St Mary’s

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St Mary’s

Post by scotlandog » November 25th, 2019, 12:07 am

Going to be a huge game for us. Hopefully Queta is back. After the LSU victory, capturing this one could set us up very well for March. St Mary’s has improved since last year as have we. It’s at their home. They won’t go down without a fight.

I know there was some discussion about them having an advantage going into this game bc we were going to be traveling back from Jamaica and they had a whole week to prepare for us. Turns out they have a game on Wednesday unlike we thought, Sonora I believe-Div II. Maybe that breaks up their focus or maybe it’s a tune up to keep them fresh. Depends on how you want to view that.

Anyways, St Mary’s is led by Ford who we shutdown pretty well last year. He’s scoring 20/gym right now and playing well.

He’s followed by Fitts who is a versatile forward, think Alphonso, that will cause all sorts of problems from inside and outside to rebounding.

They have a strong supporting cast of players who show up as needed with the right matchups, primarily Kuhse and Krebbs. These 2 each have 20points games this season.They can get hot. They are very similar to us but we are deeper on the bench than they are as their scoring comes almost entirely from their starting 5, similar to LSU.

We will not have the tallest person in this game with Kuba at 7’2”. They boast a 7’3” player in Aaron Menzies. Don’t expect to see him on the floor though as he plays almost no time. They do have a 6’10” player though that is an effective post player in Matthias Tass who is averaging 7pts and 5rebs/game. With that said, Malik Fitts is the leading rebounder at 6/game and as a team they average 32 rebounds to our 44rebs/game. Hopefully we still carry the rebounding edge in this game.

They generally play a slower game than we do this year as our average possessions are much higher. Lower possessions with a higher shooting percentage at home for them will be very difficult to beat. Especially if we start off slow again, we may not have enough opportunities or time to claw back into the game like we did against LSU. We need to play our game and take their best hits without falling behind. If we can get a lead, take their crowd out of the game, and get some fouls on their starters, we should be able to pull away in the end. If we sped up the game and force them to go deeper into their bench, that will also give us an advantage.

Should be a very enjoyable game to watch against 2 of the premier mid-majors this year. I can’t wait!




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Re: St Mary’s

Post by MetsJetsAggies » November 25th, 2019, 1:08 am

I like how we match up against them, even without Queta. As long as Sam is healthy I think we leave Moraga with a W



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Re: St Mary’s

Post by rAggie » November 25th, 2019, 9:44 am

I’d be absolutely shocked to see Queta play his first game on the road.

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Re: St Mary’s

Post by Mr. Sneelock » November 25th, 2019, 9:50 am

We need to have a good first 8-10 min. We have had a couple of games in a row now where we started very slowly. We can't afford to get in a hole in a true road game against a very good team.


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Re: St Mary’s

Post by scotlandog » November 25th, 2019, 12:09 pm

MetsJetsAggies wrote:I like how we match up against them, even without Queta. As long as Sam is healthy I think we leave Moraga with a W
I’d feel much better about how we match up with them if Queta was playing. I think last year they were a little shocked by us as there wasn’t a lot of film yet on Queta and our team. This year they will be prepared but I don’t think they really have an answer for Queta. Kuba isn’t the threat Queta is though he is improving and will cause them problems but Queta really rips the scales in our favor against St Mary’s. Kuba will still do good but the pressure will be more on Merrill, Bean, and Anderson, especially if they go small ball. We’ve seen opponents put their smaller forwards in to neutralize our height in the post because they don’t have to worry about it on the other end.


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Re: St Mary’s

Post by ThunderAggie » November 25th, 2019, 12:12 pm

scotlandog wrote:
November 25th, 2019, 12:09 pm
MetsJetsAggies wrote:I like how we match up against them, even without Queta. As long as Sam is healthy I think we leave Moraga with a W
I’d feel much better about how we match up with them if Queta was playing. I think last year they were a little shocked by us as there wasn’t a lot of film yet on Queta and our team. This year they will be prepared but I don’t think they really have an answer for Queta. Kuba isn’t the threat Queta is though he is improving and will cause them problems but Queta really rips the scales in our favor against St Mary’s. Kuba will still do good but the pressure will be more on Merrill, Bean, and Anderson, especially if they go small ball. We’ve seen opponents put their smaller forwards in to neutralize our height in the post because they don’t have to worry about it on the other end.


