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S&P+ Rankings Released
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S&P+ Rankings Released
Bill Connelly has released his 2019 pre-season S&P+ rankings, linked here: https://www.sbnation.com/college-footba ... rojections
Here is how our schedule stacks up, sorted by ranking:
#4 LSU
#24 Boise State
#42 UTAH STATE
#50 BYU
#51 Fresno State
#54 San Diego State
#62 Wake Forest
#83 Nevada
#90 Air Force
#92 Wyoming
#109 Colorado State
#115 New Mexico
Unranked - Stony Brook
Three observations:
1. We are, as of this moment, better than most of our competition based on what is perhaps the best analytics system in college football.
2. The schedule is much tougher this year, despite our division rivals' attempts to weaken it. I mean goodness gracious CSU.
3. If you don't buy season tickets this year you are officially a weenie.
Here is how our schedule stacks up, sorted by ranking:
#4 LSU
#24 Boise State
#42 UTAH STATE
#50 BYU
#51 Fresno State
#54 San Diego State
#62 Wake Forest
#83 Nevada
#90 Air Force
#92 Wyoming
#109 Colorado State
#115 New Mexico
Unranked - Stony Brook
Three observations:
1. We are, as of this moment, better than most of our competition based on what is perhaps the best analytics system in college football.
2. The schedule is much tougher this year, despite our division rivals' attempts to weaken it. I mean goodness gracious CSU.
3. If you don't buy season tickets this year you are officially a weenie.
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- ChicAggie
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Re: S&P+ Rankings Released
Interesting, but I question how accurate even "the best analytics system in college football" can be at this stage of the year. When I say "question," that's all I really mean: does S&P+ have a strong track record of being accurate when projecting an upcoming college football season in early February? Seems unlikely, but who knows?YoungBloodAggie wrote: ↑February 11th, 2019, 1:32 pmWe are, as of this moment, better than most of our competition based on what is perhaps the best analytics system in college football.
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Re: S&P+ Rankings Released
It stinks to have a 100% drop from our place at 21 in the final 2018 S&P (https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa) to 42 now.
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Re: S&P+ Rankings Released
Does this system adjust for recruiting ranking issues like the ones we deal with at USU?
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Re: S&P+ Rankings Released
What are the ranking issues we face at USU?
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Re: S&P+ Rankings Released
Ask aggie22 about this. Having mission kids affects our recruiting numbers.
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Re: S&P+ Rankings Released
You can read about Connelly's system at SBNation, but I would say that he is not adjusting for kids that are not going to be here next year. He uses a five-year weighted average. You can see from the link that our recruiting success is actually what is pulling us down most in the rankings. So, if you believe like I do that we actually outperform our recruiting rankings...we are actually undervalued at 42.
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Re: S&P+ Rankings Released
I am disappointed in our drop, but man, look at how far Fresno State has fallen. They are ranked after BYU!
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Re: S&P+ Rankings Released
I wasn't sure, so I took a look at previous preseason vs final rankings:ChicAggie wrote: ↑February 11th, 2019, 1:54 pmInteresting, but I question how accurate even "the best analytics system in college football" can be at this stage of the year. When I say "question," that's all I really mean: does S&P+ have a strong track record of being accurate when projecting an upcoming college football season in early February? Seems unlikely, but who knows?YoungBloodAggie wrote: ↑February 11th, 2019, 1:32 pmWe are, as of this moment, better than most of our competition based on what is perhaps the best analytics system in college football.
Year - Pre-season -> Final
2018 - 77 -> 21
2017 - 73 -> 83
2016 - 73 -> 86
2015 - 59 -> 76
2014 - 69 -> 52
This is just a few years, and it's just us, but I'd say that pre-season rankings can be a bit off at times. Only time will tell.
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Re: S&P+ Rankings Released
I guess that is my point in all of this. I read the details of his rating system. I would doubt that his rating takes the mission kids into account. We are probably undervalued as you indicated.YoungBloodAggie wrote: ↑February 11th, 2019, 2:23 pmYou can read about Connelly's system at SBNation, but I would say that he is not adjusting for kids that are not going to be here next year. He uses a five-year weighted average. You can see from the link that our recruiting success is actually what is pulling us down most in the rankings. So, if you believe like I do that we actually outperform our recruiting rankings...we are actually undervalued at 42.
