USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

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USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by AKAggie03 » February 26th, 2020, 6:56 am



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Re: USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by hipsterdoofus21 » February 26th, 2020, 7:08 am

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Re: USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by ineptimusprime » February 26th, 2020, 7:16 am

Two more wins, and we are “in.” Four more wins and we are a 7 seed, IMO (so long as it’s SDSU in the final).



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Re: USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by Roy McAvoy » February 26th, 2020, 7:36 am

I’d like to point out that NC state and Clemson, ranked 33 and 35 in the net ranking last year respectively, and didn’t get in to the tournament.

I still think we need to make it to the mwc championship game.
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Re: USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by MrBiggle » February 26th, 2020, 7:41 am

Roy McAvoy wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 7:36 am
I’d like to point out that NC state and Clemson, ranked 33 and 35 in the net ranking last year respectively, and didn’t get in to the tournament.

I still think we need to make it to the mwc championship game.
Ding ding ding.

Even with that it could go either way. Just gotta win win win.


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Re: USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by Sl7vk » February 26th, 2020, 8:00 am

The way we are peaking and SDSU is cratering right now, I feel like we might be the favorites to win the tourny anyways.
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Re: USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by SweepDance » February 26th, 2020, 8:07 am

We moved up three spots over idle teams because we beat lowly SJSU? I know I've said it before, but I'm still not buying the NET's supposed cap on margin of victory at 10.

Take, for example, when St. Mary's beat Arizona State by 40. They moved up from #64 to #36. I know it was only 12 games into the season but there's no way they shoot up that far if they beat them by only 10.

What this tells me is that if you show no mercy and blow teams out by as much as possible and you'll get rewarded.
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Re: USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by utaggies » February 26th, 2020, 8:30 am

Sl7vk wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 8:00 am
The way we are peaking and SDSU is cratering right now, I feel like we might be the favorites to win the tourny anyways.
TeamRankings disagrees, giving us a 28% chance. SDS has a 49% chance.
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Re: USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by MarioWest » February 26th, 2020, 8:37 am

SweepDance wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 8:07 am
We moved up three spots over idle teams because we beat lowly SJSU? I know I've said it before, but I'm still not buying the NET's supposed cap on margin of victory at 10.

Take, for example, when St. Mary's beat Arizona State by 40. They moved up from #64 to #36. I know it was only 12 games into the season but there's no way they shoot up that far if they beat them by only 10.

What this tells me is that if you show no mercy and blow teams out by as much as possible and you'll get rewarded.
The "scoring margin" component may be capped at 10, but the "net offensive and defensive efficiency" component rewards teams for running up the score.

If you google "net ratings margin of victory," one of the first results, funnily enough, is a post from Cougarboard reading "there isn't a difference between winning by 12 and winning by 50 in NET ratings."

You see similar sentiments from fans and media pretty frequently, but it isn't true. Clarity is not the NCAA's strong suit. Buffalo's coach has admitted he encourages players to run up the margin in blowouts.
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Re: USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by NVAggie » February 26th, 2020, 8:52 am

So I guess the Utah coach was right. That sucks.



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Re: USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by FloridaAggie13 » February 26th, 2020, 8:55 am

utaggies wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 8:30 am
Sl7vk wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 8:00 am
The way we are peaking and SDSU is cratering right now, I feel like we might be the favorites to win the tourny anyways.
TeamRankings disagrees, giving us a 28% chance. SDS has a 49% chance.
Agreed. The 30+ win team will be the favorite, and should be, regardless of the recent trendline. At the end of the day SDSU still is winning their games.



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Re: USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by freakboy » February 26th, 2020, 8:57 am

SweepDance wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 8:07 am
We moved up three spots over idle teams because we beat lowly SJSU? I know I've said it before, but I'm still not buying the NET's supposed cap on margin of victory at 10.

Take, for example, when St. Mary's beat Arizona State by 40. They moved up from #64 to #36. I know it was only 12 games into the season but there's no way they shoot up that far if they beat them by only 10.

What this tells me is that if you show no mercy and blow teams out by as much as possible and you'll get rewarded.