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Yes! Queta ate them up last year. It was really the first game I remember Queta dominating. It was this game when I knew we had a special player on our hands and we were going to win some big games.



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Re: St Mary’s

Post by AggieFBObsession » November 25th, 2019, 1:29 pm

Nobody has an answer for Queta except Wiseman at Memphis. That's why we need Queta for a game like this.

Queta's only nemesis is himself.



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Re: St Mary’s

Post by Blitz79 » November 25th, 2019, 5:29 pm

Those are some big words. Specially since we haven't seen him play and he is coming back from a knee injury.

Floridas Blackshear is pretty good, they will have a chance to battle it out.
Duke's V. Carey.
Gonzaga has a bunch of bigs.
Kansas' UDOKA AZUBUIKE is a big boy.
Stewart at Washington is really good too.

Just keeping it real.



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Re: St Mary’s

Post by Turtle » November 25th, 2019, 7:04 pm

AggieFBObsession wrote:
November 25th, 2019, 1:29 pm
Queta's only nemesis is himself.
Don't you mean Queta's only Neemiasis is himself?

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Re: St Mary’s

Post by frankiesaysrelax » November 25th, 2019, 8:43 pm

Blitz79 wrote:
November 25th, 2019, 5:29 pm
Those are some big words. Specially since we haven't seen him play and he is coming back from a knee injury.

Floridas Blackshear is pretty good, they will have a chance to battle it out.
Duke's V. Carey.
Gonzaga has a bunch of bigs.
Kansas' UDOKA AZUBUIKE is a big boy.
Stewart at Washington is really good too.

Just keeping it real.
Virginia has a couple of athletic big men. One more athletic than the other but their center moves well for his size.



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Re: St Mary’s

Post by utaggies » November 25th, 2019, 9:19 pm

The St. Marys board says that Sam is hobbling. I hadn’t seen that before. What’s the scoop?



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Re: St Mary’s

Post by Blitz79 » November 25th, 2019, 9:33 pm

He turned his ankle playing defense against North Texas. Went to the locker room for a while. He came back and played but did not look good. Could barely put weight on it. I would be surprise if he plays on Friday. But it's Sam, he will want to play.



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Re: St Mary’s

Post by Usu0505 » November 26th, 2019, 6:52 am

utaggies wrote:The St. Marys board says that Sam is hobbling. I hadn’t seen that before. What’s the scoop?
They can hope. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit to not only see him play but to see him drop 30 on them.


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Re: St Mary’s

Post by flying_scotsman2.0 » November 26th, 2019, 7:35 am

The game is at 9:30. Sam might fall asleep on the bench.



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Re: St Mary’s

Post by Aggie-Man » November 26th, 2019, 9:45 am

I might fall asleep in my recliner. :)



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Re: St Mary’s

Post by SLB » November 26th, 2019, 5:43 pm

Rebounding is not a strength of St. Mary’s.



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Re: St Mary’s

Post by aggies22 » November 26th, 2019, 7:10 pm

SLB wrote:
November 26th, 2019, 5:43 pm
Rebounding is not a strength of St. Mary’s.
Then I expect 10 and 15 out of Bean.



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Re: St Mary’s

Post by QuackAttackAggie » November 26th, 2019, 7:21 pm

SLB wrote:
November 26th, 2019, 5:43 pm
Rebounding is not a strength of St. Mary’s.
We are 7th in the country in rebound margin (+12). SMC is 73rd (+6).



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Re: St Mary’s

Post by SLB » November 26th, 2019, 10:13 pm

SMC is good, but not as good as the preseason rankings would lead us to believe.



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Re: St Mary’s

Post by treesap32 » November 27th, 2019, 11:47 am

SLB wrote:
November 26th, 2019, 10:13 pm
SMC is good, but not as good as the preseason rankings would lead us to believe.
The same could probably be said of us.

Should be a good game.



