Perfect plan for making the Big Dance

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YoungBloodAggie
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Perfect plan for making the Big Dance

Post by YoungBloodAggie » February 12th, 2019, 3:01 pm

Lose to Nevada at home.

Hear me out. Everyone knows it's nearly impossible to beat a team three times in the same season, so we rope-a-dope those idiots from Reno by letting them beat us in Logan (soundly, if we have to), and then we jump on them in the finals of the MWC tournament.

Please send all thank you emails to my private message box when we make the tournament using this strategy.


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Re: Perfect plan for making the Big Dance

Post by Aggiesbleedblue » February 12th, 2019, 3:09 pm

I disagree, with how weak the bubble is I truly believe if the Aggies can win out in the regular season they will have a great shot at an at-large. That would put us at 25-6 (15-3) heading to Vegas



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Re: Perfect plan for making the Big Dance

Post by RigAggie » February 12th, 2019, 3:09 pm

I want to beat them in Logan and then in the Tourney as well. As you say, it's hard to beat a team 3 times, so it would only be 2 times we curb stomp them.

;)
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Re: Perfect plan for making the Big Dance

Post by BobWilson » February 12th, 2019, 3:16 pm

Hard to beat the same team three times in a season is commonly heard but has anyone actual figures to back up this likely myth? I would bet that SJSU would lose to Nevada every time they played in a single season and no matter how many times.



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Re: Perfect plan for making the Big Dance

Post by Full » February 12th, 2019, 3:28 pm

BobWilson wrote:Hard to beat the same team three times in a season is commonly heard but has anyone actual figures to back up this likely myth? I would bet that SJSU would lose to Nevada every time they played in a single season and no matter how many times.
It’s going to be hard for any team to beat San Jose three times because they will only play the six seed three times. So teams that win have more opportunities to have a third game against an opponent. Bad teams have fewer opportunities.



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Re: Perfect plan for making the Big Dance

Post by utaggies » February 12th, 2019, 3:36 pm

Ken Pom actually did a review of the data over a 5-year period to determine the validity of the notion that it’s difficult to beat the same opponent three times in a season. His finding were as follows:

1. In the 52 games where team A led Team B 2-0 going into the 3rd game of the series and was ranked 50 places ahead of Team B, Team A went 44-8.

2. In the 17 games where Team A led Team B going into the 3rd game of the series and was ranked below Team B, Team A went 5-12.

3. In the 40 games where Team A led Team B going into the 3rd game of the series but was ranked < 50 places ahead of Team B, Team A went 34-6.

The takeaway? The notion that it is difficult to beat a team three times during the season is a myth.

Still, I like the concept of how the Aggies pave their way to an NCAA bid.



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Re: Perfect plan for making the Big Dance

Post by ShowMeAggie » February 12th, 2019, 4:36 pm

I'll be unpopular for saying this, but I think that beating a top-10 Nevada team at home in front of a raucous crowd would do more for the (long-term) health of our program than would the scenario outlined in the OP followed by a (probable) 12-seed and a (probable) first-round NCAA flame-out?

It's a gamble whether we can 1) pack the house, 2) "muster the magic" (that phrase is now trademarked), and 3) get the win on March 2. And essentially all 3 would have to happen in order for my plan to work. But I say we notch that "W" on March 2nd and let the cards fall how they may...
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Re: Perfect plan for making the Big Dance

Post by Aggie formerly in Hawaii » February 13th, 2019, 12:13 am

If we win out including a win on 3/2 we likely get in without winning the tournament in Vegas. Tough task to go 7-0 to close, but we have shown we are a good enough team to do it. Winning in Vegas is possible too. New Mexico proved the wolfpack bleed just like everybody else.



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Re: Perfect plan for making the Big Dance

Post by BobWilson » February 13th, 2019, 9:10 am

I was only using the San Jose-Nevada match up to refute the premise that " It's almost impossible to beat the same team three times in a season." I think if these teams played 100 times, Nevada would win 100 games - the total number of games making no difference in this case.



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Re: Perfect plan for making the Big Dance

Post by NVAggie » February 13th, 2019, 10:34 am

UT Arlington beat us three times in one season several years ago.



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Re: Perfect plan for making the Big Dance

Post by GameFAQSAggie » February 13th, 2019, 4:33 pm

ShowMeAggie wrote:
February 12th, 2019, 4:36 pm
I'll be unpopular for saying this, but I think that beating a top-10 Nevada team at home in front of a raucous crowd would do more for the (long-term) health of our program than would the scenario outlined in the OP followed by a (probable) 12-seed and a (probable) first-round NCAA flame-out?

It's a gamble whether we can 1) pack the house, 2) "muster the magic" (that phrase is now trademarked), and 3) get the win on March 2. And essentially all 3 would have to happen in order for my plan to work. But I say we notch that "W" on March 2nd and let the cards fall how they may...
The advantage of beating Nevada in the tourney but losing the home game is that by beating them in the tourney, we piss off someone on the bubble who has their bid taken by Nevada like the case with Maryland in 2005.



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Re: Perfect plan for making the Big Dance

Post by ChicAggie » February 14th, 2019, 12:28 pm

BobWilson wrote:
February 12th, 2019, 3:16 pm
Hard to beat the same team three times in a season is commonly heard but has anyone actual figures to back up this likely myth?
That myth has been resoundingly debunked. Indeed, if a team has already beaten you twice in a single season, you are significantly more likely to lose to that team a third time than to beat them for the first time. It's one of those silly things sports people like to say that is not only meaningless, its counterfactual. Like "giving 110%."


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Re: Perfect plan for making the Big Dance

Post by tipitup » February 14th, 2019, 12:34 pm

Hey if we hadn't have given 110% i wouldn't have beaten that team the third time we played them!!



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Re: Perfect plan for making the Big Dance

Post by USUaggienation » February 15th, 2019, 12:26 pm

It's not surprising that on face value, this theory is false. Because it skews the odds that if a team sweeps another team in the regular season, than it likely is a significantly better team (most of the time). But as mentioned earlier, no one cares if Nevada beats SJSU three times. But people likely pay more attention when a team beats another team that is perceived to be its "equal."

I have no data, but I would speculate that if a team beat a nearly equally-ranked team twice, the "reverting to the norm" theory would mean it would mean it'd be difficult to beat them three times in the same season. If they're actually evenly-matched, shouldn't the other team eventually get a win?

I guess the next two questions are A) What determines if they're "evenly-matched?" and B) Are we (Utah State) actually "evenly-matched" (or even close) with Nevada?

Regardless of everything I just wrote, the answer to the original post is ... definitely not. I want to beat Nevada at home, because that's our best (and probably only) chance for an at-large bid and I don't want to depend on winning the tournament to get in.



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