UNM-Nevada

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UNM-Nevada

Post by ineptimusprime » January 5th, 2019, 6:51 pm

UNM pummeling Nevada at the Pit right now....



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Re: UNM-Nevada

Post by Aggie formerly in Hawaii » January 5th, 2019, 7:03 pm

Interesting to see if it holds. Nevada has had some bad first halves this season like this one, but has always managed to come back and win. Will this one be different?



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Re: UNM-Nevada

Post by ProvoAggie » January 5th, 2019, 7:10 pm

Nevada will still pull it off.

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Re: UNM-Nevada

Post by dogie » January 5th, 2019, 7:42 pm

Nevada isn’t looking good at all. Maybe they can overcome a 16-point deficit in less than ten minutes, but that doesn’t happen often. New Mexico hasn’t had a good season, but they look as big and athletic as Nevada, whereas USU does not.



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Re: UNM-Nevada

Post by ProvoAggie » January 5th, 2019, 7:43 pm

I take back my earlier statement.

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Re: UNM-Nevada

Post by ineptimusprime » January 5th, 2019, 7:44 pm

This is not making sense at all. UNM has been stinky butthole this entire season.

Where the hell was this play from UNM when the conference needed it in the OOC? Can’t stand the UNMs, UNLVs, and SDSUs of the world that s*** the bed in the OOC and become contenders in conference.



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Re: UNM-Nevada

Post by ProvoAggie » January 5th, 2019, 7:47 pm

ineptimusprime wrote:This is not making sense at all. UNM has been stinky butthole this entire season.

Where the hell was this play from UNM when the conference needed it in the OOC? Can’t stand the UNMs, UNLVs, and SDSUs of the world that s*** the bed in the OOC and become contenders in conference.
This looks like a game where Nevada is beating themselves. Can't even make a free throw.

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Re: UNM-Nevada

Post by Aggie formerly in Hawaii » January 5th, 2019, 7:48 pm

ineptimusprime wrote:
January 5th, 2019, 7:44 pm
This is not making sense at all. UNM has been stinky butthole this entire season.

Where the hell was this play from UNM when the conference needed it in the OOC? Can’t stand the UNMs, UNLVs, and SDSUs of the world that s*** the bed in the OOC and become contenders in conference.
It is extremely difficult to run the table. Even in a down MW, there are gonna be games on the road where it just doesn't go your way. Same thing happened to Kansas today.



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Re: UNM-Nevada

Post by dogie » January 5th, 2019, 7:55 pm

If you didn’t know which team was which, you’d never guess that Nevada is the one that is ranked #6 and New Mexico has lost six games.



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Re: UNM-Nevada

Post by MetsJetsAggies » January 5th, 2019, 7:58 pm

Aggie formerly in Hawaii wrote:
January 5th, 2019, 7:48 pm
ineptimusprime wrote:
January 5th, 2019, 7:44 pm
This is not making sense at all. UNM has been stinky butthole this entire season.

Where the hell was this play from UNM when the conference needed it in the OOC? Can’t stand the UNMs, UNLVs, and SDSUs of the world that s*** the bed in the OOC and become contenders in conference.
It is extremely difficult to run the table. Even in a down MW, there are gonna be games on the road where it just doesn't go your way. Same thing happened to Kansas today.
This. Same reason why predicting 14-4 for us is a long shot, it's tough to win on the road in the MW even when teams are relatively down



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Re: UNM-Nevada

Post by MetsJetsAggies » January 5th, 2019, 7:59 pm

ineptimusprime wrote:
January 5th, 2019, 7:44 pm
This is not making sense at all. UNM has been stinky butthole this entire season.

Where the hell was this play from UNM when the conference needed it in the OOC? Can’t stand the UNMs, UNLVs, and SDSUs of the world that s*** the bed in the OOC and become contenders in conference.
They learned this from their brothers in Las Cruces



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Re: UNM-Nevada

Post by MetsJetsAggies » January 5th, 2019, 8:02 pm

We wore them out in that hard fought, 23 point win



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The Pit is still the toughest venue to win in MW.

