Aggie Net Ratings So Far

This forum is for Basketball discussion only. Other topics will be moved to the appropriate forum.
User avatar
ChicAggie
Posts: 2064
Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 1:18 pm
Location: Chicago

Aggie Net Ratings So Far

Post by ChicAggie » November 14th, 2018, 10:09 am

From the FWIW Department, I know we're only three games in against mediocre competition, but here are the current Offensive Ratings (points scored per 100 possessions), Defensive Ratings (points allowed per 100 possessions), and Net Ratings (difference between ORtg and DRtg) for the Aggies so far:

Player.........ORtg....DRtg.....NRtg
QTaylor......159.1.....88.4.....+70.7
JBean........154.3.....80.1.....+74.2
BMiller.......152.8...100.2.....+52.6
DBrown.....149.9.....94.0.....+55.9
SMerrill.....149.9.....94.3.....+55.6
APorter......130.2.....95.6....+34.6
DBrito........130.1.....87.1....+43.0
JKnight.....128.9.....86.4....+42.5
BFakira......126.4....95.6....+30.8
NQueta.....107.8.....85.7....+22.1
TKnight.......91.0....95.4...... -4.4
CAinge........80.0....94.5.... -14.5

The only players who have not contributed positively for the Aggies so far this season are Tauriawn and Ainge. Some of those numbers are absolutely ridiculous, but we are only three games in and they will certainly change dramatically as the season wears on. I like what I see so far.


"Good is the enemy of great.” ~ Jim Collins

gametime12
Posts: 112
Joined: February 1st, 2018, 8:50 am

Re: Aggie Net Ratings So Far

Post by gametime12 » November 14th, 2018, 10:46 am

ChicAggie wrote:
November 14th, 2018, 10:09 am
From the FWIW Department, I know we're only three games in against mediocre competition, but here are the current Offensive Ratings (points scored per 100 possessions), Defensive Ratings (points allowed per 100 possessions), and Net Ratings (difference between ORtg and DRtg) for the Aggies so far:

Player.........ORtg....DRtg.....NRtg
QTaylor......159.1.....88.4.....+70.7
JBean........154.3.....80.1.....+74.2
BMiller.......152.8...100.2.....+52.6
DBrown.....149.9.....94.0.....+55.9
SMerrill.....149.9.....94.3.....+55.6
APorter......130.2.....95.6....+34.6
DBrito........130.1.....87.1....+43.0
JKnight.....128.9.....86.4....+42.5
BFakira......126.4....95.6....+30.8
NQueta.....107.8.....85.7....+22.1
TKnight.......91.0....95.4...... -4.4
CAinge........80.0....94.5.... -14.5

The only players who have not contributed positively for the Aggies so far this season are Tauriawn and Ainge. Some of those numbers are absolutely ridiculous, but we are only three games in and they will certainly change dramatically as the season wears on. I like what I see so far.
Is this information online somewhere or did you calculate it yourself? Great info, and thank you for the time it must've taken to calculate that if you did it yourself!



User avatar
AggiesForever
2015 Kickoff Pick'em Champion
Posts: 1726
Joined: January 1st, 1997, 12:00 am

Re: Aggie Net Ratings So Far

Post by AggiesForever » November 14th, 2018, 11:17 am

I'm not worried about T Knight's performance. He'll perform. Ainge is about where I thought he would be. Can't shoot a lick.



User avatar
MetsJetsAggies
Posts: 5743
Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 1:39 am

Re: Aggie Net Ratings So Far

Post by MetsJetsAggies » November 14th, 2018, 12:50 pm

gametime12 wrote:
November 14th, 2018, 10:46 am
ChicAggie wrote:
November 14th, 2018, 10:09 am
From the FWIW Department, I know we're only three games in against mediocre competition, but here are the current Offensive Ratings (points scored per 100 possessions), Defensive Ratings (points allowed per 100 possessions), and Net Ratings (difference between ORtg and DRtg) for the Aggies so far:

Player.........ORtg....DRtg.....NRtg
QTaylor......159.1.....88.4.....+70.7
JBean........154.3.....80.1.....+74.2
BMiller.......152.8...100.2.....+52.6
DBrown.....149.9.....94.0.....+55.9
SMerrill.....149.9.....94.3.....+55.6
APorter......130.2.....95.6....+34.6
DBrito........130.1.....87.1....+43.0
JKnight.....128.9.....86.4....+42.5
BFakira......126.4....95.6....+30.8
NQueta.....107.8.....85.7....+22.1
TKnight.......91.0....95.4...... -4.4
CAinge........80.0....94.5.... -14.5

The only players who have not contributed positively for the Aggies so far this season are Tauriawn and Ainge. Some of those numbers are absolutely ridiculous, but we are only three games in and they will certainly change dramatically as the season wears on. I like what I see so far.
Is this information online somewhere or did you calculate it yourself? Great info, and thank you for the time it must've taken to calculate that if you did it yourself!
Teamrankings and sports reference have em



User avatar
MetsJetsAggies
Posts: 5743
Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 1:39 am

Re: Aggie Net Ratings So Far

Post by MetsJetsAggies » November 14th, 2018, 12:51 pm

Quinn Taylor has quietly been an elite offensive efficiency guy every year. I'm not surprised to see him take another step forward in his senior season, he takes good shots and makes them a majority of the time...plus he's a good rebounder



User avatar
treesap32
Moderator
Posts: 14057
Joined: July 28th, 2005, 1:00 am
Location: Washington D.C.
Contact:

Re: Aggie Net Ratings So Far

Post by treesap32 » November 14th, 2018, 5:29 pm

MetsJetsAggies wrote:Quinn Taylor has quietly been an elite offensive efficiency guy every year. I'm not surprised to see him take another step forward in his senior season, he takes good shots and makes them a majority of the time...plus he's a good rebounder
Quoted for truth.

Taylor doesn't get the credit that he deserves from a lot of Aggie fans. He's been great for us.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk





User avatar
dyedblue
Posts: 6686
Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 4:21 pm

Re: Aggie Net Ratings So Far

Post by dyedblue » November 14th, 2018, 6:17 pm

I chatted with an assistant coach during the Homecoming parade. I asked him who had surprised him the most and it was Quin. The guy doesn't look the part, but he is a hard worker and is extremly smart. He is a great player for us.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


“The winning team has a dedication. It will have a core of veteran players who set the standards. They will not accept defeat.” --Merlin Olsen

User avatar
ChicAggie
Posts: 2064
Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 1:18 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: Aggie Net Ratings So Far

Post by ChicAggie » November 14th, 2018, 8:40 pm

Love me some Quinn.
Last edited by ChicAggie on November 14th, 2018, 10:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.


"Good is the enemy of great.” ~ Jim Collins

User avatar
AGGIEinIOWA
Posts: 770
Joined: November 17th, 2010, 10:50 am

Re: Aggie Net Ratings So Far

Post by AGGIEinIOWA » November 14th, 2018, 9:19 pm

I’ve been impressed by how good things seem to happen when Bean is on the court. His energy and effort is contagious. I think if he sticks around he’ll work himself into a big role before he’s done, like Quin has.



User avatar
treesap32
Moderator
Posts: 14057
Joined: July 28th, 2005, 1:00 am
Location: Washington D.C.
Contact:

Re: Aggie Net Ratings So Far

Post by treesap32 » November 14th, 2018, 10:10 pm

It's Quinn.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk




dogie
Posts: 2677
Joined: November 4th, 2010, 7:56 pm

Re: Aggie Net Ratings So Far

Post by dogie » November 15th, 2018, 6:09 am

treesap32 wrote:
November 14th, 2018, 10:10 pm
It's Quinn.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk
Wasn’t Quin first recruited by Stu?



User avatar
treesap32
Moderator
Posts: 14057
Joined: July 28th, 2005, 1:00 am
Location: Washington D.C.
Contact:

Re: Aggie Net Ratings So Far

Post by treesap32 » November 15th, 2018, 6:14 am

dogie wrote:
treesap32 wrote:
November 14th, 2018, 10:10 pm
It's Quinn.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk
Wasn’t Quin first recruited by Stu?
Yes, I believe it was before he recruited Stahl.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk




User avatar
treesap32
Moderator
Posts: 14057
Joined: July 28th, 2005, 1:00 am
Location: Washington D.C.
Contact:

Re: Aggie Net Ratings So Far

Post by treesap32 » November 17th, 2018, 1:32 pm

Looks like the Statesman also thinks it's spelled with one "N".



Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk




NVAggie
Posts: 14183
Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 8:09 am
Location: Where the sagebrush grows!

Re: Aggie Net Ratings So Far

Post by NVAggie » November 19th, 2018, 11:53 am

They are getting their Quin/nn's mixed up. Quin is the center on the football team.



User avatar
ChicAggie
Posts: 2064
Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 1:18 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: Aggie Net Ratings So Far

Post by ChicAggie » January 6th, 2019, 2:05 pm

I have been looking at the Per 100 Possession and Advanced Stats for the Ags so far this season and during conference play and see some interesting numbers: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/sc ... /2019.html

Not surprisingly the obvious Aggie cream has risen to the top as the season has progressed, with the one notable surprise being Justin Bean (albeit in limited action - only 64 minutes so far, the 2nd fewest minutes on the team ahead of only Alek Johnson).

In limited minutes, Bean has the highest Net Rating on the season and in the Aggie's two conference games so far. He seems to be our Dennis Rodman: not the most gifted offensive player, but his activity has been amazing and he absolutely wins the GATA belt for the season to date. He leads the team in PER (Player Efficiency Rating) at 34.3 (Merrill is 2nd at 25.1); ORtg (points produced per 100 possessions) at 137 (Merrill is 2nd at 132); DRtg (points allowed per 100 possessions) at 80 (Queta is 2nd at 82.7); NetRtg (the difference between ORtg and DRtg) at 57 (Merrill is 2nd at 37.7); plus/minus at 14.3 (Queta is 2nd at 10.2); Win Shares/40 at .335 (Merrill is 2nd at .268); rebounds per 100 possessions with 29.2 TRB (Queta is 2nd with 19.2 TRB); and steals per 100 possessions at 4.3 (JK3 is 2nd at 3.7). He is 2nd on the team in fewest turnovers per 100 possessions at 1.7 (Miller is 1st at 1.0); blocks per 100 possessions at 1.7 (Queta is 1st at 5.6); and free throw attempts per 100 possessions at 8.6 (JK3 is 1st at 11). He is also 5th on the team in FG% at .500 (behind Queta, Brown, Taylor, and Merrill). Not sure what happens to these numbers with increased playing time, but he has gotten real minutes against starters in the past couple of games (23 minutes - which is more than Ainge, TK, Fakira, and Johnson and nearly the same as Brown and Brito), and his numbers have stayed at or near the top of the pack in every one of these categories.

Miller has come around nicely over the past several games, and is actually 2nd on the team behind Bean in Net Rating after two conference games. Despite defenses focused on shutting down Merrill, he remains an extremely positive force for the Ags with a plus 19.8 Net Rating after two conference games. And though Queta needs to learn how to stay on the court for longer stretches, he has been a force in the middle and a model of efficiency in scoring down low. While Quinn struggled against Nevada, his output against AF was the X factor. Given his consistent production for the Ags for years, I expect him to continue to shine. In his four seasons in an Aggie uniform, Taylor has had a positive plus/minus number every season and is fourth on the team this season at +7.5 behind only Bean (+14.3), Queta (+10.2), and Merrill (+8.9). Behind Taylor, the dropoff is fairly significant: Brown at +3.1.

The biggest concern so far is that our PG play has been historically brutal: in my opinion easily the worst in the modern history of Aggie basketball (at least in my own history of watching the Aggies starting in 1978). Each of Ainge, Porter, and TK have struggled mightily on the season -- and two games into conference play, production from the PG position has been even worse than it was in the OOC schedule. In two conference games the NetRtg for the three PGs has been crazy bad: -96.3 for TK, -77.8 for Ainge, and -26.6 for Porter. Player Efficiency Ratings have been similarly awful: -12.0 for TK, -8.2 for Ainge, and +4.9 for Porter (again, 15.0 is AVERAGE). Both TK and Ainge have NEGATIVE win shares during conference play and Porter's is a pitiful .006/40. None of them can hit a 3P shot to save their lives. For the season, Porter sits at .214 3P%, TK is shooting .182 and Ainge is at .133 (after going 0-9 last season). The three of them have COMBINED to average 4.1 assists per game in 37.2 combined minutes to go along with 3 turnovers (Merrill averages that many assists by himself in fewer minutes), for an A/TO ratio of 1.25 (for comparison's sake, the current NCAA leader has an A/TO ratio of 8.83, the maligned Marcel Davis had a ratio of 1.86, and a bench warmer like Viko Noma'aea had a ratio of 1.50; Merrill's is 2.14). And Ainge is actually getting MORE fouls per 40 minutes in conference play than Queta (5.7 to 4.8). While I do think Ainge is "scrappy" and he has looked better this season than last, I don't think we can count on any of these three to lead this team next season without significant improvements. I think Smith has been a miracle worker to get the wins he has from this team despite poor PG play. Given Smith's prodigious coaching skills, I suppose it is entirely possible he could turn one or more of these player into productive D1 players, but I am not optimistic given what I have seen.


