Another way to look at probabilities of the NCAA

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noods
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Another way to look at probabilities of the NCAA

Post by noods » March 8th, 2011, 9:18 pm

I just got this in an alumni email. It discusses probabilities of tournament outcomes based on seeds, combination of seeds, etc. It is based on historical data of where certain seeds have ended up in past tournaments and is not based on probabilities of individual games for actual teams.

http://engineering.illinois.edu/news/20 ... final-four

http://bracketodds.cs.illinois.edu/

I think using models based on something like the sagarin predictor (like rpiforecast.com) would be more accurate, but this site was interesting to mess around with. It would be interesting if someone used the sagarin predictor after the brackets were filled to see if the predicted seed combinations for each round roughly was similar to this.



stewusu98
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Re: Another way to look at probabilities of the NCAA

Post by stewusu98 » March 8th, 2011, 9:37 pm

Wow according to that only 1, 9 seed has ever made it to the elite 8. While I think 7, 10 seeds have. Very interesting.



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WAAggie
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Re: Another way to look at probabilities of the NCAA

Post by WAAggie » March 8th, 2011, 10:40 pm

5,6,7 or 10 is where we want to be!!!!!



cache-aggie
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Re: Another way to look at probabilities of the NCAA

Post by cache-aggie » March 8th, 2011, 10:47 pm

heck, I say bring on an 8 or 9 seed. I want to see the Ags shock the world and take down Kansas or Ohio St or Duke - whatever.



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UtahStizzle
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Re: Another way to look at probabilities of the NCAA

Post by UtahStizzle » March 9th, 2011, 1:56 am

Another probability - supposedly most teams that make the final four have 2-3 future NBA players.


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RockyMountainHigh
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Re: Another way to look at probabilities of the NCAA

Post by RockyMountainHigh » March 9th, 2011, 1:26 pm

WAAggie wrote:5,6,7 or 10 is where we want to be!!!!!
Then you have to include 11 and 12 as well. I agree, the worst seeds are 8,9, 15, 16. Some 14s have won so it's not the end
of the world. I hope we're an 11 seed and that the Aggies are a 10 but I think they'll be a 8/9.



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