BBD Stats! BBD Stats! Wherefore art thou, BBD Stats! (Week 4 - Boise St)

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BBD Stats! BBD Stats! Wherefore art thou, BBD Stats! (Week 4 - Boise St)

Post by BigBlueDart » September 23rd, 2021, 12:24 pm

I hope you'll all excuse my hiatus last year. It honestly was not because of our dismal performance, but rather because of the oddities of the 2020 pandemic season that I opted not to do this last year. Nevertheless, BBD Stats is back!

First of all, keep in mind that it's still pretty early in the season, so there's more likelihood for some things to be skewed. That being said, I don't think our relative stats will surprise folks here, really. Our offense is efficient! Both the running game and passing game are outperforming what our opponents typically hold people to, not to mention the points. On the defensive side we are somewhat average at points allowed and the rushing game, but our Pass D is an obvious Achilles heel.

Boise St is a bit of an interesting animal so far this year. On the whole, both their O and D are somewhat average, but really that's just the average of very poor rushing (both O and D) and pretty good passing (both O and D). The big outlier is the scoring, though, where they are actually pretty good at for both O and D. I'm not always sure how to explain when the yards and the scores don't line up as expected, but it probably boils down to turnovers and field position (i.e. special teams). Those are some metrics that I will have to start tracking someday if I actually want to get serious about all this.

USU
Score O: 41.0 Avg; 24.8 Opp. D; 16.2 ppg better; 65.46%
Rush O: 206.3 Avg; 110.8 Opp. D; 95.5 ypg better; 86.25%
Pass O: 357.0 Avg; 264.3 Opp. D; 92.7 ypg better; 35.06%
Total O: 563.3 Avg; 375.1 Opp. D; 188.2 ypg better; 50.16%
Score D: 30.7 Avg; 31.2 Opp. O; 0.5 ppg better; 1.76%
Rush D: 217.0Avg; 214.2 Opp. O; -2.8 ypg worse; -1.29%
Pass D: 255.7 Avg; 196.8 Opp. O; -58.9 ypg worse; -29.93%
Total D: 472.7 Avg; 411.0 Opp. O; -61.7 ypg worse; -15.01%

Boise St
Score O: 35.0 Avg; 26.6 Opp. D; 8.4 ppg better; 31.79%
Rush O: 67.3 Avg; 104.7 Opp. D; -37.4 ypg worse; -35.70%
Pass O: 281.7 Avg; 250.1 Opp. D; 31.6 ypg better; 12.64%
Total O: 349.0 Avg; 354.8 Opp. D; -5.8 ypg worse; -1.63%
Score D: 23.3 Avg; 30.6 Opp. O; 7.2 ppg better; 23.65%
Rush D: 201.7 Avg; 179.3 Opp. O; -22.4 ypg worse; -12.49%
Pass D: 210.7 Avg; 233.9 Opp. O; 23.2 ypg better; 9.92%
Total D: 412.3 Avg; 413.2 Opp. O; 0.9 ypg better; 0.21%

And the official BBD BS prediction:
USU - 36.66 (262.97 rush, 318.57 pass, 581.54 total)
Boise St - 36.78 (124.85 rush, 313.92 pass, 438.77 total)
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Re: BBD Stats! BBD Stats! Wherefore art thou, BBD Stats! (Week 4 - Boise St)

Post by BigBlueDart » September 23rd, 2021, 12:28 pm

Here is where both teams rank in the various categories within the conference:

Score O: USU-1st; BSU-3rd
Rush O: USU-1st; BSU-11th
Pass O: USU-1st; BSU-6th
Total O: USU-1st; BSU-8th

Score D: USU-9th; BSU-4th
Rush D: USU-8th; BSU-12th
Pass D: USU-12th; BSU-5th
Total D: USU-12th; BSU-10th
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Re: BBD Stats! BBD Stats! Wherefore art thou, BBD Stats! (Week 4 - Boise St)

Post by AggieFBObsession » September 23rd, 2021, 12:28 pm

BigBlueDart wrote:
September 23rd, 2021, 12:24 pm
I'm not always sure how to explain when the yards and the scores don't line up as expected, but it probably boils down to turnovers and field position (i.e. special teams).
Boise State is one of the nation's leaders in turnover margin. That's essentially why. They almost won the game against Ok St on a fumble recovery for a TD.

Is there a way you can factor in turnovers?

Our our secondary is looking worse and worse and this stat analysis nails it in that regard.
Last edited by AggieFBObsession on September 23rd, 2021, 12:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.



