• USU, Boise, FSU, SJSU, SDSU, UNLV, NewMex, Hawaii, Nevada, Wyoming AF, CSU

Harcher wrote: ↑

January 12th, 2024, 11:11 am

Here are some tidbits gleaned from <https://247sports.com/>
Transfer Portal Rank in order

• USU, Boise, FSU, SJSU, SDSU, UNLV, NewMex, Hawaii, Nevada, Wyoming AF, CSU

I scrolled through from 1 to 650 players ranked, all but handful were transfers to Power Conf teams
There were maybe 5 players who transferred P5 to G5 below a player rank of 500. (Boise and Fresno had one very high ranked - which are outliers) (Again, i scrolled through he list, so there could be a missed player or two)
It is at rank 600 or so that transfers to G5 begin to be common...

By 247's Points ranking
Marshall = 17.37 Charlotte = 16.82 Eastern Michigan 15.07 Southern Miss = 13.42 Memphis 12.73
USU = 11.69
Tulane 11.01
North Tex 10.55

Mississippi has score of 76 as top in nation,
Utes are 45th, with 30 points
BYU is 55 with 21 points
USU is 71 with 11 points

the answer to the question of 'could Aggies get a better QB than Bryson Barnes' is "probably not"
Also this shows the Aggies are more focused on this method to build program than other MWC peers.
But one of the images below is from 247 showing the Non-Transfer Portal recruiting rankings - USU is 9th in MWC and significantly below #8 Hawaii in 247 point/measuring scheme. (And AFA doesn't really count...) USU is very poor in this metric - Only Nevada (close in points) and New Mexico - (extremely low - 2 commits) are below the Aggies

So how to 'combine' these techniques for recruiting? If you go by the 247 point system, it barely matters what you do in transfer portal. If you go by just counting stars, then it moves the teams around a bit (I did cursory count)
* CSU, Boise, UNLV, FSU are still on top of that combined list
* USU moves to the bottom of middle of pack with about 50% 3-star and above; SDSU drops to mid tier, SJSU, Hawaii and Wyoming are mid)
* Nevada and New Mexico are still in bottom.

Then consider: Is a 3 star player in Transfer portal a known entity and hence a better recruit than HS? (What is the success rate of high school 3-stars?) No doubt better recruitment rankings correlates with better program performance. But also true is that USU has outperformed their recruitment ranking position over the years. I was hopeful of a successful USU strategy to become a top-tier G5 destination for known-entity 3stars to come to USU for 2+ years. but it might be boiling down to the same situation as before the transfer portal/NIL: USU is bottom third in MWC in recruiting. (But i haven't looked at USU's recruiting position over the last 10 years - what do you know?)

Hopefully the images work below for more info.

G5 - Teams ranked above USU for Transfer Portal Activity


MWC - Transfer Portal Recruiting Details


USU Transfer Portal - Incoming


MWC - Non Transfer Recruiting Details

Harcher wrote: ↑

January 12th, 2024, 11:11 am

Here are some tidbits gleaned from <https://247sports.com/>
Transfer Portal Rank in order

• USU, Boise, FSU, SJSU, SDSU, UNLV, NewMex, Hawaii, Nevada, Wyoming AF, CSU

I scrolled through from 1 to 650 players ranked, all but handful were transfers to Power Conf teams
There were maybe 5 players who transferred P5 to G5 below a player rank of 500. (Boise and Fresno had one very high ranked - which are outliers) (Again, i scrolled through he list, so there could be a missed player or two)
It is at rank 600 or so that transfers to G5 begin to be common...

By 247's Points ranking
Marshall = 17.37 Charlotte = 16.82 Eastern Michigan 15.07 Southern Miss = 13.42 Memphis 12.73
USU = 11.69
Tulane 11.01
North Tex 10.55

Mississippi has score of 76 as top in nation,
Utes are 45th, with 30 points
BYU is 55 with 21 points
USU is 71 with 11 points

the answer to the question of 'could Aggies get a better QB than Bryson Barnes' is "probably not"
Also this shows the Aggies are more focused on this method to build program than other MWC peers.
But one of the images below is from 247 showing the Non-Transfer Portal recruiting rankings - USU is 9th in MWC and significantly below #8 Hawaii in 247 point/measuring scheme. (And AFA doesn't really count...) USU is very poor in this metric - Only Nevada (close in points) and New Mexico - (extremely low - 2 commits) are below the Aggies

So how to 'combine' these techniques for recruiting? If you go by the 247 point system, it barely matters what you do in transfer portal. If you go by just counting stars, then it moves the teams around a bit (I did cursory count)
* CSU, Boise, UNLV, FSU are still on top of that combined list
* USU moves to the bottom of middle of pack with about 50% 3-star and above; SDSU drops to mid tier, SJSU, Hawaii and Wyoming are mid)
* Nevada and New Mexico are still in bottom.

