We now have two official Q1 wins.

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We now have two official Q1 wins.

Post by Aggiealum13 » January 28th, 2021, 6:41 am

San Diego State reached #30 in net rankings. Colorado State jumped 15 spots to #40 by beating Boise State. Only bad news is Utah State only moved up one spot to #55 after the win last night. You would think with two Q1 wins that we would at least jump four or five spots. I guess that lost with UNLV the other day was worse than I thought. I'm sure we could climb our way back. Colorado State's jump should help us with that a little bit too. I feel like we have to be in the top 40 in the net rankings for me to be comfortable getting in as an at-Large. We have some games ahead of us that should be able to get us back somewhere in the 40s in the net rankings before our clash with Boise State, but margin of error is pretty small going forward. One more bad loss and I think we would need to win the conference tournament. Which is something I think we're capable of doing because I think the conference is wide open, and if Utah State gets hot at the right time we could pull three in a row as conference tournament champions.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketbal ... t-rankings



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Re: We now have two official Q1 wins.

Post by Roy McAvoy » January 28th, 2021, 7:21 am

I've said all along I think 17-3 in conference gets us an at large bid. I still think so if SDSU can finish strong & remain as two Q1 wins, which would give us 3 Q1 wins overall.

I think there's an outside chance of an at large at 16-4 in conference as long as we have at least 1 win at Boise, but I wouldn't count on it.
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Re: We now have two official Q1 wins.

Post by Aggiealum13 » January 28th, 2021, 7:27 am

Roy McAvoy wrote:
January 28th, 2021, 7:21 am
I've said all along I think 17-3 in conference gets us an at large bid. I still think so if SDSU can finish strong & remain as two Q1 wins, which would give us 3 Q1 wins overall.

I think there's an outside chance of an at large at 16-4 in conference as long as we have at least 1 win at Boise, but I wouldn't count on it.
I think a 17-3 conference record would get us in if that third loss was to Boise State. Meaning that we would split with them. However, I guess if it's a 17-3 record with that 3rd loss being to someone else (bad loss) and sweeping Boise State then I guess I could buy the chance of getting in as an at-large still. A lot of factors would need to play out like Boise State still being really good and not falling apart. Either way Utah State needs to beat the teams they're supposed to beat.



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Re: We now have two official Q1 wins.

Post by bpd » January 28th, 2021, 8:56 am

Here is what I don't get. How is BSU so high in the NET rankings? They basically played 3 out of conference games, they beat BYU, lost to Houston, and beat Weber. That is ok, but nothing special. Kenpom has them at 65, which seems more accurate.



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Re: We now have two official Q1 wins.

Post by NVAggie » January 28th, 2021, 8:58 am

We don't know. The NET formula is secret.
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Re: We now have two official Q1 wins.

Post by ProvoAggie » January 28th, 2021, 9:27 am

BYU was a Q1 loss for us yesterday and dropped to Q2 with their loss to Pepperdine.



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Re: We now have two official Q1 wins.

Post by 2004AG » January 28th, 2021, 9:39 am

ProvoAggie wrote:BYU was a Q1 loss for us yesterday and dropped to Q2 with their loss to Pepperdine.
Screw Q1 vs Q2. Anytime byu loses it’s a good thing.


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Re: We now have two official Q1 wins.

Post by AGGIEinIOWA » January 28th, 2021, 9:42 am

2004AG wrote:
ProvoAggie wrote:BYU was a Q1 loss for us yesterday and dropped to Q2 with their loss to Pepperdine.
Screw Q1 vs Q2. Anytime byu loses it’s a good thing.


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I agree. Any day when the Aggies win and both BYU and Boise lose, has to be a good day.
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Re: We now have two official Q1 wins.

Post by Real Life Aggie » January 28th, 2021, 10:45 am

2004AG wrote:
January 28th, 2021, 9:39 am
ProvoAggie wrote:BYU was a Q1 loss for us yesterday and dropped to Q2 with their loss to Pepperdine.
Screw Q1 vs Q2. Anytime byu loses it’s a good thing.
I actually had a moment of deep introspection when I heard that news. My first thought was "Oh no, that hurts our NET ranking" and not "Go Pepperdine!"
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Re: We now have two official Q1 wins.