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Re: BBD Stats! BBD Stats! Wherefore art thou, BBD Stats! (Week 4 - Boise St)

Post by thegreendalegelf » September 23rd, 2021, 12:29 pm

AggieFBObsession wrote:
September 23rd, 2021, 12:28 pm
BigBlueDart wrote:
September 23rd, 2021, 12:24 pm
I'm not always sure how to explain when the yards and the scores don't line up as expected, but it probably boils down to turnovers and field position (i.e. special teams).
Boise State is one of the nation's leaders in turnover margin. That's essentially why. They almost won the game against Ok St on a fumble recovery for a TD.

Is there a way you can factor in turnovers?
Their Pick 6 vs UCF was also the main thing that gave them momentum at the start.
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Re: BBD Stats! BBD Stats! Wherefore art thou, BBD Stats! (Week 4 - Boise St)

Post by BigBlueDart » September 23rd, 2021, 12:31 pm

And an overall ranking of the conference looks like this:

1. USU (+102.37%)
2. Wyoming (+94.64%)
3. Fresno St (+71.17%)
4. Boise St (+54.03%)
5. Colorado St (+49.32%)
6. SDSU (+36.95%)
7. Nevada (+28.48%)
8. Air Force (+10.75%)
9. SJSU (+9.80%)
10. Hawai'i (-2.34%)
11. New Mexico (-15.47%)
12. UNLV (-60.03%)
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Re: BBD Stats! BBD Stats! Wherefore art thou, BBD Stats! (Week 4 - Boise St)

Post by BigBlueDart » September 23rd, 2021, 12:32 pm

BigBlueDart wrote:
September 23rd, 2021, 12:31 pm
And an overall ranking of the conference looks like this:

1. USU (+102.37%)
2. Wyoming (+94.64%)
3. Fresno St (+71.17%)
4. Boise St (+54.03%)
5. Colorado St (+49.32%)
6. SDSU (+36.95%)
7. Nevada (+28.48%)
8. Air Force (+10.75%)
9. SJSU (+9.80%)
10. Hawai'i (-2.34%)
11. New Mexico (-15.47%)
12. UNLV (-60.03%)
FWIW, I really don't put much stock in this ranking. At least not at this point in the season.



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Re: BBD Stats! BBD Stats! Wherefore art thou, BBD Stats! (Week 4 - Boise St)

Post by AggieBlues » September 23rd, 2021, 1:31 pm

BigBlueDart wrote:
September 23rd, 2021, 12:32 pm
BigBlueDart wrote:
September 23rd, 2021, 12:31 pm
And an overall ranking of the conference looks like this:

1. USU (+102.37%)
2. Wyoming (+94.64%)
3. Fresno St (+71.17%)
4. Boise St (+54.03%)
5. Colorado St (+49.32%)
6. SDSU (+36.95%)
7. Nevada (+28.48%)
8. Air Force (+10.75%)
9. SJSU (+9.80%)
10. Hawai'i (-2.34%)
11. New Mexico (-15.47%)
12. UNLV (-60.03%)
FWIW, I really don't put much stock in this ranking. At least not at this point in the season.
FWINW, I expect this to be the final ranking at the end of the season! :rock:


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Re: BBD Stats! BBD Stats! Wherefore art thou, BBD Stats! (Week 4 - Boise St)

Post by JSHarvey » September 23rd, 2021, 1:56 pm

BigBlueDart wrote:
September 23rd, 2021, 12:24 pm
. . . .

And the official BBD BS prediction:
USU - 36.66 (262.97 rush, 318.57 pass, 581.54 total)
Boise St - 36.78 (124.85 rush, 313.92 pass, 438.77 total)
Thank you for putting these stats together!

Is this the closest BBD score prediction ever? It wouldn't surprise me if it was. :-)

Anyway I'm hoping we get a few really good stops when we need them, that we can keep up (pull ahead) on the turnover margin, and we capitalize on (almost) all of the scoring opportunities!

Go Aggies! :-)


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Re: BBD Stats! BBD Stats! Wherefore art thou, BBD Stats! (Week 4 - Boise St)

Post by AggieFBObsession » September 23rd, 2021, 2:29 pm

Given that Boise State has played the tougher schedule, they should win, and given these stats. BBD, are you taking into account home field advantage?