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Re: S&P+ Rankings Released
Will Vegas take bets on actual performance versus S&P+ predictive rankings? I'd put $1,000 on the Aggies being better than #42 at the end of the 2019-20 season. Granted, the tougher schedule could knock us down a peg, but I like our chances.
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Re: S&P+ Rankings Released
Even if we are "undervalued," the predictive rankings still suggest we will be favored in 10 games and a dog in only 2. So we should finish 10-2. Not too shabby.
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Re: S&P+ Rankings Released
It would likely have us 9-3. The ranking is based on your expected margin of victory over a perfectly average team.
Boise is +12.6
USU is +7.6
BYU-P is +5.7
Fresno State is +5.5
SDSU is +4.9
Wake is +3.1
The home team is spotted +2.5 in a game.
So Boise would be +2.5 at USU
We would be +4.4 against BYU-P
Frenso would be +0.4 against us
We would be +0.2 at SDSU
We would be +2.1 at Wake Forest
Boise is +12.6
USU is +7.6
BYU-P is +5.7
Fresno State is +5.5
SDSU is +4.9
Wake is +3.1
The home team is spotted +2.5 in a game.
So Boise would be +2.5 at USU
We would be +4.4 against BYU-P
Frenso would be +0.4 against us
We would be +0.2 at SDSU
We would be +2.1 at Wake Forest
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Re: S&P+ Rankings Released
For those unfamiliar with how Connelly conducts his business, he will have an update of these rankings at the end of the summer to reflect additional movements to team rosters. He has also historically tweaked his ratings to try to align more closely with predictive variables, so there may be some slight changes to the formula.
At any rate, #42 is a pretty darn good place to be considering that our recruiting rankings often do not reflect the quality of player that we get into the program.
At any rate, #42 is a pretty darn good place to be considering that our recruiting rankings often do not reflect the quality of player that we get into the program.
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Re: S&P+ Rankings Released
Maybe this has been asked but why are we @ SDSU again? Last time we played them wasn’t it @ their place. Have they come to Logan since we’ve been in MWC??
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Re: S&P+ Rankings Released
Yes, and we don't talk about it.SpectrumMagic wrote: ↑February 11th, 2019, 8:22 pmMaybe this has been asked but why are we @ SDSU again? Last time we played them wasn’t it @ their place. Have they come to Logan since we’ve been in MWC??
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Re: S&P+ Rankings Released
Hmm interesting scheduling. Also @ Fresno again wasn’t the last time they were in Logan when Riley Nelson was QB? So I would expect MW to have both these schools to not get return trips for 6 years or more?YoungBloodAggie wrote: ↑February 11th, 2019, 8:40 pmYes, and we don't talk about it.SpectrumMagic wrote: ↑February 11th, 2019, 8:22 pmMaybe this has been asked but why are we @ SDSU again? Last time we played them wasn’t it @ their place. Have they come to Logan since we’ve been in MWC??
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Re: S&P+ Rankings Released
sdsu and fsu were both in logan just two seasons ago.SpectrumMagic wrote: ↑February 11th, 2019, 9:26 pmHmm interesting scheduling. Also @ Fresno again wasn’t the last time they were in Logan when Riley Nelson was QB? So I would expect MW to have both these schools to not get return trips for 6 years or more?YoungBloodAggie wrote: ↑February 11th, 2019, 8:40 pmYes, and we don't talk about it.SpectrumMagic wrote: ↑February 11th, 2019, 8:22 pmMaybe this has been asked but why are we @ SDSU again? Last time we played them wasn’t it @ their place. Have they come to Logan since we’ve been in MWC??
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Re: S&P+ Rankings Released
My bad guess I missed thatQuackAttackAggie wrote: ↑February 11th, 2019, 10:27 pmsdsu and fsu were both in logan just two seasons ago.SpectrumMagic wrote: ↑February 11th, 2019, 9:26 pmHmm interesting scheduling. Also @ Fresno again wasn’t the last time they were in Logan when Riley Nelson was QB? So I would expect MW to have both these schools to not get return trips for 6 years or more?YoungBloodAggie wrote: ↑February 11th, 2019, 8:40 pmYes, and we don't talk about it.SpectrumMagic wrote: ↑February 11th, 2019, 8:22 pmMaybe this has been asked but why are we @ SDSU again? Last time we played them wasn’t it @ their place. Have they come to Logan since we’ve been in MWC??
