Don't count on Queta playing against LSU.

newhouse9 wrote: ↑

November 18th, 2019, 11:23 am

March is what matters.

And these upcoming games will be the most important of the regular season in terms of assuring the team plays well into March. 0-3 against UF/SMC/LSU leaves the Aggies with little-to-no breathing room.It also means last year's team will have had two better wins (UNR, SMC) than any potential win remaining on the schedule, barring something unexpected.

Perhaps the committee will see Queta missed these games and not penalize the Aggies, but counting on the committee to help USU has proven fraught. Unless they want to be sweating the conference tournament, the Aggies need to win one of these games.

The good news is that this team is very good, so it shouldn't be an issue to pick up a win or two. But these games are very important to the team eventually winning in March.

Imakeitrain wrote: ↑

November 19th, 2019, 11:12 am

dirtnsnow wrote: ↑

November 19th, 2019, 11:00 am

Imakeitrain wrote: ↑

November 19th, 2019, 10:37 am

We cant seriously be thinking that if "Queta is out we automatically lose". A hobbled Queta isn't going to benefit us in any meaningful way.

I'll never complain about winning by 32- but the entire team needs to play better.

Brock Miller did not shoot well from 3 yesterday.
Brito had 3 turnovers, Porter had 3 turnovers, & Kuba had 4 (according to box) (each of them also did other things very well)

If we hit our open 3s and can cut down the turnovers we can absolutely win all 3 of these games (LSU, SMC, UF) without Queta.

If we miss uncontested 3s and continue to have turnovers then it will be hard to beat any of those teams (also it'll be hard to beat BYU if we make these types of mistakes)

Queta should do what Queta needs to do to get right- we will absolutely need him, healthy, later in the season.

If Queta isn't able to go, so be it- the rest of the guys will need to make the adjustments necessary to not have nearly 5 minutes without a basket again- because that is a 20 point run against anyone else that wasn't 0-4 going into the game.

I agree with the premise, but 20 points in 5 minutes would be on pace to score 160 in the game.

I dont think that's an extrapolation that would be made- if extrapolated that would not only be 160, it would be 160-0. My point was only that 5 minutes of not scoring against the mentioned teams would be a significant hurdle.

Right, I agree with the premise, the example was just hyperbole. The 8-9 points over 5 minutes seems more likely, though not a given as the amount of points scored by each team are independent of each other (one team not scoring for 5 minutes does not guarantee the other team will score).

I guess my point is, is that points come in bunches and shouldn’t always be extrapolated. A three followed by a quick turnover in transition can lead to an open 3 or an easy layup/dunk very fast- you could have 5 points in 10 seconds or you could have no points in 4 minutes. Despite that slump we had we still scored 80+ points.

My fear is that LSU will better be able to take advantage of turnovers and missed shots that are likely to be rampant during a period of time we aren’t scoring and will turn it into higher than average scoring.

But it’s not a hill I’m going to die on- because it’s just an opinion and we basically agree.

I kinda thought Smith eluded that Queta may redshirt. I probably misinterpreted, but after the exhibition game he said one other player may redshirt and it hasn’t been determined yet. I thought due to who had played in the exhibition game Queta was the only one still eligible to redshirt that hadn’t.

Without question, this team is better than all 3, even without Queta. St Mary's might beat us because it's at their house, we should beat the other 2 either way in close games. Florida gives Queta another month to recover

MetsJetsAggies wrote: ↑

November 19th, 2019, 1:23 pm

This team is better than all 3, even without Queta. St Mary's might beat us because it's at their house, we should beat the other 2 either way

I love my Aggies as much as the next fan, but I still don't know how we'll match up against LSU, St. Mary's, and Florida since we haven't really been tested yet this season.

I know ranking/rating systems are flawed -- and even more so early in the season -- but I'm going to use the KenPom system as a basis to compare teams on a level playing field here. On this system, USU's KenPom rating is currently 49.

