Dropped to 48 in the NET

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Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by treesap32 » January 22nd, 2021, 5:45 am

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Re: Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by slcagg » January 22nd, 2021, 6:28 am

treesap32 wrote:
January 22nd, 2021, 5:45 am
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Boise at 13, SDSU at 46 and csu at 58.



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Re: Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by FL350Aggie » January 22nd, 2021, 10:10 am

More concerning is how Iowa and Colorado were treated. Colorado lost to 204th ranked Washington and moves up a spot to 16th. Iowa loses to 55 ranked Indiana and drops three spots. Ags lose to 63rd ranked CSU and are punished 7 spots. I’m confused.



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Re: Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by Aggie formerly in Hawaii » January 22nd, 2021, 10:23 am

FL350Aggie wrote:
January 22nd, 2021, 10:10 am
More concerning is how Iowa and Colorado were treated. Colorado lost to 204th ranked Washington and moves up a spot to 16th. Iowa loses to 55 ranked Indiana and drops three spots. Ags lose to 63rd ranked CSU and are punished 7 spots. I’m confused.
It isn't fair, but we can make it up. Our next 6 games are against teams we should beat. Go 6-0 before our Boise matchups and we will be where we need to be.
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Re: Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by Aggie19 » January 22nd, 2021, 10:39 am

FL350Aggie wrote:
January 22nd, 2021, 10:10 am
More concerning is how Iowa and Colorado were treated. Colorado lost to 204th ranked Washington and moves up a spot to 16th. Iowa loses to 55 ranked Indiana and drops three spots. Ags lose to 63rd ranked CSU and are punished 7 spots. I’m confused.
Look at the quadrants and it's not hard to see why. Both of those teams have multiple Q1 wins. If you look at USU currently, a whole lot of Q4 and one Q1 game that we lost. It sucks, but it is what it is.


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Re: Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by Aglicious » January 22nd, 2021, 10:58 am

Aggie19 wrote:
January 22nd, 2021, 10:39 am
FL350Aggie wrote:
January 22nd, 2021, 10:10 am
More concerning is how Iowa and Colorado were treated. Colorado lost to 204th ranked Washington and moves up a spot to 16th. Iowa loses to 55 ranked Indiana and drops three spots. Ags lose to 63rd ranked CSU and are punished 7 spots. I’m confused.
Look at the quadrants and it's not hard to see why. Both of those teams have multiple Q1 wins. If you look at USU currently, a whole lot of Q4 and one Q1 game that we lost. It sucks, but it is what it is.
Also, Colorado did fall 9 spots to 17 after their loss to Washington....their move up 1 spot came on an idle day.



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Re: Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by treesap32 » January 22nd, 2021, 11:02 am

FL350Aggie wrote:
January 22nd, 2021, 10:10 am
More concerning is how Iowa and Colorado were treated. Colorado lost to 204th ranked Washington and moves up a spot to 16th. Iowa loses to 55 ranked Indiana and drops three spots. Ags lose to 63rd ranked CSU and are punished 7 spots. I’m confused.
Moving several spots, or one spot can be deceiving. Since they don't release the actual net RATING number but just the ranking among teams, you could drop 7 rankings just by moving a slight decimal in the numerical rating. We'll never know because the NCAA made the formula secretive so it could be manipulated as necessary even within a single season. That's what I really don't like about the NET.

Here's what I'm talking about as an example:

41 - Utah State NET Rating 344.49
42 - Blah Blah University Rating 344.48
43 - University of Blah Rating 344.48
44 - Rah Rah University Rating 344.47
45 - University or Rah Rah Rating 344.47
46 - Joe Shmoe Rating 344.46
47 - Jane Doe Rating 344.45

So if the Aggies go down .05 in their net RATING they could drop 6 or 7 RANKING spots.

Let's look at Iowa

1 - Baylor 405.00
2 - Iowa - 400.00
3 - Gonzaga 397.00
4 - Michigan 396.50
5 - Houston 395.00

So Iowa loses and could drop a full 5 RATING points and still only drop 3 RANKINGS in the standings.

