2019 W/L Predictions

USU78 · Post by **USU78** » December 18th, 2018, 12:38 pm

Hard to make hard predictions because of the uncertainty of personnel [early draft defections, recruitment, incomplete bowl results, and whatnot], but here is my stab at it:

Likely Wins (4-0):

Colorado State (3-9)
@New Mexico (3-9 in 2018)
Stony Brook (7-5)
Wyoming (6-6, no bowl game)

Likely Losses (0-2):

@Fresno State (12-2, 2018 MWC champs)
@LSU (9-3 before their bowl game)

Tossup Games(3-3):

@Air Force (5-7 in 2018)
Boise State (10-3 before their bowl game)
yBu (6-6 before their bowl game)
Nevada (7-5 before their bowl game)
@San Diego State (7-5 before their bowl game)
@Wake Forest (6-6 before their bowl game)

Overall, 7-5 as the likeliest outcome at this point. I don't think an uninterrupted move from 2018 to 2019 without coaching disruption would make any difference here, or even if we could magically retain this year's team. I might, of course, move Nevada and/or yBu to likely wins, but I doubt it. I think the tossup category is a coin toss on each game.

2004AG · Post by **2004AG** » December 18th, 2018, 12:41 pm

USU78 wrote:Hard to make hard predictions because of the uncertainty of personnel [early draft defections, recruitment, incomplete bowl results, and whatnot], but here is my stab at it:

Likely Wins (4-0):

Colorado State (3-9)
@New Mexico (3-9 in 2018)
Stony Brook (7-5)
Wyoming (6-6, no bowl game)

Likely Losses (0-2):

@Fresno State (12-2, 2018 MWC champs)
@LSU (9-3 before their bowl game)

Tossup Games(3-3):

@Air Force (5-7 in 2018)
Boise State (10-3 before their bowl game)
yBu (6-6 before their bowl game)
Nevada (7-5 before their bowl game)
@San Diego State (7-5 before their bowl game)
@Wake Forest (6-6 before their bowl game)

Overall, 7-5 as the likeliest outcome at this point. I don't think an uninterrupted move from 2018 to 2019 without coaching disruption would make any difference here, or even if we could magically retain this year's team. I might, of course, move Nevada and/or yBu to likely wins, but I doubt it. I think the tossup category is a coin toss on each game.

I think you’re overrating Nevada. I would put them as likely win. Air Force should be a likely win too.

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AggieUprising50 · Post by **AggieUprising50** » December 18th, 2018, 12:47 pm

I'd put Fresno State as a Toss Up. They just lost their starting QB and leading receiver.

Sike · Post by **Sike** » December 18th, 2018, 12:50 pm

USU78 wrote: ↑
December 18th, 2018, 12:38 pm
Hard to make hard predictions because of the uncertainty of personnel [early draft defections, recruitment, incomplete bowl results, and whatnot], but here is my stab at it:

Likely Wins (4-0):

Colorado State (3-9)
@New Mexico (3-9 in 2018)
Stony Brook (7-5)
Wyoming (6-6, no bowl game)

Likely Losses (0-2):

@Fresno State (12-2, 2018 MWC champs)
@LSU (9-3 before their bowl game)

Tossup Games(3-3):

@Air Force (5-7 in 2018)
Boise State (10-3 before their bowl game)
yBu (6-6 before their bowl game)
Nevada (7-5 before their bowl game)
@San Diego State (7-5 before their bowl game)
@Wake Forest (6-6 before their bowl game)

Overall, 7-5 as the likeliest outcome at this point. I don't think an uninterrupted move from 2018 to 2019 without coaching disruption would make any difference here, or even if we could magically retain this year's team. I might, of course, move Nevada and/or yBu to likely wins, but I doubt it. I think the tossup category is a coin toss on each game.

You literally copied my comment from another post....

Home games:
Stony Brook (finished their 2018 season 7-5, Airforce didn’t have a problem with them)
BYU (6-6 before their bowl game. Back to back to back? Hopefully)
Boise State (10-3 before their bowl game)
Colorado State (3-9 but we struggled)
Nevada (7-5, floored Colorado state, beat SDSU, Hawai’i and only lost to Boise by 4)
Wyoming (6-6, should have had a bowl game IMO)

Road Games:
Wake Forest (6-6 before their bowl game.)
LSU (9-3 before their bowl game)
Air Force (5-7 in 2018)
Fresno State (12-2, 2018 MWC champs)
New Mexico (3-9 in 2018)
San Diego State (7-5 before their bowl game, beat Boise at Boise.

