If I had a time machine

hipsterdoofus21 · Post by **hipsterdoofus21** » February 15th, 2020, 11:46 pm

I’d use it for many things of course but one thing I’d do is go back and stop Smith from ever telling Miller to not pass up the open three during one of those first practices early on after Smith arrived. The story we always hear about and the one that makes me cringe.

Miller needs a shot doctor. I hate hearing “how close” Miller is cause he has so many rim out as if it’s just bad luck. It’s not. He’s putting way too much rotation on the ball. Shooting it off the palm and not the finger tips. Flinging it instead of shooting it.

troutputz · Post by **troutputz** » February 16th, 2020, 12:04 am

One of the announcers in a game I was watching today said about one of the players that was in a shooting slump. He said, if your a shooter sometimes you just have to have selective amnesia and just keep shooting. Well, our Miller doesn’t have selective amnesia, Hell, he’s in a Coma!

lcrasmus · Post by **lcrasmus** » February 16th, 2020, 12:08 am

hipsterdoofus21 wrote:I’d use it for many things of course but one thing I’d do is go back and stop Smith from ever telling Miller to not pass up the open three during one of those first practices early on after Smith arrived. The story we always hear about and the one that makes me cringe.

Miller needs a shot doctor. I hate hearing “how close” Miller is cause he has so many rim out as if it’s just bad luck. It’s not. He’s putting way too much rotation on the ball. Shooting it off the palm and not the finger tips. Flinging it instead of shooting it.

Honest question:

Which games have we lost that our 3 point percentage is the main contributor to that loss?

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hipsterdoofus21 · Post by **hipsterdoofus21** » February 16th, 2020, 2:46 am

lcrasmus wrote: ↑
February 16th, 2020, 12:08 am

hipsterdoofus21 wrote:I’d use it for many things of course but one thing I’d do is go back and stop Smith from ever telling Miller to not pass up the open three during one of those first practices early on after Smith arrived. The story we always hear about and the one that makes me cringe.

Miller needs a shot doctor. I hate hearing “how close” Miller is cause he has so many rim out as if it’s just bad luck. It’s not. He’s putting way too much rotation on the ball. Shooting it off the palm and not the finger tips. Flinging it instead of shooting it.

Honest question:

Which games have we lost that our 3 point percentage is the main contributor to that loss?

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At UNLV, we went 2-19 from three.
Home against SDSU, we went 6-23
At Boise, we went 6-28
At BYU, 6-21

SectionBAggie · Post by **SectionBAggie** » February 16th, 2020, 7:47 am

At UNLV, Miller was 1-7. Rest of the team was 1-12.
Vs BYU, Miller was 1-3. Rest of the team was 5-18.
SDSU, Miller was 0-3. Rest of the team was 6-20.
BSU, Miller was 0-3. Rest of the team was 6-25.
Miller’s 2-16 over those games is dismal. But the rest of the team being 18-75 is very telling as well. EFG% of 36% won’t win many games with or without Miller.

lcrasmus · Post by **lcrasmus** » February 16th, 2020, 7:53 am

SectionBAggie wrote:At UNLV, Miller was 1-7. Rest of the team was 1-12.
Vs BYU, Miller was 1-3. Rest of the team was 5-18.
SDSU, Miller was 0-3. Rest of the team was 6-20.
BSU, Miller was 0-3. Rest of the team was 6-25.
Miller’s 2-16 over those games is dismal. But the rest of the team being 18-75 is very telling as well. EFG% of 36% won’t win many games with or without Miller.

So, if my math is right, if we bump Miller to 40% on all games, the only result that changes is BSU?

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TrueBlueFan · Post by **TrueBlueFan** » February 16th, 2020, 8:14 am

lcrasmus wrote: ↑
February 16th, 2020, 7:53 am

SectionBAggie wrote:At UNLV, Miller was 1-7. Rest of the team was 1-12.
Vs BYU, Miller was 1-3. Rest of the team was 5-18.
SDSU, Miller was 0-3. Rest of the team was 6-20.
BSU, Miller was 0-3. Rest of the team was 6-25.
Miller’s 2-16 over those games is dismal. But the rest of the team being 18-75 is very telling as well. EFG% of 36% won’t win many games with or without Miller.
So, if my math is right, if we bump Miller to 40% on all games, the only result that changes is BSU?