While the margin of victory is capped at 10, efficiency margin is not, so you can still benefit from blowing out a team.

edit: I should have read all the responses before posting.
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Re: USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by Sl7vk » February 26th, 2020, 11:33 am

FloridaAggie13 wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 8:55 am
utaggies wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 8:30 am
Sl7vk wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 8:00 am
The way we are peaking and SDSU is cratering right now, I feel like we might be the favorites to win the tourny anyways.
TeamRankings disagrees, giving us a 28% chance. SDS has a 49% chance.
Agreed. The 30+ win team will be the favorite, and should be, regardless of the recent trendline. At the end of the day SDSU still is winning their games.
Sort of. They did lose.
We have a better win streak, and we look better in the eye test right now.
They don't scare me at all.



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Re: USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by brownjeans » February 26th, 2020, 11:41 am

Sl7vk wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 11:33 am
FloridaAggie13 wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 8:55 am
utaggies wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 8:30 am
Sl7vk wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 8:00 am
The way we are peaking and SDSU is cratering right now, I feel like we might be the favorites to win the tourny anyways.
TeamRankings disagrees, giving us a 28% chance. SDS has a 49% chance.
Agreed. The 30+ win team will be the favorite, and should be, regardless of the recent trendline. At the end of the day SDSU still is winning their games.
Sort of. They did lose.
We have a better win streak, and we look better in the eye test right now.
They don't scare me at all.
They play good defense and they have more players who are reliable, consistent scorers. We don't have that. We have to get an outlier game from someone to challenge them. Can that happen? Yes, but that's not something to bet on.
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Re: USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by Sl7vk » February 26th, 2020, 11:42 am

brownjeans wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 11:41 am
Sl7vk wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 11:33 am
FloridaAggie13 wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 8:55 am
utaggies wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 8:30 am
Sl7vk wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 8:00 am
The way we are peaking and SDSU is cratering right now, I feel like we might be the favorites to win the tourny anyways.
TeamRankings disagrees, giving us a 28% chance. SDS has a 49% chance.
Agreed. The 30+ win team will be the favorite, and should be, regardless of the recent trendline. At the end of the day SDSU still is winning their games.
Sort of. They did lose.
We have a better win streak, and we look better in the eye test right now.
They don't scare me at all.
They play good defense and they have more players who are reliable, consistent scorers. We don't have that. We have to get an outlier game from someone to challenge them.
I'm not sure I agree.
With a gimpy Merrill or Keita, yes you are right.
With a healthy Merrill, Keita and rampant Bean, I think we match up very well.



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Re: USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by USU78 » February 26th, 2020, 11:51 am



You keep using that word. I do not think that word means what you think it means.

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Re: USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by utaggies » February 26th, 2020, 11:52 am

Sl7vk wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 11:42 am
brownjeans wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 11:41 am
Sl7vk wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 11:33 am
FloridaAggie13 wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 8:55 am
utaggies wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 8:30 am
Sl7vk wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 8:00 am
The way we are peaking and SDSU is cratering right now, I feel like we might be the favorites to win the tourny anyways.
TeamRankings disagrees, giving us a 28% chance. SDS has a 49% chance.
Agreed. The 30+ win team will be the favorite, and should be, regardless of the recent trendline. At the end of the day SDSU still is winning their games.
Sort of. They did lose.
We have a better win streak, and we look better in the eye test right now.
They don't scare me at all.
They play good defense and they have more players who are reliable, consistent scorers. We don't have that. We have to get an outlier game from someone to challenge them.
I'm not sure I agree.
With a gimpy Merrill or Keita, yes you are right.
With a healthy Merrill, Keita and rampant Bean, I think we match up very well.
On a neutral court Sagarin says we are a 4+ underdog to SDS right now.



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Re: USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by FL350Aggie » February 26th, 2020, 1:38 pm

Roy McAvoy wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 7:36 am
I’d like to point out that NC state and Clemson, ranked 33 and 35 in the net ranking last year respectively, and didn’t get in to the tournament.

I still think we need to make it to the mwc championship game.
Yeah, that dang Air Force loss will forever haunt this team. Sorta like not using protection on prom night. If they don’t make it to the tournament, that one bad night will be the reason why.



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Re: USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by utaggies » February 26th, 2020, 3:03 pm

FL350Aggie wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 1:38 pm
Roy McAvoy wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 7:36 am
I’d like to point out that NC state and Clemson, ranked 33 and 35 in the net ranking last year respectively, and didn’t get in to the tournament.

