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USU Football : Returning Production
- AggiesForever
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USU Football : Returning Production
According to ESPN's Bill Connelly, creator of the SP+ ranking system, USU returns 67 percent of its production from 2023 in 2024, good for 38th overall in the nation. The Aggies return 63% of its offensive production, good for 61st in the country, and 71% of its defensive production, good for 24th in the country.
In the Connelly SP+ scheme of things, the more production you return, the better the showing your team is expected to make. It's no coincidence that the 2021 team returned a ton of production, with strategic transfer portal players mixed in to create a team that won the Mountain West Conference and the Jimmy Kimmel Bowl vs. Oregon State. Of course, the next year, after key graduations and some of the incoming people didn't work out quite as well, we fell back to 6-7, followed by the disastrous defensive defections in 2023 and another 6-7 record. So, with a little luck, 2024 could be 2021 again.
At number 38, USU leads the Mountain West Conference, followed right behind at 39 by Colorado State, who also returns 67% overall, with 72% (32) on offense and 62% (58) on defense.
After USU and CSU, there's a bit of a gap, after which you have Fresno State at number 52 with 64% overall, 80% (14) and 48% (106), followed by UNLV at 58 with 63% overall returning, and 63% (59) and 63% (53); *Wyoming at number 63 with, get this, 63% overall returning, and 63% (59) and 63% (53). Finally, at number 79, *Nevada checks in with 59% overall returning, and O/D splits of 62% (65) and 55% (79).
Many of the top teams from last year in the conference have lost major contributors, however. *Boise State checks in at #81 with 59% of its production returning, 46% on offense (108), and 71% (23) on defense. *San Diego State checks in a #108, with 46% percent overall, and 49% (102) and 43% (114); Next is *SJSU at 118 with 42%, 32% (127) and 52% (91); *New Mexico at 123 and 40% with 26% (131) and 54% (81); and Air Force dead last at 134, with 25% of its production returning, and 28% (130) and 23% (134). Asterisks indicate new coaches.
It will be interesting to see how recruiting affects these numbers. USU has been dinged in a number of recruiting profiles because of our small high school class, and not as many transfers as in the past. But we didn't need them, as we had so much returning production.
In the Connelly SP+ scheme of things, the more production you return, the better the showing your team is expected to make. It's no coincidence that the 2021 team returned a ton of production, with strategic transfer portal players mixed in to create a team that won the Mountain West Conference and the Jimmy Kimmel Bowl vs. Oregon State. Of course, the next year, after key graduations and some of the incoming people didn't work out quite as well, we fell back to 6-7, followed by the disastrous defensive defections in 2023 and another 6-7 record. So, with a little luck, 2024 could be 2021 again.
At number 38, USU leads the Mountain West Conference, followed right behind at 39 by Colorado State, who also returns 67% overall, with 72% (32) on offense and 62% (58) on defense.
After USU and CSU, there's a bit of a gap, after which you have Fresno State at number 52 with 64% overall, 80% (14) and 48% (106), followed by UNLV at 58 with 63% overall returning, and 63% (59) and 63% (53); *Wyoming at number 63 with, get this, 63% overall returning, and 63% (59) and 63% (53). Finally, at number 79, *Nevada checks in with 59% overall returning, and O/D splits of 62% (65) and 55% (79).
Many of the top teams from last year in the conference have lost major contributors, however. *Boise State checks in at #81 with 59% of its production returning, 46% on offense (108), and 71% (23) on defense. *San Diego State checks in a #108, with 46% percent overall, and 49% (102) and 43% (114); Next is *SJSU at 118 with 42%, 32% (127) and 52% (91); *New Mexico at 123 and 40% with 26% (131) and 54% (81); and Air Force dead last at 134, with 25% of its production returning, and 28% (130) and 23% (134). Asterisks indicate new coaches.
It will be interesting to see how recruiting affects these numbers. USU has been dinged in a number of recruiting profiles because of our small high school class, and not as many transfers as in the past. But we didn't need them, as we had so much returning production.
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Re: USU Football : Returning Production
Did Washington St lose a tone of production like Oregon St did, or did they manage to keep things intact somehow?
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Re: USU Football : Returning Production
They somehow kept things together pretty well. I still think USU wins that game.EngineeringAggie wrote: ↑February 14th, 2024, 8:53 amDid Washington St lose a tone of production like Oregon St did, or did they manage to keep things intact somehow?
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Re: USU Football : Returning Production
If there is one thing I have learned from this basketball season - returning production in college sports doesn't mean much.
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Re: USU Football : Returning Production
If Cauthen was returning absolutely not a good thing. With the new DC coming in i think it will improve quite a bit.
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Re: USU Football : Returning Production
Washington State lost their starting QB in the portal.EngineeringAggie wrote: ↑February 14th, 2024, 8:53 amDid Washington St lose a tone of production like Oregon St did, or did they manage to keep things intact somehow?
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Re: USU Football : Returning Production
This is good news considering that 24-7 Sports ranked our 2024 recruiting class 119th.
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Re: USU Football : Returning Production
Football and basketball are very different in this regard given then number of players needed to field a good football team and the propensity for injury. Apples and oranges.
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Re: USU Football : Returning Production
Is that because they only rank high school players coming in, and not transfer portal or juco guys? Because that would make sense since we only signed a handful of hs guys
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Re: USU Football : Returning Production
I was very pleased with the recruiting class. Hard to see how we could've done a lot better.
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Re: USU Football : Returning Production
Me too.AggieFBObsession wrote: ↑February 14th, 2024, 10:36 pmI was very pleased with the recruiting class. Hard to see how we could've done a lot better.
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Re: USU Football : Returning Production
Marlin Dean. Remember the name.AggieFBObsession wrote: ↑February 14th, 2024, 10:36 pmI was very pleased with the recruiting class. Hard to see how we could've done a lot better.
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Re: USU Football : Returning Production
He is going to be a star in the mwaggies22 wrote: ↑February 15th, 2024, 11:19 pmMarlin Dean. Remember the name.AggieFBObsession wrote: ↑February 14th, 2024, 10:36 pmI was very pleased with the recruiting class. Hard to see how we could've done a lot better.
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Re: USU Football : Returning Production
I believe (could be wrong) this is partly due to the number of hs kids. Think they are usually given star rather than a jc and sometimes transfer recruit.