"Good is the enemy of great.” ~ Jim Collins

User avatar
treesap32
Moderator
Posts: 14057
Joined: July 28th, 2005, 1:00 am
Location: Washington D.C.
Contact:

Re: Aggie Net Ratings So Far

Post by treesap32 » January 6th, 2019, 2:41 pm

Excellent post, ChicAggie. Interesting to see the continued great numbers coming from Bean and Taylor. Especially Bean given his increased role recently.

It's brutally apparent that we need a legit PG as soon as possible. Unfortunately Ashworth isn't expected to join until 2020. We better bring in one or two JC PGs who can play next season if we want to be true competitors for a championship.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk




User avatar
MetsJetsAggies
Posts: 5743
Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 1:39 am

Re: Aggie Net Ratings So Far

Post by MetsJetsAggies » January 6th, 2019, 11:57 pm

ChicAggie wrote:
January 6th, 2019, 2:05 pm

Not sure what happens to these numbers with increased playing time, but he has gotten real minutes against starters in the past couple of games (23 minutes - which is more than Ainge, TK, Fakira, and Johnson and nearly the same as Brown and Brito), and his numbers have stayed at or near the top of the pack in every one of these categories.
There is a section for conference per 40 minute and 100 possession stats, to get a better idea for how Bean has performed with increased minutes the past 2 games. Not quite as god-like, but still really solid


Image



User avatar
MetsJetsAggies
Posts: 5743
Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 1:39 am

Re: Aggie Net Ratings So Far

Post by MetsJetsAggies » January 7th, 2019, 12:00 am

Also agree wholeheartedly with the PG stuff. Even a Shane Rector would transform this team, or a Brockeith Pane type. It is 100% holding us back and there doesn't seem to be an easy solution. The guys we have are keeping us afloat, but it's going to pose a problem if we have any hope to win close, tougher games or somehow make the tournament.

I really think this team looked pretty lethal with JK3 semi running point, or at least guarding the point. No one on our team can play the 1 offensively, or defensively outside of Sam and JK3 IMO. TK has shown flashes but is very inconsistent. Brito is OK too but also offensively challenged and defensively matches up better on a wing, which is OK when Sam is on the floor to guard a PG.

IF JK3 can get his act together, I like our chances against anyone. He provides speed, defense, and can get to the rim better than anyone other than Sam. We are missing his play on both ends right now when you consider how much time we have to use Ainge/Porter at the point, and no depth behind Sam really either



USUBlue
13=13
Posts: 4150
Joined: January 10th, 2011, 3:05 pm

Re: Aggie Net Ratings So Far

Post by USUBlue » January 7th, 2019, 12:25 am

MetsJetsAggies wrote:
January 6th, 2019, 11:57 pm
ChicAggie wrote:
January 6th, 2019, 2:05 pm

Not sure what happens to these numbers with increased playing time, but he has gotten real minutes against starters in the past couple of games (23 minutes - which is more than Ainge, TK, Fakira, and Johnson and nearly the same as Brown and Brito), and his numbers have stayed at or near the top of the pack in every one of these categories.
There is a section for conference per 40 minute and 100 possession stats, to get a better idea for how Bean has performed with increased minutes the past 2 games. Not quite as god-like, but still really solid


Image
As he gets more minutes, his numbers will drop particularly since he isn't a player can create offense other than putbacks. Still one of our best 7-8 guys unfortunately.



