Bracketologies

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utaggies
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Bracketologies

Post by utaggies » February 22nd, 2019, 8:53 am

Bracketology

For obvious reasons I have not been a bubble-watcher for several years now. But with the season coming down to the wire and USU still in the mix for an NCAA bid, my scoreboard watching juices are again flowing. Below are five tournament prediction sites with their latest predictions (date noted) together with the latest results (if any) since the noted updated prediction.

If we lose to BSU tomorrow we will pretty much fall off the grid thereby upsetting me immensely that I went to this effort for naught.

Joe Lunardi (February 22)
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology
Last Four In:
Temple - NA
Minnesota - NA
Alabama - NA
Temple - NA
Butler - NA

First Four Out:
Clemson - NA
Utah St. - NA
Belmont - NA
Lipscomb - NA

USA Today (February 18)
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/n ... 903151002/
Last Four in:
Central Florida - lost @ Cincinnatti
North Carolina St. - beat Boston College
Georgetown - beat #17 Villanova
Seton Hall - lost to Xavier

First Four Out:
Butler - lost @ #11 Marquette
Alabama - lost @ Texas A&M
Furman - NA
Indiana - lost @ #15 Purdue

Bubble:
Nebraska - lost at Penn St.
UNC-Greensboro - beat Western Carolina
Clemson - lost to #16 Florida St.
St. Mary’s - beat Pacific
Utah St. - beat New Mexico

CBS Sports (February 18)
https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... cketology/
Last Four In:
UCF - lost to Cincinnati
Arizona St. - beat Stanford
Butler - lost @ #11 Marquette
Clemson - lost to #16 Florida St.

First Four Out:
Furman - NA
Utah St. - beat New Mexico
Nebraska - lost at Penn St.
Florida - won @ #13 LSU

Team Rankings: (February 22)
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tourn ... cketology/
At-large bid probability
Bowling Green (26%) - NA
Alabama (27%) - NA
Ohio St. (25%) - NA
South Carolina (18%) - NA
Utah St. (17%) - NA
St. Mary’s (17%) - NA

Bleacher Report (February 18)
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/282 ... ield-of-68
Last Four In:
Utah St. - beat New Mexico
Nebraska - lost at Penn St.
Florida - won at #13 LSU
Indiana - lost @ #15 Purdue

First Four Out:
Alabama - lost @ Texas A&M
Arizona St. - beat Stanford
Seton Hall - lost to Xavier
Unidentified
Last edited by utaggies on February 22nd, 2019, 11:38 am, edited 1 time in total.



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Re: Bracketologies

Post by ThunderAggie » February 22nd, 2019, 9:02 am

utaggies wrote:
February 22nd, 2019, 8:53 am
Bracketology

For obvious reasons I have not been a bubble-watcher for several years now. But with the season coming down to the wire and USU still in the mix for an NCAA bid, my scoreboard watching juices are again flowing. Below are five tournament prediction sites with their latest predictions (date noted) together with the latest results (if any) since the noted updated prediction.

If we lose to BSU tomorrow we will pretty much fall off the grid thereby upsetting me immensely that I went to this effort for naught.

Joe Lunardi (February 22)
Last Four In:
Temple - NA
Minnesota - NA
Alabama - NA
Temple - NA
Butler - NA

First Four Out:
Clemson - NA
Utah St. - NA
Belmont - NA
Lipscomb - NA

USA Today (February 18)
Last Four in:
Central Florida - lost @ Cincinnatti
North Carolina St. - beat Boston College
Georgetown - beat #17 Villanova
Seton Hall - lost to Xavier

First Four Out:
Butler - lost @ #11 Marquette
Alabama - lost @ Texas A&M
Furman - NA
Indiana - lost @ #15 Purdue

Bubbles:
Nebraska - lost at Penn St.
UNC-Greensboro - beat Western Carolina
Clemson - lost to #16 Florida St.
St. Mary’s - beat Pacific
Utah St. - beat New Mexico

CBS Sports (February 18)
Last Four In:
UCF - lost to Cincinnati
Arizona St. - beat Stanford
Butler - lost @ #11 Marquette
Clemson - lost to #16 Florida St.

