Every game that you are playing this week, is the game of the year.... but last weeks result has made the Hawaii game even more important.
Win here, go to 4-1 in the MWC with 3 games left and in pole position to take the Mountain. Lose, and we are in a much more jumbled position.
Hawaii is going to be playing for their bowl eligibility having to win 3 of their next 5, with their other 4 matches against SDSU, UNLV, CSU, and Wyoming. UNLV and Wyoming look very winnable for them, so to get the 3rd it's looking like away at USU or home against CSU. Stakes are very high for them.
Line opened at -7.5 and has dropped to -5.5.

Not that it matters, but I'm confused as to who to root for BSU/CSU. CSU only has one loss and we have the tiebreaker there. BSU has 2 but they own the tiebreaker with us. Both have a few losable games pending. I'm inclined to root for CSU being that I just can't stand the thought of BSU winning the Mountain either way though.

IMO, there is no question as to who to root for. BSU. The Broncos still have to play on the road at Fresno St. and SDS. That’s a tough go. CSU has AFA and Nevada at home. Both are tough games but much more winnable that BSU’s games. CSU only has Hawaii on the road as a potential loss.

Let’s have a BSU win and give us another game cushion on CSU.

utaggies wrote: ↑

October 26th, 2021, 10:58 am

IMO, there is no question as to who to root for. BSU. The Broncos still have to play on the road at Fresno St. and SDS. That’s a tough go. CSU has AFA and Nevada at home. Both are tough games but much more winnable that BSU’s games. CSU only has Hawaii on the road as a potential loss.

Let’s have a BSU win and give us another game cushion on CSU.

Then we would need the Rams to beat the Falcons.

I can't root for the Broncos, period, unless something drastic changes. I understand the conference implications. CSU will lose to someone else, even if they don't lose to Boise.

Anytime someone can take a smelly wet dump on BSU athletic teams it is a good day. Except when they play an equally detestable opponent then may poo rain down on them both.

Go Rams! Drop the load on them and send them further into their current toilet bowl of self pity.

I will root for the Aggies to win all the games.

utaggies wrote: ↑

October 26th, 2021, 10:58 am

IMO, there is no question as to who to root for. BSU. The Broncos still have to play on the road at Fresno St. and SDS. That’s a tough go. CSU has AFA and Nevada at home. Both are tough games but much more winnable that BSU’s games. CSU only has Hawaii on the road as a potential loss.

Let’s have a BSU win and give us another game cushion on CSU.

The fourth quarter breakdown against the Rams last Saturday was unlikely and would be play scheming bait for CSU as they created a game plan based just on those exceptional AGGIE collapses. Seems to me we won't see too many more secondary gaffs as witnessed the last 3 minutes of that game.

I believe AFA and Nevada will beat CSU at their home field. We saw the Rams explode late in the 4th quarter in Logan, and I don't see high powered Nevada in a close game with the Rams, nor do I anticipate Air Force being rolled back on their defensive heels in the second half of their game in Fort Collins.

The utaggie idea of a CSU loss giving us a game cushion is welcome, and how about two losses? . In a game of match ups thei bigger CSU linemen hammered both our lines, yet until the end of the fourth quarter we held a tenuous edge.

Here's how ESPN's FPI sees the rest of the year going for our MW rivals in Conference

BSU 66.5% CSU 33.5%
BSU 43.5% Fresneck 56.5%
BSU 96.1% UNM 3.9%
BSU 47.4% SDSU 52.6%

CSU 33.5% BSU 66.5%
CSU 52.9% WYO 47.1%
CSU 51.7% HAW 48.3%
CSU 45.4% NEV 54.6%

AFA 33.6% NEV 66.4%
AFA 87.4% UNLV 12.6%



So, from this Boise is pretty heavily favored twice, and a toss up twice. CSU is a toss up 3 times and a heavy underdog once.

BSU I think will get one of the two games between Fresneck and SDSU. Getting both would be a stretch, but could win them the Mountain if we slip up.

Obviously the answer is to JFW, but it's an interesting question none the less.

Sl7vk wrote: ↑

October 26th, 2021, 1:06 pm

Here's how ESPN's FPI sees the rest of the year going for our MW rivals in Conference

BSU 66.5% CSU 33.5%
BSU 43.5% Fresneck 56.5%
BSU 96.1% UNM 3.9%
BSU 47.4% SDSU 52.6%

CSU 33.5% BSU 66.5%
CSU 52.9% WYO 47.1%
CSU 51.7% HAW 48.3%
CSU 45.4% NEV 54.6%

AFA 33.6% NEV 66.4%
AFA 87.4% UNLV 12.6%



So, from this Boise is pretty heavily favored twice, and a toss up twice. CSU is a toss up 3 times and a heavy underdog once.