I still think we need to make it to the mwc championship game.
Yeah, that dang Air Force loss will forever haunt this team. Sorta like not using protection on prom night. If they don’t make it to the tournament, that one bad night will be the reason why.
No, the BSU loss was worse and will be remembered much longer than the toe-stub that was the loss to the AFA. The BSU loss was an historic choke job. Even if it recedes into the memories of USU fans, BSU fans will forever remember it and share it with us

We remember the USU comeback to beat BSU in the Spectrum years ago that extended USU’s mastery over the Broncos in Logan. BSU’s win was much bigger than that one.

Either beating BSU or AFA would likely have gotten us into the NCAA w/o having to win our MWC semi-final game. But the BSU loss will be more unforgettable over time.
Last edited by utaggies on February 26th, 2020, 6:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.



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Re: USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by ProvoAggie » February 26th, 2020, 3:24 pm

utaggies wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 3:03 pm
FL350Aggie wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 1:38 pm
Roy McAvoy wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 7:36 am
I’d like to point out that NC state and Clemson, ranked 33 and 35 in the net ranking last year respectively, and didn’t get in to the tournament.

I still think we need to make it to the mwc championship game.
Yeah, that dang Air Force loss will forever haunt this team. Sorta like not using protection on prom night. If they don’t make it to the tournament, that one bad night will be the reason why.
No, the BSU loss was worse and will be remembered much longer than the toe-stub that was the loss to the AFA. The BSU loss was an historic choke job. Even if it recedes into the memories of USU fans, BSU fans will forever remember it and share it with us

We remember the USU comeback to beat BSU in the Spectrum years ago that extended USU’s mastery over the Broncos in Logan. BSU’s win was much bigger than that one.

Either beating BSU or AFA would likely have gotten us into the NCAA w/o having to win our MWC semi-final game. But the BSU loss will be more forgettable over time.
The way that we lost to Boise was more embarrassing but on paper, the Air Force loss shouldn't have happened. When the committee is looking at our team sheet they'll see Boise as an overtime road loss to a borderline Q1 team...the Air Force loss on the other hand shows that we got beat badly by a borderline Q4 team. Boise State could have been a good win that would have helped our resume but removing the bad loss would help us more.
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Re: USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by bullshot » February 26th, 2020, 4:14 pm

The loss to Boise was the BB gods equalizing the world. That win against Boise State sone years ago, we scored 10 points in the last minute to squeak out the victory. I remember jumping up and down on my couch.
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Re: USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by Zaggie07 » February 26th, 2020, 4:43 pm

We are a bit of a bubble team. Right now we are on the good side of the bubble. If we don't win the conference tournament, whether or not we get in will depend on how many bid stealers the are. Root for the favorites to win the tournaments, leaving as many true at large spots as possible.

*for those who may be unfamiliar, a bid stealer is a team that wins their conference tournament and would not have been considered otherwise, when there are also other teams in the conference that are considered locks. UNLV would be a bid stealer. Any team in the WCC but Gonzaga, St Mary's, and byu would be a bid stealer. Any team but Dayton in the A10 could be a bid stealer (maybe not RI or Richmond).

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Re: USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by Usu0505 » February 26th, 2020, 6:45 pm

bullshot wrote:The loss to Boise was the BB gods equalizing the world. That win against Boise State sone years ago, we scored 10 points in the last minute to squeak out the victory. I remember jumping up and down on my couch.
That was last year


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Re: USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by MrBiggle » February 26th, 2020, 6:50 pm

Zaggie07 wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 4:43 pm
We are a bit of a bubble team. Right now we are on the good side of the bubble. If we don't win the conference tournament, whether or not we get in will depend on how many bid stealers the are. Root for the favorites to win the tournaments, leaving as many true at large spots as possible.

*for those who may be unfamiliar, a bid stealer is a team that wins their conference tournament and would not have been considered otherwise, when there are also other teams in the conference that are considered locks. UNLV would be a bid stealer. Any team in the WCC but Gonzaga, St Mary's, and byu would be a bid stealer. Any team but Dayton in the A10 could be a bid stealer (maybe not RI or Richmond).

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You think BYU is a bid stealer? Unless we win the MWC tournament, BYU will get a higher seed then us.


