Football Home Game
Sat, August 31, 2024
Sat, August 31, 2024
Basketball Home Game
Fri, November 1, 2024
Fri, November 1, 2024
Net Rankings
-
- Posts: 1172
- Joined: March 12th, 2018, 6:51 pm
- Has thanked: 195 times
- Been thanked: 345 times
Re: Net Rankings
Probably both. They definitely are not a team that should be able to beat us up in a game. Even on the roadUtahStizzle wrote: ↑January 28th, 2019, 8:23 pmI think it was just byu playing really well. Look at their home record and games.Usu0505 wrote:I have been trying to stay away from comparing last year to this year but since its been brought up again prob my biggest issue with duryea was he couldnt get the team motivated and bringing their A game night in and night out. He actually had some decent wins (i.e. at unlv and in the conference tourney) last year but you never knew which aggie team was going to show up. So far Coach Smith has done a great job at getting the guys ready and in the zone to play every game, minus BYU which i think was more just stage fright.
Its refreshing to know that we wont have let downs in games we should for sure win and will show up and play well for the big games also.
- These users thanked the author Usu0505 for the post:
- Coloraggie
Re: Net Rankings
The Aggies jumped up to #34 from #37 with the win last night. They were as low as #40 or #41 last week. This is a good position to be with about four weeks left in the regular season.
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketbal ... t-rankings
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketbal ... t-rankings
-
- SJSU Ultimate Loser Award Winner - Given to someone that should probably give up but won't.
- Posts: 23464
- Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 8:09 am
- Location: Where the sagebrush grows!
- Has thanked: 1417 times
- Been thanked: 3217 times
Re: Net Rankings
I will be interested to see how the committee looks at the NET rankings for NCAA inclusion.
-
- Posts: 8374
- Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 12:25 pm
- Has thanked: 1002 times
- Been thanked: 875 times
Re: Net Rankings
I suspect somewhat like the RPI. In other words, ignore it when convenient and use it when you need justification.
- aceofspadeskb
- Posts: 4487
- Joined: September 10th, 2012, 12:50 pm
- Has thanked: 317 times
- Been thanked: 296 times
Re: Net Rankings
There are 36 at-large spots in the tournament. I think if we want to make it as an at-large bid we will need to be in the high 20's in the NET. Utah State doesn't turn heads, and the committee is in the business of making money.
-
- SJSU Ultimate Loser Award Winner - Given to someone that should probably give up but won't.
- Posts: 23464
- Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 8:09 am
- Location: Where the sagebrush grows!
- Has thanked: 1417 times
- Been thanked: 3217 times
- flying_scotsman2.0
- Posts: 3496
- Joined: January 23rd, 2018, 12:29 pm
- Location: The Mighty City-State of Roy, Utah
- Has thanked: 5836 times
- Been thanked: 2208 times
Re: Net Rankings
People are starting to talk about USU. Just keep winning and the rest will take care of itself.
-
- Posts: 8841
- Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 1:39 am
- Has thanked: 917 times
- Been thanked: 536 times
Re: Net Rankings
Many of the top 36 will be getting automatic bids, roughly 7-8aceofspadeskb wrote: ↑February 6th, 2019, 8:19 amThere are 36 at-large spots in the tournament. I think if we want to make it as an at-large bid we will need to be in the high 20's in the NET. Utah State doesn't turn heads, and the committee is in the business of making money.
-
- Posts: 8841
- Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 1:39 am
- Has thanked: 917 times
- Been thanked: 536 times
Re: Net Rankings
The one difference is they specifically created the NET rating new for this season. It'd be pretty asinine to do that and then ignore it right away, but maybe that's wishful thinking. RPI was easier to ignore/justify ignoring because it was a flawed rating system, if they ignore this one too then what was the point of changing anything?
Re: Net Rankings
Both of these posts are relevant. If the selection process were based entirely on the ratings, the top 41 or 42 teams would get at-large invitations or would have automatic bids. Any team below that point would need to have an automatic bid.MetsJetsAggies wrote: ↑February 6th, 2019, 12:42 pmMany of the top 36 will be getting automatic bids, roughly 7-8aceofspadeskb wrote: ↑February 6th, 2019, 8:19 amThere are 36 at-large spots in the tournament. I think if we want to make it as an at-large bid we will need to be in the high 20's in the NET. Utah State doesn't turn heads, and the committee is in the business of making money.
In practice, the bubble is from about #32 to about #55 and, of course the better the rating, the better the resume. Teams below about #55 are generally not going to make it, and anything about #32 and higher will be almost always invited. There are some outliers.