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Re: St Mary’s

Post by Roy McAvoy » November 27th, 2019, 11:53 am

SLB wrote:
November 26th, 2019, 10:13 pm
SMC is good, but not as good as the preseason rankings would lead us to believe.
Why the need to try to downplay our opponents? Give them the respect they deserve.

Ken Pomeroy has St. Mary's ranked #39 and us #46.
Last edited by Roy McAvoy on November 27th, 2019, 12:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: St Mary’s

Post by scotlandog » November 27th, 2019, 12:00 pm

Roy McAvoy wrote:
SLB wrote:
November 26th, 2019, 10:13 pm
SMC is good, but not as good as the preseason rankings would lead us to believe.
Why to need to try to downplay our opponents? Give them the respect they deserve.

Ken Pomeroy has St. Mary's ranked #39 and us #46.
No doubt. St Mary’s is good and will be a good win if we can pull it out. Whichever team loses will not be affected negatively. It will increase SOS for each team and will serve each team well in March.


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Re: St Mary’s

Post by brownjeans » November 27th, 2019, 3:50 pm

Roy McAvoy wrote:
November 27th, 2019, 11:53 am
SLB wrote:
November 26th, 2019, 10:13 pm
SMC is good, but not as good as the preseason rankings would lead us to believe.
Why the need to try to downplay our opponents? Give them the respect they deserve.

Ken Pomeroy has St. Mary's ranked #39 and us #46.
Massey does a composite of a ton of rankings (found here). It has St. Mary's ranked #51 and USU #22.

Of the 31 ratings systems, only 2 systems have St. Mary's rated higher than USU (Ken Pom & RealTimeRPI's Team Power Rankings).

St. Mary's is good, but we should win. Of course, that doesn't mean we will. St. Mary's is the third highest rated team on our schedule (LSU is #1, Florida #2)



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Re: St Mary’s

Post by Real Life Aggie » November 27th, 2019, 4:31 pm

brownjeans wrote:
November 27th, 2019, 3:50 pm
Roy McAvoy wrote:
November 27th, 2019, 11:53 am
SLB wrote:
November 26th, 2019, 10:13 pm
SMC is good, but not as good as the preseason rankings would lead us to believe.
Why the need to try to downplay our opponents? Give them the respect they deserve.

Ken Pomeroy has St. Mary's ranked #39 and us #46.
Massey does a composite of a ton of rankings (found here). It has St. Mary's ranked #51 and USU #22.

Of the 31 ratings systems, only 2 systems have St. Mary's rated higher than USU (Ken Pom & RealTimeRPI's Team Power Rankings).

St. Mary's is good, but we should win. Of course, that doesn't mean we will. St. Mary's is the third highest rated team on our schedule (LSU is #1, Florida #2)
What a year! When was the last time we had a slough of opponents that were in/flirting with the top 25?



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Re: St Mary’s

Post by WAAggie » November 27th, 2019, 6:12 pm

Better for us as a tier 1 roadie win vs st Mary Getting a tier 1 at home, right?


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Re: St Mary’s

Post by thrashsoundly » November 27th, 2019, 10:18 pm

St Mary's has been my 3rd favorite team for a few years now, and I've seen a couple games in Moraga, which was quite fun. Their gym is about the same size as most of the CV high schools, but they cram it full of fans, and it gets pretty loud.
Their team this year is good, but beatable. They beat Wisconsin and Fresno on a neutral floor, but also lost to Winthrop at home.
Although they play a little slower than the Aggies, it'll look an awful lot like our team playing in front of a mirror. Similar athleticism and size. Plenty of drives to the basket, lots of 3pt attempts and put back layups.
If we were healthy, I'd say Aggies should definitely win, but it'll be a tough game. Road W at St Mary's should look great come March.



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Re: St Mary’s

Post by utaggies » November 27th, 2019, 10:23 pm

brownjeans wrote:
November 27th, 2019, 3:50 pm
Roy McAvoy wrote:
November 27th, 2019, 11:53 am
SLB wrote:
November 26th, 2019, 10:13 pm
SMC is good, but not as good as the preseason rankings would lead us to believe.
Why the need to try to downplay our opponents? Give them the respect they deserve.