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Re: S&P+ Rankings Released
I’m still trying to dry out....YoungBloodAggie wrote:Yes, and we don't talk about it.SpectrumMagic wrote: ↑February 11th, 2019, 8:22 pmMaybe this has been asked but why are we @ SDSU again? Last time we played them wasn’t it @ their place. Have they come to Logan since we’ve been in MWC??
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Re: S&P+ Rankings Released
Yeah. I distinctly remember Donnel Pumphrey yelling "They can't stop me! They can't stop me!" from the sidelines.SpectrumMagic wrote: ↑February 11th, 2019, 10:41 pmMy bad guess I missed thatQuackAttackAggie wrote: ↑February 11th, 2019, 10:27 pmsdsu and fsu were both in logan just two seasons ago.SpectrumMagic wrote: ↑February 11th, 2019, 9:26 pmHmm interesting scheduling. Also @ Fresno again wasn’t the last time they were in Logan when Riley Nelson was QB? So I would expect MW to have both these schools to not get return trips for 6 years or more?YoungBloodAggie wrote: ↑February 11th, 2019, 8:40 pmYes, and we don't talk about it.SpectrumMagic wrote: ↑February 11th, 2019, 8:22 pmMaybe this has been asked but why are we @ SDSU again? Last time we played them wasn’t it @ their place. Have they come to Logan since we’ve been in MWC??
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Re: S&P+ Rankings Released
That's the most I've ever seen it rain continuously in Logan.WAaggieFan wrote: ↑February 12th, 2019, 7:39 amI’m still trying to dry out....YoungBloodAggie wrote:Yes, and we don't talk about it.SpectrumMagic wrote: ↑February 11th, 2019, 8:22 pmMaybe this has been asked but why are we @ SDSU again? Last time we played them wasn’t it @ their place. Have they come to Logan since we’ve been in MWC??
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Re: S&P+ Rankings Released
The Hawaii game around 2010 was the worst game I ever went to as far as amount. It could have been that the person with my poncho was running late and made it to the stadium shortly after the second half was underway. Well after I was soaked and frozen.Madmartigan wrote:That's the most I've ever seen it rain continuously in Logan.
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Re: S&P+ Rankings Released
We just rotate through half of the Pacific Division every two years (one home game and one road game for each team, then rotate to the other half of the teams and repeat).SpectrumMagic wrote: ↑February 11th, 2019, 10:41 pmMy bad guess I missed thatQuackAttackAggie wrote: ↑February 11th, 2019, 10:27 pmsdsu and fsu were both in logan just two seasons ago.SpectrumMagic wrote: ↑February 11th, 2019, 9:26 pmHmm interesting scheduling. Also @ Fresno again wasn’t the last time they were in Logan when Riley Nelson was QB? So I would expect MW to have both these schools to not get return trips for 6 years or more?YoungBloodAggie wrote: ↑February 11th, 2019, 8:40 pmYes, and we don't talk about it.SpectrumMagic wrote: ↑February 11th, 2019, 8:22 pmMaybe this has been asked but why are we @ SDSU again? Last time we played them wasn’t it @ their place. Have they come to Logan since we’ve been in MWC??
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Re: S&P+ Rankings Released
I thought he meant that game drove him to drink, and he still hasn't recovered.Madmartigan wrote: ↑February 12th, 2019, 9:13 amThat's the most I've ever seen it rain continuously in Logan.WAaggieFan wrote: ↑February 12th, 2019, 7:39 amI’m still trying to dry out....YoungBloodAggie wrote:Yes, and we don't talk about it.SpectrumMagic wrote: ↑February 11th, 2019, 8:22 pmMaybe this has been asked but why are we @ SDSU again? Last time we played them wasn’t it @ their place. Have they come to Logan since we’ve been in MWC??
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