As 3rdGenAggie posted elsewhere (viewtopic.php?f=6&t=25439&p=204039&hili ... er#p204039), Sports Illustrated's Andy Glockner has strongly criticized USU's OOC schedule (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/colleg ... f=sihp#all).

Louisiana Tech (14-3, 5-0; RPI: 53, SOS: 214)

The Bulldogs play Utah State twice and still have to go to New Mexico State, so there are a couple chances for decent wins on the way to a potential WAC title. Could the win over Southern Miss be a helper down the road? The loss at McNeese State certainly won't be.
GW: Southern Miss?
BL: at McNeese State

Note: Utah State may well be the best team in the WAC, but the Aggies will be compromised once again by a horrible nonleague schedule should they need an at-large. They do get a road game at BYU (rescheduled for Feb. 19) to add to the ledger, but overall, the schedule is just very weak.

I'm going to take slight exception to Glockner's take on USU and Louisiana Tech. I'll concede that USU's OOC schedule not glamorous, but it's going to end up being slightly above average and notably better than Louisiana Tech's. According to freakboy, who runs rpiforecast.com, (http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/WAC.html) USU's final OOC SOS will be 198 (among about 340 schools). Louisiana Tech's will be 246. And that 198 isn't counting the BracketBuster game, which will be against decent competition, and will be enough to put it into the top half nationally. If USU's is "very weak" and "horrible," then Louisiana Tech's must be "exceptionally weak" and "disastrously bad" - yet Glockner doesn't seem to be fazed by it at all.

USU's OOC SOS will end up being comparable to Wyoming's (180), which will end up having an overall SOS of 52 by virtue of playing in the MWC, which is the second-best RPI conference in the country.

That's what I like so much about the MWC being in USU's future. If the Aggies play an average OOC schedule (which they usually do), they will end up having a top-50 overall strength of schedule and all kinds of games against top-50 competition. For example, not considering the MWC tournament, Wyoming is projected to have 11 or 12 top-50 games, and only one of them (Colorado) was an OOC game. Wyoming has only two top-100 OOC opponents (Colorado and Denver).

In contrast, USU will end up with five of its 11 OOC D-1 games against top-100 competition (BYU, Santa Clara, St. Mary's, Weber State and the BracketBuster opponent). It might not be the most attractive schedule in the country, but it's a little harsh for Sports Illustrated to say that it's "horrible" and "very bad."

Let's fast-forward to next year. If USU can play five OOC games against top-100 competition again next year - and I think they almost certainly will - the Aggies are going to have fifteen or sixteen top-100 games overall and a top-40 overall SOS.

Utah State University does not play collegiate basketball to have what the media perceive as a "tough schedule." USU plays basketball to have the greatest atmosphere in sports, win conference championships, and dominate the state of Utah. Those are the things USU does, and does quite well.

Seldomseensmith wrote:The media isn't "perceiving" anything. In this case the media is making a true statement about the strength of USU's OOC schedule based on statistical evidence.

But in comparison to La Tech (the team he has ahead of USU because of SOS), our schedule is actually tougher...it's ignorance in that case. Same will probably go for Wyoming, who will probably get into the tourney with like a 7 seed or something ridiculous even though we'll be life or death for a 12 seed.

MetsJetsAggies wrote:

Seldomseensmith wrote:The media isn't "perceiving" anything. In this case the media is making a true statement about the strength of USU's OOC schedule based on statistical evidence.

But in comparison to La Tech (the team he has ahead of USU because of SOS), our schedule is actually tougher...it's ignorance in that case. Same will probably go for Wyoming, who will probably get into the tourney with like a 7 seed or something ridiculous even though we'll be life or death for a 12 seed.

I don't think Glockner uses rpiforcast like you and I Mja. I suspect based on current SOS numbers he is actually correct.

Besides, we don't pass the hats in the mall test or the "eye test" aka the "in a bcs conference or not test".

Sent from my HTC One V using Tapatalk 2

treesap32 wrote:

MetsJetsAggies wrote:

Seldomseensmith wrote:The media isn't "perceiving" anything. In this case the media is making a true statement about the strength of USU's OOC schedule based on statistical evidence.

But in comparison to La Tech (the team he has ahead of USU because of SOS), our schedule is actually tougher...it's ignorance in that case. Same will probably go for Wyoming, who will probably get into the tourney with like a 7 seed or something ridiculous even though we'll be life or death for a 12 seed.

I don't think Glockner uses rpiforcast like you and I Mja. I suspect based on current SOS numbers he is actually correct.

Besides, we don't pass the hats in the mall test or the "eye test" aka the "in a bcs conference or not test".