First Four Out:
Furman - NA
Utah St. - beat New Mexico
Nebraska - lost at Penn St.
Florida - won @ #13 LSU

Team Rankings: (February 22)
At-large bid probability
Bowling Green (26%) - NA
Alabama (27%) - NA
Ohio St. (25%) - NA
South Carolina (18%) - NA
Utah St. (17%) - NA
St. Mary’s (17%) - NA

Bleacher Report (February 18)
Last Four In:
Utah St. - beat New Mexico
Nebraska - lost at Penn St.
Florida - won at #13 LSU
Indiana - lost @ #15 Purdue

First Four Out:
Alabama - lost @ Texas A&M
Arizona St. - beat Stanford
Seton Hall - lost to Xavier
Unidentified
Great Job, hopefully we can jump onto more "Last Four In" after beating BSU this weekend and hopefully SDSU before the Nevada game. The Nevada game is going to be crucial. Also, I found a nice article on Utah State and our tournament hopes!

https://cbbtoday.com/mens/the-table-is- ... te-aggies/



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Re: Bracketologies

Post by treesap32 » February 22nd, 2019, 9:10 am

I would love to be one of the last 4 in and get a play in game.



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Re: Bracketologies

Post by GameFAQSAggie » February 22nd, 2019, 10:43 am

I like the idea of facing and beating Alabama in the first four! It would be nice to beat them in something if we can't do it in football! Like we used to just look forward to beating Boise in basketball after being unable to do so another year, and still do to an extent, though we are now more competitive with them in football and in a position of being less and less certain of getting them in basketball. Heck, it's also funny that not long ago, most of our fan base would accept never being able to beat BYU in football and just look forward beating them in basketball, now it's the opposite with us getting the regular football wins over them but being unable to beat them in basketball which I slightly prefer, as much as I would like regular wins over them in both.



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Re: Bracketologies

Post by AGGZILLA » February 22nd, 2019, 2:25 pm

Here's one that has USU as a 9 seed vs Texas. Gonzaga would presumably be the opponent in the next round, so I would imagine this quadrant would be taking place in Salt Lake, since the committee is placing the top 16 teams close to home as they are 'protected'.

https://www.foxsports.com/college-baske ... cketeering


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Re: Bracketologies

Post by hipsterdoofus21 » February 22nd, 2019, 3:00 pm

AGGZILLA wrote:
February 22nd, 2019, 2:25 pm
Here's one that has USU as a 9 seed vs Texas. Gonzaga would presumably be the opponent in the next round, so I would imagine this quadrant would be taking place in Salt Lake, since the committee is placing the top 16 teams close to home as they are 'protected'.

https://www.foxsports.com/college-baske ... cketeering
Yikes, that's a tough bracket. I've always felt an 11 seed is more ideal than being an 8 or 9 if you're hoping to reach the Sweet 16.



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Re: Bracketologies

Post by GameFAQSAggie » February 22nd, 2019, 3:05 pm

hipsterdoofus21 wrote:
February 22nd, 2019, 3:00 pm
AGGZILLA wrote:
February 22nd, 2019, 2:25 pm
Here's one that has USU as a 9 seed vs Texas. Gonzaga would presumably be the opponent in the next round, so I would imagine this quadrant would be taking place in Salt Lake, since the committee is placing the top 16 teams close to home as they are 'protected'.

https://www.foxsports.com/college-baske ... cketeering
Yikes, that's a tough bracket. I've always felt an 11 seed is more ideal than being an 8 or 9 if you're hoping to reach the Sweet 16.
I would rather worry about getting 1 win which you are more likely to get with an 8 or 9. But that said, I don't see how we are getting anything higher than a 12 this year. I still remember in 2011 when some sites were projected us to get a 6 or 7, and others in the 8 to 10 range, only to see us get a 12.
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Re: Bracketologies

Post by MetsJetsAggies » February 22nd, 2019, 3:17 pm

treesap32 wrote:
February 22nd, 2019, 9:10 am
I would love to be one of the last 4 in and get a play in game.
Yeah honestly I'm always jealous of the teams who get to play the play in game. It feels like an actual tournament game but against an equal opponent instead of a 5-6 seed, national TV exposure, and you have the chance to get some jitters out before the next game if you win. It would suck to lose it but it would suck the same to lose the first game no matter what, play-in or not



