Net Rankings

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Re: Net Rankings

Post by Usu0505 » February 1st, 2019, 9:10 am

UtahStizzle wrote:
January 28th, 2019, 8:23 pm
Usu0505 wrote:I have been trying to stay away from comparing last year to this year but since its been brought up again prob my biggest issue with duryea was he couldnt get the team motivated and bringing their A game night in and night out. He actually had some decent wins (i.e. at unlv and in the conference tourney) last year but you never knew which aggie team was going to show up. So far Coach Smith has done a great job at getting the guys ready and in the zone to play every game, minus BYU which i think was more just stage fright.

Its refreshing to know that we wont have let downs in games we should for sure win and will show up and play well for the big games also.
I think it was just byu playing really well. Look at their home record and games.
Probably both. They definitely are not a team that should be able to beat us up in a game. Even on the road
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Re: Net Rankings

Post by dogie » February 6th, 2019, 5:59 am

The Aggies jumped up to #34 from #37 with the win last night. They were as low as #40 or #41 last week. This is a good position to be with about four weeks left in the regular season.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketbal ... t-rankings



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Re: Net Rankings

Post by NVAggie » February 6th, 2019, 8:01 am

I will be interested to see how the committee looks at the NET rankings for NCAA inclusion.



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Re: Net Rankings

Post by utaggies » February 6th, 2019, 8:11 am

NVAggie wrote:
February 6th, 2019, 8:01 am
I will be interested to see how the committee looks at the NET rankings for NCAA inclusion.
I suspect somewhat like the RPI. In other words, ignore it when convenient and use it when you need justification.
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Re: Net Rankings

Post by aceofspadeskb » February 6th, 2019, 8:19 am

There are 36 at-large spots in the tournament. I think if we want to make it as an at-large bid we will need to be in the high 20's in the NET. Utah State doesn't turn heads, and the committee is in the business of making money.



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Re: Net Rankings

Post by NVAggie » February 6th, 2019, 8:59 am

utaggies wrote:
February 6th, 2019, 8:11 am
I suspect somewhat like the RPI. In other words, ignore it when convenient and use it when you need justification.
That is why I'm not getting too excited about our ranking.



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Re: Net Rankings

Post by flying_scotsman2.0 » February 6th, 2019, 9:07 am

People are starting to talk about USU. Just keep winning and the rest will take care of itself.



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Re: Net Rankings

Post by MetsJetsAggies » February 6th, 2019, 12:42 pm

aceofspadeskb wrote:
February 6th, 2019, 8:19 am
There are 36 at-large spots in the tournament. I think if we want to make it as an at-large bid we will need to be in the high 20's in the NET. Utah State doesn't turn heads, and the committee is in the business of making money.
Many of the top 36 will be getting automatic bids, roughly 7-8



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Re: Net Rankings

Post by MetsJetsAggies » February 6th, 2019, 12:44 pm

NVAggie wrote:
February 6th, 2019, 8:59 am
utaggies wrote:
February 6th, 2019, 8:11 am
I suspect somewhat like the RPI. In other words, ignore it when convenient and use it when you need justification.
That is why I'm not getting too excited about our ranking.
The one difference is they specifically created the NET rating new for this season. It'd be pretty asinine to do that and then ignore it right away, but maybe that's wishful thinking. RPI was easier to ignore/justify ignoring because it was a flawed rating system, if they ignore this one too then what was the point of changing anything?



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Re: Net Rankings

Post by dogie » February 6th, 2019, 1:26 pm

MetsJetsAggies wrote:
February 6th, 2019, 12:42 pm
aceofspadeskb wrote:
February 6th, 2019, 8:19 am
There are 36 at-large spots in the tournament. I think if we want to make it as an at-large bid we will need to be in the high 20's in the NET. Utah State doesn't turn heads, and the committee is in the business of making money.
Many of the top 36 will be getting automatic bids, roughly 7-8
Both of these posts are relevant. If the selection process were based entirely on the ratings, the top 41 or 42 teams would get at-large invitations or would have automatic bids. Any team below that point would need to have an automatic bid.

