Pac 12 playoff hopes

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Pac 12 playoff hopes

Post by BamaAggie » October 13th, 2018, 1:27 pm

They’re slowly going down the drain. Watching this Auburn dumpster fire lose to Tennessee basically takes any “quality loss” for the Pac. Oregon may beat UW and run the table -they’re in SLC next week- so that’s probably the only scenario where they get into the playoff. Even if Notre Dame loses and doesn’t take a P5 spot, Pac gets left out.

Change my mind.



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Re: Pac 12 playoff hopes

Post by Imakeitrain » October 13th, 2018, 6:07 pm

For the PAC to have a spot

Stanford has to lose to a PAC team prior to PAC 12 championship.

Washington wins out. (Also would solve above point)

WVU loses to Texas. WVU could lose to another team too- currently down at ISU

A current team currently considered “in” loses twice.


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Re: Pac 12 playoff hopes

Post by Jjoey53 » October 13th, 2018, 8:51 pm

If UW loses they are finished.


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Re: Pac 12 playoff hopes

Post by TrueBlueFan » October 14th, 2018, 1:16 pm

Bump.

Washington is done. Colorado is the last unbeaten team. Do they have any hope?


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Re: Pac 12 playoff hopes

Post by Aggiefan33 » October 14th, 2018, 1:19 pm

TrueBlueFan wrote:Bump.

Washington is done. Colorado is the last unbeaten team. Do they have any hope?
Colorado lost to USC last night


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Re: Pac 12 playoff hopes

Post by TrueBlueFan » October 14th, 2018, 1:33 pm

I didn’t see that... in that case. It is finished.


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Re: Pac 12 playoff hopes

Post by aggies22 » October 14th, 2018, 1:37 pm

Oregon still only has one loss.



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Re: Pac 12 playoff hopes

Post by Jjoey53 » October 14th, 2018, 2:39 pm

aggies22 wrote:Oregon still only has one loss.

Yes, but they are a longshot at best, lots of teams need to lose for them to get in.


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Re: Pac 12 playoff hopes

Post by aggies22 » October 14th, 2018, 2:47 pm

Jjoey53 wrote:
October 14th, 2018, 2:39 pm
aggies22 wrote:Oregon still only has one loss.

Yes, but they are a longshot at best, lots of teams need to lose for them to get in.


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True, but with plenty of time left, winning out could get them in. They clearly aren't in control of their own destiny. Wasn't the question who still has a shot?



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Re: Pac 12 playoff hopes

Post by Roy McAvoy » October 15th, 2018, 7:48 am

Oregon is really their only shot left. After this weekend, however, Oregon doesn't play a single team ranked right now the rest of the year (That would include a potential Pac 12 championship).

Oregon is their only hope and it's a real long shot. They should've beaten Stanford though. At one point their win probability that game was 99% as they had a 31-21 lead with 4 minutes left in the game. They fumbled with 1 minute left though that led to an overtime game and they lost in OT.



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Re: Pac 12 playoff hopes

Post by GeoAg » October 15th, 2018, 7:59 am

Still hoping for them to get someone in. Only way the MWC gets a chance at filling that cactus bowl slot.


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Re: Pac 12 playoff hopes

Post by Imakeitrain » October 16th, 2018, 12:25 pm

Oregon can win out and still not win the PAC 12.

I think there is a lot of circular logic in these polls. SEC losses aren't punished as heavily because SEC schools are considered better- and PAC schools I think are overly punished. I think Texas' loss to Maryland is worse than Oregon's loss to Stanford- but the B1G is assumed to be better- when the B1G hasn't really proven that this year. If one B1G team beats another then it's an example of how "good and competitive" the conference is. If one PAC team beats another it's "game over, lights out, the PAC is garbage." Another example of this is Iowa State beating WVU. If a PAC 12 team had been undefeated and lost to a team like ISU they would have dropped significantly more. Oregon BEATS Washington, and Washington drops further than WVU and Oregon barely climbs.

In addition, if every team above them loses a game (maybe even two games, in some cases) UCF will not be in the CFP. We think we have a playoff- what we really have is a false choice. I'm not one that thinks we can just keep expanding- because there will always be a "where do we draw the line"...

Due to the number of conferences there is almost nothing that can be done to resolve it either. Unlike in pro-sports where there are only 2 conferences (or Leagues as with MLB) and various divisions.


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Re: Pac 12 playoff hopes

Post by jpswensen » October 16th, 2018, 5:17 pm

Why is everyone forgetting WSU? Are you all just assuming they will Coug It and lose at some point. They have one early season loss to USC (who is 5-2 with losses to Stanford and one-loss Texas). If WSU finished with a 9 game win streak, a win over ranked Oregon and ranked UW, and a Pac 12 championship, I suspect they have to be in the discussion, right?


