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Computers love us

Posted: March 16th, 2011, 2:39 pm
by cache-aggie
Just checked out this little nugget - can computers be wrong?

http://www.whatifsports.com/BracketPrev ... st/Round1/
I'm not sure where all the numbers come from that this computer simulation is using, but me likey :)

Re: Computers love us

Posted: March 16th, 2011, 2:41 pm
by BigBlueDart
Computers are programmed by people. I happen to be a people that programs computers. I've produced some pretty screwed up stuff, let me tell ya. In the end, statistics is just a crutch for when we don't know the absolute of things.

Re: Computers love us

Posted: March 16th, 2011, 2:44 pm
by MANvsFOOD
Computer predictions are only as good as the crap you put into them. Crap in, Crap out. If you put in inflated stats brought on by playing a horrendously weak schedule then you probably end up with that.

Re: Computers love us

Posted: March 16th, 2011, 3:05 pm
by stewusu98
We only won by one point. They might like us but they do not love us. I would rather play wisconsin first.

Re: Computers love us

Posted: March 16th, 2011, 4:15 pm
by cache-aggie
As a stats computer modeler guy myself, I'm all too aware about the crap that can go into a model to make the model say what you want. And in that regard, I don't think these guys are using mostly crap to come up with these bootstrapped model simulations. If it were built by alumni of schools in the tournament, there would probably be a little bias in it (just as if I were building a model on this). That said, I think we have a coin flip of a chance to beat K-State, even without my aggie blue-colored glasses on.
We have the experienced senior leadership that so many of the teams that outperform their seed have had in the past. And I think that is a big deal along with a good road record. By my count, there are only a few teams in the tournament that have at least the same number of seniors or juniors on their 7-deep rosters. Specifically, besides us, there is only ODU, Wofford, UCSB and Hampton. Not that they would all win, but they might surprise.

Re: Computers love us

Posted: March 16th, 2011, 4:21 pm
by AbsoluteAggie
Well Madden usually is pretty accurate when it comes to the Superbowl, just sayin'

Re: Computers love us

Posted: March 16th, 2011, 4:56 pm
by AndroidAggie
AccuScore likes us over K-State as well, bad SOS and all.

"Hey, Dave, I think I'm done with the predictive model formula."

"I think you forgot the SOS, Larry."

"No, I didn't include it. That way teams like Utah State will be picked to win."

"Oh, ok. Go ahead and commit the code then."

Right, that's how it happens...

Re: Computers love us

Posted: March 16th, 2011, 5:15 pm
by GoldenHurricAGG
MANvsFOOD wrote:Computer predictions are only as good as the crap you put into them. Crap in, Crap out. If you put in inflated stats brought on by playing a horrendously weak schedule then you probably end up with that.
Thanks, stats man.

1) You will be saying this when the BCS numbers are spewed out, right EMAW? [Computers ALWAYS spew out crap... except for when the computers spew out crap in your favor... and when they do - everyone looks the other way, or defends the numbers 'til death].

2) Our "horrendously weak schedule" exhibits an OOC SOS that is better than the OOC S'sOS of Notre Dame, Cincy, Texas A&M and Missouri. While I understand that we are in a weaker conference than these teams (and thereby need to schedule better OOC games), scheduling better OOC games isn't terribly easy (this has been talked about relentlessly on this board - keep reading other threads for further enlightenment). Further: there isn't much that we can do about the current talent level exhibited by the rest of the WAC.