Tournament seeding

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BigBlueDart
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Tournament seeding

Post by BigBlueDart » February 27th, 2017, 10:34 am

I know nobody around here really cares at this point, but I still at least enjoy the process of figuring out where teams could end up seeded in the MWC tournament. Has anybody seen any articles out there breaking it down for the whole conference? I'm mostly just interested in us, but I like seeing the full breakdown when somebody else does it.

A cursory look at the standings makes it appear that we could be seeded between 7 and 9. On the slim chance that SDSU loses their last two games, they would still own the head-to-head tie-breaker against us. We have the tie-breaker against SJSU. We probably have the tie-breaker against Wyoming, though if they manage to beat CSU, but lose to SJSU, and CSU ends up seeded higher than Nevada, then they would get the tie-breaker. In the event of a three-way tie with us, SJSU, and Wyoming, we also have the tie-breaker.

Overall, I'm really liking our chances at getting the 7 seed. Granted, we need to beat UNLV, but I think we can manage one more conference road win against the worst team in the conference. SJSU and Wyoming play each other, so at least one of them will get another loss. SJSU plays Nevada and Wyoming plays CSU, the two teams tied for first right now. If we do manage to get the 7 seed that will put us up against either Air Force or UNLV again in the first round. And even if we were to drop the UNLV game, I still think we end up with at least the 8 seed, though that doesn't really matter since we'd be playing the 9 seed. After that I don't know if it much matters whether we end up playing BSU, CSU, or Nevada. All would be tough, but winnable games.



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Re: Tournament seeding

Post by NVAggie » February 27th, 2017, 10:51 am

I think we will be the 8 seed facing SJSU in the first round.



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Re: Tournament seeding

Post by bigwilly087 » February 27th, 2017, 11:03 am

I was just looking at the scenarios myself and was about to post before I saw you beat me to it. Forgive me for restating some of what BBD posted, but I agree the 7 seed looks extremely likely.

UPDATE: Thanks for BBD for pointing out that I had a tiebreaker incorrect.

Below are the 4 most likely scenarios based on some assumptions. Note that in all scenarios that include the below assumptions, we end up as the 7 seed.

Assumptions:
Tues
CSU beats WYO

Wed
SDSU beats AF
NEV beats SJSU
USU beats UNLV

Sat
Fresno beats UNLV

Games that matter:
Tue Fresno @ Boise
Sat CSU @ NEV

FSU/CSU win

USU Tourney Opponents
1st Rd. AF
2nd Rd. NEV

FSU/NEV win

USU Tourney Opponents
1st Rd. AF
2nd Rd. CSU

BSU/CSU win

USU Tourney Opponents
1st Rd. AF
2nd Rd. NEV

BSU/NEV win

USU Tourney Opponents
1st Rd. AF
2nd Rd. BSU
Last edited by bigwilly087 on February 27th, 2017, 12:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.



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Re: Tournament seeding

Post by bigwilly087 » February 27th, 2017, 11:12 am

Best case imo, is playing getting the 7 seed with Air Force 11 seed, Nevada 2 seed and Boise 3 seed. We would play those 3 teams in that order baring a Boise loss to the 6 seed.
Last edited by bigwilly087 on February 27th, 2017, 1:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.



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Re: Tournament seeding

Post by slcagg » February 27th, 2017, 11:35 am

bigwilly087 wrote:Just noticed I didn't take into account the very real possibility that BSU wins out (Fresno & UNLV), and would be the 2 seed in the scenarios CSU loses to Nevada...don't have time right now to update the above, but something to keep in mind.

Based on how we played against them, I would rather play Nevada or BSU than CSU.

Best case imo, is scenario 3 listed above (in this scenario the CSU/BSU tiebreaker doesn't matter, and NEV has tiebreaker over BSU)
In this scenario, we get the 7 seed and play Air Force, then Nevada, then likely BSU. All games we COULD win.
Yes this is exactly what I hope what happens. We get the 7 seed and Boise gets the 2 seed. Play Air Force first round. Nevada is the most talented team in the league imo. We need to beat unlv on Wednesday.

If Wyoming and usu both finish 8-10, what is the tie breaker?



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Re: Tournament seeding

Post by BigBlueDart » February 27th, 2017, 12:00 pm

bigwilly087 wrote: WYO/CSU win
WYO 7
USU 8
SJSU 9

USU Tourney Opponents
1st Rd. SJSU
2nd Rd. CSU
I don't think this one is right. I think if all your assumptions hold true (specifically, that we beat UNLV and Wyoming loses to CSU) then we are assured the 7 seed regardless of the result of your games of interest. With another win we are 8-10. With a loss to CSU, but a win against SJSU, Wyoming would also be 8-10. We split the series with them, but Wyoming would have no wins against Nevada or CSU (the two teams fighting for #1), while we have the Nevada win. That gives us the tie-breaker. Am I missing something here?