Post by Aggiealum13 » January 5th, 2019, 8:18 pm

Even in down years New Mexico is tough there, and down right close to unbeatable there when they're really good. The Spectrum had years where they could compete with The Pit in that category but I have to still give edge to Pit.



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Re: UNM-Nevada

Post by Aggie formerly in Hawaii » January 5th, 2019, 8:21 pm

MetsJetsAggies wrote:
January 5th, 2019, 7:58 pm
Aggie formerly in Hawaii wrote:
January 5th, 2019, 7:48 pm
ineptimusprime wrote:
January 5th, 2019, 7:44 pm
This is not making sense at all. UNM has been stinky butthole this entire season.

Where the hell was this play from UNM when the conference needed it in the OOC? Can’t stand the UNMs, UNLVs, and SDSUs of the world that s*** the bed in the OOC and become contenders in conference.
It is extremely difficult to run the table. Even in a down MW, there are gonna be games on the road where it just doesn't go your way. Same thing happened to Kansas today.
This. Same reason why predicting 14-4 for us is a long shot, it's tough to win on the road in the MW even when teams are relatively down
Yep or 16-2 as one poster was predicting. You got to truly be great not just to win the big games, but to avoid letdowns on the road. Even some of our best teams under Stew had some head scratching road losses.



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Re: UNM-Nevada

Post by Blue Sage » January 5th, 2019, 9:11 pm

Sadly Nevada just isn't as good as we had been told. To bad for the MWC.



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Re: UNM-Nevada

Post by Aggie formerly in Hawaii » January 5th, 2019, 9:50 pm

Blue Sage wrote:
January 5th, 2019, 9:11 pm
Sadly Nevada just isn't as good as we had been told. To bad for the MWC.
They are still a very good team that has a shot at a deep run in March.



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Re: UNM-Nevada

Post by bpd » January 5th, 2019, 9:59 pm

Here is the deal. Nevada is still good and an off night on the road. New Mexico is super talented that has really good players that haven't jelled yet. They were picked to finish second in the conference and haven't lived up to it. Tonight, the talent came together with a big, loud crowd behind them. Can they keep it up. We will see.



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Re: UNM-Nevada

Post by USUBlue » January 5th, 2019, 10:37 pm

bpd wrote:
January 5th, 2019, 9:59 pm
Here is the deal. Nevada is still good and an off night on the road. New Mexico is super talented that has really good players that haven't jelled yet. They were picked to finish second in the conference and haven't lived up to it. Tonight, the talent came together with a big, loud crowd behind them. Can they keep it up. We will see.
CSU has some very good players also; so does UNLV, Fresno, San Diego St., etc. It's going to be hard to win on the road. I think 11-7 and a Top 4 finish would be a very good year.



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Re: UNM-Nevada

Post by 2004AG » January 5th, 2019, 10:46 pm

ineptimusprime wrote:This is not making sense at all. UNM has been stinky butthole this entire season.

Where the hell was this play from UNM when the conference needed it in the OOC? Can’t stand the UNMs, UNLVs, and SDSUs of the world that s*** the bed in the OOC and become contenders in conference.
Yep. Seems to happen every year.


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Re: UNM-Nevada

Post by MetsJetsAggies » January 5th, 2019, 11:14 pm

USUBlue wrote:
January 5th, 2019, 10:37 pm
bpd wrote:
January 5th, 2019, 9:59 pm
Here is the deal. Nevada is still good and an off night on the road. New Mexico is super talented that has really good players that haven't jelled yet. They were picked to finish second in the conference and haven't lived up to it. Tonight, the talent came together with a big, loud crowd behind them. Can they keep it up. We will see.
CSU has some very good players also; so does UNLV, Fresno, San Diego St., etc. It's going to be hard to win on the road. I think 11-7 and a Top 4 finish would be a very good year.
No reason we shouldn't finish 2nd or 3rd, those teams will beat up on each other too...
But 11-7 might be good enough for 3rd. I'm thinking 12-6 and 2nd