In this case, if USU were to be in the low 30s or better, their chances are extremely good. In addition to having a very respectable NET Rating, the rest of the resume would be quite good. Achieving a NET Rating that good would require continued winning, but wouldn’t require running the table.
- aceofspadeskb
- Posts: 4487
- Joined: September 10th, 2012, 12:50 pm
- Has thanked: 317 times
- Been thanked: 296 times
Re: Net Rankings
True. Doesn't change the fact that Utah State doesn't turn heads like other schools ranked lower in NET. Look at the teams immediately behind the aggies in NET right now:MetsJetsAggies wrote: ↑February 6th, 2019, 12:42 pmMany of the top 36 will be getting automatic bids, roughly 7-8aceofspadeskb wrote: ↑February 6th, 2019, 8:19 amThere are 36 at-large spots in the tournament. I think if we want to make it as an at-large bid we will need to be in the high 20's in the NET. Utah State doesn't turn heads, and the committee is in the business of making money.
35. NC State
36. Ohio State
37. TCU
38. Oklahoma
39. Ole Miss
40. St. John's
41. Texas
42. Florida
43. UCF
44. Indiana
45. Alabama
Of those, I'm betting that all but UCF would jump us in the committee's mind.
-
- Posts: 8841
- Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 1:39 am
- Has thanked: 917 times
- Been thanked: 536 times
Re: Net Rankings
We need the teams we've beaten to continue to do well. Specifically St Mary's (top 50), Fresno (top 100), Irvine and UVU (top 125 but not a great chance at breaking the top 100 unfortunately). A win over Reno would be a huge resume booster, our only loss outside of the top 100 right now is BYU and they could get back in the top 100 as they're around 104
-
- Posts: 8374
- Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 12:25 pm
- Has thanked: 1002 times
- Been thanked: 875 times
Re: Net Rankings
While the NCAA states that NET will be the primary tool to evaluate teams, other metrics will be used including KenPom, Kevin Pauga’s Index (KPI), Sagarin, ESPN’s Power Index and as Dan Gavitt says, subjectivity (who knew?). This is how we rank out in these other metrics:
KPI: #53 (projected #2 seed in the NIT
Ken Pom: #39
Sagarin: #54 (before the FSU win)
NET: #34
ESPN: #48
Subjectivity: we’re screwed
All-in-all we’ve still got some work to do. I agree with MJA that OOC teams we’ve played need to continue to do well and that we need to keep winning, and hopefully beat the spread in our wins. We don’t need to beat Nevada to get in, but that would be a huge boost, not only to our credentials but in perhaps winnng a share of the conference regular season championship.
KPI: #53 (projected #2 seed in the NIT
Ken Pom: #39
Sagarin: #54 (before the FSU win)
NET: #34
ESPN: #48
Subjectivity: we’re screwed
All-in-all we’ve still got some work to do. I agree with MJA that OOC teams we’ve played need to continue to do well and that we need to keep winning, and hopefully beat the spread in our wins. We don’t need to beat Nevada to get in, but that would be a huge boost, not only to our credentials but in perhaps winnng a share of the conference regular season championship.
-
- Posts: 46
- Joined: January 31st, 2011, 1:41 pm
- Has thanked: 1 time
- Been thanked: 12 times
Re: Net Rankings
Unfortunately, I don't really think any of these rankings really matter... the only ranking that matters is what conference we are in. Right now, Mountain West means 1 bid - Nevada. Unless we can't pull the upset and beat them in the tourney (aka SDSU last year), then we are not going. I don't know what happened in the eyes of the committee between 2015 and before when we had multiple bids to 2016, and 2017 when there was only the bid for the tourney winner.
Think we had 5 in the tourney in 2014 or 2013. And now everyone is penciling in the MWC as a 1 bid league. I guess penciling in is the wrong term though, its Sharpie.
I remember back to 2003 or whenever that was that we were ranked in the top 25 and got snubbed because we lost in the championship game of the Big West.
Think we had 5 in the tourney in 2014 or 2013. And now everyone is penciling in the MWC as a 1 bid league. I guess penciling in is the wrong term though, its Sharpie.
I remember back to 2003 or whenever that was that we were ranked in the top 25 and got snubbed because we lost in the championship game of the Big West.
