ESPN FPI has USU a lot lower than I would have expected

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ESPN FPI has USU a lot lower than I would have expected

Post by jpswensen » July 8th, 2019, 11:24 am

http://www.espn.com/college-football/st ... eamratings

We dropped from 23 at the end of last season to 83 at the start of this season. I realize we lost a lot of talent and coach, but this seems drastic. I start reading stuff like this and get anxious about the upcoming season, wondering if last year was lightning in a bottle and we we revert back to .500 seasons and barely getting to bowls. That is still infinitely better than Brent Guy years, and really really hope Andersen can keep last year's success going. Having a player like Love won't hurt.

BSU dropped from 29 at the end of last season to 42 at the start of this season.

AF, SDSU, and Fresno all leapfrogged us (not by much)

BYU rose from 60 at the end of last season to 44 at the start of the this season.

Of course, ESPN touts how accurate FPI has been at predicting wins, taking into account that it does update as the season goes on.


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Re: ESPN FPI has USU a lot lower than I would have expected

Post by USU78 » July 8th, 2019, 11:26 am

FPI is a tautology. Another species of "Hats in the Mall/on Amazon."


You keep using that word. I do not think that word means what you think it means.

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Re: ESPN FPI has USU a lot lower than I would have expected

Post by YoungBloodAggie » July 8th, 2019, 11:28 am

ESPN now has access to a real ratings system (S&P+) that should put FPI out of its misery in the next few years.
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Re: ESPN FPI has USU a lot lower than I would have expected

Post by ineptimusprime » July 8th, 2019, 12:32 pm

I'm really worried about the OL and WR position groups, the fact that retread coaches historically don't do great on their second stints, and the increased strength of schedule. I think 6-6 or 7-5 is probably about right for this season, unfortunately. Prove me wrong, Aggies! We'll know soon enough what we've got.



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Re: ESPN FPI has USU a lot lower than I would have expected

Post by aceofspadeskb » July 8th, 2019, 12:55 pm

ineptimusprime wrote:
July 8th, 2019, 12:32 pm
I'm really worried about the OL and WR position groups, the fact that retread coaches historically don't do great on their second stints, and the increased strength of schedule. I think 6-6 or 7-5 is probably about right for this season, unfortunately. Prove me wrong, Aggies! We'll know soon enough what we've got.
Agree 100%. More worried about the OL than WR. Give Love time to find the open guy and we'll be fine. I need to see it happen first. 7-5 this year and I'm happy. At the same time I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest to see us go 10-2.



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Re: ESPN FPI has USU a lot lower than I would have expected

Post by Smokin Joe » July 8th, 2019, 1:22 pm

GA and Woods worked out all the O-linemen in the program soon after they got settled. After doing so they made the determination we did not need to recruit any JC o-linemen to win. That should be good enough for anyone. Yes, we're breaking in some new guys, but apparently we have talent.
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Re: ESPN FPI has USU a lot lower than I would have expected

Post by aggies22 » July 8th, 2019, 1:50 pm

Smokin Joe wrote:
July 8th, 2019, 1:22 pm
GA and Woods worked out all the O-linemen in the program soon after they got settled. After doing so they made the determination we did not need to recruit any JC o-linemen to win. That should be good enough for anyone. Yes, we're breaking in some new guys, but apparently we have talent.
Most if not all of the offensive linemen that we signed in the last two recruiting cycles would have started for us as true freshmen 10+ years ago.



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Re: ESPN FPI has USU a lot lower than I would have expected

Post by mcaggie1 » July 8th, 2019, 3:07 pm

aggies22 wrote:
July 8th, 2019, 1:50 pm
Smokin Joe wrote:
July 8th, 2019, 1:22 pm
GA and Woods worked out all the O-linemen in the program soon after they got settled. After doing so they made the determination we did not need to recruit any JC o-linemen to win. That should be good enough for anyone. Yes, we're breaking in some new guys, but apparently we have talent.
Most if not all of the offensive linemen that we signed in the last two recruiting cycles would have started for us as true freshmen 10+ years ago.