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And byu

lcrasmus · Post by **lcrasmus** » February 16th, 2020, 8:17 am

TrueBlueFan wrote:
lcrasmus wrote: ↑
February 16th, 2020, 7:53 am

SectionBAggie wrote:At UNLV, Miller was 1-7. Rest of the team was 1-12.
Vs BYU, Miller was 1-3. Rest of the team was 5-18.
SDSU, Miller was 0-3. Rest of the team was 6-20.
BSU, Miller was 0-3. Rest of the team was 6-25.
Miller’s 2-16 over those games is dismal. But the rest of the team being 18-75 is very telling as well. EFG% of 36% won’t win many games with or without Miller.
So, if my math is right, if we bump Miller to 40% on all games, the only result that changes is BSU?

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And byu

Lost BYU by 4, putting him at 2-3 instead of 1-3 still loses that game.

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hipsterdoofus21 · Post by **hipsterdoofus21** » February 16th, 2020, 8:25 am

You’re assuming that him shooting 40% is the alternative variable to the equation. What if instead of jacking up ill advised shots we got the ball inside to Queta or Merrill instead?
You’d also have to break down each individual shot to know exactly it’s affect on the game. Was it a pull up in transition where someone else may have had a high percentage layup? Conversely, Did the three lead to a long rebound and transition points for the opponent? Would someone else have had a better chance of making a three point attempt on that possession if given the chance?

dyedblue · Post by **dyedblue** » February 16th, 2020, 8:29 am

You can to defend Miller’s play all you went to, but he is abysmal in every category. If you go to advanced stats it’s even worse.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/sc ... /2020.html

It isn’t just the misses, it’s taking shots away from Sam and Queta. Additionally, it’s the 2-3 transition baskets that result from jacking a touch less shot out of the flow of the offense.

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lcrasmus · Post by **lcrasmus** » February 16th, 2020, 8:30 am

dyedblue wrote:You can to defend Miller’s play all you went to, but he is abysmal in every category. If you go to advanced stats it’s even worse.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/sc ... /2020.html

It isn’t just the misses, it’s taking shots away from Sam and Queta. Additionally, it’s the 2-3 transition baskets that result from jacking a touch less shot out of the flow of the offense.

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How many shots did Miller take from Queta in our first 4 losses?

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dyedblue · Post by **dyedblue** » February 16th, 2020, 8:53 am

None because Queta didn’t play. I don’t think those losses are solely on Miller, but he certainly didn’t lead us to victory. My argument isn’t over the losses being in Miller, it’s that we would be a better team if Miller would find something he can do well and specialize in it. Newbold was hailed as a great player despite never averaging more than 9 points a game. He knew his role and perfected it. He made his team better.

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lcrasmus · Post by **lcrasmus** » February 16th, 2020, 9:23 am

dyedblue wrote:None because Queta didn’t play. I don’t think those losses are solely on Miller, but he certainly didn’t lead us to victory. My argument isn’t over the losses being in Miller, it’s that we would be a better team if Miller would find something he can do well and specialize in it. Newbold was hailed as a great player despite never averaging more than 9 points a game. He knew his role and perfected it. He made his team better.

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This is a well worded and fair assessment.

To be clear, I'm not trying to claim Miller isn't struggling, and even struggling a lot. But the extrapolation that is happening is "if he wasn't struggling the team wouldn't be" To which I reply both "the team isn't struggling as bad as you are making it out to be" and "solving Miller's shooting woes would not have changed our record much to this point."

My point, on the whole, is we have 7 losses total this year. And "fixing the Miller problem", if we're really honest, would actively change the result in 1-2 of those games. BSU for sure. Maybe BYU? Not SDSU X2. Not St Marys. Not Air Force. Not UNLV. If people want to complain about stats in wins, I find that weird. So if someone's perception and joy in this team is changed that drastically by then being 23-5 vs 21-7? ESPECIALLY considering that Queta has only been back to full strength for MAYBE 8 of those games? I just don't understand that person.

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Aggie19 · Post by **Aggie19** » February 16th, 2020, 9:53 am

lcrasmus wrote: ↑
February 16th, 2020, 9:23 am

dyedblue wrote:None because Queta didn’t play. I don’t think those losses are solely on Miller, but he certainly didn’t lead us to victory. My argument isn’t over the losses being in Miller, it’s that we would be a better team if Miller would find something he can do well and specialize in it. Newbold was hailed as a great player despite never averaging more than 9 points a game. He knew his role and perfected it. He made his team better.