User avatar
ChicAggie
Posts: 2064
Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 1:18 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: Aggie Net Ratings So Far

Post by ChicAggie » January 7th, 2019, 8:24 am

MetsJetsAggies wrote:
January 6th, 2019, 11:57 pm
ChicAggie wrote:
January 6th, 2019, 2:05 pm

Not sure what happens to these numbers with increased playing time, but he has gotten real minutes against starters in the past couple of games (23 minutes - which is more than Ainge, TK, Fakira, and Johnson and nearly the same as Brown and Brito), and his numbers have stayed at or near the top of the pack in every one of these categories.
There is a section for conference per 40 minute and 100 possession stats, to get a better idea for how Bean has performed with increased minutes the past 2 games. Not quite as god-like, but still really solid
Image
I don't mean to be a dick, but yeah, I made exactly the same point: "I have been looking at the Per 100 Possession and Advanced Stats for the Ags so far this season and during conference play . . . he has gotten real minutes against starters in the past couple of games (23 minutes - which is more than Ainge, TK, Fakira, and Johnson and nearly the same as Brown and Brito), and his numbers have stayed at or near the top of the pack in every one of these categories."

When I said "not sure what happens to these numbers with increased playing time," I meant I'm not sure what happens over an extended period of time -- not just two games.

EDIT: My original post originally included the cutouts of both Per 100 and Advanced stats for both the entire season and conference play, but I couldn't get them to attach, so I simply included the link instead.
Last edited by ChicAggie on January 7th, 2019, 8:35 am, edited 2 times in total.


"Good is the enemy of great.” ~ Jim Collins

User avatar
ChicAggie
Posts: 2064
Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 1:18 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: Aggie Net Ratings So Far

Post by ChicAggie » January 7th, 2019, 8:25 am

USUBlue wrote:
January 7th, 2019, 12:25 am
As he gets more minutes, his numbers will drop . . . .
The prophet speaketh.


"Good is the enemy of great.” ~ Jim Collins

User avatar
ChicAggie
Posts: 2064
Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 1:18 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: Aggie Net Ratings So Far

Post by ChicAggie » January 7th, 2019, 8:33 am

MetsJetsAggies wrote:
January 7th, 2019, 12:00 am
Also agree wholeheartedly with the PG stuff. Even a Shane Rector would transform this team, or a Brockeith Pane type. It is 100% holding us back and there doesn't seem to be an easy solution. The guys we have are keeping us afloat, but it's going to pose a problem if we have any hope to win close, tougher games or somehow make the tournament.

I really think this team looked pretty lethal with JK3 semi running point, or at least guarding the point. No one on our team can play the 1 offensively, or defensively outside of Sam and JK3 IMO. TK has shown flashes but is very inconsistent. Brito is OK too but also offensively challenged and defensively matches up better on a wing, which is OK when Sam is on the floor to guard a PG.

IF JK3 can get his act together, I like our chances against anyone. He provides speed, defense, and can get to the rim better than anyone other than Sam. We are missing his play on both ends right now when you consider how much time we have to use Ainge/Porter at the point, and no depth behind Sam really either
Agreed. Don't love Brito at the point (poor A/TO ratio, not athletic enough to break down defenses) and he has really struggled the past four games (71 MP, 3-23 FG, 9 PTS, 6 A/8 TO). Someone on chat mentioned he may be under the weather. I hope that explains the worst 4-game stretch of his Aggie career and he returns to "solid" soon.


"Good is the enemy of great.” ~ Jim Collins

aggieup15
Posts: 60
Joined: January 4th, 2019, 6:29 pm

Re: Aggie Net Ratings So Far

Post by aggieup15 » January 7th, 2019, 10:36 am

ChicAggie wrote:I have been looking at the Per 100 Possession and Advanced Stats for the Ags so far this season and during conference play and see some interesting numbers: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/sc ... /2019.html

Not surprisingly the obvious Aggie cream has risen to the top as the season has progressed, with the one notable surprise being Justin Bean (albeit in limited action - only 64 minutes so far, the 2nd fewest minutes on the team ahead of only Alek Johnson).