I maybe wrong, but I don’t think so......in saying that we have one of the best o lineman (Edwards) coming back that we have ever had. And also that we have 4 or 5 more that played a lot last year. They just didn’t start over the Seniors. They are very good. I am only worried about depth in a few positions.



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Re: ESPN FPI has USU a lot lower than I would have expected

Post by aggies22 » July 8th, 2019, 3:24 pm

mcaggie1 wrote:
July 8th, 2019, 3:07 pm
aggies22 wrote:
July 8th, 2019, 1:50 pm
Smokin Joe wrote:
July 8th, 2019, 1:22 pm
GA and Woods worked out all the O-linemen in the program soon after they got settled. After doing so they made the determination we did not need to recruit any JC o-linemen to win. That should be good enough for anyone. Yes, we're breaking in some new guys, but apparently we have talent.
Most if not all of the offensive linemen that we signed in the last two recruiting cycles would have started for us as true freshmen 10+ years ago.

I maybe wrong, but I don’t think so......in saying that we have one of the best o lineman (Edwards) coming back that we have ever had. And also that we have 4 or 5 more that played a lot last year. They just didn’t start over the Seniors. They are very good. I am only worried about depth in a few positions.
I think I get what you are saying? I'm not talking about the recent freshmen starting over the guys we have now or have had play here recently. I'm talking about guys like South, Koch, and Hunter Hill, etc. who would have started here 10+ years ago. It's a testament to the improvement in the type of players that we are not only recruiting but actually signing. Al Edwards would be one of those guys that would have started as a true freshman 10+ years ago.



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Re: ESPN FPI has USU a lot lower than I would have expected

Post by Aglicious » July 8th, 2019, 3:27 pm

Now the DN has an article out on this: (article link)
Utah State, fresh off an 11-2 season that saw the Aggies finish the year ranked No. 22 in the final Associated Press poll, ranks No. 83 with an FPI rating of minus-4.7. Part of the drop for USU could be in part that the Aggies are the only one of the three local schools with a new head coach, as Gary Andersen replaces Matt Wells, who left to coach Texas Tech.

The Aggies are favored in five games:

Aug. 30, at Wake Forest, 23.9%
Sept. 7, vs. Stony Brook, 91.3%
Sept. 21, at San Diego State, 41.3%
Sept. 28, vs. Colorado State, 70.6%
Oct. 5, at LSU, 2.1%
Oct. 19, vs. Nevada, 73.2%
Oct. 26, at Air Force, 32.4%
Nov. 2, vs. BYU, 25.5%
Nov. 9, at Fresno State, 33.8%
Nov. 16, vs. Wyoming 66.2%
Nov. 23, vs. Boise State, 27.9%
Nov. 30, at New Mexico, 63.3%
:puke: supposedly we stand a better chance at home against BSU than BYU?

The bigger slap is that the Aggies are only favored in 5 games. This rating system reminds me of the idiotic Lunardi bracketology system. He touts how "accurate" he has been over the years yet updates his predictions every week based on the actual results and standings - as if that takes any measure of knowledge or insider information. His preseason bracket should be held up as the standard to measure how great he is at "predicting" the NCAA tourney field, not the final one he releases just hours before selection Sunday after the season and conference tourneys have been played.



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Re: ESPN FPI has USU a lot lower than I would have expected

Post by ineptimusprime » July 8th, 2019, 4:44 pm

The ones I really disagree with are being dogs at home to BYU and at AFA. I see us as favorites in those two (perhaps heavy favorites). The rest seem about right, IMO, which should put us right at 7-5 if we win the ones I think we should and lose the ones I expect us to lose.

