The “WAC”ky MWC continues with Boise getting a big win. Air Force and Nevada continue to roll.

#1 Nevada 4-1, 1-0
Nevada 55, New Mexico State 28
Carson Strong had 6 TDs and 1 Int as the Wolf Pack were slow to get going after an 8 yard first quarter. They scored 52 points in the final 3 quarters. The 1 Int was in the 1st quarter. New Mexico State has the worst offensive line that I’ve seen this year. They really struggle to pass protect. Nevada had 6 sacks in this game and 9 tackles for a loss. Sam Hammond, Nevada Sr DE, has 4 sacks on the year and 2 of those came this game.

Key upcoming games: 23 Oct @Fresno State, 13 Nov @SDSU
Next game: Nevada hosts Hawaii
Preview: Hawaii had not been particularly good at defending the pass until Haener dumped a bunch of Ints last week. I don’t see Carson Strong doing the same in Reno. Look for Nevada to win this game, by roughly 10pts.
@nvspuds Are you keeping track of your team this year?

#2 Fresno State 4-2, 1-1
BYE

Haener watch: Jake Haener is 12th in the nation, leads the MWC, in passer rating.

Key upcoming games: 16 Oct @Wyoming, 23 Oct Nevada, 30 Oct @SDSU, 6 Nov Boise State
Next game: Fresno State travels to Wyoming.
Preview: This is a key game for Fresno State if they want to win their division and a key game for Wyoming if they want to be a contender in the Mountain Division. Wyoming is a ball control offense and they don’t usually create havoc with their defense. I see Fresno State winning this one as long as Haener learned his lesson from the last game.

#3 San Diego State 5-0, 1-0
San Diego State 31, New Mexico 7

The SDSU defense held New Mexico to 66 yards rushing on the day and less than 200 total. Cameron Thomas, Jr DL, leads the MWC in TFL. SDSU is #1 in the MWC in rushing defense.

Next game: SDSU travels to San Jose State
Key upcoming games: 30 Oct Fresno State, 13 Nov Nevada, 26 Nov Boise State

#4 Boise State 3-3, 1-1
Boise State 26, YBU 17

Boise State forced 3 fumbles as was able to win with the solid play at QB by one of the MWC’s best QBs, Bachmeier. Even though Bachmeier didn’t have a TD pass, he had zero Ints and managed the offense effectively when Boise State had the ball. The Broncos were outgained by 100 yards and it can be easily said that they would’ve lost without the extra possessions.

Next game: Boise State hosts Air Force
Preview: This game is going to be a tough one for the Broncos after a big win in Utah. I could see the Falcons winning this one. The winner of this game will set the tone for the Mountain Division.
Key upcoming games: 6 Nov @Fresno State, 26 Nov @SDSU

#5 Utah State 3-2, 1-1
BYE

Utah State has a 62% chance to win on Saturday according to the ESPN predictor.
See my Utah State blurb below.

Next game: Utah State travels to UNLV

#6 Air Force 5-1, 2-1
Air Force 24, Wyoming 14
Air Force had 200 yards rushing against the Cowboys. A lot of Aggie fans will say that’s because the Wyoming defense is tougher than that of Utah State. While I agree with that to an extent, the majority of the difference is that Wyoming’s D faces Air Force on fewer possessions because both offenses are burning clock. The key stat in this game is the turnover margin despite Air Force fumbling multiple times, they were able to recover their own mistakes.

Next game: Air Force travels to Boise State
Preview: see above

#7 Wyoming 4-1, 0-1
Air Force 24, Wyoming 14

Besides the above said, Chad Muma continues to impress at LB for the Cowboys with 11 tackles in this game. The key to stopping Wyoming is slowing down Valladay at RB. There’s nothing impressive about Chambers at QB. He’s got a 133 QBR which is 5th in the MWC behind Bonner. He has 60 fewer passing attempts however. If he had more, his rating would be worse, trust me. Valladay and the “Cowbody” (it was a typo that I decided to keep) offense relies heavily on the success of the running game. Last week I mentioned that two thirds of their plays go through the RBs.

Next game: Wyoming hosts Fresno State
Preview: see above

#8 Colorado State 2-3, 1-0
Colorado State 32, SJSU 14

A lot of you are wondering why I don’t rank Colorado State higher. Well, start with the QBR of Centeio. He’s last in the MWC, that’s right, behind UNLV’s and UNM’s QBs. The Rams were able to get 3 TOs in this game, 2 of those fumbles. Don’t expect SJSU to give anybody a game until they get Starkel back.

Next game: Colorado State travels to New Mexico

#9 San Jose State 3-3, 1-1
Colorado State 32, SJSU 14

All you need to know here is that Starkel is expected to play soon and hasn't played since the beginning of the W Michigan game. I have no particularly good source, but I’d expect him to play against SDSU. Despite SJSU’s woes at QB without Starkel, they’ve done a good job taking care of the ball and not throwing Ints. Why not open it up more and take more chances at this point?