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Re: Bracketologies

Post by GameFAQSAggie » February 22nd, 2019, 3:31 pm

MetsJetsAggies wrote:
February 22nd, 2019, 3:17 pm
treesap32 wrote:
February 22nd, 2019, 9:10 am
I would love to be one of the last 4 in and get a play in game.
Yeah honestly I'm always jealous of the teams who get to play the play in game. It feels like an actual tournament game but against an equal opponent instead of a 5-6 seed, national TV exposure, and you have the chance to get some jitters out before the next game if you win. It would suck to lose it but it would suck the same to lose the first game no matter what, play-in or not
And I would also say that I would, over the long run, remember winning the first four game followed by a loss in the round of 64 more fondly than just getting into the 64 and losing. Like it would be a good win to remember if we won the play-in in the first four in 06 or 10 which is where we would have gone if they had it, even if we still lost to Washington and Texas A&M. And agree that while losing in the first four would suck, it wouldn't have hurt much worse than the Washington and TAMU losses.



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Re: Bracketologies

Post by 918AGG » February 22nd, 2019, 4:22 pm

AGGZILLA wrote:
February 22nd, 2019, 2:25 pm
Here's one that has USU as a 9 seed vs Texas. Gonzaga would presumably be the opponent in the next round, so I would imagine this quadrant would be taking place in Salt Lake, since the committee is placing the top 16 teams close to home as they are 'protected'.

https://www.foxsports.com/college-baske ... cketeering
If USU were to play Texas in the first round of the NCAA tournament, I'd drop everything and go. My brothers are both Longhorns. We refer to this scenario as a dream/hell tournament match-up.

I forgot that this time of year is fun if your team is good. :scotsman:


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Re: Bracketologies

Post by Coloraggie » February 23rd, 2019, 9:50 am

I'd love the play-in game too because it seems in past years the winners of the 12/13 play-in games win a disproportionate amount of time in the next round. I think they have the advantage of having a game under their belt and playing in the arena that their region is in. In my brackets I always pick a winner of the play-in to advance to the second or third round of the tournament.



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Re: Bracketologies

Post by ProvoAggie » February 23rd, 2019, 10:10 am

Coloraggie wrote:
February 23rd, 2019, 9:50 am
I think they have the advantage of having a game under their belt and playing in the arena that their region is in. In my brackets I always pick a winner of the play-in to advance to the second or third round of the tournament.
The play-in games are all in Dayton. They aren't in the arena that they play the next round in.



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Re: Bracketologies

Post by AGGZILLA » February 23rd, 2019, 10:52 am

hipsterdoofus21 wrote:
February 22nd, 2019, 3:00 pm
AGGZILLA wrote:
February 22nd, 2019, 2:25 pm
Here's one that has USU as a 9 seed vs Texas. Gonzaga would presumably be the opponent in the next round, so I would imagine this quadrant would be taking place in Salt Lake, since the committee is placing the top 16 teams close to home as they are 'protected'.

https://www.foxsports.com/college-baske ... cketeering
Yikes, that's a tough bracket. I've always felt an 11 seed is more ideal than being an 8 or 9 if you're hoping to reach the Sweet 16.
I would agree with that, but in this scenario I’d gladly take playing a tougher opponent in the ‘Zags in the third round over lower seeding placement if it meant we could play in Salt Lake.


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Re: Bracketologies

Post by GameFAQSAggie » February 23rd, 2019, 11:23 am

AGGZILLA wrote:
February 23rd, 2019, 10:52 am
hipsterdoofus21 wrote:
February 22nd, 2019, 3:00 pm
AGGZILLA wrote:
February 22nd, 2019, 2:25 pm
Here's one that has USU as a 9 seed vs Texas. Gonzaga would presumably be the opponent in the next round, so I would imagine this quadrant would be taking place in Salt Lake, since the committee is placing the top 16 teams close to home as they are 'protected'.