-
- Posts: 12841
- Joined: November 3rd, 2016, 8:47 pm
- Has thanked: 1289 times
- Been thanked: 2358 times
-
- Posts: 8841
- Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 1:39 am
- Has thanked: 917 times
- Been thanked: 536 times
Re: Net Rankings
As good as Nebraska's net rating may be, I'm not sure they can get in the tourney after going like 5-15 in conf play
Re: Net Rankings
Good observation. Nebraska is currently all alone in 13th place in the Big Ten. Fifteen years ago, I wouldn’t have guessed that 13th place in the Big Ten was a possibility for anyone. Nebraska has played itself out of the bubble.MetsJetsAggies wrote: ↑February 6th, 2019, 9:55 pmAs good as Nebraska's net rating may be, I'm not sure they can get in the tourney after going like 5-15 in conf play
-
- Posts: 12841
- Joined: November 3rd, 2016, 8:47 pm
- Has thanked: 1289 times
- Been thanked: 2358 times
Re: Net Rankings
Arizona State was in last year with a bad in-confernce record.MetsJetsAggies wrote: ↑February 6th, 2019, 9:55 pmAs good as Nebraska's net rating may be, I'm not sure they can get in the tourney after going like 5-15 in conf play
- bigblue
- Pick'em Champ - '12 Kickoff; '16 Bowl; '19 WTHCG; '19 BB Predict The Score
- Posts: 2719
- Joined: March 5th, 2015, 7:59 pm
- Location: The suburbs of Lewiston
- Has thanked: 199 times
- Been thanked: 370 times
Re: Net Rankings
The real questions are which loses are at home and by how much?SLB wrote:Net Rankings update
#33 Nebraska, #31 Baylor, and #26 Mississippi State lost.
Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk
Last edited by bigblue on February 6th, 2019, 10:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Well the universe is shaped exactly like the earth
If you go straight long enough you'll end up where you were
If you go straight long enough you'll end up where you were
- bigblue
- Pick'em Champ - '12 Kickoff; '16 Bowl; '19 WTHCG; '19 BB Predict The Score
- Posts: 2719
- Joined: March 5th, 2015, 7:59 pm
- Location: The suburbs of Lewiston
- Has thanked: 199 times
- Been thanked: 370 times
Re: Net Rankings
I blame failure to proof read and autocorrect. Although drinking is a good excuse.
Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk
Well the universe is shaped exactly like the earth
If you go straight long enough you'll end up where you were
If you go straight long enough you'll end up where you were
-
- Posts: 12841
- Joined: November 3rd, 2016, 8:47 pm
- Has thanked: 1289 times
- Been thanked: 2358 times
-
- Posts: 2052
- Joined: November 6th, 2010, 9:04 pm
- Has thanked: 87 times
- Been thanked: 919 times
Re: Net Rankings
It's interesting (to me anyway) that according to Net Rankings there are currently 20 teams with 7 or more true road wins . USU has 6. By comparison, the UN Wolf Pack has 8.
That list of 20 is led by #31 Lipscomb, #71 Vermont and #161 NJIT with 9 each.
Of those 20, not a single one is from the power 5 or 6 conferences.
#1 Virginia has 6. #2 Gonzaga has 5. #3 Duke has 4.
Because of this data, I suspect that the committee may look into finding a way to refine the importance of a road win.
That list of 20 is led by #31 Lipscomb, #71 Vermont and #161 NJIT with 9 each.
Of those 20, not a single one is from the power 5 or 6 conferences.
#1 Virginia has 6. #2 Gonzaga has 5. #3 Duke has 4.
Because of this data, I suspect that the committee may look into finding a way to refine the importance of a road win.
- Aglicious
- Site Admin
- Posts: 7152
- Joined: January 14th, 2004, 12:00 am
- Location: Vega$
- Has thanked: 936 times
- Been thanked: 2435 times
Re: Net Rankings
I was looking at this very thing a couple of nights ago and was shocked at how few road games many of the "top teams" have played period, let alone how many they've won. The one that really stood out to me was Houston - they've played 22 total games and only been on the road 6 times... including ZERO neutral site games!! Nothing like playing 73% of your games at home.SectionBAggie wrote: ↑February 7th, 2019, 2:50 pmIt's interesting (to me anyway) that according to Net Rankings there are currently 20 teams with 7 or more true road wins . USU has 6. By comparison, the UN Wolf Pack has 8.
That list of 20 is led by #31 Lipscomb, #71 Vermont and #161 NJIT with 9 each.
Of those 20, not a single one is from the power 5 or 6 conferences.
#1 Virginia has 6. #2 Gonzaga has 5. #3 Duke has 4.
Because of this data, I suspect that the committee may look into finding a way to refine the importance of a road win.
- treesap32
- Moderator
- Posts: 16800
- Joined: July 28th, 2005, 1:00 am
- Location: Washington D.C.
- Has thanked: 1141 times
- Been thanked: 2688 times
- Contact:
Re: Net Rankings
The NCAA and Committee have been saying that they are going to start rewarding teams for going on the road and winning on the road. We'll see if that's actually the case or if they stick with the tried and true eye-test and hats-in-the-mall evaluation methods.SectionBAggie wrote: ↑February 7th, 2019, 2:50 pmIt's interesting (to me anyway) that according to Net Rankings there are currently 20 teams with 7 or more true road wins . USU has 6. By comparison, the UN Wolf Pack has 8.
