I expect there to be eight bowl-eligible MWC teams this year:

USU
Boise State
Air Force
Wyoming
SDSU
Hawaii
Fresno State
the winner of today’s Nevada-SJSU, which will be 4-2

The MWC has only six bowl tie-ins. There would be seven if a team goes to a NY6 bowl or if a PAC-12 team doesn’t qualify for the Cheez-It Bowl.

I don't thin the SJSU/Nevada winner will be favored in two more games all year, regardless of who wins today. I'd put good money on seven teams hitting bowl eligibility.

Also, Air Force is not a lock by any means. They need three more wins, and have the following schedule:

Fresno State
at Hawaii
Utah State
Army
at New Mexico
at CSU
Wyoming

I'd guess they will lose to Fresno today (they are favored, somehow), and will need to either sweep the last three games of the year or steal one in their next three. I think Hawaii, USU, and Army are all better teams than Chair Force.

Nevada has the easier path to bowl eligibility than SJSU. They just need to beat SJSU, New Mexico and UNLV at home. But their last game was a 51-point loss at home to Hawaii.

I don’t know how anyone loses by 50+ points at home. I don’t think USU has ever had such a loss at home. I haven’t checked, but I’m going to guess that this is the largest FBS home loss this season and this will hold through the rest of the year.

If SJSU wins today (and I think they will), they would still need to pick up two more wins, maybe against UNLV and Fresno State.

dogie wrote: ↑

October 12th, 2019, 11:25 am

I don’t know how anyone loses by 50+ points at home. I don’t think USU has ever had such a loss at home.

USU has 5 such losses.
Lost to BYU by 59 in 1977
Lost to BYU by 54 in 1937
Lost to Hawai'i by 53 in 2006
Lost to Colorado State by 53 in 1916
Lost to Boise State by 52 in 2007

A few of these are very old games but a couple are also recent enough for some of us to remember.

ProvoAggie wrote: ↑

October 12th, 2019, 12:13 pm

dogie wrote: ↑

October 12th, 2019, 11:25 am

I don’t know how anyone loses by 50+ points at home. I don’t think USU has ever had such a loss at home.

USU has 5 such losses.
Lost to BYU by 59 in 1977
Lost to BYU by 54 in 1937
Lost to Hawai'i by 53 in 2006
Lost to Colorado State by 53 in 1916
Lost to Boise State by 52 in 2007

A few of these are very old games but a couple are also recent enough for some of us to remember.

It does highlight, however, that bowl eligible teams don’t really lose by 50 at home. We were stinky bad in all those years (maybe we were okay in ‘77 but I would have to check).

If we beat Nevada, it’ll be a near lock we get bowl eligible, since I can’t see us losing to UNM, and don’t see us losing to all of AFA, Wyoming, Boise, Fresno, and BYU (all of which I put in the toss-up category).

It was a good win today by SJSU over Army for their fourth win. It keeps SJSU’s bowl hopes alive. They will be slight favorites over UNLV, and they would also need to beat Fresno State or Hawaii to get to six wins.

As it now stands, there are still nine MWC teams with realistic bowl hopes.

Already qualified
Boise State
SDSU
Wyoming (or will be about an hour from now)

Highly likely
Air Force
USU

Work to do
Hawaii (4-3 and needs to finish 7-6)
Fresno State (3-3, could win six, probably not 7)
Nevada (4-3 with today’s loss but just needs to beat UNM and UNLV)
SJSU (4-4 with today’s win)

We will probably see seven teams eligible and an outside chance of eight. Fresno State plays all of the other three teams on the final group of four, plus Hawaii plays SJSU. Whoever can come out on top on those four games will end up getting bowl eligible.