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Re: Tournament seeding

Post by AngusAg » February 27th, 2017, 12:05 pm

The only thing that matters to me is who do you think we'll be playing on Saturday? The rest is road kill.



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Re: Tournament seeding

Post by JonnyCienPesos » February 27th, 2017, 12:10 pm

My question is: if we somehow end up in a 3/4 way tie for 6th what is the tiebreak scenario?


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Re: Tournament seeding

Post by BigBlueDart » February 27th, 2017, 12:31 pm

JonnyCienPesos wrote:My question is: if we somehow end up in a 3/4 way tie for 6th what is the tiebreak scenario?


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The first step is to take the record of each team against all the others in that group. So, in a 4-way tie with us, SJSU, Wyoming, and SDSU, our record would be 2-3 against them. SDSU would have a record of 4-1, which would beat all three, so they would get the 6th seed. After that it goes to a 3-way tie. If Wyoming were to lose to CSU, but beat SJSU (and SJSU had beaten Nevada) then Wyoming would win the 3-way tie with a 3-1 record against us and SJSU. But, if instead Wyoming beats CSU, but loses to SJSU (and SJSU loses to Nevada) then they would have a 2-2 record, and our 2-1 record would win us the tie-breaker.

In a 3-way tie between us, SDSU, and Wyoming, we would have a 1-3 record, SDSU a 3-0 record, and Wyoming a 1-2 record. SDSU wins again.

In a 3-way tie between us, SDSU, and SJSU, we would have a 1-2 record, SDSU a 2-1 record, and SJSU a 1-2 record. SDSU wins again.

The 6 seed is off the table for us.



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Re: Tournament seeding

Post by bigwilly087 » February 27th, 2017, 12:33 pm

BigBlueDart wrote:
bigwilly087 wrote: WYO/CSU win
WYO 7
USU 8
SJSU 9

USU Tourney Opponents
1st Rd. SJSU
2nd Rd. CSU
I don't think this one is right. I think if all your assumptions hold true (specifically, that we beat UNLV and Wyoming loses to CSU) then we are assured the 7 seed regardless of the result of your games of interest. With another win we are 8-10. With a loss to CSU, but a win against SJSU, Wyoming would also be 8-10. We split the series with them, but Wyoming would have no wins against Nevada or CSU (the two teams fighting for #1), while we have the Nevada win. That gives us the tie-breaker. Am I missing something here?
You are 100% correct. I will update my post. Not sure what I missed but I thought WYO had tiebreaker over us for some reason.

Post has been updated, with the 2 games in question now Fresno @ Boise and CSU @ Nev.



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Re: Tournament seeding

Post by utaggies » February 27th, 2017, 12:51 pm

JonnyCienPesos wrote:My question is: if we somehow end up in a 3/4 way tie for 6th what is the tiebreak scenario?


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I'll play. The first effort in determining a multi-team tie is to see if the head-to-head record can break the tie. Once the winner of that tie-breaker is resolved, the remaining teams compete to break their ties.

3-way tie between USU/SJS and Wyoming for 7th, 8th and 9th place with everyone having an 8-10 record.
For this to happen USU has got to beat UNLV; SJS has to beat Wyoming (or beat Nevada); and Wyoming has to split its games with CSU and SJS. The more likely scenario is that SJS drops both its remaining games and winds up with sole possession of 9th place. But for the sake of conjecture let's assume SJS loses to Nevada and beats Wyoming while Wyoming beats CSU and loses to SJS.

Head-to-head (or head-to-head-to-head) records are first examined. USU would be 2-1 against the other two while SJS would be 1-2 and Wyoming would be 2-2. USU would get the 7th seed, Wyoming would get the 8th seed by virtue of splitting their games against CSU (the highest seeded Wyoming win), and SJS would get the 9th seed.

If Wyoming wins both its remaining games, it gets the 7th seed unless SDS drops its two remaining games. If they both tie at 9-9, SDS has the head-to-head tie-breaker over Wyoming.

