Net Rankings update

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Net Rankings update

Post by SLB » February 24th, 2019, 11:28 am

We are #36 in NET rankings.
We are basically in every updated bracket projection.

Something that has caught my eye.
St. Mary's is #38 in the NET, and St. Mary's have a decent shot at the NCAA tournament.
Remember, we destroyed St. Mary's in the beginning of the season.



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Re: Net Rankings update

Post by Aggiesbleedblue » February 24th, 2019, 11:58 am

With 2 more wins this week we will likely move into the top 30.



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Re: Net Rankings update

Post by UStateTim » February 24th, 2019, 11:58 am

I don't think a 10 loss St. Mary's team has a shot at all, but that's just me. We have to win out in the regular season and make it to the tournament final for me to be comfortable at all.



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Re: Net Rankings update

Post by ineptimusprime » February 24th, 2019, 12:16 pm

UStateTim wrote:
February 24th, 2019, 11:58 am
I don't think a 10 loss St. Mary's team has a shot at all, but that's just me. We have to win out in the regular season and make it to the tournament final for me to be comfortable at all.
Yep. And even then, I'll STILL be sweating on selection sunday worrying about some middling P5 school stealing a bid from us. We'd be what, 27-7?

Boy, it would have been nice to have avoided a second half collapse against Houston. That would have been a more marquee win than the one we could get against Nevada on Saturday.



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Re: Net Rankings update

Post by Roy McAvoy » February 24th, 2019, 12:29 pm

I still maintain that we have to win out to get an at large bid. If we do, I think we are 100% in.

If we don’t win out, I think we’re definitely out. If we beat Nevada but lose another game, I think there’s a tiny chance we get in but are still likely out.



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Re: Net Rankings update

Post by usufan1 » February 24th, 2019, 12:31 pm

Let's just win the conference championship!

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Re: Net Rankings update

Post by utaggies » February 24th, 2019, 2:02 pm

Roy McAvoy wrote:
February 24th, 2019, 12:29 pm
I still maintain that we have to win out to get an at large bid. If we do, I think we are 100% in.

If we don’t win out, I think we’re definitely out. If we beat Nevada but lose another game, I think there’s a tiny chance we get in but are still likely out.
TeamRankings has taken some of the guess work from us. Here is their probabilities for an NCAA invite based on our number of wins to finish the season:
22 wins - 0% (this contemplates us going 0-3 the rest of the way and losing our tourney game)
23 wins - 0.4%
24 wins - 4.9% (this contemplates us going 2-1 to finish the season and then losing our tourney game)
25 wins - 18.5%
26 wins - 49.3%
27 wins - 88.8%
28 wins - 100% (this contemplates us going 3-0 to finish the season and then winning the conference tourney

It would be good to beat Nevada but it is critical that we beat SDS and especially CSU. Then we can talk about the criticality of winning two games in the conference tourney.



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Re: Net Rankings update

Post by MrBiggle » February 24th, 2019, 3:22 pm

I like our chances if we win 4 more games. Anything less than that and hopefully we get an NIT invite.


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Re: Net Rankings update

Post by AGGZILLA » February 24th, 2019, 4:15 pm

Speaking of the NET rankings, someone needs to explain to me how Wofford is getting so much love right now. A lot of bracket projections have them on the 7-8 line, but who have they beaten outside of teams from their own conference that happen to also have inflated NET rankings? They have nothing, and yet a lot of brackets have them comfortably in.

I like where we’re at. I noticed that our OOC SOS is 21!! That right there about floored me, and I think it’ll come into our favor more than other teams that didn’t try to play anyone outside of their conference slate. I’m starting to come around to think that a loss to Nevada on Saturday might not actually be the end of our tourney hopes. First things first, a win over SDSU on Tuesday is important, otherwise a loss there will make it absolutely critical to beat Nevada.