I think the defense will be better than last year, the passing game significantly worse (Nathan is about the only WR we have that I trust to be good; unless Scarver really steps up and the new guys are significantly better than I suspect they will be, I just don't see how we can expect to be anywhere near as good as we were last year with Tarver, Greene, and Vaughns), and the running game about the same unless the OL is bad (I think Warren and Burt can replace Thompson's contributions).
Last edited by ineptimusprime on July 8th, 2019, 4:53 pm, edited 2 times in total.



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Re: ESPN FPI has USU a lot lower than I would have expected

Post by jpswensen » July 8th, 2019, 4:51 pm

Aglicious wrote:
July 8th, 2019, 3:27 pm
Now the DN has an article out on this: (article link)
Utah State, fresh off an 11-2 season that saw the Aggies finish the year ranked No. 22 in the final Associated Press poll, ranks No. 83 with an FPI rating of minus-4.7. Part of the drop for USU could be in part that the Aggies are the only one of the three local schools with a new head coach, as Gary Andersen replaces Matt Wells, who left to coach Texas Tech.

The Aggies are favored in five games:

Aug. 30, at Wake Forest, 23.9%
Sept. 7, vs. Stony Brook, 91.3%
Sept. 21, at San Diego State, 41.3%
Sept. 28, vs. Colorado State, 70.6%
Oct. 5, at LSU, 2.1%
Oct. 19, vs. Nevada, 73.2%
Oct. 26, at Air Force, 32.4%
Nov. 2, vs. BYU, 25.5%
Nov. 9, at Fresno State, 33.8%
Nov. 16, vs. Wyoming 66.2%
Nov. 23, vs. Boise State, 27.9%
Nov. 30, at New Mexico, 63.3%
:puke: supposedly we stand a better chance at home against BSU than BYU?

The bigger slap is that the Aggies are only favored in 5 games. This rating system reminds me of the idiotic Lunardi bracketology system. He touts how "accurate" he has been over the years yet updates his predictions every week based on the actual results and standings - as if that takes any measure of knowledge or insider information. His preseason bracket should be held up as the standard to measure how great he is at "predicting" the NCAA tourney field, not the final one he releases just hours before selection Sunday after the season and conference tourneys have been played.
I am really surprised by the difference in projected wins and percentages between the FPI and the S&P+.

The S&P+ has us with 7 wins over 60% and another 3 in the 49-54% range.

The FPI has those 5 over 60% and none of the rest even sniffing 45%.

I wonder how much of the "hats in the mall" affects the start of the season effects in the FPI, as some have suggested.


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Re: ESPN FPI has USU a lot lower than I would have expected

Post by aggies22 » July 8th, 2019, 5:19 pm

Fresno State is being predicted to be better than they will be.



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Re: ESPN FPI has USU a lot lower than I would have expected

Post by ViAggie » July 8th, 2019, 6:17 pm

Why is AFA predicted to be so good? I mean, they did okay last year, did they recruit some stellar talent that we're not aware of?


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Re: ESPN FPI has USU a lot lower than I would have expected

Post by USU78 » July 8th, 2019, 6:23 pm

ViAggie wrote:
July 8th, 2019, 6:17 pm
Why is AFA predicted to be so good? I mean, they did okay last year, did they recruit some stellar talent that we're not aware of?
Losing their stud fullback is gonna hurt bad.


You keep using that word. I do not think that word means what you think it means.

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Re: ESPN FPI has USU a lot lower than I would have expected

Post by NavyBlueAggie » July 8th, 2019, 6:54 pm

Utah State played a good number of underclassmen last season due to the number of wins we enjoyed. Playing a goodly number of young "O" linemen last year gave them a season to improve and gauge their strengths and weaknesses way beyond just practice time. I believe we will surprise some folks with the abilities along our offensive line.



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Re: ESPN FPI has USU a lot lower than I would have expected

Post by Full » July 8th, 2019, 9:33 pm

NavyBlueAggie wrote:Utah State played a good number of underclassmen last season due to the number of wins we enjoyed. Playing a goodly number of young "O" linemen last year gave them a season to improve and gauge their strengths and weaknesses way beyond just practice time. I believe we will surprise some folks with the abilities along our offensive line.
I agree with this take. Last time our line was underestimated with TJ Woods and GA, they outplayed Auburn. I expect the line to play like that against Wake Forest.



