good is the enemy of great.” ~ Jim Collins

User avatar
thegreendalegelf
Posts: 439
Joined: August 18th, 2017, 3:26 pm
Has liked: 113 times
Been liked: 19 times

Re: S&P+ Rankings Released

Post by thegreendalegelf » February 11th, 2019, 3:46 pm

It would likely have us 9-3. The ranking is based on your expected margin of victory over a perfectly average team.

Boise is +12.6
USU is +7.6
BYU-P is +5.7
Fresno State is +5.5
SDSU is +4.9
Wake is +3.1

The home team is spotted +2.5 in a game.
So Boise would be +2.5 at USU
We would be +4.4 against BYU-P
Frenso would be +0.4 against us
We would be +0.2 at SDSU
We would be +2.1 at Wake Forest



YoungBloodAggie
Posts: 2253
Joined: October 1st, 2013, 9:11 am
Has liked: 30 times
Been liked: 183 times

Re: S&P+ Rankings Released

Post by YoungBloodAggie » February 11th, 2019, 4:22 pm

For those unfamiliar with how Connelly conducts his business, he will have an update of these rankings at the end of the summer to reflect additional movements to team rosters. He has also historically tweaked his ratings to try to align more closely with predictive variables, so there may be some slight changes to the formula.

At any rate, #42 is a pretty darn good place to be considering that our recruiting rankings often do not reflect the quality of player that we get into the program.


Jordan Nathan’s ACTUAL #1 Fan

SpectrumMagic
Posts: 455
Joined: November 8th, 2010, 7:57 pm
Has liked: 49 times
Been liked: 20 times

Re: S&P+ Rankings Released

Post by SpectrumMagic » February 11th, 2019, 8:22 pm

Maybe this has been asked but why are we @ SDSU again? Last time we played them wasn’t it @ their place. Have they come to Logan since we’ve been in MWC??



YoungBloodAggie
Posts: 2253
Joined: October 1st, 2013, 9:11 am
Has liked: 30 times
Been liked: 183 times

Re: S&P+ Rankings Released

Post by YoungBloodAggie » February 11th, 2019, 8:40 pm

SpectrumMagic wrote:
February 11th, 2019, 8:22 pm
Maybe this has been asked but why are we @ SDSU again? Last time we played them wasn’t it @ their place. Have they come to Logan since we’ve been in MWC??
Yes, and we don't talk about it.


Jordan Nathan’s ACTUAL #1 Fan

SpectrumMagic
Posts: 455
Joined: November 8th, 2010, 7:57 pm
Has liked: 49 times
Been liked: 20 times

Re: S&P+ Rankings Released

Post by SpectrumMagic » February 11th, 2019, 9:26 pm

YoungBloodAggie wrote:
February 11th, 2019, 8:40 pm
SpectrumMagic wrote:
February 11th, 2019, 8:22 pm
Maybe this has been asked but why are we @ SDSU again? Last time we played them wasn’t it @ their place. Have they come to Logan since we’ve been in MWC??
Yes, and we don't talk about it.
Hmm interesting scheduling. Also @ Fresno again wasn’t the last time they were in Logan when Riley Nelson was QB? So I would expect MW to have both these schools to not get return trips for 6 years or more?



QuackAttackAggie
2015 & 2017 Weekly Pick'em Champion
Posts: 15266
Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 12:08 pm
Location: 서울
Has liked: 27 times
Been liked: 189 times

Re: S&P+ Rankings Released

Post by QuackAttackAggie » February 11th, 2019, 10:27 pm

SpectrumMagic wrote:
February 11th, 2019, 9:26 pm
YoungBloodAggie wrote:
February 11th, 2019, 8:40 pm
SpectrumMagic wrote:
February 11th, 2019, 8:22 pm
Maybe this has been asked but why are we @ SDSU again? Last time we played them wasn’t it @ their place. Have they come to Logan since we’ve been in MWC??
Yes, and we don't talk about it.
Hmm interesting scheduling. Also @ Fresno again wasn’t the last time they were in Logan when Riley Nelson was QB? So I would expect MW to have both these schools to not get return trips for 6 years or more?
sdsu and fsu were both in logan just two seasons ago.



SpectrumMagic
Posts: 455
Joined: November 8th, 2010, 7:57 pm
Has liked: 49 times
Been liked: 20 times

Re: S&P+ Rankings Released

Post by SpectrumMagic » February 11th, 2019, 10:41 pm

QuackAttackAggie wrote:
February 11th, 2019, 10:27 pm
SpectrumMagic wrote:
February 11th, 2019, 9:26 pm
YoungBloodAggie wrote:
February 11th, 2019, 8:40 pm
SpectrumMagic wrote:
February 11th, 2019, 8:22 pm
Maybe this has been asked but why are we @ SDSU again? Last time we played them wasn’t it @ their place. Have they come to Logan since we’ve been in MWC??
Yes, and we don't talk about it.
Hmm interesting scheduling. Also @ Fresno again wasn’t the last time they were in Logan when Riley Nelson was QB? So I would expect MW to have both these schools to not get return trips for 6 years or more?
sdsu and fsu were both in logan just two seasons ago.
My bad guess I missed that



User avatar
WAaggieFan
Posts: 3088
Joined: June 27th, 2013, 9:02 pm
Location: Wenatchee, WA
Has liked: 2 times
Been liked: 19 times

Re: S&P+ Rankings Released

Post by WAaggieFan » February 12th, 2019, 7:39 am

YoungBloodAggie wrote:
SpectrumMagic wrote:
February 11th, 2019, 8:22 pm
Maybe this has been asked but why are we @ SDSU again? Last time we played them wasn’t it @ their place. Have they come to Logan since we’ve been in MWC??
Yes, and we don't talk about it.
I’m still trying to dry out....