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Re: USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by ProvoAggie » February 26th, 2020, 6:52 pm

MrBiggle wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 6:50 pm
Zaggie07 wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 4:43 pm
We are a bit of a bubble team. Right now we are on the good side of the bubble. If we don't win the conference tournament, whether or not we get in will depend on how many bid stealers the are. Root for the favorites to win the tournaments, leaving as many true at large spots as possible.

*for those who may be unfamiliar, a bid stealer is a team that wins their conference tournament and would not have been considered otherwise, when there are also other teams in the conference that are considered locks. UNLV would be a bid stealer. Any team in the WCC but Gonzaga, St Mary's, and byu would be a bid stealer. Any team but Dayton in the A10 could be a bid stealer (maybe not RI or Richmond).

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You think BYU is a bid stealer? Unless we win the MWC tournament, BYU will get a higher seed then us.
He said that anyone in the WCC outside of those 3 would be considered a bid stealer if they won the tournament.



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Re: USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by MrBiggle » February 26th, 2020, 7:01 pm

ProvoAggie wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 6:52 pm
MrBiggle wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 6:50 pm
Zaggie07 wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 4:43 pm
We are a bit of a bubble team. Right now we are on the good side of the bubble. If we don't win the conference tournament, whether or not we get in will depend on how many bid stealers the are. Root for the favorites to win the tournaments, leaving as many true at large spots as possible.

*for those who may be unfamiliar, a bid stealer is a team that wins their conference tournament and would not have been considered otherwise, when there are also other teams in the conference that are considered locks. UNLV would be a bid stealer. Any team in the WCC but Gonzaga, St Mary's, and byu would be a bid stealer. Any team but Dayton in the A10 could be a bid stealer (maybe not RI or Richmond).

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You think BYU is a bid stealer? Unless we win the MWC tournament, BYU will get a higher seed then us.
He said that anyone in the WCC outside of those 3 would be considered a bid stealer if they won the tournament.
:anonymous:


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Re: USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by Blitz79 » February 26th, 2020, 7:38 pm

Rutgers just lost and they are the team ahead of us. We need to finish ahead of those Big 10 teams. Hopefully we can pass Stanford in the rankings as well. And then there was Florida, LSU and St. Marys.



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Re: USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by Bank Shot » February 26th, 2020, 8:04 pm

Rutgers is one of those teams that Bracketologists seem to down play their NET. Big rap against them is that they just have one win away (Purdue). One of the Big 10 teams that their NET won't be convincing if they don't make a little tourney noise.



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Re: USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by SectionFaggie » February 26th, 2020, 8:29 pm

MarioWest wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 8:37 am
SweepDance wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 8:07 am
We moved up three spots over idle teams because we beat lowly SJSU? I know I've said it before, but I'm still not buying the NET's supposed cap on margin of victory at 10.

Take, for example, when St. Mary's beat Arizona State by 40. They moved up from #64 to #36. I know it was only 12 games into the season but there's no way they shoot up that far if they beat them by only 10.

What this tells me is that if you show no mercy and blow teams out by as much as possible and you'll get rewarded.
The "scoring margin" component may be capped at 10, but the "net offensive and defensive efficiency" component rewards teams for running up the score.

If you google "net ratings margin of victory," one of the first results, funnily enough, is a post from Cougarboard reading "there isn't a difference between winning by 12 and winning by 50 in NET ratings."

You see similar sentiments from fans and media pretty frequently, but it isn't true. Clarity is not the NCAA's strong suit. Buffalo's coach has admitted he encourages players to run up the margin in blowouts.
Thank you. I was one of these "win by 10; 11 doesn't matter" guys until tonight. Now I am back to advocating for a 1970s-1980s Nebraska football approach. Have great D and run the score up.
(of course I might still be way off. I am sure that our coaches and those at the other schools know how to manage the algorithm way better than we do)
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Re: USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by FloridaAggie13 » February 26th, 2020, 9:28 pm

Sl7vk wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 11:33 am
FloridaAggie13 wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 8:55 am
utaggies wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 8:30 am
Sl7vk wrote:
February 26th, 2020, 8:00 am
The way we are peaking and SDSU is cratering right now, I feel like we might be the favorites to win the tourny anyways.
TeamRankings disagrees, giving us a 28% chance. SDS has a 49% chance.
Agreed. The 30+ win team will be the favorite, and should be, regardless of the recent trendline. At the end of the day SDSU still is winning their games.
Sort of. They did lose.
We have a better win streak, and we look better in the eye test right now.
They don't scare me at all.
Yes, they are certainly beatable and I would love to finally face them with a fully healthy team. But to date, they've only lost once which means they've won games where they didn't play well but still found a way to scrap out a victory. At the end of the day, while we may be the team peaking at the right time, there is no way we will be the 'favorite' to win the tournament over a team with 30+ wins and a top five national ranking.