Lots of bowl teams listed here and don’t we lose our entire offensive line? I’d be happy if we win 7 games next year.

Bybs25 · Post by **Bybs25** » December 18th, 2018, 12:55 pm

The only game I would say is a likely loss is LSU, but I would even move that to a toss up depending how we look and they look after week 2

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USU78 · Post by **USU78** » December 18th, 2018, 1:05 pm

Sike wrote: ↑
December 18th, 2018, 12:50 pm
You literally copied my comment from another post....

Of course I did. And I copyrighted it. Whatcha gonna do about it?

ViAggie · Post by **ViAggie** » December 18th, 2018, 1:07 pm

We always seem to get SDSU on the downswing. They sucked this year, I wish we could have played them.
We own Fresno over the last two games - destroyed them both times. We'll have he psychological advantage for sure

Nevada always scares me, for some reason they are one of the those teams who always manages to beat us.

BigBlueDart · Post by **BigBlueDart** » December 18th, 2018, 1:27 pm

ViAggie wrote: ↑
December 18th, 2018, 1:07 pm
Nevada always scares me, for some reason they are one of the those teams who always manages to beat us.

2016 - Nevada wins, 38-37
2015 - USU wins, 31-27
2011 - USU wins, 21-17
2010 - Nevada wins, 56-42
2009 - Nevada wins, 35-32

Seems like it's been a pretty even match up since the Andersen era began.

Chatman · Post by **Chatman** » December 18th, 2018, 1:27 pm

7 wins is a solid expectation considering the huge amount of loss to key players on the offensive side of the ball.

Zaggie07 · Post by **Zaggie07** » December 18th, 2018, 1:51 pm

USU78 wrote:Hard to make hard predictions because of the uncertainty of personnel [early draft defections, recruitment, incomplete bowl results, and whatnot], but here is my stab at it:

Likely Wins (4-0):

Colorado State (3-9)
@New Mexico (3-9 in 2018)
Stony Brook (7-5)
Wyoming (6-6, no bowl game)

Likely Losses (0-2):

@Fresno State (12-2, 2018 MWC champs)
@LSU (9-3 before their bowl game)

Tossup Games(3-3):

@Air Force (5-7 in 2018)
Boise State (10-3 before their bowl game)
yBu (6-6 before their bowl game)
Nevada (7-5 before their bowl game)
@San Diego State (7-5 before their bowl game)
@Wake Forest (6-6 before their bowl game)

Overall, 7-5 as the likeliest outcome at this point. I don't think an uninterrupted move from 2018 to 2019 without coaching disruption would make any difference here, or even if we could magically retain this year's team. I might, of course, move Nevada and/or yBu to likely wins, but I doubt it. I think the tossup category is a coin toss on each game.

I believe that we...

Will Win (3-0):
Colorado State (3-9)
@New Mexico (3-9 in 2018)
Stony Brook (7-5)

Should Win (3-1):
Wyoming (6-6, no bowl game)
@Air Force (5-7 in 2018)
yBu (6-6 before their bowl game)
Nevada (7-5 before their bowl game)

Can Win (2-2):
Boise State (10-3 before their bowl game)
@Fresno State (12-2, 2018 MWC champs)
@San Diego State (7-5 before their bowl game)
@Wake Forest (6-6 before their bowl game)

Might Win?(0-1):
@LSU (9-3 before their bowl game)

8-4. I'd be satisfied, thought a bit down, with 7-5.
I'd be really excited with 9-3 or better, especially if we continue our streak over byu and/or beat LSU, no matter where the 3 (or fewer) losses come from. Well, except Stony Brook. That would just be embarrassing.

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brian5562 · Post by **brian5562** » December 18th, 2018, 1:52 pm

8 wins should be the expectation going forward. Anything less than 8 wins any year will be a disappointment.

YoungBloodAggie · Post by **YoungBloodAggie** » December 18th, 2018, 2:03 pm

brian5562 wrote: ↑
December 18th, 2018, 1:52 pm
8 wins should be the expectation going forward. Anything less than 8 wins any year will be a disappointment.

