Bracketology/Bubble Watch

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Bracketology/Bubble Watch

Post by FormerlyVegasAggie71 » February 5th, 2019, 12:27 pm

In Lunardi's updated bracket, we are the first team listed in the "Next Four Out" http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology

Also, for the first time in who knows how many years, we made bubble watch under the "work to do" category:

"Utah State Aggies

Sam Merrill and his teammates spent the better part of January beating up on the Mountain West's lower division. (To be sure, Utah State did win at New Mexico, a claim Nevada cannot make.) Now, however, things are about to get more challenging for Craig Smith's group. A tough road test at Fresno State is next, a game that could give the Aggies their best preparation leading up to next month's potentially profile-defining home game against the Wolf Pack."

Personally, I just don't think we are good enough to get in this year unless we can somehow win the MWC tourney. Regardless, being in the discussion in Feb is always fun.
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Re: Bracketology/Bubble Watch

Post by NVAggie » February 5th, 2019, 12:33 pm

Thank for posting. I got out of the habit of even looking at this stuff. I'm quite shocked that we are even being discussed. This has truly been a remarkable season.



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Re: Bracketology/Bubble Watch

Post by YoungBloodAggie » February 5th, 2019, 1:04 pm

FormerlyVegasAggie71 wrote:
February 5th, 2019, 12:27 pm
In Lunardi's updated bracket, we are the first team listed in the "Next Four Out" http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology

Also, for the first time in who knows how many years, we made bubble watch under the "work to do" category:

"Utah State Aggies

Sam Merrill and his teammates spent the better part of January beating up on the Mountain West's lower division. (To be sure, Utah State did win at New Mexico, a claim Nevada cannot make.) Now, however, things are about to get more challenging for Craig Smith's group. A tough road test at Fresno State is next, a game that could give the Aggies their best preparation leading up to next month's potentially profile-defining home game against the Wolf Pack."

Personally, I just don't think we are good enough to get in this year unless we can somehow win the MWC tourney. Regardless, being in the discussion in Feb is always fun.
If we beat Nevada and finish the regular season somewhere around 13-5 in conference, I think we could be seen as good enough for an at-large bid (although we'd be chewing our fingernails off on Selection Sunday with anything less than a MWCT finals appearance).


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Re: Bracketology/Bubble Watch

Post by utaggies » February 5th, 2019, 3:13 pm

13-5 won’t get us a sniff at an at-large bid. IMO only a 15-3 conference record will do that. That means beating Fresno St. tonight, finishing alone in second place AND winning at least two games in the conference tourney. Besides a loss to Nevada we can afford at most one other loss to a team not named Fresno.



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Re: Bracketology/Bubble Watch

Post by YoungBloodAggie » February 5th, 2019, 3:31 pm

utaggies wrote:
February 5th, 2019, 3:13 pm
13-5 won’t get us a sniff at an at-large bid. IMO only a 15-3 conference record will do that. That means beating Fresno St. tonight, finishing alone in second place AND winning at least two games in the conference tourney. Besides a loss to Nevada we can afford at most one other loss to a team not named Fresno.
Okay but how about a win against the #8 team in the country? Surely that will turn some heads on the selection committee, and a loss at Fresno or at CSU could be considered understandable.


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Re: Bracketology/Bubble Watch

Post by thansen » February 5th, 2019, 3:39 pm

YoungBloodAggie wrote:
February 5th, 2019, 3:31 pm
utaggies wrote:
February 5th, 2019, 3:13 pm
13-5 won’t get us a sniff at an at-large bid. IMO only a 15-3 conference record will do that. That means beating Fresno St. tonight, finishing alone in second place AND winning at least two games in the conference tourney. Besides a loss to Nevada we can afford at most one other loss to a team not named Fresno.
Okay but how about a win against the #8 team in the country? Surely that will turn some heads on the selection committee, and a loss at Fresno or at CSU could be considered understandable.
Especially if that win against the #8 team happens in the conference tourney.



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Re: Bracketology/Bubble Watch

Post by utaggies » February 5th, 2019, 3:55 pm

YoungBloodAggie wrote:
February 5th, 2019, 3:31 pm
utaggies wrote:
February 5th, 2019, 3:13 pm
13-5 won’t get us a sniff at an at-large bid. IMO only a 15-3 conference record will do that. That means beating Fresno St. tonight, finishing alone in second place AND winning at least two games in the conference tourney. Besides a loss to Nevada we can afford at most one other loss to a team not named Fresno.
Okay but how about a win against the #8 team in the country? Surely that will turn some heads on the selection committee, and a loss at Fresno or at CSU could be considered understandable.
Realistically, if we go 0-2 against Fresno we are not going to beat a vastly superior Nevada team, even in the Spectrum. The MWC is not getting three teams into the NCAA tourney. Losing to Fresno tonight would pretty much guarantee the Bulldogs finish ahead of us. We’d then have one shot for a bid, and that would be to win the conference tourney.