https://www.foxsports.com/college-baske ... cketeering
Yikes, that's a tough bracket. I've always felt an 11 seed is more ideal than being an 8 or 9 if you're hoping to reach the Sweet 16.
I would agree with that, but in this scenario I’d gladly take playing a tougher opponent in the ‘Zags in the third round over lower seeding placement if it meant we could play in Salt Lake.
Part of me thinks that after not playing well after always getting lucky with the close sites, maybe it would be better for the team to be "forced" to play back east and relax playing loose. Part of the problem may have been the pressure to win to take advantage of the close sites like Boise, Spokane and Tucson, whereas there was little to no pressure to win in Oklahoma City or North Carolina. While a site back east may be harder for ACTUAL Aggie fans to make it to, we are going to be able to get some people behind us cause of wanting an upset or them being a fan of our opponent's rival. Like in Oklahoma City, while it was easy for actual Kansas fans to make it, we also had the Oklahoma and Oklahoma State fans who hate Kansas and wanted them to lose behind us.

Secondly, this year, I don't think it's a matter of would you rather have an 8/9 in Salt Lake or 11 back east, but if you would rather have an 12 in Salt Lake or 11 back east.



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Re: Bracketologies

Post by scotlandog » February 23rd, 2019, 6:18 pm

treesap32 wrote:I would love to be one of the last 4 in and get a play in game.
Jerry Palms latest bracket has us in a play-in game versus Furman(who lost today) as a 12 seed to play Iowa St., a possible rematch with with UC Irvine as a 13 seed, then a possible matchup with Gonzaga or Washington. Interesting bracket. I think we match up well against all those teams.


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Re: Bracketologies

Post by usufan1 » February 23rd, 2019, 7:16 pm

"If" the Aggies got to a play-in game and won, would it be our first NCAA tourney win since 2001? Or would a play-in not count?

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Re: Bracketologies

Post by Aggie84025 » February 23rd, 2019, 7:20 pm

Play in games for sure count. They are part of the tournament.



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Re: Bracketologies

Post by hipsterdoofus21 » February 23rd, 2019, 9:14 pm

I’ve never counted play-in games because they aren’t a part of the bracket challenges.



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Re: Bracketologies

Post by Usu0505 » February 23rd, 2019, 9:28 pm

The thing I hate about counting play in games is counting the 16 seed play in games. How many times have we lost playing a 5 seed and they get to count beating another 16 seed. It does count in their teams tourney statistics though.


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Re: Bracketologies

Post by ususports » February 23rd, 2019, 9:37 pm

hipsterdoofus21 wrote:
February 23rd, 2019, 9:14 pm
I’ve never counted play-in games because they aren’t a part of the bracket challenges.
I think if we get a play-in game, the outcome that would cause the least amount of confusion would be to lose. That way, we don't have to try to figure out if the game counts as a win or not, and everyone goes home a winner.



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Bracketologies

Post by Usu0505 » February 23rd, 2019, 9:38 pm

ususports wrote:
hipsterdoofus21 wrote:
February 23rd, 2019, 9:14 pm
I’ve never counted play-in games because they aren’t a part of the bracket challenges.
I think if we get a play-in game, the outcome that would cause the least amount of confusion would be to lose. That way, we don't have to try to figure out if the game counts as a win or not, and everyone goes home a winner.
Except the loser lol


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Re: Bracketologies

Post by ususports » February 23rd, 2019, 10:48 pm

Usu0505 wrote:
February 23rd, 2019, 9:38 pm
ususports wrote:
hipsterdoofus21 wrote:
February 23rd, 2019, 9:14 pm
I’ve never counted play-in games because they aren’t a part of the bracket challenges.
I think if we get a play-in game, the outcome that would cause the least amount of confusion would be to lose. That way, we don't have to try to figure out if the game counts as a win or not, and everyone goes home a winner.
Except the loser lol
That is the beauty of the play-in game. Since 90% of the population has the opinion that the game doesn't count, it is just like the loss never happened.



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Re: Bracketologies

Post by Bank Shot » February 24th, 2019, 6:35 pm

Couple of bubble teams lost this weekend. Seton Hall lost to St Johns which may or may not be crucial since St Johns is just off the bubble, but Minnesota lost to Rutgers which might be a dagger.



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Re: Bracketologies

Post by treesap32 » February 24th, 2019, 8:39 pm

The team and the conference still get NCAA "Credits" for the game, so it's a excellent opportunity money-wise. You can get 2 "credits" by beating a team of your caliber in the first round and then playing in the round of 64. Even if you lose in the round of 64.



