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Mountain West Title Game Scenarios
Who has a shot at the conference title?
Contact/Follow @JeremyMauss & @MWCwire
Time to look at who can win what in the conference.
There are just two games left in Mountain West play (the season just flies by) and while there are clear paths for who can claim the Mountain and West Divisions there are still a decent amount of options for some chaos to happen.
Some of this might be far fetched but we are giving out real possibilities.
First below are the standings and ESPN’s FPI on what teams have the best odds to win the conference. Yes, that is Fresno State given a coin-flips chance to win the conference.
Mountain Division
| Team | League Record | Overall Record | Odds to win the conference |
| Utah State | 6-0 | 9-1 | 27.9 % |
| Boise State | 5-1 | 8-2 | 23.2 % |
| Wyoming | 2-4 | 4-6 | 0.0 % |
| Air Force | 2-4 | 4-6 | 0.0 % |
| Colorado State | 2-4 | 3-7 | 0.0 % |
| New Mexico | 1-5 | 3-7 | 0.0 % |
West Division
| Team | League Record | Overall Record | Odds to win the conference |
| Fresno State | 5-1 | 8-2 | 48.5% |
| Nevada | 4-2 | 6-4 | 0.0% |
| San Diego State | 4-2 | 7-3 | 0.4% |
| Hawaii | 3-3 | 6-5 | 0.0% |
| San Jose State | 1-5 | 1-9 | 0.0% |
| UNLV | 1-5 | 3-7 | 0.0% |
Let’s start with who is alive
There are five teams that have a chance to win the division: Fresno State, San Diego State, and Nevada in the West, and in the Mountain division, it is just Boise State and Utah State.
Mountain Division Scenarios
Utah State and Boise State win this weekend
This scenario would set up a winner-take-all in Boise, Idaho, between the Aggies and Broncos with the winner advancing to the Mountain West title game. Very simple.
Utah State and Boise State lose this weekend
This sets up the same scenario if both win out, but it also basically removes either team from making a New Year’s Six game.
Utah State loses to Colorado State, Boise State beats New Mexico
This would also set up a division title game. The Aggies and Broncos would each have a single loss and a showdown on the Blue Turf would decide what team would represent the Mountain Division for the conference title game.
Utah State beats Colorado State, Boise State loses to New Mexico
In this scenario, Boise State would have two league losses and be eliminated from winning the division, even if they top Utah State due to having two conference losses heading into the season finale while the Aggies would have zero league losses. Beating Utah State would give them one league loss to Boise State’s two.
