We are back up a little, coming at 49 this morning. Given the competition we have been playing lately, not too bad. Wish the Aztecs and donks would drop a game.

mcaggie1 wrote: ↑

March 1st, 2021, 10:42 am

We are back up a little, coming at 49 this morning. Given the competition we have been playing lately, not too bad. Wish the Aztecs and donks would drop a game.

No you don't. We're probably moving up because SDSU keeps winning.

flying_scotsman2.0 wrote: ↑

March 1st, 2021, 10:53 am

mcaggie1 wrote: ↑

March 1st, 2021, 10:42 am

We are back up a little, coming at 49 this morning. Given the competition we have been playing lately, not too bad. Wish the Aztecs and donks would drop a game.

No you don't. We're probably moving up because SDSU keeps winning.

Ooooh, good point. And I should have remembered that. Momentary lapse.

Yeah. At this point we are locked into the 2-3 game as long as we win out against Wyo and Fresno, which we should do if we are a good team. SDSU is our best win(2x) and keeps looking better and better. BSU is in the 4th position and can’t do anything about it themselves. We want them both to win out to make our losses/wins look better.

I find it interesting that BSU at the 4th position in the conference tourney bracket would be on the same side as the 2 teams that swept them, Nev and SDSU. That’s not promising for them. For us, we would play a lower tier team and then CSU who I think we match up with pretty well. Not a guaranteed win though. We really need to win that game though to get another Q1 to bolster our resume. That game though might see the loser drop out of at large contention. Then likely we would be playing SDSU or BSU in the championship. A loss to either wouldn’t hurt us and obviously a win would just put us in.


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So let's say we win out and get to 15-4. CSU beats AFA (1 game) and then loses at Nevada making their record 13-4. Would we be the number 2 seed because we have more wins?

2 seed is ideal as you stay away from UNLV and Nevada in the quarters.

If we can move even two spots per win in the net rankings for the next four games (Wyoming, Fresno State, MWT quarterfinal, and MWT semifinal) then we might be able to snag an at-large bid depending on what happens to the teams in front of us. I thought we would be completely out of the picture, but I'm starting to believe that there's still small chance. The Mountain West tournament semi-final game might jump us three or four spots with
a win if it's against one of the other top three teams in the conference.

ProvoAggie wrote: ↑

March 1st, 2021, 11:32 am

Aggiealum13 wrote: ↑

March 1st, 2021, 11:23 am

If we can move even two spots per win in the net rankings for the next four games (Wyoming, Fresno State, MWT quarterfinal, and MWT semifinal) then we might be able to snag an at-large bid depending on what happens to the teams in front of us. I thought we would be completely out of the picture, but I'm starting to believe that there's still small chance. The Mountain West tournament semi-final game might jump us three or four spots with
a win if it's against one of the other top three teams in the conference.

We won't jump 2 spots per win against Wyoming and Fresno unless we have some teams ahead of us lose some games as well. We aren't exactly finishing with a strong slate.

I'm with you on that. Winning the next three will keep us in it, but the big jump hopefully occurs in the semi-final in the tournament. Basically if we get to the final game and lose, we will be within range of an at-large if we stay in the low 40s in the net rankings.

If the Aggies win the next 2 and then make it to the finals of the tournament and lose to either SDSU or Boise I would think we would have a ~70% chance of an at large bid.

Aggie84025 wrote: ↑

March 1st, 2021, 11:57 am

If the Aggies win the next 2 and then make it to the finals of the tournament and lose to either SDSU or Boise I would think we would have a ~70% chance of an at large bid.

Well that would give us another Q1 win against CSU and a Q1 loss against SDSU or Boise. I think this is a good assessment. Although it might knock CSU off the bubble. I just don't think they'll take 4 MW teams.

I think 4 teams might be an option. like the tourney at the start of the season I expect several teams will be ineligible so that the first 4 out and possible next 4 out will have a good chance of actually getting in.

I think our likely conference semi-final matchup with CSU will be an elimination game of sorts. If we otherwise win out but lose the tourney title game, I will feel okay about our at-large chances, but I think we have to reach the tourney final to have a real chance.

So if we win out and CSU loses at Reno and SDSU loses at Vegas, wouldn’t we get the 1 seed as we have the tie breaker over them? Not out of the realm of possibilities that the Rebs could pull the upset.

ProvoAggie wrote: ↑

March 1st, 2021, 11:55 pm

AGGIEinIOWA wrote:So if we win out and CSU loses at Reno and SDSU loses at Vegas, wouldn’t we get the 1 seed as we have the tie breaker over them? Not out of the realm of possibilities that the Rebs could pull the upset.

We would and it could happen... Just not likely.

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SDSU losing is probably not gonna happen. I actually expect Nevada to win at home against CSU. Nevada has been good at home.

Before the BSU series I was not concerned about our 3-point “toe stub” against UNLV. That’s because I was confident we’d at least split with the Broncos. Our inability to do so combined with the UNLV loss will probably cost us a share of the conference championship unless highly events occur) and the #1 seed into the tournament and dramatically affected our prospects of an at-large NCAA bid. Alas!

