With four weeks of football (plus the Week 0 games) behind us, it's time to start looking at BBD Stats again. Please realize that this early in the season, statistics are particularly poor, as there is a small sample size with few common opponents. In other words, we're working with a cheap imitation of reality here, but we can probably still learn a few things from taking this look.



First look at how we are doing relative to who we've played thus far is at least a little encouraging. It's no surprise to us to see that our defense is indeed struggling. Our Run D seems to be holding par, but the Pass D really needs to get it together. The good news is that our offense (despite some consistency issues) is actually running really well. Given the defences we've played thus far we are actually topping the MWC with our points and yardage production!

If you were to simply look at UConn's record, you might be led to believe that they're a pretty poor team, but if you actually take a closer look at the data you would realize that's... uh... that's.... completely true. It looks like they have an okay defense, but their offense is utterly dreadful. Hopefully this will be a good opportunity for our defense to get their feet under them and gain some confidence before going into conference play. That is, unless we seriously Aggie this up and come home with an L.

USU
Score O: 37.8 Avg; 24.1 Opp. D; 13.7 ppg better; 56.88%
Rush O: 162.0 Avg; 125.9 Opp. D; 36.1 ypg better; 28.67%
Pass O: 268.5 Avg; 220.6 Opp. D; 47.9 ypg better; 21.73%
Total O: 430.5 Avg; 346.5 Opp. D; 84.1 ypg better; 24.26%
Score D: 34.0 Avg; 29.2 Opp. O; -4.8 ppg worse; -16.44%
Rush D: 170.3 Avg; 173.1 Opp. O; 2.8 ypg better; 1.60%
Pass D: 241.8 Avg; 185.8 Opp. O; -56.0 ypg worse; -30.15%
Total D: 412.0 Avg; 358.9 Opp. O; -53.2 ypg worse; -14.81%

UConn
Score O: 13.0 Avg; 19.7 Opp. D; -6.7 ppg worse; -34.05%
Rush O: 118.0 Avg; 137.4 Opp. D; -19.4 ypg worse; -14.09%
Pass O: 168.3 Avg; 225.3 Opp. D; -57.0 ypg worse; -25.31%
Total O: 286.3 Avg; 362.6 Opp. D; -76.3 ypg worse; -21.05%
Score D: 31.0 Avg; 31.2 Opp. O; 0.2 ppg better; 0.72%
Rush D: 153.3 Avg; 167.5 Opp. O; 14.2 ypg better; 8.46%
Pass D: 207.8 Avg; 222.7 Opp. O; 15.0 ypg better; 6.72%
Total D: 361.0 Avg; 390.2 Opp. O; 29.2 ypg better; 7.48%

And the official BBD BS prediction:
USU - 41.11 (168.61 rush, 254.61 pass, 423.23 total)
UConn - 22.54 (133.09 rush, 204.49 pass, 337.58 total)


Conference Category Rankings (with UConn included)

Score O: USU-1st; UConn-13th
Rush O: USU-2nd; UConn-10th
Pass O: USU-3rd; UConn-11th
Total O: USU-1st; UConn-13th

Score D: USU-12th; UConn-7th
Rush D: USU-9th; UConn-6th
Pass D: USU-13th; UConn-5th
Total D: USU-13th; UConn-7th

Overall Rankings (score and yards combined differential)

1. Air Force (+103.54%)
2. SJSU (+70.48%)
3. Boise St (+55.80%)
4. Fresno St (+50.04%)
5. USU (+49.89%)
6. UNLV (+37.38%)
7. Wyoming (+28.58%)
8. New Mexico (-0.93%)
9. Hawai'i (-5.29%)
10. SDSU (-7.71%)
11. Colorado St (-25.00%)
12. Nevada (-25.90%)
---- UConn (-46.90%)

Thank you!

Our defense has been terrible.

NVAggie wrote: ↑

September 28th, 2023, 9:09 am

Our defense has been terrible.

We've been gashed that's for sure. We'll make UCONN look better than they are.

We are getting no pressure up front and our DBs are not understanding coverages. Add on to that linebackers that aren't in position and you have a mess.

NVAggie wrote: ↑

September 28th, 2023, 9:26 am

We are getting no pressure up front and our DBs are not understanding coverages. Add on to that linebackers that aren't in position and you have a mess.

Our corners have been playing way too conservative, JMU took advantage of that.

They had 10 yards on the sideline any time they wanted it. I thought I was watching Brent Guy defense.

ViAggie wrote: ↑

September 28th, 2023, 9:10 am

NVAggie wrote: ↑

September 28th, 2023, 9:09 am

Our defense has been terrible.

We've been gashed that's for sure. We'll make UCONN look better than they are.

The good news is that the UConn offense will make our defense look better than they are, too.

BigBlueDart wrote: ↑

September 28th, 2023, 10:05 am

ViAggie wrote: ↑

September 28th, 2023, 9:10 am

NVAggie wrote: ↑

September 28th, 2023, 9:09 am

Our defense has been terrible.

We've been gashed that's for sure. We'll make UCONN look better than they are.

The good news is that the UConn offense will make our defense look better than they are, too.

True

I knew our defense was bad, but 13th out of 12 teams is REALLY bad! Maybe something of a Freudian slip?
Blake mentioned that we're going to be significantly outsized against UConn...weight, height, and length. That doesn't bode well for us IMO. In theory we should then have the edge in speed and quickness. But we haven't seemed to do well in games where we are significantly smaller than our opponent. I hope we can do it here and let our offense shine, especially...

ShowMeAggie wrote: ↑

September 28th, 2023, 12:48 pm

I knew our defense was bad, but 13th out of 12 teams is REALLY bad! Maybe something of a Freudian slip?
Blake mentioned that we're going to be significantly outsized against UConn...weight, height, and length. That doesn't bode well for us IMO. In theory we should then have the edge in speed and quickness. But we haven't seemed to do well in games where we are significantly smaller than our opponent. I hope we can do it here and let our offense shine, especially...

The 13th place was including UConn in the rankings. Also, the number for that (while still bad) is not as low as I've seen it previous years, at least as the season progresses. Either defenses in the league are better across the board, or things will normalize further into the season and there may be teams scoring lower on defense. Or who knows, maybe we just keep getting worse and have an overall defensive score around -80% (currently about -30%).

NVAggie wrote: ↑

September 28th, 2023, 9:26 am

We are getting no pressure up front and our DBs are not understanding coverages. Add on to that linebackers that aren't in position and you have a mess.

That is on the DB coordinator and his communication both with his players and the position coaches. I've said it before but its not that complicated. Each individual player only has a few simple rotations they need to understand to cover any stunt, blitz on your part or motion formations of the offense and the coaches need to help each guy to understand those simple assignments on D calls and how they respond when a guy goes in motion away or to you or how you cover different rotations. ITS NOT HARD.

I acknowledge that zone gets a bit more complicated and if the coaches and players are struggling to get that go man assignments until you figure it out.

I guess what I'm saying is that while an overall scheme may be complicated, the reads and calls for each position are not and its up to the coaches, particularly with the turnover and lack of experience, to make sure each guy understands that going into the game and to pull him aside and emphasize it when there is a mistake. Each player also needs to understand exactly how important his role is in that process and how exactly he will be in a position to use his talents and make a big play when he sticks with the assignment rules for his position. When everyone is dialed into his role and believes in their role in the scheme things will start to change. I thought Iowa showed that there is talent there although maybe not enough up front.

I can only say that #1 for jmu was fast.


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Statistics suck.