I just made up all those rating numbers to prove my point. Unfortunately we'll never know what the exact ratings are since the NCAA won't be transparent about it. But you can't judge a jump in the rankings or drop in the rankings as equivalent across all teams. It all depends on who is around you and what the actual numerical ratings are.

All we can do is play, win and hope.
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Re: Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by freakboy » January 22nd, 2021, 12:58 pm

Sad!



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Re: Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by Mr. Sneelock » January 22nd, 2021, 1:06 pm

Gotta take advantage of opportunities. We don't yet have any Q1 wins, and lost in our only opportunity. Being in a power conference gives you a lot more of those opportunities. It is what it is.


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Re: Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by Aggiealum13 » January 22nd, 2021, 2:18 pm

Mr. Sneelock wrote:
January 22nd, 2021, 1:06 pm
Gotta take advantage of opportunities. We don't yet have any Q1 wins, and lost in our only opportunity. Being in a power conference gives you a lot more of those opportunities. It is what it is.
Boise State will be a Q1 opportunity twice. Those 2 games are going to be huge. Aggies really need to steal one of those games.



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Re: Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by scotlandog » January 22nd, 2021, 6:32 pm

Aggiealum13 wrote:
Mr. Sneelock wrote:
January 22nd, 2021, 1:06 pm
Gotta take advantage of opportunities. We don't yet have any Q1 wins, and lost in our only opportunity. Being in a power conference gives you a lot more of those opportunities. It is what it is.
Boise State will be a Q1 opportunity twice. Those 2 games are going to be huge. Aggies really need to steal one of those games.
Yeah, we really need to win one of those games and preferably both. CSU now has 2 Q1 victories and we have none. They will get better consideration come tourney time. Last nights loss could really hurt us.


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Re: Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by Aggiealum13 » January 23rd, 2021, 3:06 pm

scotlandog wrote:
January 22nd, 2021, 6:32 pm
Aggiealum13 wrote:
Mr. Sneelock wrote:
January 22nd, 2021, 1:06 pm
Gotta take advantage of opportunities. We don't yet have any Q1 wins, and lost in our only opportunity. Being in a power conference gives you a lot more of those opportunities. It is what it is.
Boise State will be a Q1 opportunity twice. Those 2 games are going to be huge. Aggies really need to steal one of those games.
Yeah, we really need to win one of those games and preferably both. CSU now has 2 Q1 victories and we have none. They will get better consideration come tourney time. Last nights loss could really hurt us.

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San Diego State might work their way back as a Q1 win for us. They're climbing the net rankings again. We should really want them to perform well from this point out. We already had our games with them for the regular season. Them doing well just makes us look good. They are currently 38 in the net rankings. They would have to be in the top 30 for our two wins against them at home to be counted as a Q1 win.



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Re: Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by scotlandog » January 23rd, 2021, 3:59 pm

Aggiealum13 wrote:
scotlandog wrote:
January 22nd, 2021, 6:32 pm
Aggiealum13 wrote:
Mr. Sneelock wrote:
January 22nd, 2021, 1:06 pm
Gotta take advantage of opportunities. We don't yet have any Q1 wins, and lost in our only opportunity. Being in a power conference gives you a lot more of those opportunities. It is what it is.
Boise State will be a Q1 opportunity twice. Those 2 games are going to be huge. Aggies really need to steal one of those games.
Yeah, we really need to win one of those games and preferably both. CSU now has 2 Q1 victories and we have none. They will get better consideration come tourney time. Last nights loss could really hurt us.

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San Diego State might work their way back as a Q1 win for us. They're climbing the net rankings again. We should really want them to perform well from this point out. We already had our games with them for the regular season. Them doing well just makes us look good. They are currently 38 in the net rankings. They would have to be in the top 30 for our two wins against them at home to be counted as a Q1 win.
That’s a good point. We could push those 2 Q2s into Q1s and that would change the outlook drastically. I think they need to win one of those Boise games at home and not drop any games to anyone else. Really with Boise being so high(I don’t quite understand why..) if SDSU, CSU and us each win a game against them, I think all 4 would average out to low 20’s to mid 30’s. Really that should have all 4 teams with good cases to make an at large bid. TBH, I think if you looked at all 4 resumes, I would give the nod to CSU right now. Boise really hasn’t done anything and right now SDSU and ourselves haven’t done anything. It’s really all about those Q1 wins and CSU right now has 2.