New Mexico beat Nevada but shouldn’t hold its breath for an NCAA invite. One win does not a season (or tourney) make.



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Re: Bracketology/Bubble Watch

Post by nvspuds » February 5th, 2019, 4:21 pm

Sorry..It will be better for Nevada if you lose tonight..While I think your lads can win this game tonight I will be pulling for the Dawgs..



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Re: Bracketology/Bubble Watch

Post by AngusAg » February 5th, 2019, 4:32 pm

nvspuds wrote:
February 5th, 2019, 4:21 pm
Sorry..It will be better for Nevada if you lose tonight..While I think your lads can win this game tonight I will be pulling for the Dawgs..
Great point! I hadn't even thought of it from that perspective. Funny how we get caught up in our own little worlds sometimes.



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Re: Bracketology/Bubble Watch

Post by aggies22 » February 5th, 2019, 9:29 pm

nvspuds wrote:
February 5th, 2019, 4:21 pm
Sorry..It will be better for Nevada if you lose tonight..While I think your lads can win this game tonight I will be pulling for the Dawgs..
Where's the dislike button for this one?



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Re: Bracketology/Bubble Watch

Post by Cuchelain » February 5th, 2019, 10:54 pm

AngusAg wrote:
February 5th, 2019, 4:32 pm
nvspuds wrote:
February 5th, 2019, 4:21 pm
Sorry..It will be better for Nevada if you lose tonight..While I think your lads can win this game tonight I will be pulling for the Dawgs..
Great point! I hadn't even thought of it from that perspective. Funny how we get caught up in our own little worlds sometimes.
That's a dose of much needed perspective there. We too often spend all of our time (selfishly) thinking about what would be best for just our team when we could be thinking about what would be best for all the other teams out there.



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Re: Bracketology/Bubble Watch

Post by MetsJetsAggies » February 5th, 2019, 10:56 pm

nvspuds wrote:
February 5th, 2019, 4:21 pm
Sorry..It will be better for Nevada if you lose tonight..While I think your lads can win this game tonight I will be pulling for the Dawgs..
Why tho?



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Re: Bracketology/Bubble Watch

Post by NAggsty Butler » February 5th, 2019, 11:19 pm

FormerlyVegasAggie71 wrote:
February 5th, 2019, 12:27 pm
In Lunardi's updated bracket, we are the first team listed in the "Next Four Out" http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology

Also, for the first time in who knows how many years, we made bubble watch under the "work to do" category:

"Utah State Aggies

Sam Merrill and his teammates spent the better part of January beating up on the Mountain West's lower division. (To be sure, Utah State did win at New Mexico, a claim Nevada cannot make.) Now, however, things are about to get more challenging for Craig Smith's group. A tough road test at Fresno State is next, a game that could give the Aggies their best preparation leading up to next month's potentially profile-defining home game against the Wolf Pack."

Personally, I just don't think we are good enough to get in this year unless we can somehow win the MWC tourney. Regardless, being in the discussion in Feb is always fun.
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Re: Bracketology/Bubble Watch

Post by FormerlyVegasAggie71 » February 6th, 2019, 10:39 am

NAggsty Butler wrote:
February 5th, 2019, 11:19 pm
FormerlyVegasAggie71 wrote:
February 5th, 2019, 12:27 pm
In Lunardi's updated bracket, we are the first team listed in the "Next Four Out" http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology

Also, for the first time in who knows how many years, we made bubble watch under the "work to do" category:

"Utah State Aggies

Sam Merrill and his teammates spent the better part of January beating up on the Mountain West's lower division. (To be sure, Utah State did win at New Mexico, a claim Nevada cannot make.) Now, however, things are about to get more challenging for Craig Smith's group. A tough road test at Fresno State is next, a game that could give the Aggies their best preparation leading up to next month's potentially profile-defining home game against the Wolf Pack."

Personally, I just don't think we are good enough to get in this year unless we can somehow win the MWC tourney. Regardless, being in the discussion in Feb is always fun.
Always appreciate a AD reference - one of the best shows ever.

Also, another media member is plugging our at large chances:
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Re: Bracketology/Bubble Watch

Post by ChicAggie » February 6th, 2019, 12:21 pm

I will personally guarantee to "like" any post with an AD reference.

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Re: Bracketology/Bubble Watch

Post by FormerlyVegasAggie71 » February 8th, 2019, 10:41 am

Updated Bracketology and Bubble Watch are out - even with the win at Fresno we stay in same spot in Bracketology. Still work to do section (obviously) in Bubble Watch, but it does mention the Fresno win.



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Re: Bracketology/Bubble Watch

Post by NVAggie » February 8th, 2019, 10:42 am

Just keep winning, just keep winning...

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Re: Bracketology/Bubble Watch

Post by TrueAggieman » February 8th, 2019, 11:54 am

Glad UCF didn’t get that win over Houston last night!