In limited minutes, Bean has the highest Net Rating on the season and in the Aggie's two conference games so far. He seems to be our Dennis Rodman: not the most gifted offensive player, but his activity has been amazing and he absolutely wins the GATA belt for the season to date. He leads the team in PER (Player Efficiency Rating) at 34.3 (Merrill is 2nd at 25.1); ORtg (points produced per 100 possessions) at 137 (Merrill is 2nd at 132); DRtg (points allowed per 100 possessions) at 80 (Queta is 2nd at 82.7); NetRtg (the difference between ORtg and DRtg) at 57 (Merrill is 2nd at 37.7); plus/minus at 14.3 (Queta is 2nd at 10.2); Win Shares/40 at .335 (Merrill is 2nd at .268); rebounds per 100 possessions with 29.2 TRB (Queta is 2nd with 19.2 TRB); and steals per 100 possessions at 4.3 (JK3 is 2nd at 3.7). He is 2nd on the team in fewest turnovers per 100 possessions at 1.7 (Miller is 1st at 1.0); blocks per 100 possessions at 1.7 (Queta is 1st at 5.6); and free throw attempts per 100 possessions at 8.6 (JK3 is 1st at 11). He is also 5th on the team in FG% at .500 (behind Queta, Brown, Taylor, and Merrill). Not sure what happens to these numbers with increased playing time, but he has gotten real minutes against starters in the past couple of games (23 minutes - which is more than Ainge, TK, Fakira, and Johnson and nearly the same as Brown and Brito), and his numbers have stayed at or near the top of the pack in every one of these categories.

Miller has come around nicely over the past several games, and is actually 2nd on the team behind Bean in Net Rating after two conference games. Despite defenses focused on shutting down Merrill, he remains an extremely positive force for the Ags with a plus 19.8 Net Rating after two conference games. And though Queta needs to learn how to stay on the court for longer stretches, he has been a force in the middle and a model of efficiency in scoring down low. While Quinn struggled against Nevada, his output against AF was the X factor. Given his consistent production for the Ags for years, I expect him to continue to shine. In his four seasons in an Aggie uniform, Taylor has had a positive plus/minus number every season and is fourth on the team this season at +7.5 behind only Bean (+14.3), Queta (+10.2), and Merrill (+8.9). Behind Taylor, the dropoff is fairly significant: Brown at +3.1.

The biggest concern so far is that our PG play has been historically brutal: in my opinion easily the worst in the modern history of Aggie basketball (at least in my own history of watching the Aggies starting in 1978). Each of Ainge, Porter, and TK have struggled mightily on the season -- and two games into conference play, production from the PG position has been even worse than it was in the OOC schedule. In two conference games the NetRtg for the three PGs has been crazy bad: -96.3 for TK, -77.8 for Ainge, and -26.6 for Porter. Player Efficiency Ratings have been similarly awful: -12.0 for TK, -8.2 for Ainge, and +4.9 for Porter (again, 15.0 is AVERAGE). Both TK and Ainge have NEGATIVE win shares during conference play and Porter's is a pitiful .006/40. None of them can hit a 3P shot to save their lives. For the season, Porter sits at .214 3P%, TK is shooting .182 and Ainge is at .133 (after going 0-9 last season). The three of them have COMBINED to average 4.1 assists per game in 37.2 combined minutes to go along with 3 turnovers (Merrill averages that many assists by himself in fewer minutes), for an A/TO ratio of 1.25 (for comparison's sake, the current NCAA leader has an A/TO ratio of 8.83, the maligned Marcel Davis had a ratio of 1.86, and a bench warmer like Viko Noma'aea had a ratio of 1.50; Merrill's is 2.14). And Ainge is actually getting MORE fouls per 40 minutes in conference play than Queta (5.7 to 4.8). While I do think Ainge is "scrappy" and he has looked better this season than last, I don't think we can count on any of these three to lead this team next season without significant improvements. I think Smith has been a miracle worker to get the wins he has from this team despite poor PG play. Given Smith's prodigious coaching skills, I suppose it is entirely possible he could turn one or more of these player into productive D1 players, but I am not optimistic given what I have seen.
I agree this is an excellent post, thanks for taking the time for the research. It will be interesting to see how the numbers change as the season progresses. Hopefully Ainge or Porter adjust better and as a team we are able to limit our turnovers. Very happy with our guys and their abilities thus far considering


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



aggieup15
Posts: 60
Joined: January 4th, 2019, 6:29 pm

Re: Aggie Net Ratings So Far

Post by aggieup15 » January 7th, 2019, 10:39 am

MetsJetsAggies wrote:Also agree wholeheartedly with the PG stuff. Even a Shane Rector would transform this team, or a Brockeith Pane type. It is 100% holding us back and there doesn't seem to be an easy solution. The guys we have are keeping us afloat, but it's going to pose a problem if we have any hope to win close, tougher games or somehow make the tournament.