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



User avatar
paaron46
Posts: 1094
Joined: February 28th, 2014, 11:52 am
Location: Section 5, Row 7
Has liked: 0
Been liked: 5 times

Re: S&P+ Rankings Released

Post by paaron46 » February 12th, 2019, 8:46 am

SpectrumMagic wrote:
February 11th, 2019, 10:41 pm
QuackAttackAggie wrote:
February 11th, 2019, 10:27 pm
SpectrumMagic wrote:
February 11th, 2019, 9:26 pm
YoungBloodAggie wrote:
February 11th, 2019, 8:40 pm
SpectrumMagic wrote:
February 11th, 2019, 8:22 pm
Maybe this has been asked but why are we @ SDSU again? Last time we played them wasn’t it @ their place. Have they come to Logan since we’ve been in MWC??
Yes, and we don't talk about it.
Hmm interesting scheduling. Also @ Fresno again wasn’t the last time they were in Logan when Riley Nelson was QB? So I would expect MW to have both these schools to not get return trips for 6 years or more?
sdsu and fsu were both in logan just two seasons ago.
My bad guess I missed that
Yeah. I distinctly remember Donnel Pumphrey yelling "They can't stop me! They can't stop me!" from the sidelines.

...and he was right....

(223 yards)


Twitter: @AaronPeck

Madmartigan
Posts: 2556
Joined: November 19th, 2010, 11:30 pm
Has liked: 80 times
Been liked: 103 times

Re: S&P+ Rankings Released

Post by Madmartigan » February 12th, 2019, 9:13 am

WAaggieFan wrote:
February 12th, 2019, 7:39 am
YoungBloodAggie wrote:
SpectrumMagic wrote:
February 11th, 2019, 8:22 pm
Maybe this has been asked but why are we @ SDSU again? Last time we played them wasn’t it @ their place. Have they come to Logan since we’ve been in MWC??
Yes, and we don't talk about it.
I’m still trying to dry out....


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
That's the most I've ever seen it rain continuously in Logan.



Full
Posts: 1620
Joined: April 27th, 2011, 11:07 am
Location: Davis County
Has liked: 46 times
Been liked: 28 times

Re: S&P+ Rankings Released

Post by Full » February 12th, 2019, 10:49 am

Madmartigan wrote:
WAaggieFan wrote:
February 12th, 2019, 7:39 am
I’m still trying to dry out....
That's the most I've ever seen it rain continuously in Logan.
The Hawaii game around 2010 was the worst game I ever went to as far as amount. It could have been that the person with my poncho was running late and made it to the stadium shortly after the second half was underway. Well after I was soaked and frozen.



User avatar
JSHarvey
Posts: 1646
Joined: April 2nd, 2013, 12:45 pm
Location: Sandy, UT
Has liked: 181 times
Been liked: 29 times

Re: S&P+ Rankings Released

Post by JSHarvey » February 12th, 2019, 11:09 am

SpectrumMagic wrote:
February 11th, 2019, 10:41 pm
QuackAttackAggie wrote:
February 11th, 2019, 10:27 pm
SpectrumMagic wrote:
February 11th, 2019, 9:26 pm
YoungBloodAggie wrote:
February 11th, 2019, 8:40 pm
SpectrumMagic wrote:
February 11th, 2019, 8:22 pm
Maybe this has been asked but why are we @ SDSU again? Last time we played them wasn’t it @ their place. Have they come to Logan since we’ve been in MWC??
Yes, and we don't talk about it.
Hmm interesting scheduling. Also @ Fresno again wasn’t the last time they were in Logan when Riley Nelson was QB? So I would expect MW to have both these schools to not get return trips for 6 years or more?
sdsu and fsu were both in logan just two seasons ago.
My bad guess I missed that
We just rotate through half of the Pacific Division every two years (one home game and one road game for each team, then rotate to the other half of the teams and repeat).


"The purpose of education is not to validate ignorance but to overcome it." Lawrence Krauss

"Thinking is the hardest work there is, that's why so few people do it!" Henry Ford

User avatar
ChicAggie
Posts: 2534
Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 1:18 pm
Location: Chicago
Has liked: 202 times
Been liked: 224 times

Re: S&P+ Rankings Released

Post by ChicAggie » February 12th, 2019, 11:30 am

Madmartigan wrote:
February 12th, 2019, 9:13 am
WAaggieFan wrote:
February 12th, 2019, 7:39 am
YoungBloodAggie wrote:
SpectrumMagic wrote:
February 11th, 2019, 8:22 pm
Maybe this has been asked but why are we @ SDSU again? Last time we played them wasn’t it @ their place. Have they come to Logan since we’ve been in MWC??
Yes, and we don't talk about it.
I’m still trying to dry out....
That's the most I've ever seen it rain continuously in Logan.
I thought he meant that game drove him to drink, and he still hasn't recovered.
These users liked this post from ChicAggie. Total Likes: 2
sam tingeythegreendalegelf


"Good is the enemy of great.” ~ Jim Collins

Locked Previous topicNext topic