In practice, the bubble is from about #32 to about #55 and, of course the better the rating, the better the resume. Teams below about #55 are generally not going to make it, and anything about #32 and higher will be almost always invited. There are some outliers.

In this case, if USU were to be in the low 30s or better, their chances are extremely good. In addition to having a very respectable NET Rating, the rest of the resume would be quite good. Achieving a NET Rating that good would require continued winning, but wouldn’t require running the table.



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Re: Net Rankings

Post by aceofspadeskb » February 6th, 2019, 3:35 pm

MetsJetsAggies wrote:
February 6th, 2019, 12:42 pm
aceofspadeskb wrote:
February 6th, 2019, 8:19 am
There are 36 at-large spots in the tournament. I think if we want to make it as an at-large bid we will need to be in the high 20's in the NET. Utah State doesn't turn heads, and the committee is in the business of making money.
Many of the top 36 will be getting automatic bids, roughly 7-8
True. Doesn't change the fact that Utah State doesn't turn heads like other schools ranked lower in NET. Look at the teams immediately behind the aggies in NET right now:
35. NC State
36. Ohio State
37. TCU
38. Oklahoma
39. Ole Miss
40. St. John's
41. Texas
42. Florida
43. UCF
44. Indiana
45. Alabama

Of those, I'm betting that all but UCF would jump us in the committee's mind.



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Re: Net Rankings

Post by MetsJetsAggies » February 6th, 2019, 3:36 pm

We need the teams we've beaten to continue to do well. Specifically St Mary's (top 50), Fresno (top 100), Irvine and UVU (top 125 but not a great chance at breaking the top 100 unfortunately). A win over Reno would be a huge resume booster, our only loss outside of the top 100 right now is BYU and they could get back in the top 100 as they're around 104



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Re: Net Rankings

Post by utaggies » February 6th, 2019, 3:55 pm

While the NCAA states that NET will be the primary tool to evaluate teams, other metrics will be used including KenPom, Kevin Pauga’s Index (KPI), Sagarin, ESPN’s Power Index and as Dan Gavitt says, subjectivity (who knew?). This is how we rank out in these other metrics:

KPI: #53 (projected #2 seed in the NIT
Ken Pom: #39
Sagarin: #54 (before the FSU win)
NET: #34
ESPN: #48
Subjectivity: we’re screwed

All-in-all we’ve still got some work to do. I agree with MJA that OOC teams we’ve played need to continue to do well and that we need to keep winning, and hopefully beat the spread in our wins. We don’t need to beat Nevada to get in, but that would be a huge boost, not only to our credentials but in perhaps winnng a share of the conference regular season championship.



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Re: Net Rankings

Post by cache-aggie » February 6th, 2019, 4:12 pm

Unfortunately, I don't really think any of these rankings really matter... the only ranking that matters is what conference we are in. Right now, Mountain West means 1 bid - Nevada. Unless we can't pull the upset and beat them in the tourney (aka SDSU last year), then we are not going. I don't know what happened in the eyes of the committee between 2015 and before when we had multiple bids to 2016, and 2017 when there was only the bid for the tourney winner.
Think we had 5 in the tourney in 2014 or 2013. And now everyone is penciling in the MWC as a 1 bid league. I guess penciling in is the wrong term though, its Sharpie.
I remember back to 2003 or whenever that was that we were ranked in the top 25 and got snubbed because we lost in the championship game of the Big West.



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Re: Net Rankings

Post by SLB » February 6th, 2019, 9:43 pm

Net Rankings update
#33 Nebraska, #31 Baylor, and #26 Mississippi State lost.



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Re: Net Rankings

Post by MetsJetsAggies » February 6th, 2019, 9:55 pm

SLB wrote:
February 6th, 2019, 9:43 pm
Net Rankings update
#33 Nebraska, #31 Baylor, and #26 Mississippi State lost.
As good as Nebraska's net rating may be, I'm not sure they can get in the tourney after going like 5-15 in conf play



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Re: Net Rankings

Post by dogie » February 6th, 2019, 10:01 pm

MetsJetsAggies wrote:
February 6th, 2019, 9:55 pm
SLB wrote:
February 6th, 2019, 9:43 pm
Net Rankings update
#33 Nebraska, #31 Baylor, and #26 Mississippi State lost.
As good as Nebraska's net rating may be, I'm not sure they can get in the tourney after going like 5-15 in conf play
Good observation. Nebraska is currently all alone in 13th place in the Big Ten. Fifteen years ago, I wouldn’t have guessed that 13th place in the Big Ten was a possibility for anyone. Nebraska has played itself out of the bubble.