Here are the current KenPom rantings for each of the opponents we have defeated so far:

Montana State - 230
Weber State - 270
Denver - 294
NC A&T - 335
UTSA - 219

Here are the KenPom ratings for select upcoming opponents

LSU - 45
St. Mary's - 37
Florida - 32
BYU-P - 68
SDSU - 72

These latter teams will give us a very different test than the opponents we've faced so far. Am I optimistic? Yes. Do I think we SHOULD beat LSU and Florida with or without Queta? Impossible to say at this point.

Have you watched those 3 teams play? LSU is good but 6 deep and no bench production. They will be tough. Florida is very underwhelming so far, they may put it together by the time we play them but today we would win by double digits on a neutral. St Mary's is good and will be a tough road game, that might be the toughest of the 3 given it's on the road.

I'm not saying we will win all 3, but the odds are good at 2-1 even without Queta. I think he will be back by Florida though

ChicAggie wrote: ↑

November 19th, 2019, 1:48 pm

MetsJetsAggies wrote: ↑

November 19th, 2019, 1:23 pm

This team is better than all 3, even without Queta. St Mary's might beat us because it's at their house, we should beat the other 2 either way

I love my Aggies as much as the next fan, but I still don't know how we'll match up against LSU, St. Mary's, and Florida since we haven't really been tested yet this season.

I know ranking/rating systems are flawed -- and even more so early in the season -- but I'm going to use the KenPom system as a basis to compare teams on a level playing field here. On this system, USU's KenPom rating is currently 49.

Here are the current KenPom rantings for each of the opponents we have defeated so far:

Montana State - 230
Weber State - 270
Denver - 294
NC A&T - 335
UTSA - 219

Here are the KenPom ratings for select upcoming opponents

LSU - 45
St. Mary's - 37
Florida - 32
BYU-P - 68
SDSU - 72

These latter teams will give us a very different test than the opponents we've faced so far. Am I optimistic? Yes. Do I think we SHOULD beat LSU and Florida with or without Queta? Impossible to say at this point.

One thing to point out with KenPom is that his early season metrics are pretty flawed and each game has moved USU up quite a bit. USU started the year at 68. So far we've performed better than expected while LSU, Saint Mary's and Florida have all performed worse than expected. This isn't to say that we will beat all 3 (or any of them) but early season expectations aren't always right.

My concern about LSU and Florida is their athleticism. I’m worried they clamp us down, deny our passes, and prohibit ball movement. We just don’t have the right players to drive by long and athletic defenders. I’m afraid it’ll be Washington all over again. That’s just my inner fears speaking. On the other hand, we have very capable shooters and if we can knock down our open 3’s and spread them out, own the boards (on defense), and get to the line, I like our chances. Though they are good, I actually think we have more depth so I’d like to see us attack the rim and get a few of them in foul trouble.

Our 3pt shooting has not been very good this year outside of Merrill. We are only 36% as a team with Merrill at 54% per ESPN. Next best is 36 Brito and 35 Miller.. Miller has to get that up above 40% if that is all he is going to do. If Miller goes 2-11 again we will lose.

usu99 wrote: ↑

November 19th, 2019, 4:01 pm

Our 3pt shooting has not been very good this year outside of Merrill. We are only 36% as a team with Merrill at 54% per ESPN. Next best is 36 Brito and 35 Miller.. Miller has to get that up above 40% if that is all he is going to do. If Miller goes 2-11 again we will lose.

This is one of the things that drove me crazy last year. At some point the green light has to be taken away from Miller. He had games last season where he was taking like 14 3's and not hitting very many. I couldn't believe some of the ones he took last night - out of rhythm, not within the offense, early in the shot clock, turn around jumpers from deep in the corner after tracking down an offensive rebound. At some point he needs to learn it is not his night shooting the ball and try to contribute in some other way.

Listening to Brito in the post-game was a perfect example. He said he just didn't feel like he was very confident in his shot last night so he focused on doing other things. Well, in focusing on other things he managed to score 17 points.