Ken Pomeroy has St. Mary's ranked #39 and us #46.
Massey does a composite of a ton of rankings (found here). It has St. Mary's ranked #51 and USU #22.

Of the 31 ratings systems, only 2 systems have St. Mary's rated higher than USU (Ken Pom & RealTimeRPI's Team Power Rankings).

St. Mary's is good, but we should win. Of course, that doesn't mean we will. St. Mary's is the third highest rated team on our schedule (LSU is #1, Florida #2)
No Queta. A hobbled Merrill. And a hospitalized Kuba. That’s not a recipe for unbridled optimism.



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Re: St Mary’s

Post by brownjeans » November 27th, 2019, 10:35 pm

utaggies wrote:
November 27th, 2019, 10:23 pm
No Queta. A hobbled Merrill. And a hospitalized Kuba. That’s not a recipe for unbridled optimism.
I did say, "it doesn't mean we will." Doesn't that count as a bridle?



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Re: St Mary’s

Post by Aggie84025 » November 28th, 2019, 7:05 am

Just going to have to ride the bean, Anderson and Brito show tomorrow night. Porter came in and played almost the rest of the game until he fouled out I imagine he should be good to go. I obviously don't know the extent of Merrill's injury but Merrill is a competitor like none other, I have a hard time believing he will sit out this game. We have got to shoot the ball better from 3 if we want to win this game.

On a side note did the team fly out yesterday or are they flying out sometime today?



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Re: St Mary’s

Post by scotlandog » November 28th, 2019, 9:49 pm

https://statsalt.com/games/ncaab/11-29- ... tion-8372/

Here is an article I found over on the St Mary’s board. It has a definite St. Mary’s lean to it including incorrect stats for us.
Part of the discussion is who we have player versus St Mary’s and they give the edge to St Mary’s which is fine. The thing is, I don’t think St Mary’s really has played anyone real tough either.

St Mary’s:
Wisconsin 4-3 recently lost to New Mexico
Winthrop 4-3 beat St Mary’s, not much else
Long Beach St. 3-4 best win-a weak providence team
Cal Poly 1-6
Fresno 2-3 beat Winthrop, Lost to St Mary’s
Lehigh 3-4
Sonoma St. (Lower Division)

USU:
Montana St. beat a good 5-2 UNC Greensboro who played Kansas close
Weber 1-5
Denver 2-4
NCA&T 2-5
UTSA 1-5
LSU 4-2 only losses to ranked teams
North Texas 2-5 record of losses 39-2

Not a lot of great teams there for either team but LSU is the best team by far for either team. Also, Montana St and North Texas are probably as good if not better than any team St Mary’s has played and we found a way to win. Whereas St Mary’s lost at home to Winthrop.

Now I’m not comparing this to say we will win but rather to contend with the argument in the statsalt game review on why they are better than us. We will not be surprised by The level of play of St Mary’s after LSU. We know they are a good team and they might win, especially with our injuries, but we are not going to be unprepared.

Also, they say our average opponents points per game is 67pts/gm but it’s really 57. I think our defense has been a strength of ours and has been able to shut opponents down at critical times. We have our weaknesses, especially against shorter speedier guards, but it’s not a huge deficit.

Thoughts?


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Re: St Mary’s

Post by AGGZILLA » November 29th, 2019, 8:22 am

This is a revenge game for them, as they’ll obviously use last year’s beat down as motivation. A team sans Queta and Merrill (or even with a hobbled Merrill) probably won’t win, but I just hope that our boys compete and make it close, like a loss in the single digits.


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Re: St Mary’s

Post by SLB » November 29th, 2019, 11:04 am

scotlandog wrote:
November 28th, 2019, 9:49 pm
https://statsalt.com/games/ncaab/11-29- ... tion-8372/

Here is an article I found over on the St Mary’s board. It has a definite St. Mary’s lean to it including incorrect stats for us.
Part of the discussion is who we have player versus St Mary’s and they give the edge to St Mary’s which is fine. The thing is, I don’t think St Mary’s really has played anyone real tough either.