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Re: Pac 12 playoff hopes

Post by sam tingey » October 17th, 2018, 7:51 am

jpswensen wrote:
October 16th, 2018, 5:17 pm
Why is everyone forgetting WSU? Are you all just assuming they will Coug It and lose at some point. They have one early season loss to USC (who is 5-2 with losses to Stanford and one-loss Texas). If WSU finished with a 9 game win streak, a win over ranked Oregon and ranked UW, and a Pac 12 championship, I suspect they have to be in the discussion, right?
You suspect it but they don't. That is the point made in the OP. the playoff is for the SEC Big 10 and they hope Notre Dame. All the rest is just dressing.



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Re: Pac 12 playoff hopes

Post by slcagg » October 17th, 2018, 7:59 am

Remember when sjsu played Oregon close? Yeah at least 4 teams in the SEC would win the PAC 12 this year. Heck several big 12 teams would win the PAC 12 this year. I think we would have a good shot of winning the PAC 12 right now.



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Re: Pac 12 playoff hopes

Post by WaterPoloLaw » October 24th, 2018, 5:06 pm

The PAC is greatly overrated. The problem is that they really are not all that better than the MWC teams, if at all. The only real difference is that they are in larger markets, like LA, Denver, Salt Lake as opposed to San Diego, Colorado Springs, Ogden/Logan respectively.

I agree that if USU were in the PAC this year, they would have at least a decent shot at winning.

All the more reason we need to beat Washington State the next two seasons. Also, we need to stop scheduling teams like New Mexico State altogether. Seriously, I do not know who comes up with our OOC scheduling, but it could be way better.

The next two years look really good. In 2019, we play Wake Forest, Stony Brook, LSU and BYU. In 2020, we play Washington State, Southern Utah, Washington, and BYU. But, in 2021, we play Washington State, North Dakota, BYU and New Mexico State??

There are two problems with the last year scheduling. First, who knows how good BYU is going to be in future years. Independence is killing their program. In 3 years, BYU could be the equivalent of Weber State -- which would be really bad for our scheduling. Second, New Mexico State already IS Weber State -- independence has destroyed them. Third, there is at least some chance that both BYU and/or New Mexico State could join the MWC by then, making that scheduling pointless. Last, who the heck is North Dakota State.

Honestly, it is our own fault we don't fill the stadium seats with these types of games. Ideally, our OOC scheduling should look like this.

1) Home-and-Home, 1-1, Series with a PAC school that is NOT Utah. We NEED to start establishing competitiveness with the PAC due to geographic proximity. Washington State is a good start. Oregon State would also likely agree to some 1-1 series as would ASU, Colorado, or Arizona.
2) Home-and-Home, 1-1, Series with a Utah. This is THE most important rivalry we have. This game needs to be played every year if possible -- preferably home-home.
3) GEOGRAPHIC RIVAL FCS OPPONENT -- i.e., this means Big Sky Teams like SUU, Weber State, Idaho, Idaho State: These games are mainly pointless anyway. Might as well get the most bang for your buck by playing teams people actually recognize.
4) Another P5 or American Conference Team -- We need to also play teams in the American and/or other P5 schools -- preferably in a 1-1 series. I think Army and Navy would both agree to this.

Where does that leave BYU -- nowhere unless they can actually rejoin a conference. Playing a bad independent like BYU or New Mexico State will do nothing for our program until those two schools find a conference.

Go Aggies!



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Pac 12 playoff hopes

Post by Full » October 24th, 2018, 7:43 pm

WaterPoloLaw wrote:Honestly, it is our own fault we don't fill the stadium seats with these types of games. Ideally, our OOC scheduling should look like this.

1) Home-and-Home, 1-1, Series with a PAC school that is NOT Utah. We NEED to start establishing competitiveness with the PAC due to geographic proximity. Washington State is a good start. Oregon State would also likely agree to some 1-1 series as would ASU, Colorado, or Arizona.
2) Home-and-Home, 1-1, Series with a Utah. This is THE most important rivalry we have. This game needs to be played every year if possible -- preferably home-home.
3) GEOGRAPHIC RIVAL FCS OPPONENT -- i.e., this means Big Sky Teams like SUU, Weber State, Idaho, Idaho State: These games are mainly pointless anyway. Might as well get the most bang for your buck by playing teams people actually recognize.
4) Another P5 or American Conference Team -- We need to also play teams in the American and/or other P5 schools -- preferably in a 1-1 series. I think Army and Navy would both agree to this.