Chupamedia wrote: ↑

November 19th, 2019, 12:56 pm

I kinda thought Smith eluded that Queta may redshirt. I probably misinterpreted, but after the exhibition game he said one other player may redshirt and it hasn’t been determined yet. I thought due to who had played in the exhibition game Queta was the only one still eligible to redshirt that hadn’t.

*alluded: suggested or called attention to obliquely.
eluded: escaped or evaded.

Aglicious wrote: ↑

November 19th, 2019, 5:40 pm

usu99 wrote: ↑

November 19th, 2019, 4:01 pm

Our 3pt shooting has not been very good this year outside of Merrill. We are only 36% as a team with Merrill at 54% per ESPN. Next best is 36 Brito and 35 Miller.. Miller has to get that up above 40% if that is all he is going to do. If Miller goes 2-11 again we will lose.

This is one of the things that drove me crazy last year. At some point the green light has to be taken away from Miller. He had games last season where he was taking like 14 3's and not hitting very many. I couldn't believe some of the ones he took last night - out of rhythm, not within the offense, early in the shot clock, turn around jumpers from deep in the corner after tracking down an offensive rebound. At some point he needs to learn it is not his night shooting the ball and try to contribute in some other way.

Listening to Brito in the post-game was a perfect example. He said he just didn't feel like he was very confident in his shot last night so he focused on doing other things. Well, in focusing on other things he managed to score 17 points.

Smith did get really upset with miller over a few of those, I think it was after that he started to take a few in the paint floater shots. Hopefully smith starts to reign him in a bit.

usu99 wrote: ↑

November 19th, 2019, 4:01 pm

Our 3pt shooting has not been very good this year outside of Merrill. We are only 36% as a team with Merrill at 54% per ESPN. Next best is 36 Brito and 35 Miller.. Miller has to get that up above 40% if that is all he is going to do. If Miller goes 2-11 again we will lose.

Anything above 34% from 3 is better than 50% from 2. But yeah, Miller's hot/cold from game to game is frustrating.

akborder wrote: ↑

November 18th, 2019, 10:31 am

.....We are gonna have 3 losses coming quick with LSU, Florida, and St Mary’s and out of top 25 and at best secure a 11/12 seed for tourney.
I’m glad Kuba and Trevin are getting playing time, but their offense stinks and these are weaker opponentt we’ve been playing (except montana st)

Am I being dramatic? Maybe, but queta needs to play this week. If not, and we win, I’ll eat crow.

This guy is an idiot.

MetsJetsAggies wrote: ↑

November 19th, 2019, 1:54 pm

Have you watched those 3 teams play? LSU is good but 6 deep and no bench production. They will be tough. Florida is very underwhelming so far, they may put it together by the time we play them but today we would win by double digits on a neutral. St Mary's is good and will be a tough road game, that might be the toughest of the 3 given it's on the road.

I'm not saying we will win all 3, but the odds are good at 2-1 even without Queta. I think he will be back by Florida though

And why do you believe this?

brownjeans wrote:

usu99 wrote: ↑

November 19th, 2019, 4:01 pm

Our 3pt shooting has not been very good this year outside of Merrill. We are only 36% as a team with Merrill at 54% per ESPN. Next best is 36 Brito and 35 Miller.. Miller has to get that up above 40% if that is all he is going to do. If Miller goes 2-11 again we will lose.

Anything above 34% from 3 is better than 50% from 2. But yeah, Miller's hot/cold from game to game is frustrating.

Is a Miller jacking up threes at 34% better than Merrill, Brito, Andersen, etc creasing shots from all over and breaking a defense down? The point I made in another thread is the Miller is a chucker that hurts us by shooting threes 70% of the time.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

utaggies wrote: ↑

November 19th, 2019, 6:51 pm

MetsJetsAggies wrote: ↑

November 19th, 2019, 1:54 pm

Have you watched those 3 teams play? LSU is good but 6 deep and no bench production. They will be tough. Florida is very underwhelming so far, they may put it together by the time we play them but today we would win by double digits on a neutral. St Mary's is good and will be a tough road game, that might be the toughest of the 3 given it's on the road.