St Mary’s:
Wisconsin 4-3 recently lost to New Mexico
Winthrop 4-3 beat St Mary’s, not much else
Long Beach St. 3-4 best win-a weak providence team
Cal Poly 1-6
Fresno 2-3 beat Winthrop, Lost to St Mary’s
Lehigh 3-4
Sonoma St. (Lower Division)

USU:
Montana St. beat a good 5-2 UNC Greensboro who played Kansas close
Weber 1-5
Denver 2-4
NCA&T 2-5
UTSA 1-5
LSU 4-2 only losses to ranked teams
North Texas 2-5 record of losses 39-2

Not a lot of great teams there for either team but LSU is the best team by far for either team. Also, Montana St and North Texas are probably as good if not better than any team St Mary’s has played and we found a way to win. Whereas St Mary’s lost at home to Winthrop.

Now I’m not comparing this to say we will win but rather to contend with the argument in the statsalt game review on why they are better than us. We will not be surprised by The level of play of St Mary’s after LSU. We know they are a good team and they might win, especially with our injuries, but we are not going to be unprepared.

Also, they say our average opponents points per game is 67pts/gm but it’s really 57. I think our defense has been a strength of ours and has been able to shut opponents down at critical times. We have our weaknesses, especially against shorter speedier guards, but it’s not a huge deficit.

Thoughts?


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I notice the same thing. The St. Mary's hype is a little too much. BYU is a tougher team than St. Mary's especially with BYU's PF returning before we play BYU. San Diego State is really good and might be in the top 25 before we play them.



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Re: St Mary’s

Post by SLB » November 29th, 2019, 11:19 am

This is a must win game. St. Mary's might drop in the rankings quickly after November.



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Re: St Mary’s

Post by Aggie in Boise » November 29th, 2019, 11:29 am

SLB wrote:
November 29th, 2019, 11:04 am
scotlandog wrote:
November 28th, 2019, 9:49 pm
https://statsalt.com/games/ncaab/11-29- ... tion-8372/

Here is an article I found over on the St Mary’s board. It has a definite St. Mary’s lean to it including incorrect stats for us.
Part of the discussion is who we have player versus St Mary’s and they give the edge to St Mary’s which is fine. The thing is, I don’t think St Mary’s really has played anyone real tough either.

St Mary’s:
Wisconsin 4-3 recently lost to New Mexico
Winthrop 4-3 beat St Mary’s, not much else
Long Beach St. 3-4 best win-a weak providence team
Cal Poly 1-6
Fresno 2-3 beat Winthrop, Lost to St Mary’s
Lehigh 3-4
Sonoma St. (Lower Division)

USU:
Montana St. beat a good 5-2 UNC Greensboro who played Kansas close
Weber 1-5
Denver 2-4
NCA&T 2-5
UTSA 1-5
LSU 4-2 only losses to ranked teams
North Texas 2-5 record of losses 39-2

Not a lot of great teams there for either team but LSU is the best team by far for either team. Also, Montana St and North Texas are probably as good if not better than any team St Mary’s has played and we found a way to win. Whereas St Mary’s lost at home to Winthrop.

Now I’m not comparing this to say we will win but rather to contend with the argument in the statsalt game review on why they are better than us. We will not be surprised by The level of play of St Mary’s after LSU. We know they are a good team and they might win, especially with our injuries, but we are not going to be unprepared.

Also, they say our average opponents points per game is 67pts/gm but it’s really 57. I think our defense has been a strength of ours and has been able to shut opponents down at critical times. We have our weaknesses, especially against shorter speedier guards, but it’s not a huge deficit.

Thoughts?


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I notice the same thing. The St. Mary's hype is a little too much. BYU is a tougher team than St. Mary's especially with BYU's PF returning before we play BYU. San Diego State is really good and might be in the top 25 before we play them.
If SDSU beats Iowa tonight, they will be ranked next week.



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Re: St Mary’s

Post by FeartheFro » November 29th, 2019, 11:33 am

SLB wrote:This is a must win game. St. Mary's might drop in the rankings quickly after November.
Give me a break!! Must win game, 8th game of the season, non conference game, potentially missing our two best players.


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