That list of 20 is led by #31 Lipscomb, #71 Vermont and #161 NJIT with 9 each.
Of those 20, not a single one is from the power 5 or 6 conferences.
#1 Virginia has 6. #2 Gonzaga has 5. #3 Duke has 4.
Because of this data, I suspect that the committee may look into finding a way to refine the importance of a road win.
- dyedblue
- Posts: 8431
- Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 4:21 pm
- Has thanked: 24 times
- Been thanked: 842 times
Re: Net Rankings
I would love to see how many non-conference road games Michigan State played in the last 10 years.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
“The winning team has a dedication. It will have a core of veteran players who set the standards. They will not accept defeat.” --Merlin Olsen
-
- SJSU Ultimate Loser Award Winner - Given to someone that should probably give up but won't.
- Posts: 23464
- Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 8:09 am
- Location: Where the sagebrush grows!
- Has thanked: 1417 times
- Been thanked: 3217 times
-
- Posts: 8374
- Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 12:25 pm
- Has thanked: 1002 times
- Been thanked: 875 times
Re: Net Rankings
I’ll believe in the be-all and end-all of NET when Wofford (#29) and Lipscomb (#31) receive at-large NCAA invites if they don’t win their conference tournaments.
BTW, we dropped in Sagarins from #54 to #55 after our FSU win.
TeamRankings projects the following probabilities for wins in our toughest remaining games:
Nevada - 37%
SDS (away) - 54%
BSU - 62%
CSU - 77%
Our games against NM, AFA, WYO and SDS (home) are all > 80% probabilities of wins.
- ChicAggie
- Posts: 2816
- Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 1:18 pm
- Location: Chicago
- Has thanked: 357 times
- Been thanked: 380 times
Re: Net Rankings
Does Sagarin take "margin of victory" into account?
"Good is the enemy of great.” ~ Jim Collins
-
- Posts: 2052
- Joined: November 6th, 2010, 9:04 pm
- Has thanked: 87 times
- Been thanked: 919 times
Re: Net Rankings
Understanding that these are indeed only probabilities, if USU were to win only those four games and finish 12-6, BSU would have to finish 7-1 to move past the Aggies to the 5-seed. That's a tough climb.
CSU would have to go undefeated to even tie. That's even tougher than BSU's climb.
No other teams could catch USU.
A lofty view indeed for the team picked 9th.
-
- Posts: 8374
- Joined: November 3rd, 2010, 12:25 pm
- Has thanked: 1002 times
- Been thanked: 875 times
Re: Net Rankings
Sagarin’ predictor model takes MOV into account. But apparently there is a “diminishing returns” element which prevents a team from benefiting from running up the score on a lesser team.
His Elo system, only took into account wins and losses. I do not see that he publishes this any longer. He included the Elo system (which is derived from the chess rating system) because the BCS was using him to help determine who would play in the championship game but they didn’t want MOV to be a factor. So in 2002 Sagarin used Elo while other predictors who had been part of the BCS selection dropped out rather than discontinue their MOV elements.
-
- Posts: 1329
- Joined: November 8th, 2010, 7:57 pm
- Has thanked: 236 times
- Been thanked: 425 times
Re: Net Rankings
Arizona State beat Washington handing them first pac-12 loss after getting blown out by terrible WSU team
-
- Posts: 12841
- Joined: November 3rd, 2016, 8:47 pm
- Has thanked: 1289 times
- Been thanked: 2358 times
Re: Net Rankings
They are back up to #37, up one after beating Wyoming. They are now ahead of Lipscomb, so there are only six teams ahead of them from conferences outside what I’ll call the six high major conferences: P5 plus Big East. Those are Gonzaga, Houston, Nevada, Cincinnati, Buffalo and Wofford.
If the Aggies can win out except for a home loss to Nevada and a loss in the conference championship game, I’m guessing they will finish at about #35, and quite possibly ahead of all of the schools I mentioned except for Gonzaga, Houston, Nevada and Cincinnati.
If they can win all games through the conference semifinals (including Nevada), I’m guessing they will be #25 to #28 going into the conference championship game.
If the Aggies can win out except for a home loss to Nevada and a loss in the conference championship game, I’m guessing they will finish at about #35, and quite possibly ahead of all of the schools I mentioned except for Gonzaga, Houston, Nevada and Cincinnati.
If they can win all games through the conference semifinals (including Nevada), I’m guessing they will be #25 to #28 going into the conference championship game.