I'm not saying we will win all 3, but the odds are good at 2-1 even without Queta. I think he will be back by Florida though

And why do you believe this?

My trick knee says that he plays against LSU

I doubt we would just throw him in vs a very good team like LSU or St. Marys since he hasn't played so far. I have no clue when he will be back, but I would like to think and hope he will be back by the San Jose game, the first conference game. He could play the SJSU, Fresno, and then Saint Katherine game to somewhat "get back up to speed" before BYU, USF, and Florida games.

dyedblue wrote: ↑

November 19th, 2019, 7:34 pm

brownjeans wrote:

usu99 wrote: ↑

November 19th, 2019, 4:01 pm

Our 3pt shooting has not been very good this year outside of Merrill. We are only 36% as a team with Merrill at 54% per ESPN. Next best is 36 Brito and 35 Miller.. Miller has to get that up above 40% if that is all he is going to do. If Miller goes 2-11 again we will lose.

Anything above 34% from 3 is better than 50% from 2. But yeah, Miller's hot/cold from game to game is frustrating.

Is a Miller jacking up threes at 34% better than Merrill, Brito, Andersen, etc creasing shots from all over and breaking a defense down? The point I made in another thread is the Miller is a chucker that hurts us by shooting threes 70% of the time.

Merrill can't shoot all our shots on offense - especially if he's getting doubled. We need guys to help keep defenses spread out and from double-teaming. If Miller is out past the 3-point line and takes 5 threes and makes 2 of them and occasionally hits 3 of them, that's good because those threes are earning better than a 50% 2-pointer, and his defender needs to stay nearby which keeps his defender from doubling and creates more space inside for those who can drive or work in the post to do their work. I don't know Miller's open vs. guarded percentages, but if he shoots much better when open that's awesome! That means the defender has to stay close to keep Miller's percentage down. This is why it doesn't bother me in the slightest if 70% of his shots are 3s - so long as he's shooting well enough to create defensive gravity he's helping the team, not hurting it.
Of course, if all of our players were like Miller and NONE of them could drive and finish at the rim or drive and dish, that would be bad. But one guy... meh, it's like having a poor man's Kyle Korver on the team - who since about 2014 -2015 has shot 70% of his shots as 3s - albeit at ~40%.

I'm not a fan of Miller taking 11 threes and hitting 2 of them. That sucks, and he doesn't have much of a drive game so it's not like he can start driving to the rim when his shot's not falling. I certainly don't want him doing that thing where he takes a couple of dribbles and takes a long 2. That's a terrible shot. If his 3 isn't falling, he's pretty useless on offense. But he is who he is.

utaggies wrote: ↑

November 19th, 2019, 6:51 pm

MetsJetsAggies wrote: ↑

November 19th, 2019, 1:54 pm

Have you watched those 3 teams play? LSU is good but 6 deep and no bench production. They will be tough. Florida is very underwhelming so far, they may put it together by the time we play them but today we would win by double digits on a neutral. St Mary's is good and will be a tough road game, that might be the toughest of the 3 given it's on the road.

I'm not saying we will win all 3, but the odds are good at 2-1 even without Queta. I think he will be back by Florida though

And why do you believe this?

He's been warming up and practicing. Florida is a month away, I think he will be healthy enough to play in a month.

I've now become much more pessimistic about everything Aggie. I don't expect Queta's return.

We haven't yet seen Kuba developing his offense.

Our #15 ranking is meaningless with regard to comparisons against opponents.

LSU and Florida are very athletic and we're playing them away from the spectrum after a long road trip.

This was my year to really hope the Aggies would defeat a p5 on the road, be it football or basketball.

I don't see that happening now without Queta's return. I also haven't yet seen a counter solution to quickness and athleticism at PG and SG. This team has a size advantage of they take better shots and slow the game down and make wise ball handling decisions. However I haven't yet seen that become a primary focus in our game plan. I know we've played subpar opponents but this needed to go into effect before the LSU game not after.

Therefore I don't see all of the pieces coming together until conference play.