BSU I think will get one of the two games between Fresneck and SDSU. Getting both would be a stretch, but could win them the Mountain if we slip up.

Obviously the answer is to JFW, but it's an interesting question none the less.

This is one of the great fun things about being a fan, in my opinion. We have a shot at a conference championship! Thinking about how the season will play out for us and our conference mates is awesome.

"Yes, we control our own destiny and all we have to do is win, but what if we lose? Is all hope lost? No - it looks like we just need CSU and BSU to each lose again and we can still be in first place. Let's see, which games will they lose? Hey look! They play each other! That's a guaranteed loss for one of them. We would just need the winner to lose one more game. What possibilities are there?" And so on.

I love it!

it looks like i'm going to spend all of my energy this saturday looking for a video feed of the US game, and won't have time to worry about U and CSU

Shoot, missed a couple of games. An important one too. AFA and CSU. Also missed BSU and Wyoming.

BSU 66.5% CSU 33.5%
BSU 43.5% Fresneck 56.5%
BSU 84.9% WYO 15.1%
BSU 96.1% UNM 3.9%
BSU 47.4% SDSU 52.6%

CSU 33.5% BSU 66.5%
CSU 52.9% WYO 47.1%
CSU 51% AFA 49%
CSU 51.7% HAW 48.3%
CSU 45.4% NEV 54.6%

AFA 33.6% NEV 66.4%
AFA 49% CSU 51%
AFA 87.4% UNLV 12.6%

Here’s another way to think about it. If CSU wins the Rams and the Aggies remain tied in the loss column with USU having the tie-breaker. If CSU loses the Aggies gain a one game cushion AND hold the tie-breaker over the Rams should we slip up in one of our remaking conference games.

If BSU loses to CSU we gain a 2-game cushion over the Broncos but lose the tie-breaker. If BSU wins the Aggies maintain a one game cushion against the Broncos even though we lose the tie-breaker.

Go Broncos!

Speaking of AFA, no one has come close to scoring as many points on them as we did, was that game just a fluke? I’d hate to have to replay them this year!

I'm hoping to see Boise drop the SDSU and Fresno games, and drop another one between Wyoming/CSU. Or any combination, really. Don't care. But seeing the BSU fan meltdown if they don't even go bowling would be Schadenfreude gold.

utaggies wrote: ↑

October 26th, 2021, 2:07 pm

Here’s another way to think about it. If CSU wins the Rams and the Aggies remain tied in the loss column with USU having the tie-breaker. If CSU loses the Aggies gain a one game cushion AND hold the tie-breaker over the Rams should we slip up in one of our remaking conference games.

If BSU loses to CSU we gain a 2-game cushion over the Broncos but lose the tie-breaker. If BSU wins the Aggies maintain a one game cushion against the Broncos even though we lose the tie-breaker.

Go Broncos!

No, you are wrong (but correct too). We are on equal footing with BSU and CSU right now. If we lose one more game, then both BSU and CSU have to lose one more game for us to win the division. We need whoever wins Saturday to lose at least one more. I guess you are more worried about CSU winning out?

And then if we win our division we are then pounded by SDSU, NEVADA or FRESNO on a very high profile T V broadcast? Probably the money from that game would be good, but overcoming the stigma of a very public route would be tough. We just don't have the horses this season, period.

Yeah, but don't we get a trophy or something for winning the Mountain division?

USUaggie wrote: ↑

October 26th, 2021, 2:36 pm

utaggies wrote: ↑

October 26th, 2021, 2:07 pm

Here’s another way to think about it. If CSU wins the Rams and the Aggies remain tied in the loss column with USU having the tie-breaker. If CSU loses the Aggies gain a one game cushion AND hold the tie-breaker over the Rams should we slip up in one of our remaking conference games.

If BSU loses to CSU we gain a 2-game cushion over the Broncos but lose the tie-breaker. If BSU wins the Aggies maintain a one game cushion against the Broncos even though we lose the tie-breaker.

Go Broncos!

No, you are wrong (but correct too). We are on equal footing with BSU and CSU right now. If we lose one more game, then both BSU and CSU have to lose one more game for us to win the division. We need whoever wins Saturday to lose at least one more. I guess you are more worried about CSU winning out?