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Re: Net Rankings

Post by SLB » February 6th, 2019, 10:01 pm

MetsJetsAggies wrote:
February 6th, 2019, 9:55 pm
SLB wrote:
February 6th, 2019, 9:43 pm
Net Rankings update
#33 Nebraska, #31 Baylor, and #26 Mississippi State lost.
As good as Nebraska's net rating may be, I'm not sure they can get in the tourney after going like 5-15 in conf play
Arizona State was in last year with a bad in-confernce record.



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Re: Net Rankings

Post by bigblue » February 6th, 2019, 10:06 pm

SLB wrote:Net Rankings update
#33 Nebraska, #31 Baylor, and #26 Mississippi State lost.
The real questions are which loses are at home and by how much?

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Last edited by bigblue on February 6th, 2019, 10:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.


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Re: Net Rankings

Post by ChicAggie » February 6th, 2019, 10:09 pm

bigblue wrote:
February 6th, 2019, 10:06 pm
are was the loses at home
Drinking and posting don't mix. ;)


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Re: Net Rankings

Post by bigblue » February 6th, 2019, 10:35 pm

ChicAggie wrote:
bigblue wrote:
February 6th, 2019, 10:06 pm
are was the loses at home
Drinking and posting don't mix. ;)
I blame failure to proof read and autocorrect. Although drinking is a good excuse. Image

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Re: Net Rankings

Post by SLB » February 7th, 2019, 1:11 pm

We are now #33 in the Net Rankings.



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Re: Net Rankings

Post by SectionBAggie » February 7th, 2019, 2:50 pm

It's interesting (to me anyway) that according to Net Rankings there are currently 20 teams with 7 or more true road wins . USU has 6. By comparison, the UN Wolf Pack has 8.

That list of 20 is led by #31 Lipscomb, #71 Vermont and #161 NJIT with 9 each.

Of those 20, not a single one is from the power 5 or 6 conferences.

#1 Virginia has 6. #2 Gonzaga has 5. #3 Duke has 4.

Because of this data, I suspect that the committee may look into finding a way to refine the importance of a road win.



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Re: Net Rankings

Post by Aglicious » February 7th, 2019, 5:08 pm

SectionBAggie wrote:
February 7th, 2019, 2:50 pm
It's interesting (to me anyway) that according to Net Rankings there are currently 20 teams with 7 or more true road wins . USU has 6. By comparison, the UN Wolf Pack has 8.

That list of 20 is led by #31 Lipscomb, #71 Vermont and #161 NJIT with 9 each.

Of those 20, not a single one is from the power 5 or 6 conferences.

#1 Virginia has 6. #2 Gonzaga has 5. #3 Duke has 4.

Because of this data, I suspect that the committee may look into finding a way to refine the importance of a road win.
I was looking at this very thing a couple of nights ago and was shocked at how few road games many of the "top teams" have played period, let alone how many they've won. The one that really stood out to me was Houston - they've played 22 total games and only been on the road 6 times... including ZERO neutral site games!! Nothing like playing 73% of your games at home.



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Re: Net Rankings

Post by treesap32 » February 7th, 2019, 8:03 pm

SectionBAggie wrote:
February 7th, 2019, 2:50 pm
It's interesting (to me anyway) that according to Net Rankings there are currently 20 teams with 7 or more true road wins . USU has 6. By comparison, the UN Wolf Pack has 8.

That list of 20 is led by #31 Lipscomb, #71 Vermont and #161 NJIT with 9 each.

Of those 20, not a single one is from the power 5 or 6 conferences.

#1 Virginia has 6. #2 Gonzaga has 5. #3 Duke has 4.