I am not ready to accept this.

We are a developmental program, so if there comes a time where we happen to have a senior-heavy team that wins 10-11 games and we are left replacing 2/3rd or more of our starters, I am fully willing to accept a step back based on the cyclical nature of the sport.

Conversely, when we have a team that is starting mostly experienced juniors and seniors, I expect us to win.

brian5562 · Post by **brian5562** » December 18th, 2018, 3:16 pm

YoungBloodAggie wrote: ↑
December 18th, 2018, 2:03 pm

brian5562 wrote: ↑
December 18th, 2018, 1:52 pm
8 wins should be the expectation going forward. Anything less than 8 wins any year will be a disappointment.
I am not ready to accept this.

We are a developmental program, so if there comes a time where we happen to have a senior-heavy team that wins 10-11 games and we are left replacing 2/3rd or more of our starters, I am fully willing to accept a step back based on the cyclical nature of the sport.

Conversely, when we have a team that is starting mostly experienced juniors and seniors, I expect us to win.

Did it for 3 years straight 2012-2014 and should have done it in 2011. The next 3 years were below expectations and the obviously this year hit over 8 again. So in the last 8 years have hit over 8 wins 50% of the time. If the program is really growing then expecting 8 year in and year out is more than reasonable.

Sike · Post by **Sike** » December 18th, 2018, 3:45 pm

USU78 wrote: ↑
December 18th, 2018, 1:05 pm

Sike wrote: ↑
December 18th, 2018, 12:50 pm
You literally copied my comment from another post....
Of course I did. And I copyrighted it. Whatcha gonna do about it?

Congratulate you on a wonderful post!

YoungBloodAggie · Post by **YoungBloodAggie** » December 18th, 2018, 3:51 pm

brian5562 wrote: ↑
December 18th, 2018, 3:16 pm

YoungBloodAggie wrote: ↑
December 18th, 2018, 2:03 pm

brian5562 wrote: ↑
December 18th, 2018, 1:52 pm
8 wins should be the expectation going forward. Anything less than 8 wins any year will be a disappointment.
I am not ready to accept this.

We are a developmental program, so if there comes a time where we happen to have a senior-heavy team that wins 10-11 games and we are left replacing 2/3rd or more of our starters, I am fully willing to accept a step back based on the cyclical nature of the sport.

Conversely, when we have a team that is starting mostly experienced juniors and seniors, I expect us to win.
Did it for 3 years straight 2012-2014 and should have done it in 2011. The next 3 years were below expectations and the obviously this year hit over 8 again. So in the last 8 years have hit over 8 wins 50% of the time. If the program is really growing then expecting 8 year in and year out is more than reasonable.

We have also stepped up to a new level of competition. The number one reason you will find for that dip in form from 2015-2017 is the opposition was more difficult. So yes, when we play teams like SJSU and UNLV we should adjust our expectations. When Fresno and SDSU are good, we should also adjust our expectations. 2012 is the obvious outlier as we got to lay it up on teams like Texas State, NMSU and UTSA, which is no longer a possibility. Look at the 2011 team. While 2012 was better, I don't know that they were four wins better. The opponents were just stronger in 2011.

I also don't know what you mean when you say that the program is growing. Sure, revenues are up and we don't suck like we did for thirty years, but at this point the incremental gains are much more difficult and it's not like we are outpacing most of our peers for year over year growth. We have a good system in place, but there will inevitably be volatility in the results, especially because a sample size of 12-14 can skew one way or the other pretty easily.

Let me check real quick how many teams have won AT LEAST eight games every year for the past five years...

11 teams. Out of 130. That is 8.5% of all FBS teams. And it only includes 3 G5 programs (Memphis, Boise, and somehow Toledo if they can win their bowl game on Friday). So I might recommend checking out one of those schools if you are genuinely interested in a team that always wins at least eight games.

USU78 · Post by **USU78** » December 18th, 2018, 4:22 pm

Sike wrote: ↑
December 18th, 2018, 3:45 pm

USU78 wrote: ↑
December 18th, 2018, 1:05 pm

Sike wrote: ↑
December 18th, 2018, 12:50 pm
You literally copied my comment from another post....
Of course I did. And I copyrighted it. Whatcha gonna do about it?
Congratulate you on a wonderful post!

