Calling It: LSU by 17; 40-23

USU78 · Post by **USU78** » September 30th, 2019, 11:35 am

First what others are saying:

Sagarin: LSU -17.07
VegasInsider: LSU -26 (opened LSU -25)/70.5 O/U (opened 67.50) 48-22

What my analysis says: LSU wins by 4.30: 34.65 - 30.35

My thoughts: I think Vegas is overexuberant, and my analysis doesn't take LSU's points from turnovers seriously enough. I'm tending to trust Sagarin on this one, along with LSU's average points allowed.

LSU wins 40-23

NavyBlueAggie · Post by **NavyBlueAggie** » September 30th, 2019, 1:40 pm

A score of 40-23 would give us a bit of confidence and a lot of experience going into the remainder of the 2019 season. I don't believe in moral victories, but I do understand how a player can learn from a better opposing athlete.

frankiesaysrelax · Post by **frankiesaysrelax** » September 30th, 2019, 2:46 pm

Would you be able to match your past predictions up with actual results this season? I'm curious to see how close these turn out.

USU78 · Post by **USU78** » September 30th, 2019, 3:13 pm

Well, Frankie, I picked USU over Wake by 4, and the line was Wake -3. Vegas was smarter than me on that one. I picked USU over CSU by 15 (essentially a CSU cover, since the line was USU -22), so I was ever so close. The money would've been good. I can't remember how I called the SDS game. I know I picked us winning a close one, so there you are.

No, I haven't gone back and checked for many years. Back when I started looking at things this way, the early '90s, I was probably right in picking the outcome 85+% of the time. Don't know if that's all that good or not. I'm usually in the ballpark on picking the score, but rarely spot on.

72AgGrad · Post by **72AgGrad** » September 30th, 2019, 3:32 pm

Like NavyBlue, I'm no fan of "moral victories", but if we can stay within 17 of LSU I will be a relatively happy camper.

frankiesaysrelax · Post by **frankiesaysrelax** » September 30th, 2019, 4:42 pm

USU78 wrote: ↑
September 30th, 2019, 3:13 pm
Well, Frankie, I picked USU over Wake by 4, and the line was Wake -3. Vegas was smarter than me on that one. I picked USU over CSU by 15 (essentially a CSU cover, since the line was USU -22), so I was ever so close. The money would've been good. I can't remember how I called the SDS game. I know I picked us winning a close one, so there you are.

No, I haven't gone back and checked for many years. Back when I started looking at things this way, the early '90s, I was probably right in picking the outcome 85+% of the time. Don't know if that's all that good or not. I'm usually in the ballpark on picking the score, but rarely spot on.

I have always trusted your picks over oddsharks and some of those other computer picks i've seen online. Hard to call anything perfect and the wake game really should have gone differently if a few calls go our way or Wake get called for anything, but you seem to have a good idea and no real biases in your figures.

Machismo · Post by **Machismo** » September 30th, 2019, 5:43 pm

frankiesaysrelax wrote: ↑
September 30th, 2019, 4:42 pm

USU78 wrote: ↑
September 30th, 2019, 3:13 pm
Well, Frankie, I picked USU over Wake by 4, and the line was Wake -3. Vegas was smarter than me on that one. I picked USU over CSU by 15 (essentially a CSU cover, since the line was USU -22), so I was ever so close. The money would've been good. I can't remember how I called the SDS game. I know I picked us winning a close one, so there you are.

No, I haven't gone back and checked for many years. Back when I started looking at things this way, the early '90s, I was probably right in picking the outcome 85+% of the time. Don't know if that's all that good or not. I'm usually in the ballpark on picking the score, but rarely spot on.
I have always trusted your picks over oddsharks and some of those other computer picks i've seen online. Hard to call anything perfect and the wake game really should have gone differently if a few calls go our way or Wake get called for anything, but you seem to have a good idea and no real biases in your figures.

78's formula has been pretty accurate and I enjoy the weekly posting of the call.
I have to say every time I see one if your posts I think of this , BTW I always liked the song.

frankiesaysrelax · Post by **frankiesaysrelax** » September 30th, 2019, 5:59 pm

That is what it is from. Some guy in Wedding Singer or some Adam Sandler movie is wearing a shirt that says it and I must have just rewatched that movie when I made user name or something.

frankiesaysrelax · Post by **frankiesaysrelax** » September 30th, 2019, 6:02 pm

Machismo · Post by **Machismo** » September 30th, 2019, 6:10 pm

frankiesaysrelax wrote: ↑
September 30th, 2019, 6:02 pm

Oh yeah I like that show I can relate to it since I was a teenager during the 80's.
During that scene this song was on the radio in the Kitchen.

Aggie in Boise · Post by **Aggie in Boise** » September 30th, 2019, 6:49 pm

NavyBlueAggie wrote: ↑
September 30th, 2019, 1:40 pm
A score of 40-23 would give us a bit of confidence and a lot of experience going into the remainder of the 2019 season. I don't believe in moral victories, but I do understand how a player can learn from a better opposing athlete.

^ This!

LSU players are going to learn a lot.

utaggies · Post by **utaggies** » October 5th, 2019, 4:24 pm

USU78 wrote: ↑
September 30th, 2019, 11:35 am
First what others are saying:

Sagarin: LSU -17.07
VegasInsider: LSU -26 (opened LSU -25)/70.5 O/U (opened 67.50) 48-22

What my analysis says: LSU wins by 4.30: 34.65 - 30.35

My thoughts: I think Vegas is overexuberant, and my analysis doesn't take LSU's points from turnovers seriously enough. I'm tending to trust Sagarin on this one, along with LSU's average points allowed.

LSU wins 40-23

You shorted LSU by 2 points and longed us by 17. I hope you didn’t bet the farm on this.

USU78 · Post by **USU78** » October 5th, 2019, 4:55 pm

Of course I didn't. It's so hard to call games involving top five teams against merely good teams.

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