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This is a well worded and fair assessment.

To be clear, I'm not trying to claim Miller isn't struggling, and even struggling a lot. But the extrapolation that is happening is "if he wasn't struggling the team wouldn't be" To which I reply both "the team isn't struggling as bad as you are making it out to be" and "solving Miller's shooting woes would not have changed our record much to this point."

My point, on the whole, is we have 7 losses total this year. And "fixing the Miller problem", if we're really honest, would actively change the result in 1-2 of those games. BSU for sure. Maybe BYU? Not SDSU X2. Not St Marys. Not Air Force. Not UNLV. If people want to complain about stats in wins, I find that weird. So if someone's perception and joy in this team is changed that drastically by then being 23-5 vs 21-7? ESPECIALLY considering that Queta has only been back to full strength for MAYBE 8 of those games? I just don't understand that person.

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The reality is we don't know what an improved Miller's shooting would have done to our wins and losses. You can't look at these things in a vacuum. Did a missed shot lead to a fast break? If he would have made x shots does that lift the rest of the team to do better? Does it stop a run being made by the other team? We don't know. It's like the butterfly effect. Bottom line, Miller is struggling, as others have this year. Others seem to be coming around, like Brito, so maybe it's time to limit Miller and go with someone who is playing better.

dyedblue · Post by **dyedblue** » February 16th, 2020, 10:18 am

If you add a made three, two assists, two rebounds, and a steal does it change the game? That’s what Brito does in the same game time as Miller. I don’t know if that changes losses into wins, but it does make us better.

Are there any defensive stats out there for college guys to see the impact on that side of the ball?

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lcrasmus · Post by **lcrasmus** » February 16th, 2020, 10:43 am

dyedblue wrote:If you add a made three, two assists, two rebounds, and a steal does it change the game? That’s what Brito does in the same game time as Miller. I don’t know if that changes losses into wins, but it does make us better.

Are there any defensive stats out there for college guys to see the impact on that side of the ball?

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I agree that would make us better. But my feeling would be that, in the end, "better" would be judged by W/L record. And 1-2 games difference doesn't sway that for many, I don't think.

For defense stats, https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/co ... aders.html tracks defensive rating, and defensive win shares. Miller is top 16 in the MWC in both. He's behind several other Aggies, but comparing him only to his teammates may not be completely fair. He's a better defender (within our system) than 95% of our conference players.

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hipsterdoofus21 · Post by **hipsterdoofus21** » February 16th, 2020, 10:56 am

I think a Q1 win over BYU and Q2 win at Boise would make our resume look a heck of a lot better.

lcrasmus · Post by **lcrasmus** » February 16th, 2020, 10:58 am

hipsterdoofus21 wrote:I think a Q1 win over BYU and Q2 win at Boise would make our resume look a heck of a lot better.

Obviously this still puts us 2nd in the Conference.

Where does it put us seeding wise for the NCAA? Firmly off the bubble? 10 seed?

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hipsterdoofus21 · Post by **hipsterdoofus21** » February 16th, 2020, 11:01 am

lcrasmus wrote: ↑
February 16th, 2020, 10:58 am

hipsterdoofus21 wrote:I think a Q1 win over BYU and Q2 win at Boise would make our resume look a heck of a lot better.
Obviously this still puts us 2nd in the Conference.

Where does it put us seeding wise for the NCAA? Firmly off the bubble? 10 seed?

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Safe at large team. No longer on the bubble. Seeds 7-10 are a wash so I’d gladly take a 10 seed.

slcagg · Post by **slcagg** » February 16th, 2020, 11:29 am

I’m hoping for a 10 spot in Omaha. I don’t think we are safe though. We have to win out to the championship game imo.

hipsterdoofus21 · Post by **hipsterdoofus21** » February 16th, 2020, 12:17 pm

slcagg wrote: ↑
February 16th, 2020, 11:29 am
I’m hoping for a 10 spot in Omaha. I don’t think we are safe though. We have to win out to the championship game imo.

I agree, not safe. Especially with LSU struggling. I’ll be sweating it out until we win the MW tourney and remove all doubt.

Yossarian · Post by **Yossarian** » February 16th, 2020, 1:12 pm

If I could put time in a bottle....