Ha!

LKGates · Post by **LKGates** » December 18th, 2018, 5:01 pm

I'm expecting 9-3 or 8-4. I expect to lose to LSU. I think we probably lose to Fresno. I think we'll probably lose one or both of Boise and San Diego. San Diego may be the taller order of the two. We have Boise in Logan, but San Diego on the road. SDSU has had our number (1-12 all time) even more than Boise (5-18 all time).

I expect to beat BYU like a red haired step-child, to go three in a row for the first time since 1974.

ViAggie · Post by **ViAggie** » December 18th, 2018, 5:26 pm

BigBlueDart wrote: ↑
December 18th, 2018, 1:27 pm

ViAggie wrote: ↑
December 18th, 2018, 1:07 pm
Nevada always scares me, for some reason they are one of the those teams who always manages to beat us.
2016 - Nevada wins, 38-37
2015 - USU wins, 31-27
2011 - USU wins, 21-17
2010 - Nevada wins, 56-42
2009 - Nevada wins, 35-32

Seems like it's been a pretty even match up since the Andersen era began.

Historically we're 6-18 vs Nevada. BAD! Since joining the Big West moving forward, they own us. Hell we didn't even beat them in 93 when we won the BW and got to go to the LB Bowl.

WasatchAggie · Post by **WasatchAggie** » December 18th, 2018, 6:27 pm

We’re playing yBu at home. We should have that as a will win.

AGGIEinIOWA · Post by **AGGIEinIOWA** » December 18th, 2018, 6:39 pm

YBU played a lot of young players this year, like we did last season. I expect them to be much improved next year. Beating them, even at home, will be a toss up though I like to think we have the edge.

Madmartigan · Post by **Madmartigan** » December 18th, 2018, 6:42 pm

AGGIEinIOWA wrote: ↑
December 18th, 2018, 6:39 pm
YBU played a lot of young players this year, like we did last season. I expect them to be much improved next year. Beating them, even at home, will be a toss up though I like to think we have the edge.

BYU has very little speed on offense and are far less physical on defense. They don’t scare me like they used to.

YoungBloodAggie · Post by **YoungBloodAggie** » December 18th, 2018, 7:50 pm

AGGIEinIOWA wrote: ↑
December 18th, 2018, 6:39 pm
YBU played a lot of young players this year, like we did last season. I expect them to be much improved next year. Beating them, even at home, will be a toss up though I like to think we have the edge.

They will lose about seven starters, so experience should be better next year. Unfortunately for them, we are returning our very best skill players and also had a lot of opportunities to play our younger guys in blowouts.

YoungBloodAggie · Post by **YoungBloodAggie** » December 18th, 2018, 7:51 pm

ViAggie wrote: ↑
December 18th, 2018, 5:26 pm

BigBlueDart wrote: ↑
December 18th, 2018, 1:27 pm

ViAggie wrote: ↑
December 18th, 2018, 1:07 pm
Nevada always scares me, for some reason they are one of the those teams who always manages to beat us.
2016 - Nevada wins, 38-37
2015 - USU wins, 31-27
2011 - USU wins, 21-17
2010 - Nevada wins, 56-42
2009 - Nevada wins, 35-32

Seems like it's been a pretty even match up since the Andersen era began.
Historically we're 6-18 vs Nevada. BAD! Since joining the Big West moving forward, they own us. Hell we didn't even beat them in 93 when we won the BW and got to go to the LB Bowl.

BIBA LAS BEGAS

UtahStizzle · Post by **UtahStizzle** » December 18th, 2018, 8:55 pm

YoungBloodAggie wrote:
brian5562 wrote: ↑
December 18th, 2018, 3:16 pm

YoungBloodAggie wrote: ↑
December 18th, 2018, 2:03 pm

brian5562 wrote: ↑
December 18th, 2018, 1:52 pm
8 wins should be the expectation going forward. Anything less than 8 wins any year will be a disappointment.
I am not ready to accept this.

We are a developmental program, so if there comes a time where we happen to have a senior-heavy team that wins 10-11 games and we are left replacing 2/3rd or more of our starters, I am fully willing to accept a step back based on the cyclical nature of the sport.