You are correct in saying that both BSU and CSU have to lose one more game for us to win the division SHOULD we lose one more game. But you are incorrect in saying that we are on equal footing with both of them. BSU has two conference losses. We have one. That’s not equal footing. While the Broncos have the tie-breaker over us we currently maintain a one game edge over them and their remaining schedule is much more difficult than ours. We have the edge. Both CSU and USU have one conference loss. But the footing is not equal in that instance either because we own the tie-breaker over CSU.

I’d rather have a one game edge over the Broncos, i.e., have them beat CSU, given their remaining schedule rather than have only the tie-breaker edge over the Rams, i.e., CSU beats the Broncos — given the Rams’ easier remaining schedule.

NavyBlueAggie wrote: ↑

October 26th, 2021, 2:53 pm

And then if we win our division we are then pounded by SDSU, NEVADA or FRESNO on a very high profile T V broadcast? Probably the money from that game would be good, but overcoming the stigma of a very public route would be tough. We just don't have the horses this season, period.

I'll take being pounded if that's what it comes to. If you look at comparative scores, the only team of those three that I see giving us a meatgrinder is SDSU. We just could not handle that team's physicality. And their OL is YUUUGGE!!!

Nevada and Fresno would throw the ball on us a lot, but that doesn't worry me as much, even though both of those teams would beat us.

NavyBlueAggie wrote: ↑

October 26th, 2021, 2:53 pm

And then if we win our division we are then pounded by SDSU, NEVADA or FRESNO on a very high profile T V broadcast? Probably the money from that game would be good, but overcoming the stigma of a very public route would be tough. We just don't have the horses this season, period.

I'd rather get blown out and have had a shot than be sitting on my sofa watching another team.
Don't care for the argument that we may or may not get embarrassed.

10-2 Aggies didn't play in a MWC Championship in 2018 because of a single conference loss on the road to BSU. Too bad so sad. Didn't complain then, and I won't complain if this team earns a MWC Championship game on the road at any of the teams you've mentioned.

NavyBlueAggie wrote: ↑

October 26th, 2021, 2:53 pm

And then if we win our division we are then pounded by SDSU, NEVADA or FRESNO on a very high profile T V broadcast? Probably the money from that game would be good, but overcoming the stigma of a very public route would be tough. We just don't have the horses this season, period.

The "stigma" of losing in a conference championship game when we were projected to have 3 wins on the season? Get out of here with that ****

NavyBlueAggie wrote: ↑

October 26th, 2021, 2:53 pm

And then if we win our division we are then pounded by SDSU, NEVADA or FRESNO on a very high profile T V broadcast? Probably the money from that game would be good, but overcoming the stigma of a very public route would be tough. We just don't have the horses this season, period.

We didn’t have the horses to beat Washington St. or the AFA either but here we are. I would NEVER hope that the Aggies stumble and not get into the CCG simply because we don’t think we’d show well. Stuff happens.

Not wanting to be in the championship game because you think you'll get blown out is kind of like firing your coach when he's 5-3 because you assume he'll lose the last 4 games of the season.

utaggies wrote: ↑

October 26th, 2021, 2:57 pm

USUaggie wrote: ↑

October 26th, 2021, 2:36 pm

utaggies wrote: ↑

October 26th, 2021, 2:07 pm

Here’s another way to think about it. If CSU wins the Rams and the Aggies remain tied in the loss column with USU having the tie-breaker. If CSU loses the Aggies gain a one game cushion AND hold the tie-breaker over the Rams should we slip up in one of our remaking conference games.

If BSU loses to CSU we gain a 2-game cushion over the Broncos but lose the tie-breaker. If BSU wins the Aggies maintain a one game cushion against the Broncos even though we lose the tie-breaker.

Go Broncos!

No, you are wrong (but correct too). We are on equal footing with BSU and CSU right now. If we lose one more game, then both BSU and CSU have to lose one more game for us to win the division. We need whoever wins Saturday to lose at least one more. I guess you are more worried about CSU winning out?

You are correct in saying that both BSU and CSU have to lose one more game for us to win the division SHOULD we lose one more game. But you are incorrect in saying that we are on equal footing with both of them. BSU has two conference losses. We have one. That’s not equal footing. While the Broncos have the tie-breaker over us we currently maintain a one game edge over them and their remaining schedule is much more difficult than ours. We have the edge. Both CSU and USU have one conference loss. But the footing is not equal in that instance either because we own the tie-breaker over CSU.

I’d rather have a one game edge over the Broncos, i.e., have them beat CSU, given their remaining schedule rather than have only the tie-breaker edge over the Rams, i.e., CSU beats the Broncos — given the Rams’ easier remaining schedule.