Everyone keep AggieFBObsession away from any cliffs and/or sharp objects!

I think we are better equipped to be without him for an extended. Of time this year. Bean and Anderson are playing extremely well and while they are not 7 feet tall they can handle the post area pretty well. Kuba while he hasn't been dominating I think he's been solid and will only get better.

ProvoAggie wrote: ↑

November 19th, 2019, 2:17 pm

One thing to point out with KenPom is that his early season metrics are pretty flawed and each game has moved USU up quite a bit. USU started the year at 68. So far we've performed better than expected while LSU, Saint Mary's and Florida have all performed worse than expected. This isn't to say that we will beat all 3 (or any of them) but early season expectations aren't always right.

I anticipated this post, but thought I would stave it off by acknowledging "I know ranking/rating systems are flawed -- and even more so early in the season -- but I'm going to use the KenPom system as a basis to compare teams on a level playing field here." My post wasn't intended to suggest that LSU, St. Mary's, or Florida are better than USU, but to highlight that all five of our previous five games were against teams likely in the bottom third of the college basketball ranks while the games against LSU, St. Mary's, and Florida are against teams in the top third. Hard to use our prior five games as predictors of how good the Aggies will be against tougher competition. I'm optimistic, but not ready to predict three wins. Or even two. Particularly without Queta who had a HUGE impact last season in ways that aren't necessarily obvious from the box score.

MrBiggle wrote: ↑

November 19th, 2019, 6:03 pm

Aglicious wrote: ↑

November 19th, 2019, 5:40 pm

usu99 wrote: ↑

November 19th, 2019, 4:01 pm

Our 3pt shooting has not been very good this year outside of Merrill. We are only 36% as a team with Merrill at 54% per ESPN. Next best is 36 Brito and 35 Miller.. Miller has to get that up above 40% if that is all he is going to do. If Miller goes 2-11 again we will lose.

This is one of the things that drove me crazy last year. At some point the green light has to be taken away from Miller. He had games last season where he was taking like 14 3's and not hitting very many. I couldn't believe some of the ones he took last night - out of rhythm, not within the offense, early in the shot clock, turn around jumpers from deep in the corner after tracking down an offensive rebound. At some point he needs to learn it is not his night shooting the ball and try to contribute in some other way.

Listening to Brito in the post-game was a perfect example. He said he just didn't feel like he was very confident in his shot last night so he focused on doing other things. Well, in focusing on other things he managed to score 17 points.

Smith did get really upset with miller over a few of those, I think it was after that he started to take a few in the paint floater shots. Hopefully smith starts to reign him in a bit.

Doug Gotleib was announcing that game and he made mention of how upset Smith was right there but He also said they were setting up getting into their play and then Miller just jacked it up out of nowhere right in the middle of the play they were running.

Also, Doug has always been complimentary of USU but I think he is in love with our school and couldn’t stop talking about it. He did wonder where wild Bill was though.

frankiesaysrelax wrote: ↑

November 20th, 2019, 2:18 pm

MrBiggle wrote: ↑

November 19th, 2019, 6:03 pm

Aglicious wrote: ↑

November 19th, 2019, 5:40 pm

usu99 wrote: ↑

November 19th, 2019, 4:01 pm

Our 3pt shooting has not been very good this year outside of Merrill. We are only 36% as a team with Merrill at 54% per ESPN. Next best is 36 Brito and 35 Miller.. Miller has to get that up above 40% if that is all he is going to do. If Miller goes 2-11 again we will lose.

This is one of the things that drove me crazy last year. At some point the green light has to be taken away from Miller. He had games last season where he was taking like 14 3's and not hitting very many. I couldn't believe some of the ones he took last night - out of rhythm, not within the offense, early in the shot clock, turn around jumpers from deep in the corner after tracking down an offensive rebound. At some point he needs to learn it is not his night shooting the ball and try to contribute in some other way.

Listening to Brito in the post-game was a perfect example. He said he just didn't feel like he was very confident in his shot last night so he focused on doing other things. Well, in focusing on other things he managed to score 17 points.

