For those of you that are interested in advanced analytics, here is the current set of likelihoods for every USU possible record:

3-9 = 0%
4-8 = 2%
5-7 = 8%
6-6 = 21%
7-5 = 28%
8-4 = 25%
9-3 = 12%
10-2 = 4%
11-1 = 1%
12-0 = 0%

Overall, that's a far cry from what many of us (definitely including myself) expected coming into this season. According to SP+, we current have about an 83% chance of being bowl eligible. As far as the Mountain West is concerned, we are most likely to go 5-3 (always a benchmark for a good season), but 6+ wins is not inconceivable by any stretch.

I am heading into town for the Boise and BYU games. Looking forward to cheering on the team in person!

I'm still holding out hope we steal a game. With a 3-0 record I'm thinking 9-3 is more than a 12% reality.

I'm a little nervous for how bleak it will get on this board and in the media, when we lose our first game.

If we beat Boise on Saturday, I think our odds of winning the Mountain West Mountain Division would have to be over 90%.

IBleedAggieBlue wrote: ↑

September 22nd, 2021, 10:07 am

I'm still holding out hope we steal a game. With a 3-0 record I'm thinking 9-3 is more than a 12% reality.

I'm a little nervous for how bleak it will get on this board and in the media, when we lose our first game.

For me we are playing with house money. Through the first 5 games I was hoping 2-3. I would love to steal one of the next 2 but will not have a meltdown although a complete beat down may damper things. Just so thankful where the team is performing at.

NVAggie wrote: ↑

September 22nd, 2021, 10:34 am

You can set your calendar to the meltdown of our first loss. It will happen regardless of the circumstances.

I bet the number 1 thing people freak out about is that Anderson played the wrong QB.

Heck we should just fire Anderson now to get ahead of it.

NVAggie wrote: ↑

September 22nd, 2021, 10:34 am

You can set your calendar to the meltdown of our first loss. It will happen regardless of the circumstances.

well, losing sucks. I shouldn't be happy about losing. I agree though that the meltdowns around here are pretty overdramatic.

IBleedAggieBlue wrote: ↑

September 22nd, 2021, 10:07 am

I'm still holding out hope we steal a game. With a 3-0 record I'm thinking 9-3 is more than a 12% reality.

I'm a little nervous for how bleak it will get on this board and in the media, when we lose our first game.

We have about a 25% chance of beating Boise and the Zoobs, so that equates to about 1.5 expected losses. Over the last 7 games on our schedule that would mean we’d have to go 5.5 - 1.5, which isn’t exactly guaranteed with SJSU, WYO, and CSU presenting decent loss chances and the remainder presenting minor chances of losing.

Aggie84025 wrote: ↑

September 22nd, 2021, 10:22 am

IBleedAggieBlue wrote: ↑

September 22nd, 2021, 10:07 am

I'm still holding out hope we steal a game. With a 3-0 record I'm thinking 9-3 is more than a 12% reality.

I'm a little nervous for how bleak it will get on this board and in the media, when we lose our first game.

For me we are playing with house money. Through the first 5 games I was hoping 2-3. I would love to steal one of the next 2 but will not have a meltdown although a complete beat down may damper things. Just so thankful where the team is performing at.

I will not melt down for this overachieving team. Even if we go 3-6 over the last stretch, this season will have been a massive success. P5 win, AFA win, and bowl eligibility.

It would take a collapse of EPIC proportions to not beat NMSU and at least two of UNM, UNLV, Hawaii, and CSU.

ineptimusprime wrote: ↑

September 22nd, 2021, 2:17 pm

I will not melt down for this overachieving team. Even if we go 3-6 over the last stretch, this season will have been a massive success. P5 win, AFA win, and bowl eligibility.

It would take a collapse of EPIC proportions to not beat NMSU and at least two of UNM, UNLV, Hawaii, and CSU.

Pretty damn good for a coach replacing another coach who basically sabotaged the program for 2 years.

I expect we will be bowl eligible before we even play NMSU. We should win at least 3 of our next 5, even if we don't pull upsets against the zoobs and the tater-zoobs. UNLV and CSU are complete hot messes. UNLV is in complete rebuild and CSU is so-so on defense and inept on offense other than kicking field goals. Good luck to an underwhelming Hawaii team coming to Logan to play an 8am game (hawaii time) at 4500 ft elevation, especially with our impressive conditioning. You never want to count your chickens before they hatch but hey that's what fans do. In reality we still have a decent shot of winning our division even if we lose to Boise, though I think we'll beat them truth be told. The Donks have to play at Fresno and SDSU and host Nevada and AF. Good chance they lose at least 2 of those games.