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Re: USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by utaggies » February 26th, 2020, 10:06 pm

Here are the Bracket Matrix rankings through 2/24, with the results of games played on 2/25 and 2/26. The takeaway is that we’ll likely hold our position. The only things that could potentially move the dial is Rutgers losing — but I doubt we jump them since the loss was to a good Penn St. team.

#8
LSU -lost to Florida
Texas Tech - lost @ Oklahoma
Illinois - beat Nebraska
Arizona St. - idle

#9
St. Mary’s - idle
Florida - beat LSU
Rutgers - lost to Penn. St.
Virginia - beat Virginia Tech

#10
Indiana - idle
Xavier - beat DePaul
Wichita St. - idle
Rhode Island - beat Fordham

#11
USC - idle
Oklahoma - beat Texas Tech
Utah St. - beat SJS
Cincinnati - idle
Providence - idle
North Carolina St. - lost @ North Carolina

#12
E. Tennessee St.* - beat Wofford
No. Iowa* - beat Evansville
Liberty* - idle
Yale* - idle

First Four Out:
Richmond - beat George Washington
Stanford - beat Utah
Georgetown - lost to Marquette
Purdue - idle

Next Four Out:
Arkansas - beat Tennessee
Memphis - lost @ SMU
Mississippi - lost @ Auburn
Alabama - lost @ Mississippi St.

*One-bid league champs



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Re: USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by utaggies » February 27th, 2020, 10:14 pm

Bracket Matrix
(Rankings through 2/24 and games through 2/27)

The takeaway is that our NET ranking may drop from 35 to 37 given that the two teams directly below us (Illinois and Purdue) won tonight. However, we may overtake Indiana and further solidify an 11 seed. Indiana will now be on life support.

#8
LSU -lost to Florida
Texas Tech - lost @ Oklahoma
Illinois - beat Nebraska
Arizona St. - lost to UCLA

#9
St. Mary’s - beat Santa Clara
Florida - beat LSU
Rutgers - lost to Penn. St.
Virginia - beat Virginia Tech

#10
Indiana - lost to Purdue
Xavier - beat DePaul
Wichita St. - beat Temple
Rhode Island - beat Fordham

#11
USC - beat Arizona
Oklahoma - beat Texas Tech
Utah St. - beat SJS
Cincinnati - idle
Providence - idle
North Carolina St. - lost @ North Carolina

#12
E. Tennessee St.* - beat Wofford
No. Iowa* - beat Evansville
Liberty* - beat Kennesaw St.
Yale* - beat Penn

First Four Out:
Richmond - beat George Washington
Stanford - beat Utah
Georgetown - lost to Marquette
Purdue - beat Indiana

Next Four Out:
Arkansas - beat Tennessee
Memphis - lost @ SMU
Mississippi - lost @ Auburn
Alabama - lost @ Mississippi St.

*One-bid league champs
Last edited by utaggies on February 28th, 2020, 7:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.



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Re: USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by utaggies » February 28th, 2020, 5:25 am

USU’s NET dropped to 37 today (2/28) as both Illinois and Purdue jumped us. The NM game is pivotal.



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ineptimusprime
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Re: USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by ineptimusprime » February 28th, 2020, 7:24 am

The love these .500 Big Ten teams are getting is infuriating. I’ve seen Purdue play, and we would eat their lunch even on a bad day.



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Re: USU up to 35 on Net Ratings after SJSU win

Post by Aggie19 » February 28th, 2020, 7:27 am

ineptimusprime wrote:
February 28th, 2020, 7:24 am
The love these .500 Big Ten teams are getting is infuriating. I’ve seen Purdue play, and we would eat their lunch even on a bad day.
That's probably what Big 10 schools are saying about a MW team being ranked near them. Haha! 😁

It's a little ridiculous how much love they get.


Go Aggies!

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