Smith did get really upset with miller over a few of those, I think it was after that he started to take a few in the paint floater shots. Hopefully smith starts to reign him in a bit.

Doug Gotleib was announcing that game and he made mention of how upset Smith was right there but He also said they were setting up getting into their play and then Miller just jacked it up out of nowhere right in the middle of the play they were running.

Also, Doug has always been complimentary of USU but I think he is in love with our school and couldn’t stop talking about it. He did wonder where wild Bill was though.

Maybe he's angling for the HC job if Smith ever leaves

frankiesaysrelax wrote: ↑

November 20th, 2019, 2:18 pm

MrBiggle wrote: ↑

November 19th, 2019, 6:03 pm

Aglicious wrote: ↑

November 19th, 2019, 5:40 pm

usu99 wrote: ↑

November 19th, 2019, 4:01 pm

Our 3pt shooting has not been very good this year outside of Merrill. We are only 36% as a team with Merrill at 54% per ESPN. Next best is 36 Brito and 35 Miller.. Miller has to get that up above 40% if that is all he is going to do. If Miller goes 2-11 again we will lose.

This is one of the things that drove me crazy last year. At some point the green light has to be taken away from Miller. He had games last season where he was taking like 14 3's and not hitting very many. I couldn't believe some of the ones he took last night - out of rhythm, not within the offense, early in the shot clock, turn around jumpers from deep in the corner after tracking down an offensive rebound. At some point he needs to learn it is not his night shooting the ball and try to contribute in some other way.

Listening to Brito in the post-game was a perfect example. He said he just didn't feel like he was very confident in his shot last night so he focused on doing other things. Well, in focusing on other things he managed to score 17 points.

Smith did get really upset with miller over a few of those, I think it was after that he started to take a few in the paint floater shots. Hopefully smith starts to reign him in a bit.

Doug Gotleib was announcing that game and he made mention of how upset Smith was right there but He also said they were setting up getting into their play and then Miller just jacked it up out of nowhere right in the middle of the play they were running.

Also, Doug has always been complimentary of USU but I think he is in love with our school and couldn’t stop talking about it. He did wonder where wild Bill was though.

Maybe he's angling for the HC job if Smith ever leaves

frankiesaysrelax wrote: ↑

November 20th, 2019, 2:18 pm

Also, Doug has always been complimentary of USU . . .

My recollection is different. He completely trashed the program in 2004 when we were 25-3, and he said loudly and repeatedly that we did not deserve an at-large bid.

ChicAggie wrote:

frankiesaysrelax wrote: ↑

November 20th, 2019, 2:18 pm

Also, Doug has always been complimentary of USU . . .

My recollection is different. He completely trashed the program in 2004 when we were 25-3, and he said loudly and repeatedly that we did not deserve an at-large bid.

We totally proved him wrong that year

ChicAggie wrote: ↑

November 21st, 2019, 7:12 am

frankiesaysrelax wrote: ↑

November 20th, 2019, 2:18 pm

Also, Doug has always been complimentary of USU . . .

My recollection is different. He completely trashed the program in 2004 when we were 25-3, and he said loudly and repeatedly that we did not deserve an at-large bid.

I was surprised when he started talking about Jared Quayle, Tai Wesley, and Gary Wilkinson. He was very complimentary the last two games I've listened to him announce, which surprised me because I used to have a poor impression of him because of him trashing the program in the past. I like his announcing though and his take on the game.

His production crew needs some work though. There were a couple times where he was trying to give some analysis on the play and would ask the video to stop and it just kept on rolling.

UtahStizzle wrote: ↑

November 21st, 2019, 8:05 am

ChicAggie wrote:

frankiesaysrelax wrote: ↑

November 20th, 2019, 2:18 pm

Also, Doug has always been complimentary of USU . . .

My recollection is different. He completely trashed the program in 2004 when we were 25-3, and he said loudly and repeatedly that we did not deserve an at-large bid.

We totally proved him wrong that year

Touché.

Bump

"Without question"