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Re: UNM-Nevada

Post by USUBlue » January 6th, 2019, 12:12 am

MetsJetsAggies wrote:
January 5th, 2019, 11:14 pm
USUBlue wrote:
January 5th, 2019, 10:37 pm
bpd wrote:
January 5th, 2019, 9:59 pm
Here is the deal. Nevada is still good and an off night on the road. New Mexico is super talented that has really good players that haven't jelled yet. They were picked to finish second in the conference and haven't lived up to it. Tonight, the talent came together with a big, loud crowd behind them. Can they keep it up. We will see.
CSU has some very good players also; so does UNLV, Fresno, San Diego St., etc. It's going to be hard to win on the road. I think 11-7 and a Top 4 finish would be a very good year.
No reason we shouldn't finish 2nd or 3rd, those teams will beat up on each other too...
But 11-7 might be good enough for 3rd. I'm thinking 12-6 and 2nd
You weren't one of the crazy 14-4 or 16-2 guys with us getting an at-large NCAA berth? There's a lot of naïve on this board.



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Re: UNM-Nevada

Post by MetsJetsAggies » January 6th, 2019, 12:16 am

USUBlue wrote:
January 6th, 2019, 12:12 am
MetsJetsAggies wrote:
January 5th, 2019, 11:14 pm
USUBlue wrote:
January 5th, 2019, 10:37 pm
bpd wrote:
January 5th, 2019, 9:59 pm
Here is the deal. Nevada is still good and an off night on the road. New Mexico is super talented that has really good players that haven't jelled yet. They were picked to finish second in the conference and haven't lived up to it. Tonight, the talent came together with a big, loud crowd behind them. Can they keep it up. We will see.
CSU has some very good players also; so does UNLV, Fresno, San Diego St., etc. It's going to be hard to win on the road. I think 11-7 and a Top 4 finish would be a very good year.
No reason we shouldn't finish 2nd or 3rd, those teams will beat up on each other too...
But 11-7 might be good enough for 3rd. I'm thinking 12-6 and 2nd
You weren't one of the crazy 14-4 or 16-2 guys with us getting an at-large NCAA berth? There's a lot of naïve on this board.
I don't think I posted an official prediction. We are capable of going 14-4, we will be favored in almost every game outside of Fresno road, NM road, and Reno at home. But even those spreads will be <5. I think 12-6 is most likely with losses to NM, SDSU, and FSU on the road. Reno at home is winnable tbh, we will see if we can get some Spectrum magic going for that one. Add in a couple surprise losses, maybe CSU or Boise, and I see 6 losses. 14-4 best case, 12-6 likely, 11-7 or worse would be bad and I can only really see that if Queta or Sam get injured



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Re: UNM-Nevada

Post by MetsJetsAggies » January 6th, 2019, 12:18 am

14-4 gets us into the tournament as an at large IMO, might need a win or 2 in the conf tourney too. 13-5 we will be on the bubble but likely out, 12-6 outside looking in and would need to win the conf tourney



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Re: UNM-Nevada

Post by USUBlue » January 6th, 2019, 12:27 am

MetsJetsAggies wrote:
January 6th, 2019, 12:18 am
14-4 gets us into the tournament as an at large IMO, might need a win or 2 in the conf tourney too. 13-5 we will be on the bubble but likely out, 12-6 outside looking in and would need to win the conf tourney
We are not getting into the NCAA tourney, no matter what our MWC record is. No marquee wins (Top 25) equals no tourney unless we win the conference tournament. How quickly people forget the 25-3 year and that was a much better team, and the NCAA selections have only become more P6 biased. We'll be lucky to get in the NIT.