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Re: Net Rankings update

Post by Roy McAvoy » February 24th, 2019, 6:49 pm

AGGZILLA wrote:
February 24th, 2019, 4:15 pm
Speaking of the NET rankings, someone needs to explain to me how Wofford is getting so much love right now. A lot of bracket projections have them on the 7-8 line, but who have they beaten outside of teams from their own conference that happen to also have inflated NET rankings? They have nothing, and yet a lot of brackets have them comfortably in.

I like where we’re at. I noticed that our OOC SOS is 21!! That right there about floored me, and I think it’ll come into our favor more than other teams that didn’t try to play anyone outside of their conference slate. I’m starting to come around to think that a loss to Nevada on Saturday might not actually be the end of our tourney hopes. First things first, a win over SDSU on Tuesday is important, otherwise a loss there will make it absolutely critical to beat Nevada.
Wofford is getting so much love for a variety of reasons. They are 24-4 overall and 16-0 in conference. They have a 20 point against a that is 9-5 in the vaunted SEC. Their conference, is actually rated one spot above the MWC in Ken pom's rankings.

Their conference is being brought up a lot by the fact that Furman had an awesome pre-conference performance, including a win over Villanova. Furman did the opposite of what everyone in the MWC does. They balled out in pre-conference play and and then haven't played as well in conference. Wofford also played the 7th toughest non-conference strength of schedule in the nation.

And where are you seeing our OOC SOS is 21? I've never seen that.



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Re: Net Rankings update

Post by AGGZILLA » February 24th, 2019, 8:47 pm

Roy McAvoy wrote:
February 24th, 2019, 6:49 pm
Wofford is getting so much love for a variety of reasons. They are 24-4 overall and 16-0 in conference. They have a 20 point against a that is 9-5 in the vaunted SEC. Their conference, is actually rated one spot above the MWC in Ken pom's rankings.

Their conference is being brought up a lot by the fact that Furman had an awesome pre-conference performance, including a win over Villanova. Furman did the opposite of what everyone in the MWC does. They balled out in pre-conference play and and then haven't played as well in conference. Wofford also played the 7th toughest non-conference strength of schedule in the nation.

And where are you seeing our OOC SOS is 21? I've never seen that.
No doubt the Southern conference is having their best season in years, and Wofford is the beneficiary of it with wins over conference opponents that have good NET rankings. As good as the Southern conference has been, you put it yourself, Roy, they are only one spot ahead of the MW. That 20-pt win was over a South Carolina squad that, right after losing to Wofford, lost to the worst Wyoming team in recent memory by double digits. South Carolina is currently ranked 80 in the NET and that is Wofford’s marquee OOC win? Also, Wofford’s OOC SOS is currently 91, which isn’t bad, but it’s not 7th. USU’s is currently 27th, not 21st. I’m getting these numbers from Warren Nolan.

I’m not arguing that USU should be ahead of Wofford in these bracket projections, but how in the world are they comfortably in the field? They should be down where the Ags are on the 11-12 bubble fringe line.


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Re: Net Rankings update

Post by hipsterdoofus21 » February 24th, 2019, 8:54 pm

Don’t they play back east? That’s why.
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Re: Net Rankings update

Post by Roy McAvoy » February 25th, 2019, 7:55 am

AGGZILLA wrote:
February 24th, 2019, 8:47 pm
Roy McAvoy wrote:
February 24th, 2019, 6:49 pm
Wofford is getting so much love for a variety of reasons. They are 24-4 overall and 16-0 in conference. They have a 20 point against a that is 9-5 in the vaunted SEC. Their conference, is actually rated one spot above the MWC in Ken pom's rankings.

Their conference is being brought up a lot by the fact that Furman had an awesome pre-conference performance, including a win over Villanova. Furman did the opposite of what everyone in the MWC does. They balled out in pre-conference play and and then haven't played as well in conference. Wofford also played the 7th toughest non-conference strength of schedule in the nation.