Sent from my HTC One V using Tapatalk 2

True, our OOC SOS only gets better when we play BYU. Until then it's pretty horrendous. But that's not to say that La Tech is playing world beaters either...

Can't wait for MWC hoops so this issue can finally be resolved.

I don't think OOC strength of schedule is all that relevant. Overall strength of schedule is the key to determining the relative strength of any particular team. That said, you can get away with a strong OOC SOS with a weak conference schedule, or a weak OOC SOS with a strong conference schedule, and people will give you a pass. What you can't have is a weak OOC SOS and a weak conference schedule. And that is exactly what we have this year. We are getting called out for it, and rightfully so.

While I agree that this schedule is horrible. I honestly believe it is what is best for this team. We have not had much continuity since Tai, Pooh, Newbold and company. We need to gain some confidence and learn how to play together and run Stew's system. We are mentally strong because of this schedule, unfortunately we have not learned to play good team defense, or play for 40 minutes. We knew that we would have to have an amazingly tough OOC schedule and win those games, or just win our conference tournament to go to the NCAA's. Stew & Company thought our best chance would be to gain confidence and try to win the conference tournament. I agree with this. Therefore, I agree that while this schedule is not the most entertaining for us fans (although the team is trying to make the games as close as possible), the approach that this coaching staff has taken schedule wise is the best chance for the aggies to gain confidence and have a chance for success post season.

I agree with stewusu98 here. Its not like this team is dominating the competition. It seems like stew pegged this team correctly and has given them games against teams that they can compete against and grow without getting embarrassed and losing confidence. This team is getting better. Pieces seem to come together here and there, just not always the same pieces or at the same time. This will happen though in my opinion by the end of the year and this team will be pretty good. We will keep improving and keep gaining confidence and I attribute our growth so far in part because of the schedule.

Mr. Sneelock wrote:I don't think OOC strength of schedule is all that relevant. Overall strength of schedule is the key to determining the relative strength of any particular team. That said, you can get away with a strong OOC SOS with a weak conference schedule, or a weak OOC SOS with a strong conference schedule, and people will give you a pass. What you can't have is a weak OOC SOS and a weak conference schedule. And that is exactly what we have this year. We are getting called out for it, and rightfully so.

USU's OOC SOS (or overall SOS) isn't going to be a plus factor in getting into the NCAA tournament. However, I'll again point out that it is going to be above average nationally and that five of the 11 D-1 opponents are likely to be in the top-100.

If USU wins out (unlikely), the Aggies will end up with an 8-1 record against top-100 competition this year. That would include the BracketBuster and the WAC tournament. Taking all that into consideration, they would have an overall SOS that is slightly above average (in the 140's range) and a 31-1 D-1 record with an RPI of about 25. In the best case scenario, USU will have a resume that could be intriguing.

Nonetheless, I continue to assert that USU is the worst one-loss team in the country. In the middle of January, that's a good thing to be able to say. In fact, there is a chance that USU could beat Stephen F. Austin on a neutral court. The other nine teams with just one loss - not likely.

dogie wrote:

Mr. Sneelock wrote:I don't think OOC strength of schedule is all that relevant. Overall strength of schedule is the key to determining the relative strength of any particular team. That said, you can get away with a strong OOC SOS with a weak conference schedule, or a weak OOC SOS with a strong conference schedule, and people will give you a pass. What you can't have is a weak OOC SOS and a weak conference schedule. And that is exactly what we have this year. We are getting called out for it, and rightfully so.

USU's OOC SOS isn't going to be a plus factor in getting into the NCAA tournament. However, I'll again point out that it is going to be above average natinoally and that five of the 11 D-1 opponents are likely to be in the top-100.

But how many have hats in the mall or pass the Jay Bilas test?

scotlandog wrote:I agree with stewusu98 here. Its not like this team is dominating the competition. It seems like stew pegged this team correctly and has given them games against teams that they can compete against and grow without getting embarrassed and losing confidence. This team is getting better. Pieces seem to come together here and there, just not always the same pieces or at the same time. This will happen though in my opinion by the end of the year and this team will be pretty good. We will keep improving and keep gaining confidence and I attribute our growth so far in part because of the schedule.

Stew amazes me in different ways every season. He makes me groan sometimes too.

This is another reason to respect his vision. Well said scotlandog.

I'm not as concerned about the out of conference schedule this year as in years past. That is because I don't think this team would be winning games against tougher competition, unlike past years where I don't think they got a chance to prove what they could do. This is especially true with some of the solid experienced teams in the past.

This year was supposed to be somewhat of a rebuilding year, so I am not bothered by the weak schedule. Even with the weak schedule, this team has overachieved somewhat. I would have never guessed them to be 14-1 at this point.