Conversely, when we have a team that is starting mostly experienced juniors and seniors, I expect us to win.
Did it for 3 years straight 2012-2014 and should have done it in 2011. The next 3 years were below expectations and the obviously this year hit over 8 again. So in the last 8 years have hit over 8 wins 50% of the time. If the program is really growing then expecting 8 year in and year out is more than reasonable.
We have also stepped up to a new level of competition. The number one reason you will find for that dip in form from 2015-2017 is the opposition was more difficult. So yes, when we play teams like SJSU and UNLV we should adjust our expectations. When Fresno and SDSU are good, we should also adjust our expectations. 2012 is the obvious outlier as we got to lay it up on teams like Texas State, NMSU and UTSA, which is no longer a possibility. Look at the 2011 team. While 2012 was better, I don't know that they were four wins better. The opponents were just stronger in 2011.

I also don't know what you mean when you say that the program is growing. Sure, revenues are up and we don't suck like we did for thirty years, but at this point the incremental gains are much more difficult and it's not like we are outpacing most of our peers for year over year growth. We have a good system in place, but there will inevitably be volatility in the results, especially because a sample size of 12-14 can skew one way or the other pretty easily.

Let me check real quick how many teams have won AT LEAST eight games every year for the past five years...

11 teams. Out of 130. That is 8.5% of all FBS teams. And it only includes 3 G5 programs (Memphis, Boise, and somehow Toledo if they can win their bowl game on Friday). So I might recommend checking out one of those schools if you are genuinely interested in a team that always wins at least eight games.

Um our first two years of the MWC we won 9 and 10 games.

bazinga22 · Post by **bazinga22** » December 18th, 2018, 9:07 pm

I'd put BSU in likely losses with LSU and Fresno.BSU is absolutely loaded.Have you seen their recruiting class coming in https://247sports.com/college/boise-sta ... l/Commits/

bazinga22 · Post by **bazinga22** » December 18th, 2018, 9:19 pm

I know we have BSU at home.But they are still going to be really good.They always have better talent than us.I looked who they lose as seniors and who's coming in they are bringing in higher rated talent than players leaving.Seems they'll reload.

YoungBloodAggie · Post by **YoungBloodAggie** » December 19th, 2018, 6:21 am

UtahStizzle wrote: ↑
December 18th, 2018, 8:55 pm
Um our first two years of the MWC we won 9 and 10 games.

I’m glad you read the whole post, so you definitely saw where I said that trading UNLV and SJSU for Fresno and SDSU should shift our expectations.

