Computers love us

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cache-aggie
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Computers love us

Post by cache-aggie » March 16th, 2011, 2:39 pm

Just checked out this little nugget - can computers be wrong?

http://www.whatifsports.com/BracketPrev ... st/Round1/
I'm not sure where all the numbers come from that this computer simulation is using, but me likey :)



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BigBlueDart
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Re: Computers love us

Post by BigBlueDart » March 16th, 2011, 2:41 pm

Computers are programmed by people. I happen to be a people that programs computers. I've produced some pretty screwed up stuff, let me tell ya. In the end, statistics is just a crutch for when we don't know the absolute of things.



MANvsFOOD
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Re: Computers love us

Post by MANvsFOOD » March 16th, 2011, 2:44 pm

Computer predictions are only as good as the crap you put into them. Crap in, Crap out. If you put in inflated stats brought on by playing a horrendously weak schedule then you probably end up with that.



stewusu98
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Re: Computers love us

Post by stewusu98 » March 16th, 2011, 3:05 pm

We only won by one point. They might like us but they do not love us. I would rather play wisconsin first.



cache-aggie
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Re: Computers love us

Post by cache-aggie » March 16th, 2011, 4:15 pm

As a stats computer modeler guy myself, I'm all too aware about the crap that can go into a model to make the model say what you want. And in that regard, I don't think these guys are using mostly crap to come up with these bootstrapped model simulations. If it were built by alumni of schools in the tournament, there would probably be a little bias in it (just as if I were building a model on this). That said, I think we have a coin flip of a chance to beat K-State, even without my aggie blue-colored glasses on.
We have the experienced senior leadership that so many of the teams that outperform their seed have had in the past. And I think that is a big deal along with a good road record. By my count, there are only a few teams in the tournament that have at least the same number of seniors or juniors on their 7-deep rosters. Specifically, besides us, there is only ODU, Wofford, UCSB and Hampton. Not that they would all win, but they might surprise.



AbsoluteAggie
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Re: Computers love us

Post by AbsoluteAggie » March 16th, 2011, 4:21 pm

Well Madden usually is pretty accurate when it comes to the Superbowl, just sayin'



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AndroidAggie
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Re: Computers love us

Post by AndroidAggie » March 16th, 2011, 4:56 pm

AccuScore likes us over K-State as well, bad SOS and all.

"Hey, Dave, I think I'm done with the predictive model formula."

"I think you forgot the SOS, Larry."

"No, I didn't include it. That way teams like Utah State will be picked to win."

"Oh, ok. Go ahead and commit the code then."

Right, that's how it happens...



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GoldenHurricAGG
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Re: Computers love us

Post by GoldenHurricAGG » March 16th, 2011, 5:15 pm

MANvsFOOD wrote:Computer predictions are only as good as the crap you put into them. Crap in, Crap out. If you put in inflated stats brought on by playing a horrendously weak schedule then you probably end up with that.
Thanks, stats man.

1) You will be saying this when the BCS numbers are spewed out, right EMAW? [Computers ALWAYS spew out crap... except for when the computers spew out crap in your favor... and when they do - everyone looks the other way, or defends the numbers 'til death].

2) Our "horrendously weak schedule" exhibits an OOC SOS that is better than the OOC S'sOS of Notre Dame, Cincy, Texas A&M and Missouri. While I understand that we are in a weaker conference than these teams (and thereby need to schedule better OOC games), scheduling better OOC games isn't terribly easy (this has been talked about relentlessly on this board - keep reading other threads for further enlightenment). Further: there isn't much that we can do about the current talent level exhibited by the rest of the WAC.


"In the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt." - Bertrand Russell

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