And where are you seeing our OOC SOS is 21? I've never seen that.
No doubt the Southern conference is having their best season in years, and Wofford is the beneficiary of it with wins over conference opponents that have good NET rankings. As good as the Southern conference has been, you put it yourself, Roy, they are only one spot ahead of the MW. That 20-pt win was over a South Carolina squad that, right after losing to Wofford, lost to the worst Wyoming team in recent memory by double digits. South Carolina is currently ranked 80 in the NET and that is Wofford’s marquee OOC win? Also, Wofford’s OOC SOS is currently 91, which isn’t bad, but it’s not 7th. USU’s is currently 27th, not 21st. I’m getting these numbers from Warren Nolan.

I’m not arguing that USU should be ahead of Wofford in these bracket projections, but how in the world are they comfortably in the field? They should be down where the Ags are on the 11-12 bubble fringe line.
So you're referring to an RPI out of conference strength of schedule? RPI has serious flaws. Sure, so does any stat system. But over the years Ken pomeroy's system has proved to be the most robust and in-depth system of how teams truly rank. The numbers just seem to check out year after year.

His site shows Wofford having the 7th toughest OOC SOS and US having the 120th NC SOS. His system also shows US as the #41 team in the nation and Wofford as the #26.

If we were 16-0 in the MWC right now (slightly less tough than the Southern this year) with a 24-4 record and our worst loss being againt he #38 in the nation we'd all surely be clamoring that we're at least a 7 or 8 seed at this point.

Source: www.Kenpom.com



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Re: Net Rankings update

Post by AGGZILLA » February 25th, 2019, 10:49 am

Roy McAvoy wrote:
February 24th, 2019, 6:49 pm
So you're referring to an RPI out of conference strength of schedule? RPI has serious flaws. Sure, so does any stat system. But over the years Ken pomeroy's system has proved to be the most robust and in-depth system of how teams truly rank. The numbers just seem to check out year after year.

His site shows Wofford having the 7th toughest OOC SOS and US having the 120th NC SOS. His system also shows US as the #41 team in the nation and Wofford as the #26.

If we were 16-0 in the MWC right now (slightly less tough than the Southern this year) with a 24-4 record and our worst loss being againt he #38 in the nation we'd all surely be clamoring that we're at least a 7 or 8 seed at this point.

Source: www.Kenpom.com
Actually no, I’m not referring to the RPI, at all. I’m referring to the NET ranking sheets on the Warren Nolan website, unlike the Pomeroy ratings which are NOT the NET rankings that the committee utilizes. I realize that kenpom is a go-to in terms of the metrics and number-crunching that he uses on his site, but it is not the NET.

Whether we’d be clamoring for a 7-8 seed if we were in Wofford’s shoes isn’t the point. The point is that it’s the committee’s job to pick the best at-large teams for the tourney and not the most deserving and then seed them, accordingly. I don’t care if they go undefeated in the Southern conference, which is a great story, but the big dance shouldn’t be one large participation trophy. Perhaps it’s simply that they are benefitting from an abnormally weaker pool of teams than most other years. Here’s hoping that also comes to favor USU and we not only make the tourney, but get in comfortably rather than by the skin of our teeth.


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Re: Net Rankings update

Post by sammyhagar » February 25th, 2019, 11:24 am

MrBiggle wrote:
February 24th, 2019, 3:22 pm
I like our chances if we win 4 more games. Anything less than that and hopefully we get an NIT invite.
hopefully? are you serious....
you think the NIT leaves out a 25 win team?



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Re: Net Rankings update

Post by JSHarvey » February 25th, 2019, 12:08 pm

Here is a very sobering (bad) take on USU. https://talismanred.com/ratings/hoops/divisioni.shtml according to it we are tied for 95th place out of 353 D1 teams (with Illinois and Rutgers). This is a purely iterative mathematical ranking system (the Wilson system) and uses all games played in the country with no weighting other than a dynamic team rating. I would say any rating system that ranks USU high enough to be seriously considered as an at large bid is generous. I'm of course ecstatic that we are getting attention and I hope we get in, but I wouldn't be all that surprised if we don't (assuming we don't win the conference championship).