Post by Aggie formerly in Hawaii » January 28th, 2021, 10:56 am

Real Life Aggie wrote:
January 28th, 2021, 10:45 am
2004AG wrote:
January 28th, 2021, 9:39 am
ProvoAggie wrote:BYU was a Q1 loss for us yesterday and dropped to Q2 with their loss to Pepperdine.
Screw Q1 vs Q2. Anytime byu loses it’s a good thing.
I actually had a moment of deep introspection when I heard that news. My first thought was "Oh no, that hurts our NET ranking" and not "Go Pepperdine!"
I am glad they lost, but a part of me has hated when they have lost to these blah WCC teams over the last decade when they were able to beat us. It is frustrating to keep losing to them when they have so many losses to the Pepperdines, Pacific's and San Francisco's of the world.
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Re: We now have two official Q1 wins.

Post by Aggiesbleedblue » January 28th, 2021, 12:22 pm

I’m surprised it’s taken this long for CSU to be a serious at-large contender. They don’t have a bad loss, and have 2 really good road wins that are almost guaranteed to be Q1. I think they could also end up a Q1 win for us before it’s all said and done. We could end up with 4-5 Q1 wins as Boise will remain Top 75.



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Re: We now have two official Q1 wins.

Post by Donman » January 28th, 2021, 1:28 pm

Aggiealum13 wrote:
January 28th, 2021, 6:41 am
San Diego State reached #30 in net rankings. Colorado State jumped 15 spots to #40 by beating Boise State. Only bad news is Utah State only moved up one spot to #55 after the win last night. You would think with two Q1 wins that we would at least jump four or five spots. I guess that lost with UNLV the other day was worse than I thought. I'm sure we could climb our way back. Colorado State's jump should help us with that a little bit too. I feel like we have to be in the top 40 in the net rankings for me to be comfortable getting in as an at-Large. We have some games ahead of us that should be able to get us back somewhere in the 40s in the net rankings before our clash with Boise State, but margin of error is pretty small going forward. One more bad loss and I think we would need to win the conference tournament. Which is something I think we're capable of doing because I think the conference is wide open, and if Utah State gets hot at the right time we could pull three in a row as conference tournament champions.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketbal ... t-rankings
Wouldn't we have 3 Q1 wins (two wins over SDSU and one over CSU)?



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Re: We now have two official Q1 wins.

Post by ViAggie » January 28th, 2021, 1:42 pm

ProvoAggie wrote:
January 28th, 2021, 9:27 am
BYU was a Q1 loss for us yesterday and dropped to Q2 with their loss to Pepperdine.
LOLZ, the Cloogs got beat by "the waves?" Malibu Tech? Really? LOLZ


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Re: We now have two official Q1 wins.

Post by Aggie84025 » January 28th, 2021, 2:38 pm

Donman wrote:
January 28th, 2021, 1:28 pm
Aggiealum13 wrote:
January 28th, 2021, 6:41 am
San Diego State reached #30 in net rankings. Colorado State jumped 15 spots to #40 by beating Boise State. Only bad news is Utah State only moved up one spot to #55 after the win last night. You would think with two Q1 wins that we would at least jump four or five spots. I guess that lost with UNLV the other day was worse than I thought. I'm sure we could climb our way back. Colorado State's jump should help us with that a little bit too. I feel like we have to be in the top 40 in the net rankings for me to be comfortable getting in as an at-Large. We have some games ahead of us that should be able to get us back somewhere in the 40s in the net rankings before our clash with Boise State, but margin of error is pretty small going forward. One more bad loss and I think we would need to win the conference tournament. Which is something I think we're capable of doing because I think the conference is wide open, and if Utah State gets hot at the right time we could pull three in a row as conference tournament champions.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketbal ... t-rankings
Wouldn't we have 3 Q1 wins (two wins over SDSU and one over CSU)?
CSU needs to get to top 30 in order for it to be a quad 1 win for us.