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Re: Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by scotlandog » January 25th, 2021, 9:03 am

SDSU now at 31, at 30 they become a Q1 win for us. That will be huge for us. We need them to keep winning, which should be easy for a while until they play Boise. If they can take one of those games, that would certainly clinch it I would think. If we could get one at Boise that would be 3 Q1s for us. We would be looking really good at that point. I could easily see 3 MWC teams in and it’s not a far stretch to see 4 this year.


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Re: Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by Roy McAvoy » January 25th, 2021, 9:10 am

Man, I don't want to get ahead of myself here, but if SDSU could solidify itself top 30 NET, I think barring some major collapse if we win one game @Boise we'd be in. 3 Q1 wins would do it for us I think.



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Re: Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by slcagg » January 25th, 2021, 9:14 am

scotlandog wrote:
January 25th, 2021, 9:03 am
SDSU now at 31, at 30 they become a Q1 win for us. That will be huge for us. We need them to keep winning, which should be easy for a while until they play Boise. If they can take one of those games, that would certainly clinch it I would think. If we could get one at Boise that would be 3 Q1s for us. We would be looking really good at that point. I could easily see 3 MWC teams in and it’s not a far stretch to see 4 this year.


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Man those road blow out wins vs Air Force really jumped up SDSU. They were mid 40s before that series.

If we could do the same vs unlv it would be a big deal.



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Re: Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by Aggiealum13 » January 25th, 2021, 9:33 am

scotlandog wrote:
January 25th, 2021, 9:03 am
SDSU now at 31, at 30 they become a Q1 win for us. That will be huge for us. We need them to keep winning, which should be easy for a while until they play Boise. If they can take one of those games, that would certainly clinch it I would think. If we could get one at Boise that would be 3 Q1s for us. We would be looking really good at that point. I could easily see 3 MWC teams in and it’s not a far stretch to see 4 this year.


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That is great news but yes, it's only good news if the Aggies keep on winning starting tonight. If we continue to do so and San Diego State does really well, then we're going to get two Q1 wins probably by the end of this week. The boys got to stay hungry and execute. Go Aggies!



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Re: Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by Yossarian » January 25th, 2021, 9:53 am

scotlandog wrote:
January 25th, 2021, 9:03 am
SDSU now at 31, at 30 they become a Q1 win for us. That will be huge for us. We need them to keep winning, which should be easy for a while until they play Boise. If they can take one of those games, that would certainly clinch it I would think. If we could get one at Boise that would be 3 Q1s for us. We would be looking really good at that point. I could easily see 3 MWC teams in and it’s not a far stretch to see 4 this year.


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If the rest of the season plays out with the top 4 teams just beating each other and the MW gets 3 teams invited and not 4, the team that gets left out is not going to be happy and will have a legitimate gripe.



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Re: Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by Aggiesbleedblue » January 25th, 2021, 10:21 am

Hot take: Boise State will be the team that finishes 4th. Other than their win at BYU they have not been overly impressive. I think they go 2-4 against us, SDSU and CSU.
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Re: Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by AgMan21 » January 25th, 2021, 10:24 am

Those Colgate Raiders are crushing it this year. Number 13 in the NET with a record of 5-1 (only against Q3 and Q4 opponents)



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Re: Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by SpectrumMagic » January 25th, 2021, 10:46 am

Aggiesbleedblue wrote:
January 25th, 2021, 10:21 am
Hot take: Boise State will be the team that finishes 4th. Other than their win at BYU they have not been overly impressive. I think they go 2-4 against us, SDSU and CSU.
I think BSU is a good team - just not as balanced. Very good O and not nearly as good of D as SDSU. Their stats show slow PPG but should trend up IF they play all the top teams and don’t have COVID issues.

