Conference Record?

brownjeans · Post by **brownjeans** » December 31st, 2018, 9:33 am

The selection committee looks for reasons to justify excluding non-P5 teams. The fact that we have 0 wins vs. top teams gives them easy justification for leaving us out.

dyedblue · Post by **dyedblue** » December 31st, 2018, 10:22 am

We are not a tournament team at this point. Sorry, we just aren't. If we go through conference with two or less losses and beat Nevada at least once, we might have an outside shot. This team is no where near as good as our 25-3 top 25 team and we didn't get a sniff. Things have gotten more snotty since then.

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ineptimusprime · Post by **ineptimusprime** » December 31st, 2018, 11:38 am

dyedblue wrote: ↑
December 31st, 2018, 10:22 am
We are not a tournament team at this point. Sorry, we just aren't. If we go through conference with two or less losses and beat Nevada at least once, we might have an outside shot. This team is no where near as good as our 25-3 top 25 team and we didn't get a sniff. Things have gotten more snotty since then.

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I think it's going to take: (1) beating Nevada once and avoiding bad losses (a bad loss is anything but losses to NV, @ SDSU, or @ Fresno); or (2) winning the conference tournament (which would likely require beating Nevada).

USUBlue · Post by **USUBlue** » December 31st, 2018, 4:40 pm

dyedblue wrote: ↑
December 31st, 2018, 10:22 am
We are not a tournament team at this point. Sorry, we just aren't. If we go through conference with two or less losses and beat Nevada at least once, we might have an outside shot. This team is no where near as good as our 25-3 top 25 team and we didn't get a sniff. Things have gotten more snotty since then.

Exactly

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BobWilson · Post by **BobWilson** » January 2nd, 2019, 11:15 pm

On third thought, I'll say 10-8, ugh notwithstanding the urine-poor conference.

ineptimusprime · Post by **ineptimusprime** » January 2nd, 2019, 11:36 pm

Sticking with my 14-4 prediction, which I’ll note is LESS optimistic than ESPN’s BPI (we are dogs only against Nevada and at Fresno).

NVAggie · Post by **NVAggie** » January 2nd, 2019, 11:45 pm

12-6 for me.

utaggies · Post by **utaggies** » January 13th, 2019, 6:41 pm

The fortune of the Aggies are like the volatility of the stock market right now. Up one day and down the next. I was in buy-mode a couple of weeks ago (I initially predicted 11-7 and bumped it to 12-6). I now am in a bit of a sell-mode. I suspect some who picked us to win 13 or 14 games are seemingly thinking they over-shot the mark given the difficulty it will be to win on the road at BSU, UNLV, NM, CSU, FSU and SDS. Likely there are 3 losses right there with a likely loss to Nevada at home. That would being our ceiling to 12-6.

So have at it. What is you current temperature about the Aggies 4 games into the conference with a 2-2 record that we hoped would at least be 3-1. Do you stand on your prediction. “Buy” (up your prediction) or “sell” (lower your prediction. I’m selling and going back to my original 11-7 mark, and even that may be a bit optimistic.

Aggie formerly in Hawaii · Post by **Aggie formerly in Hawaii** » January 13th, 2019, 8:07 pm

NVAggie wrote: ↑
January 2nd, 2019, 11:45 pm
12-6 for me.

I'd take 12-6.

sam tingey · Post by **sam tingey** » January 14th, 2019, 8:48 am

GUS · Post by **GUS** » January 15th, 2019, 2:48 am

With the post season drought that we've had, I'd be very happy with the NIT this year. Not convinced that will happen.

LKGates · Post by **LKGates** » January 15th, 2019, 9:50 am

GUS wrote: ↑
January 15th, 2019, 2:48 am
With the post season drought that we've had, I'd be very happy with the NIT this year. Not convinced that will happen.

