Projected NCAA Tourney Team Loss Comparison

lcrasmus · Post by **lcrasmus** » February 24th, 2020, 10:32 pm

Assembled a spreadsheet today. Going to try to keep up on it as time moves forward in the next few weeks, but it'll be sporadic.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... p=sharing

This is every team on www.bracketmatrix.com up through 9 seeds, and everyone below us through the first 4 out.

A few things of note.

Every team on that list except Richmond and Arkansas (both in the First 4 Out) is underdog in AT LEAST one regular season game. None of those teams are favored to win their conference championships. So if the numbers play out, all 15 of those teams will have ~2 more losses apiece by the end of the year.

Every team INCLUDING Richmond and Arkansas has AT LEAST 1 game in which they have a 60% or less chance of winning. All teams IN FRONT of us in the standings, except Rhode Island and St. Mary's (1) and Wichita State (2) have 3 games or more with a 60% or less chance of winning. None of the teams in front of us are favored to win their conference tournament, meaning all 8 are likely to have at least 2 more losses to finish out the season.

USU only plays two more regular season games, and are heavily favored in one, and favored in the other. Sticking with the odds here, even with an early exit in the conference tournament, we've got a good chance at keeping pace with the teams on this list, simply due to the number of losses they're going to be experiencing in the next two weeks.

Obviously, the more teams in front of us lose, the higher we climb on this chart. And MANY teams on that list look to have at least 2 likely losses before Selection Sunday, many with more. We could climb a great deal by the end of this process.

ineptimusprime · Post by **ineptimusprime** » February 24th, 2020, 10:41 pm

We’re in a weird spot.

I still think we could play our way as high as a 7 seed if we were to win out and beat SDSU in the tourney final.

On the other hand, if we were to lose the next three, we might not even make the NIT.

If we can get to 25 wins, I like our chances. I have a hard time seeing a 25-8 team with wins over two P5 NCAA tourney teams getting snubbed.

utaggies · Post by **utaggies** » February 24th, 2020, 10:43 pm

The problem is that in the power conferences losing a game may actually improve a team’s NET and resume. What you say is certainly the case in the non-Power Conferences, but it’s not those teams we are generally competing with for an at-large bid, as the Bracket Matrix bears out.

Real Life Aggie · Post by **Real Life Aggie** » February 24th, 2020, 11:19 pm

utaggies wrote: ↑
February 24th, 2020, 10:43 pm
The problem is that in the power conferences losing a game may actually improve a team’s NET and resume. What you say is certainly the case in the non-Power Conferences, but it’s not those teams we are generally competing with for an at-large bid, as the Bracket Matrix bears out.

A 1pt loss as an underdog to a better team would certainly improve their standing.

lcrasmus · Post by **lcrasmus** » February 24th, 2020, 11:38 pm

utaggies wrote: ↑
February 24th, 2020, 10:43 pm
The problem is that in the power conferences losing a game may actually improve a team’s NET and resume. What you say is certainly the case in the non-Power Conferences, but it’s not those teams we are generally competing with for an at-large bid, as the Bracket Matrix bears out.

Teams will not lose games and move up in seeding for the tournament. They may hold ground. But they won't advance. This is primarily because of how much data is already in the system. All teams on that list are rated 60 or above in the NET currently. While not incredibly likely, the odds of team 60 beating team 1 (in the most extreme example) are still not so bad that team 60 would see the loss as a huge outlier in ranking that would pull them up further. Team 160, maybe . But when UNLV (120) beat SDSU (1) SDSU lost 4 spots in the NET, and UNLV gained 8. So even if UNLV lost and still climbed 2 spots, they beat someone 120 positions higher than them. That's impossible for team 60 to do, and even more impossible for team 40 or 30 to do. There's just not the room mathematically for that to make sense.

There's too much data in the system for wins to do much major shifting up for any teams at the top of the standings, let alone a loss being of benefit. I would ask you to provide a single case where a top 60 team has ever gained ground with a loss, especially at this point in the season? If you can?

