Oh, Alma Mater, BBD Stats! (Week 6, Air Force)

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Oh, Alma Mater, BBD Stats! (Week 6, Air Force)

Post by BigBlueDart » October 4th, 2022, 2:22 pm

Last week's prediction varied from reality in a couple of ways. First of all, we scored about 10 more points (BYU prediction was just about dead on). The second thing was the rushing game. On both sides. We gained much more on the ground than expected, and the gained much less. Both passing games had decent ballpark predictions, but the differences in the running games also skewed the total yards.

USU - 16.54 (26) (149.55 (204) rush, 164.29 (188) pass, 313.84 (392) total)
BYU - 38.62 (38) (201.94 (117) rush, 268.10 (280) pass, 470.04 (397) total)

Despite beating our predicted rushing total against BYU, the relative performance of the run game is still around where it was last week. The passing game and scoring took decent steps forward, though. On defense our rushing D is what looks markedly improved. I hope that holds true against our next opponent, rather than just being a statistical aberration.

Looking at the passing vs rushing numbers for the Air Force offense is always hard to do. They run more than everybody and they pass less than anyone. But taking a look at the scoring and total yards I think we see that while AF is good, they have also gotten their gaudy totals against poor competition. They do score and gain yards against their opponents more than average, but only a bit. Enough to say they're good, but not great. The defense is a similar story, but I'd say they look better on that side of the ball. Especially with their scoring D. Our offense will have to continue the upward trend and make it even stronger for us to have a chance. Our D is going to have to be very disciplined and just hold out.

USU
Score O: 17.6 Avg; 20.4 Opp. D; -2.8 ppg worse; -13.70%
Rush O: 153.2 Avg; 118.4 Opp. D; 34.8 ypg better; 29.41%
Pass O: 201.6 Avg; 204.7 Opp. D; -3.1 ypg worse; -1.52%
Total O: 354.8 Avg; 323.1 Opp. D; 31.7 ypg better; 9.82%
Score D: 36.4 Avg; 34.0 Opp. O; -2.4 ppg worse; -7.05%
Rush D: 188.4 Avg; 187.3 Opp. O; -1.1 ypg worse; -0.57%
Pass D: 219.8 Avg; 230.7 Opp. O; 10.9 ypg better; 4.71%
Total D: 408.2 Avg; 418.0 Opp. O; 9.8 ypg better; 2.34%

Air Force
Score O: 32.8 Avg; 30.5 Opp. D; 2.3 ppg better; 7.38%
Rush O: 369.8 Avg; 186.3 Opp. D; 183.5 ypg better; 98.45%
Pass O: 90.8 Avg; 237.0 Opp. D; -146.2 ypg worse; -61.69%
Total O: 460.6 Avg; 423.4 Opp. D; 37.2 ypg better; 8.80%
Score D: 14.8 Avg; 20.2 Opp. O; 5.4 ppg better; 26.82%
Rush D: 127.2 Avg; 143.3 Opp. O; 16.1 ypg better; 11.26%
Pass D: 151.6 Avg; 170.2 Opp. O; 18.6 ypg better; 10.91%
Total D: 278.8 Avg; 313.5 Opp. O; 34.7 ypg better; 11.07%

And the official BBD BS prediction:
USU - 12.09 (149.54 rush, 165.76 pass, 315.30 total)
AF - 36.93 (371.36 rush, 76.75 pass, 448.11 total)


Category Rankings

Score O: USU-7th; AF-3rd
Rush O: USU-2nd; AF-1st
Pass O: USU-4th; AF-11th
Total O: USU-1st; AF-2nd :shock: this one really surprised me

Score D: USU-10th; AF-2nd
Rush D: USU-7th; AF-5th
Pass D: USU-5th; AF-4th
Total D: USU-8th; AF-2nd

Overall Rankings (score and yards combined differential)

1. Air Force (+54.07%)
2. Boise St (+37.07%)
3. UNLV (+28.63%)
4. SJSU (+16.36%)
5. Wyoming (+8.80%)
6. Fresno St (-6.86%)
7. USU (-8.58%)
8. New Mexico (-19.26%)
9. Nevada (-36.24%)
10. SDSU (-37.96%)
11. Colorado St (-81.87%)
12. Hawai'i (-116.17%)
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Re: Oh, Alma Mater, BBD Stats! (Week 6, Air Force)

Post by ViAggie » October 4th, 2022, 2:28 pm

So add 10 more points and we should have a more accurate score?

USU - 22.09 (149.54 rush, 165.76 pass, 315.30 total [+extra mystery yards, fumble recoveries for TD'S and extra points?])
AF - 36.93 (371.36 rush, 76.75 pass, 448.11 total)

:thumbsup:
Last edited by ViAggie on October 4th, 2022, 3:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.


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Re: Oh, Alma Mater, BBD Stats! (Week 6, Air Force)

Post by BigBlueDart » October 4th, 2022, 2:40 pm

Something like that.
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Re: Oh, Alma Mater, BBD Stats! (Week 6, Air Force)

Post by sam tingey » October 7th, 2022, 1:57 pm

Its a labor of love that you do this in poor seasons. I enjoy this more when we are winning.



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Re: Oh, Alma Mater, BBD Stats! (Week 6, Air Force)

Post by Yossarian » October 7th, 2022, 3:14 pm

37 - 12 for Air Force?

That is a believable outcome.


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Re: Oh, Alma Mater, BBD Stats! (Week 6, Air Force)

Post by ViAggie » October 7th, 2022, 3:20 pm

Yossarian wrote:
October 7th, 2022, 3:14 pm
37 - 12 for Air Force?

That is a believable outcome.
Just not a desired outcome


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