MrBiggle · Post by **MrBiggle** » February 16th, 2020, 3:58 pm

Just get rid of the head band and all will be as it should.

mcaggie1 · Post by **mcaggie1** » February 16th, 2020, 4:22 pm

hipsterdoofus21 wrote: ↑
February 16th, 2020, 8:25 am
You’re assuming that him shooting 40% is the alternative variable to the equation. What if instead of jacking up ill advised shots we got the ball inside to Queta or Merrill instead?
You’d also have to break down each individual shot to know exactly it’s affect on the game. Was it a pull up in transition where someone else may have had a high percentage layup? Conversely, Did the three lead to a long rebound and transition points for the opponent? Would someone else have had a better chance of making a three point attempt on that possession if given the chance?

According to another thread on this board, all we need to do is assure that Brito gets 10 plus points every game.
Since he has played for us we have never lost when he scores 10 points or more.

TrueBlueFan · Post by **TrueBlueFan** » February 16th, 2020, 4:34 pm

lcrasmus wrote: ↑
February 16th, 2020, 8:17 am

TrueBlueFan wrote:
lcrasmus wrote: ↑
February 16th, 2020, 7:53 am

SectionBAggie wrote:At UNLV, Miller was 1-7. Rest of the team was 1-12.
Vs BYU, Miller was 1-3. Rest of the team was 5-18.
SDSU, Miller was 0-3. Rest of the team was 6-20.
BSU, Miller was 0-3. Rest of the team was 6-25.
Miller’s 2-16 over those games is dismal. But the rest of the team being 18-75 is very telling as well. EFG% of 36% won’t win many games with or without Miller.
So, if my math is right, if we bump Miller to 40% on all games, the only result that changes is BSU?

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And byu
Lost BYU by 4, putting him at 2-3 instead of 1-3 still loses that game.

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Since we are doing hypothetical situations, Anderson hit a 3 but his toe was in the line for an NBA distance but it only got counted as two. In that case, if Miller shot 1/3 we would have at least tied and gone into overtime.

Post by **aggies22** » February 16th, 2020, 9:27 pm

mcaggie1 wrote: ↑
February 16th, 2020, 4:22 pm

hipsterdoofus21 wrote: ↑
February 16th, 2020, 8:25 am
You’re assuming that him shooting 40% is the alternative variable to the equation. What if instead of jacking up ill advised shots we got the ball inside to Queta or Merrill instead?
You’d also have to break down each individual shot to know exactly it’s affect on the game. Was it a pull up in transition where someone else may have had a high percentage layup? Conversely, Did the three lead to a long rebound and transition points for the opponent? Would someone else have had a better chance of making a three point attempt on that possession if given the chance?
According to another thread on this board, all we need to do is assure that Brito gets 10 plus points every game.
Since he has played for us we have never lost when he scores 10 points or more.

That's true. When Brito hit the 3 to get himself to 10 total points, I jumped off the couch and yelled game!

MetsJetsAggies · Post by **MetsJetsAggies** » February 16th, 2020, 9:49 pm

I'd tell Smith to recruit a Juco or transfer combo guard heavily after we lost both Knights from last year. They could have taken time from Porter and Miller

We just don't have a great alternative. Bairstow is good but slow/raw

hipsterdoofus21 · Post by **hipsterdoofus21** » February 16th, 2020, 9:54 pm

MetsJetsAggies wrote: ↑
February 16th, 2020, 9:49 pm
I'd tell Smith to recruit a Juco or transfer combo guard heavily after we lost both Knights from last year. They could have taken time from Porter and Miller

We just don't have a great alternative. Bairstow is good but slow/raw

From all accounts Bischoff is at least an alternative in the shooting department, but we stuck to his redshirt all season.

OrangeCountyAggie · Post by **OrangeCountyAggie** » February 16th, 2020, 11:43 pm

hipsterdoofus21 wrote: ↑
February 15th, 2020, 11:46 pm
I’d use it for many things of course but one thing I’d do is go back and stop Smith from ever telling Miller to not pass up the open three during one of those first practices early on after Smith arrived. The story we always hear about and the one that makes me cringe.

Miller needs a shot doctor. I hate hearing “how close” Miller is cause he has so many rim out as if it’s just bad luck. It’s not. He’s putting way too much rotation on the ball. Shooting it off the palm and not the finger tips. Flinging it instead of shooting it.

Good call! That story makes me cringe, every time I hear it as does Smith still saying Miller is in a "slump." It's asinine! It kind of reminds me of Wells sticking with Myers over Love with all of us fans pulling our hair out!

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