Next game: San Jose State hosts SDSU
Preview: see above

#10 Hawaii 3-3, 1-1
BYE

Looking ahead, Hawaii has 2 games that are very winnable (50% chance of win or better) according to the ESPN Predictor. NMSU and CSU. That would give them 5 wins. I don’t see where their 7th win is going to come from to get them over .500 by season’s end. Next best chance to win is when they travel to UNLV at 45.7% and then at Utah State (25%). 6 wins wouldn't be bad for the 2nd or 3rd to worse team in the west division.

Next game: Hawaii travels to Nevada
Preview: See above

#11 New Mexico 2-4, 0-2
Air Force 38, New Mexico 10

New Mexico’s best chance to win another game is when it hosts UNLV next month. They have a 42% to win according to the ESPN predictor. The rest of the games, they are looking at a 27% chance or worse.

Next game: New Mexico hosts Air Force.

#12 UNLV 0-5, 0-1
BYE

UNLV’s best chances to win are when it hosts SJSU where it’s a coin flip right now and when it travels to UNM where it has a 58% chance to win. It also has a 54% chance to win against Hawaii when the Rebels host them next month. It looks like the Rebs will win at least one game.

Next game: UNLV hosts Utah State

Utah State Blurb:
If you go by ESPN predictor alone here are the games that are most winnable to least:
11/6 @NMSU: 85.5%
11/26 @UNM: 78.2%
10/30 Hawaii: 74.4%
10/16 @UNLV: 62.4%
10/22 CSU: 56.0%
11/13 @SJSU: 53.1% (If Starkel doesn’t play, I like our chances more than that.)
11/20 Wyoming: 45.6%
You can see that if the Aggies win on Saturday then they are likely looking at 7-5 and a bowl at least. If they lose, it’s going to be much tougher. As I watched Bachmeier run the Boise offense yesterday, I was impressed by how he called the protection and didn’t make critical mistakes. I hope Bonner and Peasley were watching and learning how they can do the same…
There’s a lot that needs to get fixed before Saturday. I can guarantee you that UNLV is looking at film and seeing that the Aggie defense is often missing reads before the ball is snapped and that they can run the ball effectively with misdirection. This is a UNLV team that has plenty of speed. Charles Williams at RB is the guy to watch. If he has a solid game for UNLV, it’s going to be a long night for the Aggies. I don’t expect UNLV to start Brumfield, which would be the best choice at QB. He torched Fresno State in Fresno. They’ll start Friel which is good for Utah State if the Aggie secondary can get some Ints. Friel isn’t a threat in the running game. UNLV uses the RBs mostly. Friel is a Freshman and the Rebs are clearly looking at the future here.

MWC Players having earned my respect as 1st Team
Offense:
QB Jake Haener, Fresno State
RB Calvin Tyler Jr, Utah State; Greg Bell, SDSU
OL TBD
TE Trey McBride, Colorado State (NFL Draft pick)
WR Khalil Shakir, Boise State (NFL Draft pick); WR Jalen Cropper, Fresno State (NFL Draft pick); Deven Thompkins, Utah State
Defense:
Safety: JL Skinner, Boise State (NFL Draft pick); Trenton Thompson, San Diego State
CB: Cortez Davis, Hawaii; Corvan Taylor, Air Force; Tayler Hawkins, SDSU
LB: Justin Rice, Utah State (NFL Draft pick); Chad Muma, Wyoming
DL: Kevin Atkins, Fresno State; Arron Mosby, Fresno State (NFL Draft pick); Cameron Thomas, SDSU; Tristan Nichols, Nevada

Previous Rankings:
https://www.usufans.com/Forums/viewtopi ... =4&t=59346
https://www.usufans.com/Forums/viewtopi ... =4&t=59236
https://www.usufans.com/Forums/viewtopi ... =4&t=59108
https://www.usufans.com/Forums/viewtopi ... =4&t=58983
https://www.usufans.com/Forums/viewtopi ... =4&t=58882

Agree for the most part, but I'd have San Diego State ahead of Fresno for now.

Aggie formerly in Hawaii wrote: ↑

October 10th, 2021, 10:59 am

Agree for the most part, but I'd have San Diego State ahead of Fresno for now.

And I would have UNLV above New Mexico.

utaggies wrote: ↑

October 10th, 2021, 4:05 pm

And I would have UNLV above New Mexico.

I don't think UNM will disappoint you in the coming weeks... I don't see more than 1 more win on their schedule.

However, you have to beat someone, don't you? There's a lot to be said for UNLV's inability to find a way to win.

You forgot to add New Mexico State in there.