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Final Stretch

Posted: February 7th, 2019, 9:52 am
by flying_scotsman2.0
I was just looking at the schedule. The game Saturday is our biggest game till the season finale with Nevada. If we can somehow knock of SDSU, we will have a very good shot of going undefeated until that final game. I also believe if we go undefeated up to that Nevada game we will be a lock for the tournament, and likely getting close to the top 25. Am I off base here?

Re: Final Stretch

Posted: February 7th, 2019, 10:15 am
by aggies22
With the hoops program being out of the spotlight for so long, I think it's really hard to gauge how we are thought of on a national scale.

Re: Final Stretch

Posted: February 7th, 2019, 10:24 am
by trombone_ninja
I think the only way we’re considered a lock for the NCAA tournament is if we win the conference tournament lol I don’t think an at-large bid is completely out of the realm of possibility, but it still seems highly unlikely to me

Re: Final Stretch

Posted: February 7th, 2019, 5:36 pm
by ThunderAggie
After reading and seeing our projections on multiple websites, it seems like everyone thinks the Nevada game is a must win to get into the tournament. I personally think we don't have too, but it all depends on the conference tourney. Here is what I think will need to happen in the regular season and then how we would need to do in MW tourney.

Win out - At large bid even if we lose in MW tournament, but reaching Semis or finals would make me feel much better come selection Sunday.

One loss (other than Nevada) - If we were to drop a game (preferably SDSU or BSU), but have a win over Nevada, we would definitely be in contention for an at large bid. We would probably need to win at least 1 game in the MW tourney and at least make the semis, but the championship would help.

One loss (Nevada) - If our one loss were to be against Nevada, that would mean we would have wins against BSU and SDSU, but those don't pop out as much. We need a signature win, and if that was the case, I think we would need to make it to the MW tourney championship. We would be sitting very stressed on selection Sunday if we didn't win the championship, but could still sneak is as one of the last 2 or 3.

Two losses - I guess if the two losses aren't against Nevada and we make the tourney championship and lose a nail biter to Nevada, we could sneak in...but most likely, we would need to win the conference for an automatic bid.

Two or more - Have to win conference tourney for the automatic bid!

Re: Final Stretch

Posted: February 7th, 2019, 7:39 pm
by ineptimusprime
It’s crazy we’re even in the discussion still in February. Just trying to enjoy it. Would be awesome to get to the dance, but my expectations are the NIT.

Re: Final Stretch

Posted: February 7th, 2019, 7:56 pm
by USU78
Sat, 2/9
@ SDSU tossup

Wed, 2/13
vs WYO should win

Sat, 2/16
@ AFA should win

Wed, 2/20
vs UNM should win

Sat, 2/23
@ BSU tossup

Tue, 2/26
vs SDSU should win

Sat, 3/2
vs NEV should lose

Tue, 3/5
@ CSU should win

6-2 (splitting the tossup games)

Re: Final Stretch

Posted: February 7th, 2019, 8:09 pm
by treesap32
flying_scotsman2.0 wrote:
February 7th, 2019, 9:52 am
I was just looking at the schedule. The game Saturday is our biggest game till the season finale with Nevada. If we can somehow knock of SDSU, we will have a very good shot of going undefeated until that final game. I also believe if we go undefeated up to that Nevada game we will be a lock for the tournament, and likely getting close to the top 25. Am I off base here?
While a win at SDSU would be big, I think a win at Boise State would be bigger. Currently Pomeroy ranks SDSU 154 and Boise State 149. The cutoff for Category B (good win) on the road appears to be beating a top 150 team. If we beat Boise and they remain top 150 that will look nice on our resume. If we beat SDSU on the road we need to hope they make top 150 for that to be considered a Category B win.

The win at Fresno was HUGE. That win and the win vs. St. Mary's are our two Category A victories so far this year. Currently, our only other Category B win is at Irvine.

Best case scenario is we win against Boise, SDSU, and Nevada and BSU & SDSU end up top 150. At that point we are in even if we slip up in another game in my opinion. I don't think conference tournament will matter at that point either. That is a tough task.

Re: Final Stretch

Posted: February 7th, 2019, 8:26 pm
by Pacobag
Unless we go undefeated the rest of regular conference play, I think it is really important that we finish #2 in conference and make the MW tourney final to get a decent shot at an at large. I’ve heard it said that the committee values teams that are peaking at the right time. A loss in our first MW tourney game would be bad.

It seems the MW is a likely 1-2 bid league this year. If Nevada doesn’t win the MW tourney, then I’d suspect Nevada and the tourney champs would be the only 2 MW teams in. If Nevada wins the tourney, then maybe the 2nd place team gets lucky and gets in too if they (we) play really strong from here on out.

Re: Final Stretch

Posted: February 7th, 2019, 10:18 pm
by 3futureaggies
I realized today that we will have a rest/prep time advantage over the rest of the conference going into the tournament. Our last game is Tuesday vs Colorado State, everyone else wraps up that Saturday. I have a feeling that Smith will take advantage of that.

Re: Final Stretch

Posted: February 7th, 2019, 10:21 pm
by bpd
Winning on the road is extremely hard. All of our road games will very difficult. SDSU plays like a top 25 team at home, road, different story. BSU seems to be a solid team, who just laid an egg the other night. Air Force has been more than solid at home. CSU is hitting their stride and are very good offensively. They gave Nevada a very good run last night. Remember they killed Fresno in Fort Collins.

Re: Final Stretch

Posted: February 7th, 2019, 10:32 pm
by buckfever
:( “Bull Hell I say”. I figure our toughest game
...... yep. The CSU game there
BFD. They are geared up to be ruiners of teams above in MWC Standings.

Re: Final Stretch

Posted: February 7th, 2019, 11:20 pm
by bluegrouse
Realistically, it will be next to impossible to make it through the rest of our schedule with only one more loss. There are at least 4 games that we could easily lose. Colorado State on the road in the last game will be very, very difficult.....

This team has so far outperformed my expectations that at this point I’m just enjoying the ride.