I really think this team looked pretty lethal with JK3 semi running point, or at least guarding the point. No one on our team can play the 1 offensively, or defensively outside of Sam and JK3 IMO. TK has shown flashes but is very inconsistent. Brito is OK too but also offensively challenged and defensively matches up better on a wing, which is OK when Sam is on the floor to guard a PG.

IF JK3 can get his act together, I like our chances against anyone. He provides speed, defense, and can get to the rim better than anyone other than Sam. We are missing his play on both ends right now when you consider how much time we have to use Ainge/Porter at the point, and no depth behind Sam really either
True, he is definitely the next best for getting to the rim. It would be nice to see him back on the court and see how he does running that position. He’s a great athlete and at the point he would just need a little more discipline and he would be golden. Hope he’s able to get back sooner than later


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



NVAggie
Posts: 14183
Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 8:09 am
Location: Where the sagebrush grows!

Re: Aggie Net Ratings So Far

Post by NVAggie » January 7th, 2019, 12:16 pm

Actually, he won't be back sooner or later.



User avatar
MetsJetsAggies
Posts: 5743
Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 1:39 am

Re: Aggie Net Ratings So Far

Post by MetsJetsAggies » January 7th, 2019, 11:13 pm

Yeah this limits our upside. Maybe TK steps up. Our lack of any decent PG is gonna sink a pretty damn solid team this year, sucks



AggieBlueMint
Posts: 20
Joined: January 4th, 2019, 11:27 pm

Re: Aggie Net Ratings So Far

Post by AggieBlueMint » January 7th, 2019, 11:15 pm

ChicAggie wrote:
January 6th, 2019, 2:05 pm
I have been looking at the Per 100 Possession and Advanced Stats for the Ags so far this season and during conference play and see some interesting numbers: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/sc ... /2019.html

Not surprisingly the obvious Aggie cream has risen to the top as the season has progressed, with the one notable surprise being Justin Bean (albeit in limited action - only 64 minutes so far, the 2nd fewest minutes on the team ahead of only Alek Johnson).

In limited minutes, Bean has the highest Net Rating on the season and in the Aggie's two conference games so far. He seems to be our Dennis Rodman: not the most gifted offensive player, but his activity has been amazing and he absolutely wins the GATA belt for the season to date. He leads the team in PER (Player Efficiency Rating) at 34.3 (Merrill is 2nd at 25.1); ORtg (points produced per 100 possessions) at 137 (Merrill is 2nd at 132); DRtg (points allowed per 100 possessions) at 80 (Queta is 2nd at 82.7); NetRtg (the difference between ORtg and DRtg) at 57 (Merrill is 2nd at 37.7); plus/minus at 14.3 (Queta is 2nd at 10.2); Win Shares/40 at .335 (Merrill is 2nd at .268); rebounds per 100 possessions with 29.2 TRB (Queta is 2nd with 19.2 TRB); and steals per 100 possessions at 4.3 (JK3 is 2nd at 3.7). He is 2nd on the team in fewest turnovers per 100 possessions at 1.7 (Miller is 1st at 1.0); blocks per 100 possessions at 1.7 (Queta is 1st at 5.6); and free throw attempts per 100 possessions at 8.6 (JK3 is 1st at 11). He is also 5th on the team in FG% at .500 (behind Queta, Brown, Taylor, and Merrill). Not sure what happens to these numbers with increased playing time, but he has gotten real minutes against starters in the past couple of games (23 minutes - which is more than Ainge, TK, Fakira, and Johnson and nearly the same as Brown and Brito), and his numbers have stayed at or near the top of the pack in every one of these categories.