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Re: We now have two official Q1 wins.

Post by Aggie19 » January 28th, 2021, 10:38 pm

I think we need to run the table to grab an at-large bid. If you look at the net ranking, it's not out of the realm of possibility that all of our wins outside of SDSU(x2),CSU, UNLV and the two BSU games (if that were to happen) - would be Q4 wins. I mean it would be an awesome 14-0 in quadrant 4, but pretty mediocre the rest of the way.


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Re: We now have two official Q1 wins.

Post by SwaggieAggie » January 29th, 2021, 11:10 am

UNLV was always going to be my most nervous Q3/Q4 team in the conference. The loss stung but with wins against SDSU (X2) and CSU, we really are in a fine position.. Boise is also very beatable and gives us a good chance to cash in another Q1 win.



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Re: We now have two official Q1 wins.

Post by Yossarian » January 29th, 2021, 12:00 pm

Looking at Boise's upcoming schedule - it is very possible that they will not be a Q1 team at the end of the year. I could see the Broncos losing as many as 4 more games with the schedule they have coming up.



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Re: We now have two official Q1 wins.

Post by Aggie84025 » January 29th, 2021, 12:09 pm

Yossarian wrote:
January 29th, 2021, 12:00 pm
Looking at Boise's upcoming schedule - it is very possible that they will not be a Q1 team at the end of the year. I could see the Broncos losing as many as 4 more games with the schedule they have coming up.
Since we play Boise on the road in order for it to be quad 1 victory for us they need to be in the top 75. Even if they lose a few more they will still probably be top 75.



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Re: We now have two official Q1 wins.

Post by Aggie19 » January 29th, 2021, 12:10 pm

Yossarian wrote:
January 29th, 2021, 12:00 pm
Looking at Boise's upcoming schedule - it is very possible that they will not be a Q1 team at the end of the year. I could see the Broncos losing as many as 4 more games with the schedule they have coming up.
I could see the same thing happening. With CSU shooting up the board with their remaining schedule. I guess we'll see how Boise bounces back tonight, but it's hard not to see CSU at the top when this all shakes out.


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Re: We now have two official Q1 wins.

Post by SpectrumMagic » January 29th, 2021, 7:05 pm

Aggie19 wrote:
January 29th, 2021, 12:10 pm
Yossarian wrote:
January 29th, 2021, 12:00 pm
Looking at Boise's upcoming schedule - it is very possible that they will not be a Q1 team at the end of the year. I could see the Broncos losing as many as 4 more games with the schedule they have coming up.
I could see the same thing happening. With CSU shooting up the board with their remaining schedule. I guess we'll see how Boise bounces back tonight, but it's hard not to see CSU at the top when this all shakes out.
With the games on the road they just need to remain at 75 or below to qualify as Q1. I’d say there is greater chance of that being true than falling above 75



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Re: We now have two official Q1 wins.

Post by scotlandog » January 31st, 2021, 11:47 am

South Dakota State just took a huge hit in the NET and is now a Q3 loss for us. They didn’t even lose but dropped pretty drastically. We need them to move back up to Q2 and we need UNLV to pick up some wins and move to Q2 for us. Both are pretty close to the threshold. We also need CSU and byu to move up to Q1 games for us. If those things happen and we can pull of one at Boise, we should be looking good. But we can’t drop one to Fresno or Wyoming. I would be ideal to get our NET back to low 40’s or mid 30’s.


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Re: We now have two official Q1 wins.

Post by Aggie formerly in Hawaii » January 31st, 2021, 11:51 am

Aggie19 wrote:
January 28th, 2021, 10:38 pm
I think we need to run the table to grab an at-large bid. If you look at the net ranking, it's not out of the realm of possibility that all of our wins outside of SDSU(x2),CSU, UNLV and the two BSU games (if that were to happen) - would be Q4 wins. I mean it would be an awesome 14-0 in quadrant 4, but pretty mediocre the rest of the way.
Probably true other than Boise State. We might be able to survive a loss to Boise State, but we certainly can't lose to Fresno State or Wyoming.