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Re: ESPN FPI has USU a lot lower than I would have expected

Post by utaggies » July 8th, 2019, 11:21 pm

I’d take an 8-4 record in a heartbeat. A couple of the commenters on the D-News article stated that anything less than 10 wins for the Aggies would be a disappointment. :crazy:



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Re: ESPN FPI has USU a lot lower than I would have expected

Post by AGGIEinIOWA » July 9th, 2019, 12:48 am

I agree. I think 7 wins is a fair line for regular season wins set by an unbiased outsider. I’d be pleased as punch to get 8 wins with our schedule, but wouldn’t be too surprised to win 9. I’d be shocked if we get double digit wins.



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Re: ESPN FPI has USU a lot lower than I would have expected

Post by NVAggie » July 9th, 2019, 7:47 am

utaggies wrote:
July 8th, 2019, 11:21 pm
I’d take an 8-4 record in a heartbeat. A couple of the commenters on the D-News article stated that anything less than 10 wins for the Aggies would be a disappointment. :crazy:
Remember, those are the same people doing the 60 in 60 rankings. We don't have much talent, but we must win 10 games.

Makes sense to me.



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Re: ESPN FPI has USU a lot lower than I would have expected

Post by mcaggie1 » July 9th, 2019, 9:21 am

aggies22 wrote:
July 8th, 2019, 3:24 pm
mcaggie1 wrote:
July 8th, 2019, 3:07 pm
aggies22 wrote:
July 8th, 2019, 1:50 pm
Smokin Joe wrote:
July 8th, 2019, 1:22 pm
GA and Woods worked out all the O-linemen in the program soon after they got settled. After doing so they made the determination we did not need to recruit any JC o-linemen to win. That should be good enough for anyone. Yes, we're breaking in some new guys, but apparently we have talent.
Most if not all of the offensive linemen that we signed in the last two recruiting cycles would have started for us as true freshmen 10+ years ago.

I maybe wrong, but I don’t think so......in saying that we have one of the best o lineman (Edwards) coming back that we have ever had. And also that we have 4 or 5 more that played a lot last year. They just didn’t start over the Seniors. They are very good. I am only worried about depth in a few positions.
I think I get what you are saying? I'm not talking about the recent freshmen starting over the guys we have now or have had play here recently. I'm talking about guys like South, Koch, and Hunter Hill, etc. who would have started here 10+ years ago. It's a testament to the improvement in the type of players that we are not only recruiting but actually signing. Al Edwards would be one of those guys that would have started as a true freshman 10+ years ago.
That is exactly what I was saying..



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Re: ESPN FPI has USU a lot lower than I would have expected

Post by AggieUprising50 » July 9th, 2019, 9:23 am

Looks like ESPN doesn’t think highly of the GA hire.

My thoughts:
-AFA and byu predictions are a joke
-Fresno is way overrated. They lost more than we did.
-If the defense and O-line play well, we have a very good shot at 10 wins.
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Re: ESPN FPI has USU a lot lower than I would have expected

Post by hickaggie » July 9th, 2019, 4:39 pm

Aglicious wrote:
July 8th, 2019, 3:27 pm
Now the DN has an article out on this: (article link)
Utah State, fresh off an 11-2 season that saw the Aggies finish the year ranked No. 22 in the final Associated Press poll, ranks No. 83 with an FPI rating of minus-4.7. Part of the drop for USU could be in part that the Aggies are the only one of the three local schools with a new head coach, as Gary Andersen replaces Matt Wells, who left to coach Texas Tech.