Then consider: Is a 3 star player in Transfer portal a known entity and hence a better recruit than HS? (What is the success rate of high school 3-stars?) No doubt better recruitment rankings correlates with better program performance. But also true is that USU has outperformed their recruitment ranking position over the years. I was hopeful of a successful USU strategy to become a top-tier G5 destination for known-entity 3stars to come to USU for 2+ years. but it might be boiling down to the same situation as before the transfer portal/NIL: USU is bottom third in MWC in recruiting. (But i haven't looked at USU's recruiting position over the last 10 years - what do you know?)

Hopefully the images work below for more info.

G5 - Teams ranked above USU for Transfer Portal Activity


MWC - Transfer Portal Recruiting Details


USU Transfer Portal - Incoming


MWC - Non Transfer Recruiting Details

aggies22 wrote: ↑

January 12th, 2024, 11:56 am

A lot of those rankings deal in volume. Utah State has FOUR high school signings. All four have three-star ratings with an average score of 83.75. When half your class is transfer portal guys, you aren't going to score very high in this category.

This is how serious 247sports is about Utah State. We currently have NINE JuCo commits/signings. 247 has EIGHT listed. Golden West CC safety Marquis Brown isn't even listed as a commit even though he committed to Utah State back in November. SIX of the EIGHT JuCo dudes that they list DO NOT even have a star rating. That's because 247 is too lazy to bother evaluating and rating our players. EDGE rush end Marlin Dean has a rating because he started his career at Georgia and the recruiting experts NEVER expected him to end up at Utah State.

We currently have TWELVE transfer portal additions. 247 lists us with NINE. They DO NOT list Texas State EDGE rush end Bryce "Butch" Cage, Buffalo linebacker Shaun Dolac, and Oklahoma cornerback DJ Graham. OTHERWISE, our transfer portal ranking that is currently LEADING the Mountain West Conference would be HIGHER if those three were added.

Harcher wrote: ↑

January 12th, 2024, 2:43 pm

thanks for the info aggies22,

So is all of the 247 data dubious for the MCW? They show CSU with 19 players signed, 19 players rated. Or has CSU moved to the status where they are properly tracked by 247?

With your summary below we show better than the 247 data. That's good.

Can you offer where you think we land in recruiting with respect to our peers? I used 247 data and concluded "bottom of the mid pack" If all or some of the MWC teams get the same attention by 247 (or other ranking sites) then there is no way to compare.

USUFANS seems generally grumpy about Bryson signing. I think it is reasonable signing - using 247 data and some opinion of our current QB situation. Coop is injured and not top tier. Hillstead needs a year to redshirt and heal up and while showing he's a gamer, is not proven to be capable yet. . So finding a competing backup out of the pile of 7 known players (Aggie22 list) available is good move. Bryson doesn't appear to be a star, but good for what we can expect to obtain. I think USUFANS general perspective is "competition at all positions is good" yet plenty of consensus is that adding to QB room is "selling out Coop" or disrespecting him. Maybe it is just that we got Iowa QB and that is enough. I think getting 2 QBs out of 25 recruits this year (I actually don't know the totals per year anymore..) is reasonable. It would be better if one was a freshman - but that dude left of for Michigan state at last minute. So, you do what you have to.

And finally, and to repeat from OP, it appears to me that recruiting from transfer portal is better than high school kids. USU could prosper by making that work with an average of transfers having 2 years. That's the amount of time freshman contribute at high level so it is the same difference in amount of playing time provided. The difference being the transfers are more proven as useful Jr/sr. so i'm estimating 10 3-star Transfers result in 8-9 MWC-level contributors and 10 3-star HS recruits result in 3-5 MWC-level contributors. The other end of the difference is you wont EVER get Jordan Love via transfer portal... You'd have to win that lottery again as HS recruit, and then pay him... IF we could afford it via NIL$. (its possible we will NEVER be able to keep a Jordan Love...) Hence the transfer portal is the ideal plan for USU.

Do you see JUCO route identical to Transfer Portal route - that is we get seasoned players with 2 years left to play?

aggies22 wrote: ↑

January 12th, 2024, 11:56 am

A lot of those rankings deal in volume. Utah State has FOUR high school signings. All four have three-star ratings with an average score of 83.75. When half your class is transfer portal guys, you aren't going to score very high in this category.

This is how serious 247sports is about Utah State. We currently have NINE JuCo commits/signings. 247 has EIGHT listed. Golden West CC safety Marquis Brown isn't even listed as a commit even though he committed to Utah State back in November. SIX of the EIGHT JuCo dudes that they list DO NOT even have a star rating. That's because 247 is too lazy to bother evaluating and rating our players. EDGE rush end Marlin Dean has a rating because he started his career at Georgia and the recruiting experts NEVER expected him to end up at Utah State.

We currently have TWELVE transfer portal additions. 247 lists us with NINE. They DO NOT list Texas State EDGE rush end Bryce "Butch" Cage, Buffalo linebacker Shaun Dolac, and Oklahoma cornerback DJ Graham. OTHERWISE, our transfer portal ranking that is currently LEADING the Mountain West Conference would be HIGHER if those three were added.