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Re: Bracketology/Bubble Watch

Post by ineptimusprime » February 8th, 2019, 8:34 pm

Brian Bennett on the Athletic has us as a 12 seed in a First Four game against UCF. I’d love to be in a First Four game. Would give us a real shot to win a game.

The bubble is reaaaaaalllly soft this year. We have a shot. Let’s see how it shakes out.



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Re: Bracketology/Bubble Watch

Post by NVAggie » February 8th, 2019, 8:36 pm

That is an important distinction to make from previous years. The bubble is soft and there aren’t many great western teams.



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Re: Bracketology/Bubble Watch

Post by GameFAQSAggie » February 8th, 2019, 11:38 pm

ineptimusprime wrote:
February 8th, 2019, 8:34 pm
Brian Bennett on the Athletic has us as a 12 seed in a First Four game against UCF. I’d love to be in a First Four game. Would give us a real shot to win a game.

The bubble is reaaaaaalllly soft this year. We have a shot. Let’s see how it shakes out.
Yeah, we would get the shot at UCF that we all wanted last fall. Just in a different sport!



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Re: Bracketology/Bubble Watch

Post by Blitz79 » February 9th, 2019, 9:56 am

The biggest shock in this article to me is that Nevada is a should be in and not a Lock. BS!



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Re: Bracketology/Bubble Watch

Post by AGGIEinIOWA » February 9th, 2019, 9:59 am

Hypothetical question. Who wins a neutral site game between Nevada and Gonzaga?



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Re: Bracketology/Bubble Watch

Post by JFWAggie » February 9th, 2019, 10:19 am

AGGIEinIOWA wrote:
February 9th, 2019, 9:59 am
Hypothetical question. Who wins a neutral site game between Nevada and Gonzaga?
Gonzaga



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Re: Bracketology/Bubble Watch

Post by AGGIEinIOWA » February 9th, 2019, 10:22 am

Blitz79 wrote:The biggest shock in this article to me is that Nevada is a should be in and not a Lock. BS!
Especially when ESPN is projecting them as a 2 seed.



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Bracketology/Bubble Watch

Post by Full » February 9th, 2019, 11:35 am

Blitz79 wrote:The biggest shock in this article to me is that Nevada is a should be in and not a Lock. BS!


The committee has Nevada at 14. That’s ridiculous. USU is going to have a really hard time getting in with the P5 and East coast bias.



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Bracketology/Bubble Watch

Post by scotlandog » February 9th, 2019, 11:57 am

Full wrote:
Blitz79 wrote:The biggest shock in this article to me is that Nevada is a should be in and not a Lock. BS!


The committee has Nevada at 14. That’s ridiculous. USU is going to have a really hard time getting in with the P5 and East coast bias.
Wow that is a huge slap in the face to Nevada. Rankings would have them as a 2 seed but they are placed down with teams ranked between 16-20.

TBH though, I don’t believe Nevada is the #6 team in the nation and think this is probably more accurate. I would be pissed though if it was us. I do believe Nevada is better than Houston though or at least as good. I would at least have Nevada as a 3 seed like Houston.


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Re: Bracketology/Bubble Watch

Post by dogie » February 9th, 2019, 3:13 pm

scotlandog wrote:
February 9th, 2019, 11:57 am
Full wrote:
Blitz79 wrote:The biggest shock in this article to me is that Nevada is a should be in and not a Lock. BS!


The committee has Nevada at 14. That’s ridiculous. USU is going to have a really hard time getting in with the P5 and East coast bias.
Wow that is a huge slap in the face to Nevada. Rankings would have them as a 2 seed but they are placed down with teams ranked between 16-20.

TBH though, I don’t believe Nevada is the #6 team in the nation and think this is probably more accurate. I would be pissed though if it was us. I do believe Nevada is better than Houston though or at least as good. I would at least have Nevada as a 3 seed like Houston.


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Nevada is #15 in the NET ratings, so this looks about right. These top 16 seeds track the NET ratings quite closely, which would be a good thing for USU.

Nevada has seven good wins this year, but no great wins. They beat USU (home), Fresno State (road), Arizona State (neutral), BYU (home), USC (road), Tulsa (neutral) and Utah (road). USU’s NET is 33 and the other six are 79 to 99. I don’t know what their best win is, but it’s either Fresno State or USU. If they win in Logan on March 2, that will be their marquee win this year.



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Re: Bracketology/Bubble Watch

Post by TrueAggieman » February 9th, 2019, 4:51 pm

Clemson, who is also on the bubble, got a big win over #11 Virginia Tech today. And Butler over Georgetown.


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Re: Bracketology/Bubble Watch

Post by scotlandog » February 9th, 2019, 5:29 pm

A lot of these other bubble teams have a lot more chances at good wins than we do. That’s puts us at a severe disadvantage and also makes that Nevada home game huge. We all knew this but as we lose ground to other bubble teams it will be the only thing that can even the field. Also, Nevada apparently isn’t getting the respect we thought they would be getting. We may not be able to make up enough ground even by beating Nevada.


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