I have always been a big proponent of fouling a team when you are up 3 and having them go to the line as opposed to them hitting a three to tie. This does not seem to be the philosophy of many coaches. Last night I saw something happen that I have never witnessed before and it caused me to re-think the situation. I was watching a high school game and there were 4 seconds left in the game. Team A was down 3 bringing the ball in-bounds from under Team B's basket, in other words had to travel the length of the court. Team B fouled Team A with .8 seconds left and before Team A could get a 3 off. I thought it was the right call. The player from Team A goes to the line and makes the first free throw and they are now down 2. He intentionally misses the 2nd free throw and Team A gets the offensive rebound and tips it in to tie at the buzzer. Team A went on to win in double OT. I still think it was the right call, and Team A pulled off a much more difficult play than hitting a 3. What are your thoughts? I can't see this play working more than 5% of the time, but it worked last night.

That has to be a very low percentage thing unless there is a distinct height advantage for that rebound/tip. I agree that fouling is the right play in that situation. Let as much time as possible tick off the clock and then foul before the shot attempt.

It is very rare to miss a free throw and have the team tip it in with only 0.8 seconds remaining. There are always one offs, but I would take those one off chances versus not fouling and allowing the team to get off a good 3 point shot.

Say a 35% chance they make a 3.

Say 80% chance they make the first free throw. What percentage of missed free throws does the shooting team rebound? What is the percentage on the tip? Multiply all that together and my guess is you are looking at 2-4% success rate, if that.

AgTime wrote: ↑

January 27th, 2022, 9:41 pm

This is a bit old, but a good write up (by the best stats guy out there) about the different scenarios and the statistics behind the decisions. It’s really pretty close by the numbers, with the slight edge given to playing straight-up defense.

https://kenpom.com/blog/yet-another-stu ... when-up-3/

I believe many coaches shy away from fouling given it opens the door to losing the game in regulation, though a lot of that is a matter of how early/late you commit the foul and whether your opposition has some stud rebounders to try to block out.

Interesting. His data set includes any game in which the trailing team took possession down 3 between 5 and 12 seconds. Huge difference between fouling on what is sure to be the last possession leaving only a tip in or fouling early enough you have another exchange of possessions

I think fouling up 3 with 7-10 seconds left is probably a mistake because they can make 2, foul you, and have time for another possession perhaps only down 1 or 2.

What if the team tips the offensive rebound out and hits a 3? Even more rare I am sure, but possible.