4-way tie for 6th, 7th, 8th and 9th place with everyone having an 8-10 record
If SDS does drop both its remaining games, USU beats UNLV, Wyoming beats CSU but loses to SJS and SJS beats Wyoming and loses to Nevada-- the head-to-head-to-head-to-head records would be as follows:
SDS: 4-1
Wyoming: 2-3
USU: 2-3
SJS: 3-2

SDS would get the 6th seed. The remaining 3-way tie would then be resolved as already spelled out above.



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Re: Tournament seeding

Post by utaggies » February 27th, 2017, 12:53 pm

utaggies wrote:
JonnyCienPesos wrote:My question is: if we somehow end up in a 3/4 way tie for 6th what is the tiebreak scenario?


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I'll play. The first effort in determining a multi-team tie is to see if the head-to-head record can break the tie. Once the winner of that tie-breaker is resolved, the remaining teams compete to break their ties.

3-way tie between USU/SJS and Wyoming for 7th, 8th and 9th place with everyone having an 8-10 record.
For this to happen USU has got to beat UNLV; SJS has to beat Wyoming (or beat Nevada); and Wyoming has to split its games with CSU and SJS. The more likely scenario is that SJS drops both its remaining games and winds up with sole possession of 9th place. But for the sake of conjecture let's assume SJS loses to Nevada and beats Wyoming while Wyoming beats CSU and loses to SJS.

Head-to-head (or head-to-head-to-head) records are first examined. USU would be 2-1 against the other two while SJS would be 1-2 and Wyoming would be 2-2. USU would get the 7th seed, Wyoming would get the 8th seed by virtue of splitting their games against CSU (the highest seeded Wyoming win), and SJS would get the 9th seed.

If Wyoming wins both its remaining games, it gets the 7th seed unless SDS drops its two remaining games. If they both tie at 9-9, SDS has the head-to-head tie-breaker over Wyoming.

4-way tie for 6th, 7th, 8th and 9th place with everyone having an 8-10 record
If SDS does drop both its remaining games, USU beats UNLV, Wyoming beats CSU but loses to SJS and SJS beats Wyoming and loses to Nevada-- the head-to-head-to-head-to-head records would be as follows:
SDS: 4-1
Wyoming: 2-3
USU: 2-3
SJS: 3-2

SDS would get the 6th seed. The remaining 3-way tie would then be resolved as already spelled out above.
Sorry. BBD already hashed this out while I was composing my post.



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Re: Tournament seeding

Post by BigBlueDart » February 27th, 2017, 1:19 pm

utaggies wrote:Sorry. BBD already hashed this out while I was composing my post.
I'm just that good. :cool2:



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Re: Tournament seeding

Post by Blitz79 » February 27th, 2017, 5:29 pm

So first round is 10 vs 11

second round is winner vs 7?
8 vs 9

third round?



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Re: Tournament seeding

Post by Aglicious » February 27th, 2017, 5:33 pm

Alexb wrote:So first round is 10 vs 11

second round is winner vs 7?
8 vs 9

third round?
Here's the bracket : 2017 MWC Tourney Bracket



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Re: Tournament seeding

Post by GUS » February 28th, 2017, 10:22 pm

With CSU beating Wyoming tonight, USU is in good shape for at least a tie for 7th place. I think USU has the tiebreaker over both SJSU and Wyoming if I'm correct.



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Re: Tournament seeding

Post by ProvoAggie » February 28th, 2017, 10:27 pm

GUS wrote:With CSU beating Wyoming tonight, USU is in good shape for at least a tie for 7th place. I think USU has the tiebreaker over both SJSU and Wyoming if I'm correct.
We do. We beat SJSU in our only meeting so that beats them. We split with Wyoming but we have a win over Nevada which is going to be a top 2 team...Wyoming has no wins over top 2 teams.



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Re: Tournament seeding

Post by mcaggie1 » March 1st, 2017, 11:17 pm

At this point....who cares?



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Re: Tournament seeding

Post by ProvoAggie » March 1st, 2017, 11:22 pm

We locked up the 8 tonight and will play the loser of the Wyoming/San Jose game on Saturday

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Re: Tournament seeding

Post by NVAggie » March 2nd, 2017, 9:27 am

NVAggie wrote:I think we will be the 8 seed facing SJSU in the first round.
It's never fun to be right about the Aggies losing...I guess Saturday will tell if I was fully correct.
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Re: Tournament seeding

Post by bigwilly087 » March 2nd, 2017, 11:28 am

ProvoAggie wrote:We locked up the 8 tonight and will play the loser of the Wyoming/San Jose game on Saturday

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I guess at this point, our best case is Wyoming and Nevada winning on Saturday. I think we match up better with San Jose and Nevada than we do Wyoming/CSU



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