I almost think I'd rather go to the NIT and make a deep run than be the last in / first out in the NCAA. I think it might actually be a better morale builder for the team.

nswaggie · Post by **nswaggie** » January 15th, 2019, 10:22 am

LKGates wrote: ↑
January 15th, 2019, 9:50 am

GUS wrote: ↑
January 15th, 2019, 2:48 am
With the post season drought that we've had, I'd be very happy with the NIT this year. Not convinced that will happen.
I almost think I'd rather go to the NIT and make a deep run than be the last in / first out in the NCAA. I think it might actually be a better morale builder for the team.

Not me I’ll take NCAA tournament every time, and if we were one of the last four in we would play another 11 or 12 seed. IMO we would have just as good a chance to win a 12 vs 12 game as what would likely be a road NIT game. A lot more name recognition come with just an appearance in the NCAA even if you lose.

scotlandog · Post by **scotlandog** » February 6th, 2019, 10:47 pm

Bump

It’s fun to go back and look at these predictions.

We could beat even the most optimistic predictions before the conference season started. My personal projection I had the Fresno games swapped and is losing to @SDSU and Nevada x2. I think we beat SDSU now and I think we have a pretty legit shot at beating Nevada.

I’ll say 15-3 now with 16-2 not out of the question.

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utaggies · Post by **utaggies** » February 6th, 2019, 11:39 pm

Our best conference record in our 5 previous years in the MWC has been 11-7 (4th place) during Stew’s second (and last) season. If we finish 14-4 this year our overall conference record over 6 years will the 54-54.

In comparion, in our 8 years in the WAC we were 58 games over .500 and in our 12 years in the Big West we were 98 games over .500.

QuackAttackAggie · Post by **QuackAttackAggie** » February 7th, 2019, 6:06 am

My prediction looking better every day

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MetsJetsAggies · Post by **MetsJetsAggies** » March 6th, 2019, 12:52 am

15-3 it is!

NVAggie · Post by **NVAggie** » March 6th, 2019, 5:58 am

I was way off and I love it.

sam tingey · Post by **sam tingey** » March 6th, 2019, 6:24 am

Sooooo glad to be completely incorrect. My knowledge of basketball sucks and I am an idiot. This team is awesome. I will not doubt Sam ever to pull us to the win.

utaggies · Post by **utaggies** » March 6th, 2019, 9:17 am

If there is some solace for those that were far off in their predictions for this team, I’ll share with you a statement in an email I received this morning from TeamRankings. Mind you, these guys make a living predicting the outcome of games/teams:

“Utah St. beat the pants off our preseason projection of 8 Mountain West wins.”

So we beat TeamRankings predictions for our conference wins by 7 wins! That is unimaginable.

They give us an 82% chance to make the NCAA tourney. I believe we’ll be up to about 90% with a win in the quarterfinal game. Only a fluke, e.g., some other team besides USU or Nevada wins the conference tourney, accounts for that other 18%.

Go Aggies!

ineptimusprime · Post by **ineptimusprime** » March 6th, 2019, 9:30 am

Moral of the story = trust ESPN BPI. I think that metric nailed our football and basketball seasons.

NVAggie · Post by **NVAggie** » March 6th, 2019, 9:47 am

Dang, I hate anything that ESPN does. Now you are saying I have to trust something from them.

MetsJetsAggies · Post by **MetsJetsAggies** » March 6th, 2019, 11:29 am

ineptimusprime wrote: ↑
March 6th, 2019, 9:30 am
Moral of the story = trust ESPN BPI. I think that metric nailed our football and basketball seasons.

Could replace BPI with any good measure/metric like Kenpom, Sagarin, etc. Too

NVAggie · Post by **NVAggie** » March 6th, 2019, 11:30 am

Are we talking about their prediction right before the games or the preseason predictions?

SLB · Post by **SLB** » March 6th, 2019, 12:28 pm

I remember saying something like 16-2 with at worst 14-4.
I guess that I kinda have predicted the end result of the in-conference play.

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