My worry is that there are postponed games and they miss out on full slate of games vs us, CSU, and SDSU.



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Re: Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by Roy McAvoy » January 25th, 2021, 11:12 am

SpectrumMagic wrote:
January 25th, 2021, 10:46 am
Aggiesbleedblue wrote:
January 25th, 2021, 10:21 am
Hot take: Boise State will be the team that finishes 4th. Other than their win at BYU they have not been overly impressive. I think they go 2-4 against us, SDSU and CSU.
I think BSU is a good team - just not as balanced. Very good O and not nearly as good of D as SDSU. Their stats show slow PPG but should trend up IF they play all the top teams and don’t have COVID issues.

My worry is that there are postponed games and they miss out on full slate of games vs us, CSU, and SDSU.
Here's an interesting idea. Cancel the conference tournament & use those dates to play the missed games during the conference season. If there's a team like USU that doesn't have any missed dates, they could use that time to potentially go find a "resume builder" game out of conference.



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Re: Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by ProvoAggie » January 25th, 2021, 11:14 am

Roy McAvoy wrote:
January 25th, 2021, 11:12 am
Here's an interesting idea. Cancel the conference tournament & use those dates to play the missed games during the conference season. If there's a team like USU that doesn't have any missed dates, they could use that time to potentially go find a "resume builder" game out of conference.
It's going to be hard to find a resume builder game to play while everyone else is playing in their conference tournament.



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Re: Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by Roy McAvoy » January 25th, 2021, 11:28 am

ProvoAggie wrote:
January 25th, 2021, 11:14 am
Roy McAvoy wrote:
January 25th, 2021, 11:12 am
Here's an interesting idea. Cancel the conference tournament & use those dates to play the missed games during the conference season. If there's a team like USU that doesn't have any missed dates, they could use that time to potentially go find a "resume builder" game out of conference.
It's going to be hard to find a resume builder game to play while everyone else is playing in their conference tournament.
I think you may see other conferences change their conference tournament setup for this season as well.



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Re: Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by Aglicious » January 25th, 2021, 11:33 am

AgMan21 wrote:
January 25th, 2021, 10:24 am
Those Colgate Raiders are crushing it this year. Number 13 in the NET with a record of 5-1 (only against Q3 and Q4 opponents)
Haha....I look at that every day and it bugs the holy hell out of me. They've played exactly 3 opponents on the season. Their best win is against #89 Army West Point (who is also their only loss) The best part though? They only have 8 games left on their schedule and 6 of the 8 remaining are against the same 3 teams they have already played. LOL.

Pending no further cancellations, they will end the season having played a total of 14 games against only 4 different teams (Army West Point, Boston U., Holy Cross, & Lehigh). That is unreal. Almost as unreal as watching them climb in the NET each week they don't play. #13? :headscratch:



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Re: Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by treesap32 » January 25th, 2021, 11:47 am

Aglicious wrote:
January 25th, 2021, 11:33 am
AgMan21 wrote:
January 25th, 2021, 10:24 am
Those Colgate Raiders are crushing it this year. Number 13 in the NET with a record of 5-1 (only against Q3 and Q4 opponents)
Haha....I look at that every day and it bugs the holy hell out of me. They've played exactly 3 opponents on the season. Their best win is against #89 Army West Point (who is also their only loss) The best part though? They only have 8 games left on their schedule and 6 of the 8 remaining are against the same 3 teams they have already played. LOL.

Pending no further cancellations, they will end the season having played a total of 14 games against only 4 different teams (Army West Point, Boston U., Holy Cross, & Lehigh). That is unreal. Almost as unreal as watching them climb in the NET each week they don't play. #13? :headscratch:
To top it off, their Strength of Schedule according to KenPom is #330 in the nation. Their Offensive Efficiency is #67 and Defensive Efficiency is #172.

Overall, KenPom rates them #105 which seems more reasonable than #13.