Miller has come around nicely over the past several games, and is actually 2nd on the team behind Bean in Net Rating after two conference games. Despite defenses focused on shutting down Merrill, he remains an extremely positive force for the Ags with a plus 19.8 Net Rating after two conference games. And though Queta needs to learn how to stay on the court for longer stretches, he has been a force in the middle and a model of efficiency in scoring down low. While Quinn struggled against Nevada, his output against AF was the X factor. Given his consistent production for the Ags for years, I expect him to continue to shine. In his four seasons in an Aggie uniform, Taylor has had a positive plus/minus number every season and is fourth on the team this season at +7.5 behind only Bean (+14.3), Queta (+10.2), and Merrill (+8.9). Behind Taylor, the dropoff is fairly significant: Brown at +3.1.

The biggest concern so far is that our PG play has been historically brutal: in my opinion easily the worst in the modern history of Aggie basketball (at least in my own history of watching the Aggies starting in 1978). Each of Ainge, Porter, and TK have struggled mightily on the season -- and two games into conference play, production from the PG position has been even worse than it was in the OOC schedule. In two conference games the NetRtg for the three PGs has been crazy bad: -96.3 for TK, -77.8 for Ainge, and -26.6 for Porter. Player Efficiency Ratings have been similarly awful: -12.0 for TK, -8.2 for Ainge, and +4.9 for Porter (again, 15.0 is AVERAGE). Both TK and Ainge have NEGATIVE win shares during conference play and Porter's is a pitiful .006/40. None of them can hit a 3P shot to save their lives. For the season, Porter sits at .214 3P%, TK is shooting .182 and Ainge is at .133 (after going 0-9 last season). The three of them have COMBINED to average 4.1 assists per game in 37.2 combined minutes to go along with 3 turnovers (Merrill averages that many assists by himself in fewer minutes), for an A/TO ratio of 1.25 (for comparison's sake, the current NCAA leader has an A/TO ratio of 8.83, the maligned Marcel Davis had a ratio of 1.86, and a bench warmer like Viko Noma'aea had a ratio of 1.50; Merrill's is 2.14). And Ainge is actually getting MORE fouls per 40 minutes in conference play than Queta (5.7 to 4.8). While I do think Ainge is "scrappy" and he has looked better this season than last, I don't think we can count on any of these three to lead this team next season without significant improvements. I think Smith has been a miracle worker to get the wins he has from this team despite poor PG play. Given Smith's prodigious coaching skills, I suppose it is entirely possible he could turn one or more of these player into productive D1 players, but I am not optimistic given what I have seen.
ChicAggie, I love this analysis. Thanks for sharing.



User avatar
MetsJetsAggies
Posts: 5743
Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 1:39 am

Re: Aggie Net Ratings So Far

Post by MetsJetsAggies » January 7th, 2019, 11:25 pm

ChicAggie wrote:
January 7th, 2019, 8:24 am
MetsJetsAggies wrote:
January 6th, 2019, 11:57 pm
ChicAggie wrote:
January 6th, 2019, 2:05 pm

Not sure what happens to these numbers with increased playing time, but he has gotten real minutes against starters in the past couple of games (23 minutes - which is more than Ainge, TK, Fakira, and Johnson and nearly the same as Brown and Brito), and his numbers have stayed at or near the top of the pack in every one of these categories.
There is a section for conference per 40 minute and 100 possession stats, to get a better idea for how Bean has performed with increased minutes the past 2 games. Not quite as god-like, but still really solid
Image
I don't mean to be a dick, but yeah, I made exactly the same point: "I have been looking at the Per 100 Possession and Advanced Stats for the Ags so far this season and during conference play . . . he has gotten real minutes against starters in the past couple of games (23 minutes - which is more than Ainge, TK, Fakira, and Johnson and nearly the same as Brown and Brito), and his numbers have stayed at or near the top of the pack in every one of these categories."

When I said "not sure what happens to these numbers with increased playing time," I meant I'm not sure what happens over an extended period of time -- not just two games.

EDIT: My original post originally included the cutouts of both Per 100 and Advanced stats for both the entire season and conference play, but I couldn't get them to attach, so I simply included the link instead.
My bad, must have missed it!



User avatar
ChicAggie
Posts: 2064
Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 1:18 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: Aggie Net Ratings So Far

Post by ChicAggie » January 8th, 2019, 10:59 am

MetsJetsAggies wrote:
January 7th, 2019, 11:25 pm
My bad, must have missed it!
:cheers:


"Good is the enemy of great.” ~ Jim Collins

Post Reply Previous topicNext topic