We are on equal footing because of the tie breakers. No way around that.

USUaggie wrote: ↑

October 26th, 2021, 5:47 pm

utaggies wrote: ↑

October 26th, 2021, 2:57 pm

USUaggie wrote: ↑

October 26th, 2021, 2:36 pm

utaggies wrote: ↑

October 26th, 2021, 2:07 pm

Here’s another way to think about it. If CSU wins the Rams and the Aggies remain tied in the loss column with USU having the tie-breaker. If CSU loses the Aggies gain a one game cushion AND hold the tie-breaker over the Rams should we slip up in one of our remaking conference games.

If BSU loses to CSU we gain a 2-game cushion over the Broncos but lose the tie-breaker. If BSU wins the Aggies maintain a one game cushion against the Broncos even though we lose the tie-breaker.

Go Broncos!

No, you are wrong (but correct too). We are on equal footing with BSU and CSU right now. If we lose one more game, then both BSU and CSU have to lose one more game for us to win the division. We need whoever wins Saturday to lose at least one more. I guess you are more worried about CSU winning out?

You are correct in saying that both BSU and CSU have to lose one more game for us to win the division SHOULD we lose one more game. But you are incorrect in saying that we are on equal footing with both of them. BSU has two conference losses. We have one. That’s not equal footing. While the Broncos have the tie-breaker over us we currently maintain a one game edge over them and their remaining schedule is much more difficult than ours. We have the edge. Both CSU and USU have one conference loss. But the footing is not equal in that instance either because we own the tie-breaker over CSU.

I’d rather have a one game edge over the Broncos, i.e., have them beat CSU, given their remaining schedule rather than have only the tie-breaker edge over the Rams, i.e., CSU beats the Broncos — given the Rams’ easier remaining schedule.

We are on equal footing because of the tie breakers. No way around that.

Boise has two losses and we have one. We have the edge regardless of the tie-breaker.

CSU and USU both have one loss. We have the edge because we own the tie-breaker with them.

Both circumstances equate to unequal footing to our benefit. The question is who has the edge if we lose one more game? And the answer is, “It depends.” If BSU beats CSU then we have to rely on either SDS or Fresno to beat the Broncos to regain our advantage. If CSU beats BSU then we have to rely on CSU losing one more game to regain our advantage. The former scenario is more likely than the latter scenario, which is why I’m rooting for BSU to beat the Rams this weekend.

The AFA is still not out of of picture. We can lose one more game and still have the tie-breaker against the Zoomies. It gets more dicey if there is a tie for the division championship and BSU is in that mix. If we tie with both CSU and the AFA we go to the CCG.

Sl7vk wrote: ↑

October 26th, 2021, 10:48 am

Not that it matters, but I'm confused as to who to root for BSU/CSU.

The way I'm seeing this, the winner goes to a bowl, the loser doesn't. I'd be thrilled to see Boise sitting at home in December.

For all my AGGIE friends on this board who took exception to my fear of our school losing face by being blown out in a big regional T V game, I have this comment: I PREFER MY KENTUCKY FRIED CROW with Mac and Cheese. Thanks for your outlook and strength my friends.

AggieFBObsession wrote: ↑

October 26th, 2021, 11:34 am

I can't root for the Broncos, period, unless something drastic changes. I understand the conference implications. CSU will lose to someone else, even if they don't lose to Boise.

We control our own destiny. If we win out, nothing anyone else does matters.

I want BSU to have a losing season. I want them to be sitting at home wishing they were down the street in that abortion of a stadium, playing in the Tater Bowl. Then I want it to happen again next year.

http://www.playoffstatus.com/mountainwe ... nprob.html

Kind of interesting. They have us at 65% chance of reaching the championship game, same as SDSU.
This would indicate that CSU is the bigger issue at 7% chance versus BSU at 5%.

Definitely wanting Boise to win today and that’s hard for me to say. They aren’t going to win @SDSU and it’s going to be tough for them to win against Fresno. For CSU, they have to play Air Force and Nevada so that should be another two losses but I think they have the talent to pull those off. Either team winning wouldnt really impact us now, but I’m more worried about CSU being able to run the table if they win today then I am Boise.

I think you can never have enough cushion between us and the donks. Sure they’ve been a little discombobulated, but they have the talent to win out. They worry me the most out of our division. I’ll be rooting for the lil lambs this week and then against them the following weeks.

I didn't realize until this week that CSU has never beaten BSU.