Also I'm not sure why the other rating systems NET, etc. would have such different results. NET has USU at 37, Kem Pomroy has USU at 42, the College Basketball Ranking Composite has USU at 44, Massey has USU at 44, Sagarin has USU at 52, and the Super List has USU at 54. Given the number of auto bids those numbers aren't all that promising


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Re: Net Rankings update

Post by ChicAggie » February 25th, 2019, 1:33 pm

Hats off to Roy McAvoy and 'Zilla for an interesting debate. Well-reasoned, supported by facts, and without name-calling. Truly enjoyable. :golfclap:


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Re: Net Rankings update

Post by TheAKAggie » February 25th, 2019, 2:56 pm

At the luncheon today coach brought up complaints? questions? about scheduling. He mentioned most of the teams are near the top of their league that we played out of conference. Some hero looked up our out of conference strength of schedule and it's at 50. Wichita State is at 49. The lowest team we played is 302 (I'm guessing Mississippi Valley State, which has got to drag us down.


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Re: Net Rankings update

Post by Bank Shot » March 3rd, 2019, 7:37 am

Up to #30. UCF win kept us out of 20's.



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Re: Net Rankings update

Post by QuackAttackAggie » March 3rd, 2019, 7:41 am

TheAKAggie wrote:At the luncheon today coach brought up complaints? questions? about scheduling. He mentioned most of the teams are near the top of their league that we played out of conference. Some hero looked up our out of conference strength of schedule and it's at 50. Wichita State is at 49. The lowest team we played is 302 (I'm guessing Mississippi Valley State, which has got to drag us down.

The out of conference SOS is 21. Our overall is now 97

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Re: Net Rankings update

Post by dogie » March 3rd, 2019, 11:19 am

Bank Shot wrote:
March 3rd, 2019, 7:37 am
Up to #30. UCF win kept us out of 20's.
They finally moved ahead of the best the PAC-12 has to offer, Washington, which is at 32.

Another point of interest is that USU is 2-2 in quadrant 1 games and Nevada is 1-1. Neither team will have another one unless they play each other in the MWC tournament

But, get this. Nevada was 0-0 in quadrant 1 games until last night. Now that USU has moved into the top 30, Nevada’s home win over USU is now quadrant 1. The victory over USU is their best of the year and last night’s game at USU was by far Nevada’s toughest of the season, based on the new NET criteria.

Also, USU is BYU’s and Fresno State’s best victory for the season. Someone with more time to check might see if it’s also true for Arizona State. It could be. Houston and SDSU have had better wins.
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Re: Net Rankings update

Post by JFWAggie » March 3rd, 2019, 11:21 am

Didn’t asu beat Kansas?



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Re: Net Rankings update

Post by SLB » March 3rd, 2019, 11:34 am

Nevada fans may not realized this.
Win or lose, Nevada gets a quad 1 win.
Aggies are now in the top 30 after beating Nevada.
Quad 1 win includes beating a team at home that is in the top 30 in the NET rankings.



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Re: Net Rankings update

Post by usu99 » March 3rd, 2019, 1:30 pm

We will drop out of top 30 after CSU is my guess to 31


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Re: Net Rankings update

Post by TheAKAggie » March 3rd, 2019, 3:55 pm

QuackAttackAggie wrote:
TheAKAggie wrote:At the luncheon today coach brought up complaints? questions? about scheduling. He mentioned most of the teams are near the top of their league that we played out of conference. Some hero looked up our out of conference strength of schedule and it's at 50. Wichita State is at 49. The lowest team we played is 302 (I'm guessing Mississippi Valley State, which has got to drag us down.

The out of conference SOS is 21. Our overall is now 97

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/ ... Utah-State


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Must be competing sos metrics, i just pulled up the first one on google. Is this the official one that NET uses?


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Re: Net Rankings update

Post by SLB » March 3rd, 2019, 4:01 pm

usu99 wrote:
March 3rd, 2019, 1:30 pm
We will drop out of top 30 after CSU is my guess to 31
I disagree with that.
Too many teams around us in the NET are losing.



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Re: Net Rankings update

Post by SLB » March 3rd, 2019, 4:06 pm

UCI and BYU might be Q1 games by the end of season.
UCI is now 82.
BYU is now 77.



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