THIS is why the NCAA needs to make the NET rating transparent. If we could see the formula we could figure out why the NET is over-valuing Colgate, and why SDSU moved up 10 spots by blowing out Air Force twice while their OOC opponents moved down in NET this week.



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Re: Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by Bank Shot » January 25th, 2021, 11:59 am

Since SDSU beat UCLA they would have probably moved up even more had not UCLA lost a last second buzzer beater on an out of bounds play to Stanford Saturday.



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Re: Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by jpswensen » January 25th, 2021, 1:18 pm

treesap32 wrote:
January 25th, 2021, 11:47 am
THIS is why the NCAA needs to make the NET rating transparent. If we could see the formula we could figure out why the NET is over-valuing Colgate, and why SDSU moved up 10 spots by blowing out Air Force twice while their OOC opponents moved down in NET this week.
You didn't hear? Conspiracy theorists the world over are postulating that Nelson ratings and internet viewership counts go into the NET calculation.


Work expands to fill the time allotted.

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Re: Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by Bank Shot » January 25th, 2021, 1:28 pm

jpswensen wrote:
January 25th, 2021, 1:18 pm
treesap32 wrote:
January 25th, 2021, 11:47 am
THIS is why the NCAA needs to make the NET rating transparent. If we could see the formula we could figure out why the NET is over-valuing Colgate, and why SDSU moved up 10 spots by blowing out Air Force twice while their OOC opponents moved down in NET this week.
You didn't hear? Conspiracy theorists the world over are postulating that Nelson ratings and internet viewership counts go into the NET calculation.
And in Colgate's case, also toothpaste popularity,
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Re: Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by Real Life Aggie » January 25th, 2021, 2:08 pm

treesap32 wrote:
January 25th, 2021, 11:47 am
Aglicious wrote:
January 25th, 2021, 11:33 am
AgMan21 wrote:
January 25th, 2021, 10:24 am
Those Colgate Raiders are crushing it this year. Number 13 in the NET with a record of 5-1 (only against Q3 and Q4 opponents)
Haha....I look at that every day and it bugs the holy hell out of me. They've played exactly 3 opponents on the season. Their best win is against #89 Army West Point (who is also their only loss) The best part though? They only have 8 games left on their schedule and 6 of the 8 remaining are against the same 3 teams they have already played. LOL.

Pending no further cancellations, they will end the season having played a total of 14 games against only 4 different teams (Army West Point, Boston U., Holy Cross, & Lehigh). That is unreal. Almost as unreal as watching them climb in the NET each week they don't play. #13? :headscratch:
To top it off, their Strength of Schedule according to KenPom is #330 in the nation. Their Offensive Efficiency is #67 and Defensive Efficiency is #172.

Overall, KenPom rates them #105 which seems more reasonable than #13.

THIS is why the NCAA needs to make the NET rating transparent. If we could see the formula we could figure out why the NET is over-valuing Colgate, and why SDSU moved up 10 spots by blowing out Air Force twice while their OOC opponents moved down in NET this week.
Then we can get into the min/maxxing and equation manipulation. Playing a not-so-great opponent? Pad your stats with extra ORs and steals, or something manipulable that carries extra weight in the equation.



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Re: Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by utaggies » January 25th, 2021, 2:26 pm

Real Life Aggie wrote:
January 25th, 2021, 2:08 pm
treesap32 wrote:
January 25th, 2021, 11:47 am
Aglicious wrote:
January 25th, 2021, 11:33 am
AgMan21 wrote:
January 25th, 2021, 10:24 am
Those Colgate Raiders are crushing it this year. Number 13 in the NET with a record of 5-1 (only against Q3 and Q4 opponents)
Haha....I look at that every day and it bugs the holy hell out of me. They've played exactly 3 opponents on the season. Their best win is against #89 Army West Point (who is also their only loss) The best part though? They only have 8 games left on their schedule and 6 of the 8 remaining are against the same 3 teams they have already played. LOL.