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Re: Bracketologies

Post by buckfever » February 24th, 2019, 9:06 pm

Most sites today list usu. as a play in team
Great that we won yesterday



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Re: Bracketologies

Post by utaggies » February 25th, 2019, 6:50 am

Here is an update of 5 projected brackets. The date of the projection is identified. The results of games played that occured after the date of the projection are also shown. USU is edging its way into the tourney.

A win over Nevada would be a capstone to the season, but wins over SDS and CSU are crucial. Losses in either of those games and it’s “Hello NIT!”

Joe Lunardi (February 22)
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology
Last Four In:
Temple - beat Tulsa
Minnesota - lost @ Rutgers
Alabama - beat Vanderbilt
Butler - NA

First Four Out:
Clemson - beat Boston College
Utah St. - beat BSU
Belmont - beat SIU Edward
Lipscomb - NA

USA Today (February 25)
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/n ... 977328002/
Last Four in:
Central Florida - NA
Seton Hall - NA
Minnesota - NA
Alabama - NA

First Four Out:
Butler - NA
Georgetown - NA
Clemson - NA
Utah St. - NA

Bubbles:
Furman - NA
UNC-Greensboro - NA
St. Mary’s - NA

CBS Sports (February 25)
https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... cketology/
Last Four In:
Seton Hall - NA
UCF - NA
Alabama - NA
Utah St. - NA

First Four Out:
Furman - NA
Butler - NA
Clemson - NA
Georgetown - NA

Team Rankings: (February 25)
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tourn ... days-ago=0
At-large bid probability (10th seeds and lower)
10 Temple (84%) - NA
11 Mississippi (71%) - NA
13 NC Greensboro (64%) - NA
11 Florida (61%) - NA
10 Texas (58%) - NA
10 Oklahoma (42%) - NA
10 TCU (39%) - NA
12 New Mexico St. (35%) - N/A
11 Davidson (34%) - NA
12 Alabama (34%) - NA
11 Toledo (28%) - NA
— San Francisco (27%) - NA
12 Utah St. (26%) - NA
— St. Mary’s (24%) - NA
— Seton Hall (23%) - NA
— Memphis (23%) - NA
12 Yale (21%) - NA
13 Belmont (20%) - NA
— Ohio St. (20%) - NA
13 Old Dominion (13%) - NA

Bleacher Report (February 18)
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/282 ... -68#slide0
Last Four In:
Utah St. - beat New Mexico, beat BSU
Nebraska - lost at Purdue
Florida - won at #13 LSU, beat Missouri
Indiana - lost to #15 Purdue, lost @ #21 Iowa

First Four Out:
Alabama - lost @ Texas A&M, beat Vanderbilt
Arizona St. - beat Stanford, beat California
Seton Hall - lost to Xavier, lost @ St. John’s
Unidentified



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Re: Bracketologies

Post by FormerlyVegasAggie71 » February 25th, 2019, 10:38 am

Here is what ESPN says about us in latest bubble watch - we are still in "work left to do" category:

"Utah State might have seen its at-large life flash before its eyes, but Sam Merrill hit five 3s and scored 32 points as the Aggies won 78-71 in overtime at Boise State. A loss there would have gone in the books as a Quad 3 defeat -- not fatal in and of itself, perhaps, but far from ideal at the end of February for a team trying to play its way into the bracket. Craig Smith's men now have a home game against San Diego State before they welcome Nevada to Logan for a potentially profile-transforming evening of basketball. Despite a Quad 1 win on a neutral floor against Saint Mary's already in the books, USU is commonly being labeled as "first four out" material in mock brackets. (Updated: Feb. 23)"



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Re: Bracketologies

Post by Aggiesbleedblue » February 25th, 2019, 10:40 pm

In Joe Lunardi's latest update, he has us as the last team in playing Seton Hall in the first four, with the winner facing Iowa State.



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Re: Bracketologies

Post by hipsterdoofus21 » February 25th, 2019, 10:44 pm

Aggiesbleedblue wrote:
February 25th, 2019, 10:40 pm
In Joe Lunardi's latest update, he has us as the last team in playing Seton Hall in the first four, with the winner facing Iowa State.
I would be ecstatic to be in the dance, but not a fan of that bracket. Surprised to see Arizona State as an 11 seed.



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