The Aggies are favored in five games:

Aug. 30, at Wake Forest, 23.9%
Sept. 7, vs. Stony Brook, 91.3%
Sept. 21, at San Diego State, 41.3%
Sept. 28, vs. Colorado State, 70.6%
Oct. 5, at LSU, 2.1%
Oct. 19, vs. Nevada, 73.2%
Oct. 26, at Air Force, 32.4%
Nov. 2, vs. BYU, 25.5%
Nov. 9, at Fresno State, 33.8%
Nov. 16, vs. Wyoming 66.2%
Nov. 23, vs. Boise State, 27.9%
Nov. 30, at New Mexico, 63.3%
:puke: supposedly we stand a better chance at home against BSU than BYU?

The bigger slap is that the Aggies are only favored in 5 games. This rating system reminds me of the idiotic Lunardi bracketology system. He touts how "accurate" he has been over the years yet updates his predictions every week based on the actual results and standings - as if that takes any measure of knowledge or insider information. His preseason bracket should be held up as the standard to measure how great he is at "predicting" the NCAA tourney field, not the final one he releases just hours before selection Sunday after the season and conference tourneys have been played.
I haven't checked on what other preseason mathematical formulas there are to compare but this seems to be a pretty outlandish outlier. You could add about 15% to every one of those except LSU and be pretty accurate. The Zoob and AFA predictions are simply laughable and should have at least 35% tacked on. In the Zoobs case it should be reversed to 75% for the Aggies.

Wake and SDSU should be toss ups. LSU is a loss. Fresno gets an edge for the home team. Boise-slight edge to the Donks.



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Re: ESPN FPI has USU a lot lower than I would have expected

Post by MWCFAN12 » July 9th, 2019, 5:07 pm

Aglicious wrote:
July 8th, 2019, 3:27 pm
Now the DN has an article out on this: (article link)
Utah State, fresh off an 11-2 season that saw the Aggies finish the year ranked No. 22 in the final Associated Press poll, ranks No. 83 with an FPI rating of minus-4.7. Part of the drop for USU could be in part that the Aggies are the only one of the three local schools with a new head coach, as Gary Andersen replaces Matt Wells, who left to coach Texas Tech.

The Aggies are favored in five games:

Aug. 30, at Wake Forest, 23.9%
Sept. 7, vs. Stony Brook, 91.3%
Sept. 21, at San Diego State, 41.3%
Sept. 28, vs. Colorado State, 70.6%
Oct. 5, at LSU, 2.1%
Oct. 19, vs. Nevada, 73.2%
Oct. 26, at Air Force, 32.4%
Nov. 2, vs. BYU, 25.5%
Nov. 9, at Fresno State, 33.8%
Nov. 16, vs. Wyoming 66.2%
Nov. 23, vs. Boise State, 27.9%
Nov. 30, at New Mexico, 63.3%
:puke: supposedly we stand a better chance at home against BSU than BYU?

The bigger slap is that the Aggies are only favored in 5 games. This rating system reminds me of the idiotic Lunardi bracketology system. He touts how "accurate" he has been over the years yet updates his predictions every week based on the actual results and standings - as if that takes any measure of knowledge or insider information. His preseason bracket should be held up as the standard to measure how great he is at "predicting" the NCAA tourney field, not the final one he releases just hours before selection Sunday after the season and conference tourneys have been played.


Betting line
@Wake. +1
SB. -28.5
@SDSU. -11
CSU. -22.5
@LSU. +16.5
Reno. -11
@AF. -7
BYU. -7.5
@Fresno. +6.5
Wyo. -10.5
Boise. Pk
@NM. -17


Vegas is in the business of getting it right. Current lines btw



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Re: ESPN FPI has USU a lot lower than I would have expected

Post by StanfordAggie » July 9th, 2019, 9:42 pm

jpswensen wrote:
July 8th, 2019, 4:51 pm
I am really surprised by the difference in projected wins and percentages between the FPI and the S&P+.

The S&P+ has us with 7 wins over 60% and another 3 in the 49-54% range.

The FPI has those 5 over 60% and none of the rest even sniffing 45%.

