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Espn FPI
- Aglicious
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Re: Espn FPI
704 days and counting. They are truly awful. The were picked pre-season to be last in the PAC-12 and I didn't see anything in watching the replay of their opening game that would lead me to believe that they will finish anywhere but dead last.slcagg wrote: ↑September 7th, 2021, 11:59 amWhen was the last time Arizona won a game?3rdGenAggie wrote: ↑September 7th, 2021, 11:53 amI'm not convinced BYU is really that great. It'll still be a tough game, and an upset if we win, but is beating Arizona in Vegas that much better than beating Washington State on the road?
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Re: Espn FPI
Basically it looks like USU's win over Washington State in Pullman is more impressive than BYU's win over Arizona on a neutral field.
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Re: Espn FPI
I took screen shots of the ESPN FPI for each USU game before the season started.
at WSU: 15.7%
vs North Dakota: 85.5%
at Air Force: 22.6%
vs Boise: 26.5%
vs BYU: 12.1%
at UNLV: 50.9%
vs CSU: 48.2%
vs Hawaii: 53.9%
at NMSU: 77.3%
at San Jose: 26%
vs Wyoming: 33.9%
at New Mexico: 41.5%
at WSU: 15.7%
vs North Dakota: 85.5%
at Air Force: 22.6%
vs Boise: 26.5%
vs BYU: 12.1%
at UNLV: 50.9%
vs CSU: 48.2%
vs Hawaii: 53.9%
at NMSU: 77.3%
at San Jose: 26%
vs Wyoming: 33.9%
at New Mexico: 41.5%
slcagg wrote: ↑September 5th, 2021, 12:58 pmGames played: usu 26-Washington state 23 (1-0)
Games to be played:
Vs North Dakota: 84.5% (2-0)
At Air Force: 42.4% (2-1)
Vs Boise: 25.7% (2-2)
Vs BYU: 18.8% (2-3)
At unlv: 58.7% (3-3)
Vs Colorado state: 64.5% (4-3)
Vs hawaii: 70.1% (5-3)
At New Mexico State: 85.8% (6-3)
At San Jose: 27.6% (6-4)
Vs Wyoming: 45.6% (6-5)
At New Mexico: 60.7% (7-5)
What say you guys? I could see us beating Wyoming and possibly beating Air Force as well. We also have a better than a 18.8 chance of beating BYU.
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Re: Espn FPI
If you want to use advanced analytics ratings systems, it's better to go with a probabilistic win total than a deterministic one. FPI, for instance, projects us at about 6.9 wins.slcagg wrote: ↑September 5th, 2021, 12:58 pmGames played: usu 26-Washington state 23 (1-0)
Games to be played:
Vs North Dakota: 84.5% (2-0)
At Air Force: 42.4% (2-1)
Vs Boise: 25.7% (2-2)
Vs BYU: 18.8% (2-3)
At unlv: 58.7% (3-3)
Vs Colorado state: 64.5% (4-3)
Vs hawaii: 70.1% (5-3)
At New Mexico State: 85.8% (6-3)
At San Jose: 27.6% (6-4)
Vs Wyoming: 45.6% (6-5)
At New Mexico: 60.7% (7-5)
What say you guys? I could see us beating Wyoming and possibly beating Air Force as well. We also have a better than a 18.8 chance of beating BYU.
First of all, nice. Secondly, I think this is a pretty fair assumption after only one week of games. It will be much more honed in after three or four weeks.
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Re: Espn FPI
I’ve been tracking this though three weeks. The totals have been 4.94 before week 0 5.67 after week zero and 7.64 after week 1.
Washington State 100.00%
North Dakota 88.4%
Air Force 51.5%
Boise State 33.4%
BYU 28.3%
UNLV 67.2%
Colorado State 72.4%
Hawaii 75.7%
New Mexico State 87.1%
San Jose State 35.8%
Wyoming 54.9%
New Mexico 69.0%
Washington State 100.00%
North Dakota 88.4%
Air Force 51.5%
Boise State 33.4%
BYU 28.3%
UNLV 67.2%
Colorado State 72.4%
Hawaii 75.7%
New Mexico State 87.1%
San Jose State 35.8%
Wyoming 54.9%
New Mexico 69.0%
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Re: Espn FPI
Sagarin has Washington State rated above us as well. Sagarin's rating don't really have any real meaning until the teams are "connected" - but he basically currently has USU, BYU, and Washington State statistically even.USU78 wrote: ↑September 7th, 2021, 11:59 amSagarin would argue that point with you.3rdGenAggie wrote: ↑September 7th, 2021, 11:53 amI'm not convinced BYU is really that great. It'll still be a tough game, and an upset if we win, but is beating Arizona in Vegas that much better than beating Washington State on the road?
74 Washington State A = 70.28 0 1 65.49( 97) 0 0 | 0 0 | 70.78 73 | 62.95 78 | 65.43 70 PAC-12-N
79 BYU A = 69.49 1 0 64.94( 98) 0 0 | 0 0 | 68.37 81 | 64.46 70 | 63.09 84 I-A IND.
86 Utah State A = 67.87 1 0 72.66( 57) 0 0 | 0 0 | 67.56 90 | 62.15 86 | 61.10 94 MWC-MTN
At this point we need to just keep a winning streak going as we move through the schedule.