Roy McAvoy · Post by **Roy McAvoy** » February 25th, 2020, 6:45 am

lcrasmus wrote: ↑
February 24th, 2020, 10:32 pm
Assembled a spreadsheet today. Going to try to keep up on it as time moves forward in the next few weeks, but it'll be sporadic.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... p=sharing

This is every team on www.bracketmatrix.com up through 9 seeds, and everyone below us through the first 4 out.

A few things of note.

Every team on that list except Richmond and Arkansas (both in the First 4 Out) is underdog in AT LEAST one regular season game. None of those teams are favored to win their conference championships. So if the numbers play out, all 15 of those teams will have ~2 more losses apiece by the end of the year.

Every team INCLUDING Richmond and Arkansas has AT LEAST 1 game in which they have a 60% or less chance of winning. All teams IN FRONT of us in the standings, except Rhode Island and St. Mary's (1) and Wichita State (2) have 3 games or more with a 60% or less chance of winning. None of the teams in front of us are favored to win their conference tournament, meaning all 8 are likely to have at least 2 more losses to finish out the season.

USU only plays two more regular season games, and are heavily favored in one, and favored in the other. Sticking with the odds here, even with an early exit in the conference tournament, we've got a good chance at keeping pace with the teams on this list, simply due to the number of losses they're going to be experiencing in the next two weeks.

Obviously, the more teams in front of us lose, the higher we climb on this chart. And MANY teams on that list look to have at least 2 likely losses before Selection Sunday, many with more. We could climb a great deal by the end of this process.

This is awesome! Nice job!

One team on there, Florida, I would actually love to see win all their games because so much of USU's resume rests on Florida & LSU.

A few other particuarly impactful games I see for USU are:
Cincinnati @ South Florida (USF winning this game would be huge for USU)
Arkansas vs. LSU (Go LSU)
Indiana vs. Wisconsin (Indiana losing helps and we need Wisconsin to keep looking good because New Mexico's win over them is really holding up New Mexico's Net ranking right now)
Indiana vs. Minnesota (Trust me on this one, we need Minnesota to win some games and close the season strong)

Aggie84025 · Post by **Aggie84025** » February 25th, 2020, 11:40 am

Roy McAvoy wrote: ↑
February 25th, 2020, 6:45 am

lcrasmus wrote: ↑
February 24th, 2020, 10:32 pm
Assembled a spreadsheet today. Going to try to keep up on it as time moves forward in the next few weeks, but it'll be sporadic.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... p=sharing

This is every team on www.bracketmatrix.com up through 9 seeds, and everyone below us through the first 4 out.

A few things of note.

Every team on that list except Richmond and Arkansas (both in the First 4 Out) is underdog in AT LEAST one regular season game. None of those teams are favored to win their conference championships. So if the numbers play out, all 15 of those teams will have ~2 more losses apiece by the end of the year.

Every team INCLUDING Richmond and Arkansas has AT LEAST 1 game in which they have a 60% or less chance of winning. All teams IN FRONT of us in the standings, except Rhode Island and St. Mary's (1) and Wichita State (2) have 3 games or more with a 60% or less chance of winning. None of the teams in front of us are favored to win their conference tournament, meaning all 8 are likely to have at least 2 more losses to finish out the season.

USU only plays two more regular season games, and are heavily favored in one, and favored in the other. Sticking with the odds here, even with an early exit in the conference tournament, we've got a good chance at keeping pace with the teams on this list, simply due to the number of losses they're going to be experiencing in the next two weeks.

Obviously, the more teams in front of us lose, the higher we climb on this chart. And MANY teams on that list look to have at least 2 likely losses before Selection Sunday, many with more. We could climb a great deal by the end of this process.
This is awesome! Nice job!

One team on there, Florida, I would actually love to see win all their games because so much of USU's resume rests on Florida & LSU.

A few other particuarly impactful games I see for USU are:
Cincinnati @ South Florida (USF winning this game would be huge for USU)
Arkansas vs. LSU (Go LSU)
Indiana vs. Wisconsin (Indiana losing helps and we need Wisconsin to keep looking good because New Mexico's win over them is really holding up New Mexico's Net ranking right now)
Indiana vs. Minnesota (Trust me on this one, we need Minnesota to win some games and close the season strong)

In regards to wanting Minnesota to finish strong is this due to the fact if they don't Pitino will probably be gone? I would imagine coach Smith would be high on their list to replace him.