Pending no further cancellations, they will end the season having played a total of 14 games against only 4 different teams (Army West Point, Boston U., Holy Cross, & Lehigh). That is unreal. Almost as unreal as watching them climb in the NET each week they don't play. #13? :headscratch:
To top it off, their Strength of Schedule according to KenPom is #330 in the nation. Their Offensive Efficiency is #67 and Defensive Efficiency is #172.

Overall, KenPom rates them #105 which seems more reasonable than #13.

THIS is why the NCAA needs to make the NET rating transparent. If we could see the formula we could figure out why the NET is over-valuing Colgate, and why SDSU moved up 10 spots by blowing out Air Force twice while their OOC opponents moved down in NET this week.
Then we can get into the min/maxxing and equation manipulation. Playing a not-so-great opponent? Pad your stats with extra ORs and steals, or something manipulable that carries extra weight in the equation.
Exactly. Do you remember a fews years back when the Missouri Valley Conference games the RPI system?



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Re: Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by Cuchelain » January 25th, 2021, 3:27 pm

Actually I find it troubling the way everyone suddenly assumed that the MVC was gaming the system just because one year they had a lot of teams with good rpi's. If having a lot of teams with good rpi's is gaming the system then all of the major conferences had been doing it for years. Big East anyone? Why is it that the talking heads simply couldn't accept the fact that there were just a lot of good teams in the MVC that year?



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Re: Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by jpswensen » January 25th, 2021, 3:34 pm

Has any kept calculating RPI and determined whether NET has been a better predictor of success than RPI?


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Re: Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by treesap32 » January 25th, 2021, 6:04 pm

utaggies wrote:
January 25th, 2021, 2:26 pm
Real Life Aggie wrote:
January 25th, 2021, 2:08 pm
treesap32 wrote:
January 25th, 2021, 11:47 am
Aglicious wrote:
January 25th, 2021, 11:33 am
AgMan21 wrote:
January 25th, 2021, 10:24 am
Those Colgate Raiders are crushing it this year. Number 13 in the NET with a record of 5-1 (only against Q3 and Q4 opponents)
Haha....I look at that every day and it bugs the holy hell out of me. They've played exactly 3 opponents on the season. Their best win is against #89 Army West Point (who is also their only loss) The best part though? They only have 8 games left on their schedule and 6 of the 8 remaining are against the same 3 teams they have already played. LOL.

Pending no further cancellations, they will end the season having played a total of 14 games against only 4 different teams (Army West Point, Boston U., Holy Cross, & Lehigh). That is unreal. Almost as unreal as watching them climb in the NET each week they don't play. #13? :headscratch:
To top it off, their Strength of Schedule according to KenPom is #330 in the nation. Their Offensive Efficiency is #67 and Defensive Efficiency is #172.

Overall, KenPom rates them #105 which seems more reasonable than #13.

THIS is why the NCAA needs to make the NET rating transparent. If we could see the formula we could figure out why the NET is over-valuing Colgate, and why SDSU moved up 10 spots by blowing out Air Force twice while their OOC opponents moved down in NET this week.
Then we can get into the min/maxxing and equation manipulation. Playing a not-so-great opponent? Pad your stats with extra ORs and steals, or something manipulable that carries extra weight in the equation.
Exactly. Do you remember a fews years back when the Missouri Valley Conference games the RPI system?
I'd much rather understand how teams are rated and try to perform to that standard than have everything in a black box and see Colgate as a top 15 team with no explanation other than the fact that whoever created NET likes that brand of toothpaste.

Teams and fans deserve to know what goes into a calculation that determines the fate of their teams. It's a statistical calculation. It should be released.



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Re: Dropped to 48 in the NET

Post by Real Life Aggie » January 25th, 2021, 7:33 pm

treesap32 wrote:
January 25th, 2021, 6:04 pm
I'd much rather understand how teams are rated and try to perform to that standard than have everything in a black box and see Colgate as a top 15 team with no explanation other than the fact that whoever created NET likes that brand of toothpaste.

Teams and fans deserve to know what goes into a calculation that determines the fate of their teams. It's a statistical calculation. It should be released.
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