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Re: Espn FPI
Lest we get too heady based on our 2-0 start against a FCS team and what is likely the second-worst PAC12 team, Jerry Palms’ early bowl picks may provide a reality check. He predicts 9 MWC teams to be in bowls. Those not picked? UNLV, CSU, and USU. In no alternative universe do I see New Mexico and Hawaii getting bowl invites before USU. But there is an alternate reality beyond the walls of this message board.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-footb ... edictions/
https://www.cbssports.com/college-footb ... edictions/
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Re: Espn FPI
Anyone predicting we lose to New Mexico and Hawaii has to be the dumbest $hit I've heard today BUT it's early so we'll see.utaggies wrote: ↑September 13th, 2021, 8:23 amLest we get too heady based on our 2-0 start against a FCS team and what is likely the second-worst PAC12 team, Jerry Palms’ early bowl picks may provide a reality check. He predicts 9 MWC teams to be in bowls. Those not picked? UNLV, CSU, and USU. In no alternative universe do I see New Mexico and Hawaii getting bowl invites before USU. But there is an alternate reality beyond the walls of this message board.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-footb ... edictions/
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Re: Espn FPI
Where some teams win others lose. It's a good year for the MWC and the number of bowls hasn't changed that I'm aware of.utaggies wrote: ↑September 13th, 2021, 8:23 amJerry Palms’ early bowl picks may provide a reality check. He predicts 9 MWC teams to be in bowls.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-footb ... edictions/
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Re: Espn FPI
I don’t know many things, but I do know that UNM will not be bowl eligible.aggies22 wrote: ↑September 13th, 2021, 8:49 amAnyone predicting we lose to New Mexico and Hawaii has to be the dumbest $hit I've heard today BUT it's early so we'll see.utaggies wrote: ↑September 13th, 2021, 8:23 amLest we get too heady based on our 2-0 start against a FCS team and what is likely the second-worst PAC12 team, Jerry Palms’ early bowl picks may provide a reality check. He predicts 9 MWC teams to be in bowls. Those not picked? UNLV, CSU, and USU. In no alternative universe do I see New Mexico and Hawaii getting bowl invites before USU. But there is an alternate reality beyond the walls of this message board.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-footb ... edictions/
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Re: Espn FPI
Yeah, Jerry Palm and his bad lego hair has been awful with both his basketball and football picks.
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Re: Espn FPI
I don't see us going a paltry 3-7 (or worse) in our remaining 10 games. I'm thinking 6-6 is our floor now, with a real chance at 8+ wins, especially if we can beat AF this week.
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Re: Espn FPI
I know the transitive property does not work (look at how Stanford played against USC this week versus their game against K-State). That being said i am fairly confident that we will beat CSU, HAW, UNLV, UNM and NMSU. We certainly could lose some of those, but based on how we are playing the first 2 games I think realistic expectations are 7-5. Not knowing injuries I would guess 6-6 to be the current floor based on how teams are playing.
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Re: Espn FPI
As for the probabilistic method, we are up to 7.9 - 4.1. That's a big week over week improvement from 6.9 - 5.1. I think we will start to see smaller and smaller shifts from here on out.
I will admit that I was in the party that thought 5-7 was our ceiling for this year. Happy to be wrong and hopefully we are headed for a good year (7-8 wins).
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Re: Espn FPI
At this point I'll be happy with 6 as long as we get a bowl. Anything 8 or over would be an incredible accomplishment for this staff and team considering where we were when BA was hired.
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Re: Espn FPI
Thanks for bringing in that method!YoungBloodAggie wrote: ↑September 13th, 2021, 10:54 amAs for the probabilistic method, we are up to 7.9 - 4.1. That's a big week over week improvement from 6.9 - 5.1. I think we will start to see smaller and smaller shifts from here on out.
I will admit that I was in the party that thought 5-7 was our ceiling for this year. Happy to be wrong and hopefully we are headed for a good year (7-8 wins).
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Re: Espn FPI
Can you explain what to 7.9 - 4.1 means? I am drawing a blank on what that exactly entails.YoungBloodAggie wrote: ↑September 13th, 2021, 10:54 amAs for the probabilistic method, we are up to 7.9 - 4.1. That's a big week over week improvement from 6.9 - 5.1. I think we will start to see smaller and smaller shifts from here on out.
I will admit that I was in the party that thought 5-7 was our ceiling for this year. Happy to be wrong and hopefully we are headed for a good year (7-8 wins).
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Re: Espn FPI
Yeah, it means that we are projected to win 7.9 games. You get this by adding up the total number of wins based on probabilities. So instead of marking up a loss against BYU and Boise, you add in .27 wins and .73 losses for each (approximately).Aggie84025 wrote: ↑September 13th, 2021, 11:53 amCan you explain what to 7.9 - 4.1 means? I am drawing a blank on what that exactly entails.YoungBloodAggie wrote: ↑September 13th, 2021, 10:54 amAs for the probabilistic method, we are up to 7.9 - 4.1. That's a big week over week improvement from 6.9 - 5.1. I think we will start to see smaller and smaller shifts from here on out.
I will admit that I was in the party that thought 5-7 was our ceiling for this year. Happy to be wrong and hopefully we are headed for a good year (7-8 wins).
This helps with close games (like AFA) which in a deterministic model are given an integer value. In reality, that game is worth .5 wins and .5 losses before it is played. That's why in the deterministic model we are looking at 9 wins and in the probabilistic model we are looking at 8 wins (when rounded).
An extreme of this would be if you were favored to win every game by 50.1%. In a deterministic model you would project going 12-0, whereas in a probabilistic model you would project to go 6-6.
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Re: Espn FPI
First post is updated with this weeks numbers. Moving down to 8-4 this week from 9-3 last week.
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Re: Espn FPI
I don’t think we win either of the next two games. Boise and Byu will both roll us by more than two touchdowns. However I think SJSU is a toss up and we roll over WYO with ease. I think we win 6 more, ending 9-3.
After last year though, I will be happy going .500
After last year though, I will be happy going .500
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Re: Espn FPI
Using the deterministic method, we've gone from 7.9 expected wins to 8.5 expected wins.
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