Because of this data, I suspect that the committee may look into finding a way to refine the importance of a road win.
The NCAA and Committee have been saying that they are going to start rewarding teams for going on the road and winning on the road. We'll see if that's actually the case or if they stick with the tried and true eye-test and hats-in-the-mall evaluation methods.



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Re: Net Rankings

Post by dyedblue » February 7th, 2019, 9:17 pm

I would love to see how many non-conference road games Michigan State played in the last 10 years.


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Re: Net Rankings

Post by NVAggie » February 7th, 2019, 9:20 pm

Nothing will change



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Re: Net Rankings

Post by utaggies » February 8th, 2019, 9:01 am

SLB wrote:
February 7th, 2019, 1:11 pm
We are now #33 in the Net Rankings.
I’ll believe in the be-all and end-all of NET when Wofford (#29) and Lipscomb (#31) receive at-large NCAA invites if they don’t win their conference tournaments.

BTW, we dropped in Sagarins from #54 to #55 after our FSU win.

TeamRankings projects the following probabilities for wins in our toughest remaining games:
Nevada - 37%
SDS (away) - 54%
BSU - 62%
CSU - 77%

Our games against NM, AFA, WYO and SDS (home) are all > 80% probabilities of wins.



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Re: Net Rankings

Post by ChicAggie » February 8th, 2019, 9:52 am

utaggies wrote:
February 8th, 2019, 9:01 am
BTW, we dropped in Sagarins from #54 to #55 after our FSU win.
Does Sagarin take "margin of victory" into account?


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Re: Net Rankings

Post by SectionBAggie » February 8th, 2019, 10:04 am

utaggies wrote:
February 8th, 2019, 9:01 am
Our games against NM, AFA, WYO and SDS (home) are all > 80% probabilities of wins.
Understanding that these are indeed only probabilities, if USU were to win only those four games and finish 12-6, BSU would have to finish 7-1 to move past the Aggies to the 5-seed. That's a tough climb.

CSU would have to go undefeated to even tie. That's even tougher than BSU's climb.

No other teams could catch USU.

A lofty view indeed for the team picked 9th.



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Re: Net Rankings

Post by utaggies » February 8th, 2019, 10:55 am

ChicAggie wrote:
February 8th, 2019, 9:52 am
utaggies wrote:
February 8th, 2019, 9:01 am
BTW, we dropped in Sagarins from #54 to #55 after our FSU win.
Does Sagarin take "margin of victory" into account?
Sagarin’ predictor model takes MOV into account. But apparently there is a “diminishing returns” element which prevents a team from benefiting from running up the score on a lesser team.

His Elo system, only took into account wins and losses. I do not see that he publishes this any longer. He included the Elo system (which is derived from the chess rating system) because the BCS was using him to help determine who would play in the championship game but they didn’t want MOV to be a factor. So in 2002 Sagarin used Elo while other predictors who had been part of the BCS selection dropped out rather than discontinue their MOV elements.



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Re: Net Rankings

Post by SpectrumMagic » February 9th, 2019, 10:35 pm

Arizona State beat Washington handing them first pac-12 loss after getting blown out by terrible WSU team



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Re: Net Rankings

Post by SLB » February 10th, 2019, 1:59 pm

We are #39 after losing.



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Re: Net Rankings

Post by dogie » February 14th, 2019, 3:34 pm

They are back up to #37, up one after beating Wyoming. They are now ahead of Lipscomb, so there are only six teams ahead of them from conferences outside what I’ll call the six high major conferences: P5 plus Big East. Those are Gonzaga, Houston, Nevada, Cincinnati, Buffalo and Wofford.

If the Aggies can win out except for a home loss to Nevada and a loss in the conference championship game, I’m guessing they will finish at about #35, and quite possibly ahead of all of the schools I mentioned except for Gonzaga, Houston, Nevada and Cincinnati.

If they can win all games through the conference semifinals (including Nevada), I’m guessing they will be #25 to #28 going into the conference championship game.



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Re: Net Rankings

Post by dogie » February 18th, 2019, 11:28 am

Now they are back up to #34, which is a decent place to be in during late February.



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