bazinga22 · Post by **bazinga22** » December 19th, 2018, 5:07 pm

QB - Brett Rypien - Rated at 0.9044 by Scout.com - Outgoing Senior

QB - Hank Bachmaier - Rated at 0.9166 by Scout.com

QB - Kaiden Bennett - Rated at 0.8452 by Scout.com

-------------------------

RB - Skyler Siebold - Not rated by Scout.com in 2014 - Outgoing Senior

RB - George Holani - Rated at 0.8810 by Scout.com

RB - Keegan Duncan - Rated at 0.8537 by Scout.com

-------------------------

TE - Chase Blakley - Rated at 0.8711 by Scout.com in 2014 - Outgoing Senior

TE - Austin Griffin - Rated at 0.8905 by Scout.com

-------------------------

WR - A.J. Richardson - Rated at 0.8406 by Scout.com in 2013 - Outgoing Senior

WR - Sean Modster - Rated at 0.8087 by Scout.com in 2014

WR - Khyheem Waleed - Rated at 0.8689 by Scout.com

WR- Shea Whiting - Rated at 0.8366 by Scout.com
-------------------------

OL - Andres Preciado - Rated at 0.7724 by Scout.com in 2014 - Outgoing Senior

OL - Zachary Troughton - Rated at 0.7993 by Scout.com in 2017 - Outgoing Senior

OL - Ben Dooley - Rated at 0.8395 by Scout.com

OL - Jacob Golden - Rated at 0.8269 by Scout.com

-------------------------

DE - Jabril Frazier - Rated at 0.8636 by Scout.com in 2014 - Outgoing Senior

DE - Durant Miles - Rated at 0.8300 by Scout.com in 2013 - Outgoing Senior

DE - Isaiah Bagnah - Rated at 0.8352 by Scout.com

DE - Michael Callahan - Rated at 0.8323 by Scout.com

DE- Dylan Hall -Rated at 0.8452 by Scout.com

LB - Tony Lashley - Rated by Scout.com at 0.7666 in 2014 - Outgoing Senior

LB - Blake Whitlock - Not rated by Scout.com in 2014 - Outgoing Senior

LB - Joseph Inda - Not rated by Scout.com in 2017 - Outgoing Senior

LB - Casey Kline - Rated at 0.909 by Scout.com

LB - _________

LB - _________

-------------------------

CB - Tyler Horton - Rated by Scout.com at 0.8288 in 2015 - Outgoing Senior

CB - Markel Reed - Rated at 0.8473 by Scout.com

CB- JL Skinner- Rated at 0.8516 by Scout.com
-------------------------

PK - Haden Hoggarth - Not rated by Scout.com - Outgoing Senior

PK - _______

-------------------------

P - Quinn Skillin - Not rated by Scout.com - Outgoing Senior

P - ________

-------------------------
That's who BSU is losing for seniors and players coming in

NVAggie · Post by **NVAggie** » December 20th, 2018, 9:18 am

7-5 would be the low end of my expectations. 6-6 would be a disappointment. 8-4 would be my expectation for next year. Anything above that would be a good year.

Post by **AggiesForever** » December 20th, 2018, 9:30 am

Ron, I think you're too pessimistic.

Boise State and Fresno State are both graduating their QB's and key skill players. San Diego State got pummelled by Ohio 27-0 last night. Nevada is graduating their quarterback and many skill players. The schools we would normally be very concerned about are going through their own retooling due to major graduations.

Meanwhile USU returns its record-setting QB, both "starting" running backs, several of its wide receivers (including a consensus all-American kick returner and a national leader in punt returns), a TE with starting experience, several starting O-linemen (with several redshirted and kept in reserve this past year in anticipation of this year) . . . and that's just the offense.

While I think 8 wins is the floor for next years team, I also believe another 11-2 season is just as possible. If Gary & Co. can fill a couple of holes with some good JC talent, I see no reason why USU can't roll on in 2019. Yeah, I know who we're playing, but I also know who we are . . . pretty darn good!

bazinga22 · Post by **bazinga22** » December 20th, 2018, 10:21 am

Boise will have more depth than Fresno.They are going to pretty much reload every year.SDSU and Fresno and Nevada might not be as good next year.

bazinga22 · Post by **bazinga22** » December 20th, 2018, 10:22 am

Weaver,Mattision and Cleveland are returning not going to the nfl they are staying

dirtnsnow · Post by **dirtnsnow** » December 20th, 2018, 2:09 pm

bazinga22 wrote: ↑
December 20th, 2018, 10:22 am
Weaver,Mattision and Cleveland are returning not going to the nfl they are staying

Ok.

thegreendalegelf · Post by **thegreendalegelf** » December 20th, 2018, 2:23 pm

My take:
Ranked from most likely win to least likely win

Odds of winning 50 to 99.9:
Stony Brook
Colorado State
@New Mexico
Wyoming
@Air Force
BYU-P
Nevada
@San Diego State
@Wake Forest

Odds of winning 0.1 to 49.9:
Boise State
@Fresno State
@LSU

I expect 9-3 this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see us beat Boise but lose to Wake, or beat Fresno but lose to BYU-P. I give us a 2% chance of beating LSU.

LKGates · Post by **LKGates** » December 20th, 2018, 2:40 pm

thegreendalegelf wrote: ↑
December 20th, 2018, 2:23 pm
My take:
Ranked from most likely win to least likely win

Odds of winning 50 to 99.9:
Stony Brook
Colorado State
@New Mexico
Wyoming
@Air Force
BYU-P
Nevada
@San Diego State
@Wake Forest

Odds of winning 0.1 to 49.9:
Boise State
@Fresno State
@LSU

I expect 9-3 this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see us beat Boise but lose to Wake, or beat Fresno but lose to BYU-P. I give us a 2% chance of beating LSU.

After yesterday's embarrassing performance by SDSU, this looks about right to me. Unfortunately, even if we go 10-2 again next year, and lose to Boise, I suspect we won't go to the conference championship game. For the foreseeable future, the path to the CCG includes beating Boise.

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