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Re: BBD Stats! BBD Stats! Wherefore art thou, BBD Stats! (Week 4 - Boise St)

Post by BigBlueDart » September 23rd, 2021, 2:32 pm

AggieFBObsession wrote:
September 23rd, 2021, 2:29 pm
Given that Boise State has played the tougher schedule, they should win, and given these stats. BBD, are you taking into account home field advantage?
The "BS Prediction" does not take into account home field advantage. The whole point of these stats, though, is that they do take difficulty of schedule played so far into account.
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Re: BBD Stats! BBD Stats! Wherefore art thou, BBD Stats! (Week 4 - Boise St)

Post by USU78 » September 23rd, 2021, 2:43 pm

BigBlueDart wrote:
September 23rd, 2021, 2:32 pm
AggieFBObsession wrote:
September 23rd, 2021, 2:29 pm
Given that Boise State has played the tougher schedule, they should win, and given these stats. BBD, are you taking into account home field advantage?
The "BS Prediction" does not take into account home field advantage. The whole point of these stats, though, is that they do take difficulty of schedule played so far into account.
Yes! It's how you performed vis-a-vis how your opponents perform against whoever they're playing. If Boazy, for example, outrushes the average allowed by Okie St and whoever the heck they played in weeks 1 and 2, then the amount they outperformed those teams' average yards rushing allowed is what gets compared to USU's applicable stats. It's a very well thought out system.


You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

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Re: BBD Stats! BBD Stats! Wherefore art thou, BBD Stats! (Week 4 - Boise St)

Post by AGNUMPI » September 23rd, 2021, 2:53 pm

BBD do you have the historical accuracy percentage of BBD stats?

Also, I would think BBD gets more accurate as the season progresses. Or is that not the case?

This is a small margin, and looks like it is basically our O vs their D as far as strengths go. If their O starts clicking we could be in trouble. I'm just hoping to not get blown out by BSU at home again, but I wouldn't be too discouraged as we've already done better than I expected this year.


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Re: BBD Stats! BBD Stats! Wherefore art thou, BBD Stats! (Week 4 - Boise St)

Post by BigBlueDart » September 23rd, 2021, 3:01 pm

AGNUMPI wrote:
September 23rd, 2021, 2:53 pm
BBD do you have the historical accuracy percentage of BBD stats?

Also, I would think BBD gets more accurate as the season progresses. Or is that not the case?

This is a small margin, and looks like it is basically our O vs their D as far as strengths go. If their O starts clicking we could be in trouble. I'm just hoping to not get blown out by BSU at home again, but I wouldn't be too discouraged as we've already done better than I expected this year.
I've never really tracked my predictions vs results much. I don't put a lot of stock in the prediction. It's got some reasoning behind how it works, but when I get close to a result it's more likely dumb luck. The table of stats before the prediction is what is more useful just to provide some more perspective on teams' performance. These stats (and supposedly the predictions) should theoretically get more accurate later in the season as there is more data going into it, but there's no accounting for injuries, changes in team dynamic or morale, and any other of the more intangible factors. The whole "any given Saturday" thing is truly a big aspect, too. You can try to predict an outcome, but anything can happen once the players hit the gridiron!
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Re: BBD Stats! BBD Stats! Wherefore art thou, BBD Stats! (Week 4 - Boise St)

Post by AGNUMPI » September 23rd, 2021, 3:52 pm

BigBlueDart wrote:
September 23rd, 2021, 3:01 pm
AGNUMPI wrote:
September 23rd, 2021, 2:53 pm
BBD do you have the historical accuracy percentage of BBD stats?

Also, I would think BBD gets more accurate as the season progresses. Or is that not the case?

This is a small margin, and looks like it is basically our O vs their D as far as strengths go. If their O starts clicking we could be in trouble. I'm just hoping to not get blown out by BSU at home again, but I wouldn't be too discouraged as we've already done better than I expected this year.
I've never really tracked my predictions vs results much. I don't put a lot of stock in the prediction. It's got some reasoning behind how it works, but when I get close to a result it's more likely dumb luck. The table of stats before the prediction is what is more useful just to provide some more perspective on teams' performance. These stats (and supposedly the predictions) should theoretically get more accurate later in the season as there is more data going into it, but there's no accounting for injuries, changes in team dynamic or morale, and any other of the more intangible factors. The whole "any given Saturday" thing is truly a big aspect, too. You can try to predict an outcome, but anything can happen once the players hit the gridiron!
Even with all the intangibles I put a lot of stock in it as far as who wins and who loses, not necessarily the score, which is why I asked. Just wondering if it really is accurate or if I want to be and so I remember it that way. It seems like the games play out in line with stats as far as how well our O will do vs a specific D, and vice versa.


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Re: BBD Stats! BBD Stats! Wherefore art thou, BBD Stats! (Week 4 - Boise St)

Post by sam tingey » September 23rd, 2021, 9:28 pm

AGNUMPI wrote:
September 23rd, 2021, 2:53 pm
BBD do you have the historical accuracy percentage of BBD stats?

Also, I would think BBD gets more accurate as the season progresses. Or is that not the case?

This is a small margin, and looks like it is basically our O vs their D as far as strengths go. If their O starts clicking we could be in trouble. I'm just hoping to not get blown out by BSU at home again, but I wouldn't be too discouraged as we've already done better than I expected this year.
well he does have the 2017 Predict the Score championship under his belt. That must mean something.
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