I wonder how much of the "hats in the mall" affects the start of the season effects in the FPI, as some have suggested.
It's not the "hats in the mall" effect. At least not directly. I remember reading an article where Nate Silver (who designed this ranking system) described how he calculated the preseason FPI rankings. As I recall, it's a function of a team's record and recruiting class rankings over the past several seasons (with the more recent seasons weighted more heavily) as well as the number of returning starters/two-deep players. A team that has a coaching change is also penalized in these rankings. But it's strictly quantitative; it doesn't pay any attention to "hats in the mall." That said, the "hats in the mall" effect may play some role since recruiting rankings effect the preseason FPI rankings. Many of our recruits are never evaluated by the recruiting services, and the recruiting rankings generally don't account for missionaries and a few things like that. So our recruiting ranking may be a bit lower than reality. But the FPI isn't directly penalizing us just because we play in a non-P5 league.



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Re: ESPN FPI has USU a lot lower than I would have expected

Post by Olderthandirt » July 10th, 2019, 3:14 am

I think Mariner plays great at receiver, and the oline will be full speed in a few games. The thing that ESPN doesn't mention is that we have one of the best quarterbacks in the West. As Scotty said today, "The High Tide (Love) will raise all boats." I like our chances for 8+.



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Re: ESPN FPI has USU a lot lower than I would have expected

Post by hickaggie » July 11th, 2019, 4:30 pm

Olderthandirt wrote:
July 10th, 2019, 3:14 am
I think Mariner plays great at receiver, and the oline will be full speed in a few games. The thing that ESPN doesn't mention is that we have one of the best quarterbacks in the West. As Scotty said today, "The High Tide (Love) will raise all boats." I like our chances for 8+.
Spot on. I think the Vegas lines seem like a fair early season predictor. I know the Aggies lost Yost but Sanford is no slouch, and Mariner and the new receivers have never played with a guy who places the ball quickly where only they can catch it like Love. The secondary is probably the biggest question mark but the front 7 are gonna raise hell with Woodward and Tipa given us a lot of pick attempts like last year and I don't anticipate anyone other than LSU, SDSU, or Boise is going anywhere on the ground against this 4-3 front. Air Force but they don't have the horses to keep up with the Aggie O.

The Aggies start out with maybe the best left anchor at left tackle they've ever had with NFL skills. That's a lot for a really good O line coach to start with and they have a lot of in game experience. This year could be good.

Then again I'm the guy who said we would roll Tennessee..lol.



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Re: ESPN FPI has USU a lot lower than I would have expected

Post by ineptimusprime » July 11th, 2019, 7:47 pm

hickaggie wrote:
July 11th, 2019, 4:30 pm
Olderthandirt wrote:
July 10th, 2019, 3:14 am
I think Mariner plays great at receiver, and the oline will be full speed in a few games. The thing that ESPN doesn't mention is that we have one of the best quarterbacks in the West. As Scotty said today, "The High Tide (Love) will raise all boats." I like our chances for 8+.
Spot on. I think the Vegas lines seem like a fair early season predictor. I know the Aggies lost Yost but Sanford is no slouch, and Mariner and the new receivers have never played with a guy who places the ball quickly where only they can catch it like Love. The secondary is probably the biggest question mark but the front 7 are gonna raise hell with Woodward and Tipa given us a lot of pick attempts like last year and I don't anticipate anyone other than LSU, SDSU, or Boise is going anywhere on the ground against this 4-3 front. Air Force but they don't have the horses to keep up with the Aggie O.

The Aggies start out with maybe the best left anchor at left tackle they've ever had with NFL skills. That's a lot for a really good O line coach to start with and they have a lot of in game experience. This year could be good.

Then again I'm the guy who said we would roll Tennessee..lol.
I was at that game with a Tennessee buddy from law school. Roll we did... We rolled right over after the opening kickoff. That was when we figured out Chuckie was broken. Tough game.



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