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Re: UNM-Nevada

Post by MetsJetsAggies » January 6th, 2019, 12:33 am

USUBlue wrote:
January 6th, 2019, 12:27 am
MetsJetsAggies wrote:
January 6th, 2019, 12:18 am
14-4 gets us into the tournament as an at large IMO, might need a win or 2 in the conf tourney too. 13-5 we will be on the bubble but likely out, 12-6 outside looking in and would need to win the conf tourney
We are not getting into the NCAA tourney, no matter what our MWC record is. No marquee wins (Top 25) equals no tourney unless we win the conference tournament. How quickly people forget the 25-3 year and that was a much better team, and the NCAA selections have only become more P6 biased. We'll be lucky to get in the NIT.
The lack of marquee wins could certainly be an issue, beating Nevada at home would go a longgg way if we are at 12-13 wins come that game. Otherwise you might be right, but 14-4 would likely put us in the top 35-40 in NET, Kenpom, etc. Would be hard to leave us out but not impossible obviously given the selection committee history and hate for non power conf teams traditionally. I think the selection process might be slightly different than it was back then though, people love Cinderella stories/teams from non power conferences going far in March. The Nevada and Loyola-Chi runs were great last year. Plus the entire Western basketball landscape is crazy down this year and the Pac-12 might legitimately be a 1 bid league, maybe 2. WCC too. That can't hurt our chances at an at large this year even though the MW is down



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Re: The Pit is still the toughest venue to win in MW.

Post by dogie » January 6th, 2019, 12:51 am

Aggiealum13 wrote:
January 5th, 2019, 8:18 pm
Even in down years New Mexico is tough there, and down right close to unbeatable there when they're really good. The Spectrum had years where they could compete with The Pit in that category but I have to still give edge to Pit.
So, the Lobos beat the spread by over 40 points. I’m wondering if that will happen again anywhere in the country during conference play this season.



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Re: UNM-Nevada

Post by treesap32 » January 8th, 2019, 1:48 pm

USUBlue wrote:
January 6th, 2019, 12:27 am
MetsJetsAggies wrote:
January 6th, 2019, 12:18 am
14-4 gets us into the tournament as an at large IMO, might need a win or 2 in the conf tourney too. 13-5 we will be on the bubble but likely out, 12-6 outside looking in and would need to win the conf tourney
We are not getting into the NCAA tourney, no matter what our MWC record is. No marquee wins (Top 25) equals no tourney unless we win the conference tournament. How quickly people forget the 25-3 year and that was a much better team, and the NCAA selections have only become more P6 biased. We'll be lucky to get in the NIT.
Using Ken Pomeroy metrics that identify marquee wins we do have one marquee win and another good win this year. He rates neutral wins higher than home wins, and road wins higher than both (just as the committee does). Our marquee and good wins are as follows:

vs. St Mary's (neutral) (Marquee win)
@ UC Irvine (good win)

Our neutral court win over St. Mary's is currently considered a marquee win since St. Mary's is a top 50 team and it was a neutral court. Our win over Irvine on the road is considered a "good" win since they are top 100 and it was on the road.

His site and metrics are on the selection committee's evaluation sheets and are deemed by many to be the best metrics available.

We already lost chances at these marquee and good wins:

vs Arizona State (Good)
@ BYU (Good)
@ Houston (Marquee)
@ Nevada (Marquee)

Our chances for other marquee and good wins are as follows:
@ Fresno State (Marquee win)
@ San Diego State (Good win)
@ Boise State (Good win)
vs Nevada (Marquee Win)

In order to get an at large bid we need to win the majority of our remaining games and at least 3 of those 4 chances listed above, in my opinion. If we do that we'll have at least 5 good to marquee wins on our resume, a good record (likely 23-26 wins depending on the MW tourney), and a high NET rating (along with sagarin/pomeroy/etc). Even then it'll still depend on a lot of other factors such as how many conference tournament upsets happen.

If we don't win at least 3 of those games we likely won't get in unless we do really well in the MW tournament including beating Nevada.



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Re: UNM-Nevada

Post by MetsJetsAggies » January 8th, 2019, 2:08 pm

If we beat Nevada at home, we can win one of those other 3 road games and be fine I'd think. Barring other bad losses



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Re: UNM-Nevada

Post by Aggie-Man » January 8th, 2019, 4:30 pm

I say we just run the tournament and be in. It could happen.



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