Bank Shot · Post by **Bank Shot** » February 25th, 2020, 11:57 am

Nice work Icrasmuc and other posters. Irrelevant, but good ole No Carolina A&T (remember them?) is now 14-14 and would presently have the auto-bid from the MEAC. I guess when we met them we played the worst, but the best of the worst.

ShowMeAggie · Post by **ShowMeAggie** » February 25th, 2020, 12:24 pm

This is great work! Awesome to see all this in one place. Thanks for putting together.
One minor suggestion: include the record and NET ranking for the teams being considered themselves, and not just for the opponents of those teams? But this is great even the way it is and I'll definitely be referring back to this over the next few days as I get more and more nervous about our chances at the dance(...s?

). Thanks again Icrasmus...

scotlandog · Post by **scotlandog** » February 25th, 2020, 12:29 pm

lcrasmus wrote:
utaggies wrote: ↑
February 24th, 2020, 10:43 pm
The problem is that in the power conferences losing a game may actually improve a team’s NET and resume. What you say is certainly the case in the non-Power Conferences, but it’s not those teams we are generally competing with for an at-large bid, as the Bracket Matrix bears out.
Teams will not lose games and move up in seeding for the tournament. They may hold ground. But they won't advance. This is primarily because of how much data is already in the system. All teams on that list are rated 60 or above in the NET currently. While not incredibly likely, the odds of team 60 beating team 1 (in the most extreme example) are still not so bad that team 60 would see the loss as a huge outlier in ranking that would pull them up further. Team 160, maybe . But when UNLV (120) beat SDSU (1) SDSU lost 4 spots in the NET, and UNLV gained 8. So even if UNLV lost and still climbed 2 spots, they beat someone 120 positions higher than them. That's impossible for team 60 to do, and even more impossible for team 40 or 30 to do. There's just not the room mathematically for that to make sense.

There's too much data in the system for wins to do much major shifting up for any teams at the top of the standings, let alone a loss being of benefit. I would ask you to provide a single case where a top 60 team has ever gained ground with a loss, especially at this point in the season? If you can?

This overall data concept is the same reason that if they win the games they are supposed to win and lose the games they are supposed to lose then things won’t change much from where it’s at right now.

We need teams around us to lose games that they are supposed to win and not win games they are supposed to lose. So, teams around us that have the most games that they are supposed to win are the ones that can drop the most.

The teams with games against top competition that they are supposed to lose are the ones that worry me because they may get lucky and win one of those and that will help move them up. Like you said though, the teams in consideration are teams that are already high in the NET rankings and thus the effect of the win for them will be less.

We know the selection committee though, and leaving out a P5 team with goods wins will be hard for them to do, no matter what the NET says. So, I’m rooting for those teams to lose and teams that have the most games they should win, to lose.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

lcrasmus · Post by **lcrasmus** » February 25th, 2020, 1:32 pm

ShowMeAggie wrote:This is great work! Awesome to see all this in one place. Thanks for putting together.
One minor suggestion: include the record and NET ranking for the teams being considered themselves, and not just for the opponents of those teams? But this is great even the way it is and I'll definitely be referring back to this over the next few days as I get more and more nervous about our chances at the dance(...s? ). Thanks again Icrasmus...

On it! Thanks for the suggestion.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Mr. Sneelock · Post by **Mr. Sneelock** » February 25th, 2020, 3:48 pm

We're in pretty good shape. We need to win the last 2 regular season games and at least one in the tourney. If we do that, I think we're in

frankiesaysrelax · Post by **frankiesaysrelax** » February 25th, 2020, 4:24 pm

Mr. Sneelock wrote: ↑
February 25th, 2020, 3:48 pm
We're in pretty good shape. We need to win the last 2 regular season games and at least one in the tourney. If we do that, I think we're in

What if UNLV wins the tourney? I doubt we are getting three from MWC in this year.

lcrasmus · Post by **lcrasmus** » February 25th, 2020, 4:31 pm

frankiesaysrelax wrote: ↑
February 25th, 2020, 4:24 pm

Mr. Sneelock wrote: ↑
February 25th, 2020, 3:48 pm
We're in pretty good shape. We need to win the last 2 regular season games and at least one in the tourney. If we do that, I think we're in
What if UNLV wins the tourney? I doubt we are getting three from MWC in this year.