Would you rather have #1 in the conference tournament and likely play BSU (or Nevada) or be where we are at right now and play CSU? Thoughts?


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scotlandog wrote: ↑

March 2nd, 2021, 8:26 am

Would you rather have #1 in the conference tournament and likely play BSU (or Nevada) or be where we are at right now and play CSU? Thoughts?


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That is a tough call. CSU is a very good team with very good shooters. We dominated them the first game, but the 2nd game Niko had a really good game plan. When they brought out their center to set a pick for Stevens they killed us with Queta negated from being in the post. I would still probably rather play CSU. BSU has some players that are bad match ups for the aggies. Not sure how we play against NEV on a neutral floor. With Worster being back I think the Aggies will be a tough out next week.

ProvoAggie wrote:I'd rather be the 1 seed. Who doesn't want to win the conference regular season?

True. I think this goes back to a discussion on this board a little while back, would you rather win the regular season or the conference tournament. Right now, I would take the conference tournament.

With that said, I’m not sure the 1 seed has the easiest path. I don’t want to play BSU again or even Nevada a third time on neutral court. I think they had rust from the long layoff and we took advantage. I think our best matchup is CSU but no game is easy or guaranteed. But right now CSU is my vote and is also the likely scenario.


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I'd almost always rather be the tourney champ (trophy, auto bid, prestige, etc.), but I think the regular season champ is typically indicative of the better team.

scotlandog wrote: ↑

March 2nd, 2021, 9:24 am

ProvoAggie wrote:I'd rather be the 1 seed. Who doesn't want to win the conference regular season?

True. I think this goes back to a discussion on this board a little while back, would you rather win the regular season or the conference tournament. Right now, I would take the conference tournament.

With that said, I’m not sure the 1 seed has the easiest path. I don’t want to play BSU again or even Nevada a third time on neutral court. I think they had rust from the long layoff and we took advantage. I think our best matchup is CSU but no game is easy or guaranteed. But right now CSU is my vote and is also the likely scenario.

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If we win out, there’s not really a bad scenario. We either get to add another trophy to the case because SDSU stubbed a toe, or we get what I see as a more favorable path to the tourney title game in a 2/3 game against CSU. I think we match up best with CSU of all of the “strong” teams in the conference, but we could lose to or beat any of them. Things are pretty evenly matched at the top of the league.

From ESPN's bubble watch:

Welcome back, Aggies. Bubble Watch has missed you. After Craig Smith's men lost two games at Boise State by a total of 13 points, the bubble outlook looked grim indeed. Then a funny thing happened. Projected Nos. 11 and 12 seeds started falling out of the bracket, while a few "first four out" and "next four out" programs also encountered difficulties in winning games. Meanwhile, USU was quietly taking care of business in a two-game set at home against Nevada. This combination of faltering competitors and steady performance on Utah State's part has lifted the Aggies back into the picture. The 50-something NET ranking still looks adequate and the "sweep" of San Diego State (both games were played in Logan, Utah) is still impressive. USU has a chance. Again.

The athletic bubble watch:

Utah State (15-7, 13-4; NET: 49, SOS: 93): Nevada isn’t the world’s greatest team, but the Wolfpack are a top-100-ish squad, which is to say that when you beat them twice in two nights you can boost your chances of making the NCAA Tournament, even if from a quantitative standpoint. After twin road losses to Boise State, the Aggies just needed positive performances. They got them, and they’re still in this mix. That sweep of San Diego State holds them in good stead

We actually bumped up to 48 with some teams losing in front of us. Looking at other teams in the vicinity, there will be more losses and if we keep winning , we should be at least mid 40’s before the conference tourney if not low 40’s. That should have us in good position. We win our first game (UNLV?) and then our semi (CSU?) and we should be good to go.


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Aggie84025 wrote: ↑

March 2nd, 2021, 8:33 am

scotlandog wrote: ↑

March 2nd, 2021, 8:26 am

Would you rather have #1 in the conference tournament and likely play BSU (or Nevada) or be where we are at right now and play CSU? Thoughts?


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That is a tough call. CSU is a very good team with very good shooters. We dominated them the first game, but the 2nd game Niko had a really good game plan. When they brought out their center to set a pick for Stevens they killed us with Queta negated from being in the post. I would still probably rather play CSU. BSU has some players that are bad match ups for the aggies. Not sure how we play against NEV on a neutral floor. With Worster being back I think the Aggies will be a tough out next week.

We lost to BSU on their floor, without Rollie, after a long break. Not to mention we were starting Ashworth which created serious matchup problems for us defensively. Additionally Bairstow was in the line up and we were just figuring things out with Anderson and Shulga. With Rollie back and Anderson and Shulga playing more minutes I like our chances against BSU on a neutral floor. As long as everyone stays healthy I'm comfortable playing anyone.

Is there any chance that CSU makes it up to NET30 and becomes a Q1 for us? There has been a lot of movement here at the end with teams losing in front of CSU and us. Right now they are up to 40. That would be a big boost for us if it can happen. Maybe we will be in the position that if we play CSU and we lose in the semi, that loss would push them over 31 and we would still be looking good for an at large bid. I can dream right?

EDIT:

NET Update:
CSU - 39
BSU - 43
USU - 47

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