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Re: We now have two official Q1 wins.

Post by Aggie84025 » January 31st, 2021, 7:12 pm

In order to feel relatively safe going to into the tournament as an at large I believe the following needs to happen. Aggies finish the remaining 8 games as 7-1 with the one loss coming to BSU on the road. The aggies can ill afford to lose any games to FSU, WYO and NEV. We need SDSU and CSU to keep winning so SDSU stays as quad 1 victories and possibly CSU gets there as well. Just win aggies.

It would help if BYU can get above 30 so it becomes a quad 1 loss as well. I know it is hard to cheer for them, but them winning helps us.



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Re: We now have two official Q1 wins.

Post by hipsterdoofus21 » January 31st, 2021, 8:19 pm

March Madness is a tv show, this year more so than any other. We’ve got 2 great cast members to offer the show in Queta and Smith. They’re both media darlings and Queta is a draft prospect. The Aggies could go 6-2 or 5-3 and still get in as long as they can beat Boise once. We’re not dealing with the days of old with a curmudgeon coach and slow down style. Lots of people still remember this team from the MW championship last year.



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Re: We now have two official Q1 wins.

Post by utaggies » January 31st, 2021, 9:18 pm

UNR beating UNLV by 30 points is not going to help our resume.



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Re: We now have two official Q1 wins.

Post by Aggie formerly in Hawaii » January 31st, 2021, 9:46 pm

hipsterdoofus21 wrote:
January 31st, 2021, 8:19 pm
March Madness is a tv show, this year more so than any other. We’ve got 2 great cast members to offer the show in Queta and Smith. They’re both media darlings and Queta is a draft prospect. The Aggies could go 6-2 or 5-3 and still get in as long as they can beat Boise once. We’re not dealing with the days of old with a curmudgeon coach and slow down style. Lots of people still remember this team from the MW championship last year.
I don't know. Women loved Stew.
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Re: We now have two official Q1 wins.

Post by Aglicious » February 1st, 2021, 11:26 am

Aggie formerly in Hawaii wrote:
January 31st, 2021, 9:46 pm
hipsterdoofus21 wrote:
January 31st, 2021, 8:19 pm
March Madness is a tv show, this year more so than any other. We’ve got 2 great cast members to offer the show in Queta and Smith. They’re both media darlings and Queta is a draft prospect. The Aggies could go 6-2 or 5-3 and still get in as long as they can beat Boise once. We’re not dealing with the days of old with a curmudgeon coach and slow down style. Lots of people still remember this team from the MW championship last year.
I don't know. Women loved Stew.
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Re: We now have two official Q1 wins.

Post by Mr. Sneelock » February 1st, 2021, 12:15 pm

Nobody has been able to reverse-engineer the NET rating yet?


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Re: We now have two official Q1 wins.

Post by ProvoAggie » February 1st, 2021, 2:28 pm

Mr. Sneelock wrote:
February 1st, 2021, 12:15 pm
Nobody has been able to reverse-engineer the NET rating yet?
People have come close but there are 2 issues:
1) The formula can change whenever they want it to change. They don't tell you when this happens so even if you get close they can just change it and you have to start over...once you think you have it figured out you can't test it against old data because the formula used then was different.
2) They only provide the NET rankings and not the scores. No one knows exactly how it works but teams frequently move several spots after doing something minor while another team can have a major upset that does very little. This is most likely caused by the margin being different between 2 spots. As an example, let's pretend that we have these rankings and scores below.

1 - 99.87
2 - 99.85
3 - 99.83
4 - 99.82
5 - 99.75
6 - 98.5
7 - 87.2
8 - 87.0
9 - 71.0
10 -70.3

In this example you can see that moving around between the top 6 spots wouldn't take much to change positioning...moving up from the 9 spot into the top 8 though would require a fairly large jump...we don't know the scores though so we really don't know how close 2 teams are in the rankings. Any reverse engineering would be attempting to get the teams ranked in the same order but getting it exact is probably not possible.



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