Where does that leave BYU -- nowhere unless they can actually rejoin a conference. Playing a bad independent like BYU or New Mexico State will do nothing for our program until those two schools find a conference.

Go Aggies!
My rebuttal.
1. Why play a PAC 12 ten when we lose away games against Arkansas State from the Sun Belt. You can say USU should beat PAC teams, but the last win USU has against a P5 was the 2012 Utes team that missed a bowl game (bad PAC team). The teams you mention have the ability to schedule any Mountain West team they want.... getting one a 1-1 is easier said then done.

2. Utah has had zero interest in even scheduling USU until their AD retired. I’m not sure they would schedule a 1-1 even as we beg them to schedule it.

3. We don’t fill the stadium for regional FCS teams. It’s our fault as fans for not showing up for these games when we had the opportunity to show these games were much better than the Tennessee Techs of the world.

4. I agree with this. However if you got the first three on your wishlist, this would need to be a revenue game. I love the Aggies and want everyone to attend the games and have as much fun as I do, but I’ve had a hard time giving away chair backs as recently as last November. We are not there as a fan base. I don’t know how much more I can do to get people to the games. I will say the AD and ticket office has been doing a great job this season in helping fans and students spread the excitement. The team has made it easier and is a lot of fun to watch.



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Re: Pac 12 playoff hopes

Post by OKAggie » October 24th, 2018, 9:34 pm

WaterPoloLaw wrote:
October 24th, 2018, 5:06 pm
The PAC is greatly overrated. The problem is that they really are not all that better than the MWC teams, if at all. The only real difference is that they are in larger markets, like LA, Denver, Salt Lake as opposed to San Diego, Colorado Springs, Ogden/Logan respectively.

I agree that if USU were in the PAC this year, they would have at least a decent shot at winning.

All the more reason we need to beat Washington State the next two seasons. Also, we need to stop scheduling teams like New Mexico State altogether. Seriously, I do not know who comes up with our OOC scheduling, but it could be way better.

The next two years look really good. In 2019, we play Wake Forest, Stony Brook, LSU and BYU. In 2020, we play Washington State, Southern Utah, Washington, and BYU. But, in 2021, we play Washington State, North Dakota, BYU and New Mexico State??

There are two problems with the last year scheduling. First, who knows how good BYU is going to be in future years. Independence is killing their program. In 3 years, BYU could be the equivalent of Weber State -- which would be really bad for our scheduling. Second, New Mexico State already IS Weber State -- independence has destroyed them. Third, there is at least some chance that both BYU and/or New Mexico State could join the MWC by then, making that scheduling pointless. Last, who the heck is North Dakota State.

Honestly, it is our own fault we don't fill the stadium seats with these types of games. Ideally, our OOC scheduling should look like this.

1) Home-and-Home, 1-1, Series with a PAC school that is NOT Utah. We NEED to start establishing competitiveness with the PAC due to geographic proximity. Washington State is a good start. Oregon State would also likely agree to some 1-1 series as would ASU, Colorado, or Arizona. We are still in a financial position that requires a money game every year. We can't make up the lost $1+ million we'll get from LSU or Washington by bringing Colorado or Arizona to the Mav. When a consistent $1M/year donor materializes, only then will this be feasible.

2) Home-and-Home, 1-1, Series with a Utah. This is THE most important rivalry we have. This game needs to be played every year if possible -- preferably home-home. You dream. It would be nice if this were the most important rivalry we have, and it may have been sometime early in my lifetime (I'm 61), but it isn't now and will likely never be again. You need two things to be a rivalry: to play, and to win occasionally. Those days are over.

3) GEOGRAPHIC RIVAL FCS OPPONENT -- i.e., this means Big Sky Teams like SUU, Weber State, Idaho, Idaho State: These games are mainly pointless anyway. Might as well get the most bang for your buck by playing teams people actually recognize. I've heard that Weber and Idaho State aren't willing to schedule us again for the time being -- we've been beating them pretty badly, and they can get better guarantees elsewhere. Nobody really cares whether we play Idaho State or North Dakota State.

4) Another P5 or American Conference Team -- We need to also play teams in the American and/or other P5 schools -- preferably in a 1-1 series. I think Army and Navy would both agree to this. Navy plays a full AAC schedule plus Army, Air Force and Notre Dame and a FCS team every year. We're not getting on their schedule. Army maybe but do you think the coaches would want another game against a triple option team? I don't.

Where does that leave BYU -- nowhere unless they can actually rejoin a conference. Playing a bad independent like BYU or New Mexico State will do nothing for our program until those two schools find a conference.

Go Aggies!


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