If we were to lose to UNLV in the championship game, the numbers still look very favorable for us to make it, at least IMO. That's 4 more wins on our resume and then a loss to a top 100 team at that point (as they currently would have to beat SDSU to get to us) and just about every other team around us will also be losing one more.

frankiesaysrelax · Post by **frankiesaysrelax** » February 25th, 2020, 4:33 pm

lcrasmus wrote: ↑
February 25th, 2020, 4:31 pm

frankiesaysrelax wrote: ↑
February 25th, 2020, 4:24 pm

Mr. Sneelock wrote: ↑
February 25th, 2020, 3:48 pm
We're in pretty good shape. We need to win the last 2 regular season games and at least one in the tourney. If we do that, I think we're in
What if UNLV wins the tourney? I doubt we are getting three from MWC in this year.
If we were to lose to UNLV in the championship game, the numbers still look very favorable for us to make it, at least IMO. That's 4 more wins on our resume and then a loss to a top 100 team at that point (as they currently would have to beat SDSU to get to us) and just about every other team around us will also be losing one more.

The scenario stated was just win one game in the tourney which I took as that is the only one we won.

Post by **Aglicious** » February 25th, 2020, 4:38 pm

Awesome job!

my OCD makes me want to correct the misspelling in the title so badly....

lcrasmus · Post by **lcrasmus** » February 25th, 2020, 4:57 pm

frankiesaysrelax wrote: ↑
February 25th, 2020, 4:33 pm

lcrasmus wrote: ↑
February 25th, 2020, 4:31 pm

frankiesaysrelax wrote: ↑
February 25th, 2020, 4:24 pm

Mr. Sneelock wrote: ↑
February 25th, 2020, 3:48 pm
We're in pretty good shape. We need to win the last 2 regular season games and at least one in the tourney. If we do that, I think we're in
What if UNLV wins the tourney? I doubt we are getting three from MWC in this year.
If we were to lose to UNLV in the championship game, the numbers still look very favorable for us to make it, at least IMO. That's 4 more wins on our resume and then a loss to a top 100 team at that point (as they currently would have to beat SDSU to get to us) and just about every other team around us will also be losing one more.
The scenario stated was just win one game in the tourney which I took as that is the only one we won.

Ah. My misunderstanding.

In that case, you'd watch them be the on seeded somewhere around NMSU, though that number would likely rise a bit with another SDSU win. They'd be seeded around NMSU and North Texas. That would put them at a 13 or 14 seed.

We, however, would benefit in degrees from that, and as long as we lose a semi-final or later matchup, the math still lies in our favor to be included. 3 from the MWC is a definite possibility if that holds out. Remember, we're going to have a loss at some point no matter what, unless we win the championship. That's included in all these predictions. So what happens on the other side of the bracket is immaterial to our success there. We just need that loss to occur in the semi or finals of the conference tourney to lock things up.

Mr. Sneelock · Post by **Mr. Sneelock** » February 25th, 2020, 7:57 pm

frankiesaysrelax wrote: ↑
February 25th, 2020, 4:24 pm

Mr. Sneelock wrote: ↑
February 25th, 2020, 3:48 pm
We're in pretty good shape. We need to win the last 2 regular season games and at least one in the tourney. If we do that, I think we're in
What if UNLV wins the tourney? I doubt we are getting three from MWC in this year.

That is the one scenario where it might get dicey. I think we are in better shape than a lot of us believe.

lcrasmus · Post by **lcrasmus** » February 28th, 2020, 2:24 pm

Updated today. Lots of games tomorrow and Sunday that can be very helpful to us.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Upcoming Events

Event Results