In between Roy's rantings about Abel Porter and the weaknesses of Dante Exum, we've had some decent Basketball discussion about the matchup with BYU. I think this matchup favors BYU, but would not be surprised with an Aggie victory. A few thoughts on the keys for the game:

Perimeter defense: BYU shoots a lot of 3s and makes a lot of 3s. They have several really solid long range shooters. To my untrained eye this season our perimeter defense has been lacking. Big player to watch here is Brito. If he can shut his man down, we have a chance to limit their open looks and focus more on Childs.

Yoeli Childs: I think he's going to have a field day. Queta isn't fully healthy so Dorius will have to play a lot of minutes. If we can find a way to slow him down, we can win. If Queta is even 10% better this game than last, that really helps us defensively. We also need to get Childs in foul trouble to limit his minutes.

Bean + Anderson: This is where we have the advantage. Their guards aren't big, strong or quick enough to guard Bean. Bean presents lots of second chance opportunities for us with his rebounding. Anderson is very skilled offensively and will cause problems for them.

Merrill's health+ Getting more than one shooter going for USU: Merrill is going to get his. If he's healthier and can move better laterally on that ankle, that's a huge plus for us. Besides him we need one other guy to catch fire from 3. Miller, Brito, or Porter are all options. We need to put up points in abundance in this one.


The only outcome that would surprise me in this game is a USU blowout.

Really nice breakdown. My keys.

-Merrill has to be lights out and give us ~25 points.
-Bean needs a double/double.
-Andersen needs to return the way he was playing prior to the last 3 games.
-Perimeter defense and prevent open 3's.
-Have to play solid defense on Childs. If we double team him the guards/small forward better close fast to prevent open 3's.

Do they play childs at the 4 or 5? I think Anderson and bean match up well with Yoeli.

I really can’t stand watching the angry hobbit looking man. He really looks ticked out on the court.

BYU loves to speed teams up on the offensive end, forcing quick shots and a lack of set plays. In order to be be competitive in the game, the Aggies need to slow down, take good shots, and share the ball. I think the following stats illustrate this point --

During Sam Merrill's career against BYU, Sam has made 2 out of 13 shots (15%) from the three point line and the team over that same period has made 16 out of 61 shots (26%), both of which are obviously far below Sam's and the team's averages. In my opinion, Sam is really good and taking "good shots," whereas Miller and Brito tend to throw up a few ill advised shots per game. BYU would love nothing more than a box score showing Miller going something like 2/11, Brito 1/6, and Sam something like 2/4.

Also during that same period of time against BYU, the Aggies have made an assist on just 36% of made field goals. For comparative purposes, the team has made an assist on over 61% of made field goals during Coach Smith's tenure. Porter, Merrill, and Brito are key here. They need to slow down and make that one extra pass to get the ball into the right shooter's hands at the right time. If the team has a total of 6 assists again like last year, it will be a really ugly night.

Finally, our not-so-secret weapon, Bean. He hasn't played BYU yet. They know who he is, but his looks are deceiving. The team needs Bean to go all out, avoid foul trouble, and cause one or more BYU players to lose their cool. Bean's grin after almost every play has a way of doing it . . .

I’m not sure we can count on much offensively from Anderson until he’s able to get back to playing the stretch 4. Banging against these 5s really tires out the legs and I think that’s why we’ve seen his game suffer lately. Spot minutes with the shorter lineup is ok, but these extended stretches are killer. It’s too bad Grootfaam couldn’t at least be good enough to come out and play 10-15 min. What a wasted scholarship.

Ken Pomeroy said its USU's defense versus BYU's offense that is the key, plus the return of Neemias Queta. KenPom says if Queta can provide 20 quality minutes on defense, the Aggies can be tough for the Y. BYU reminds me a lot of Fresno State . . . unconscionable firing up of 3 point shots above all else. They were largely unguarded against Southern Utah and still only won by 5 points. And we're outrebounding them by 10 a game. So I think if the Aggies come out and play some defense, especially along the perimeter, we have a good chance. Anything Queta gives us inside is a bonus! BYU is favored by 1 pointy on a neutral floor, which makes it a pick-em. May the toughest bunch of SOB's on the floor prevail!

I feel like the key to this is limiting second chance points for them. They're going to get their 3s, they shoot it too well to not to, but we can't give them extra chances at it. We have to make them pay when they miss. I think the rebounding game is advantage Aggies.

hipsterdoofus21 wrote: ↑

December 12th, 2019, 10:22 am

It’s too bad Grootfaam couldn’t at least be good enough to come out and play 10-15 min. What a wasted scholarship.

I think Grootfaam could give us 5 hard fouls to burn. Might be his biggest contribution of the year!

My perception (which could be off) is that our defense has been good, but not great this year. I have no numbers to support this, just a painful memory of Ford (St. Mary's) and Mays (LSU) going bananas from 3 against us.

We need to go in there with some confidence, that we are the better team and we are going to play the game our way. It seems to me in years past that when we play this game, it for some reason gets into our heads and we don't play our best ball, kind of takes us out of who we are (as was mentioned above). Other than this I think the keys are to out rebound them on both ends of the floor, take good 3 point shots, hit our free throws and not turn the ball over. And lastly be aggressive at attacking Childs, see if we can get him off the court with foul trouble. GO AGGIES!!

HPAGGIE wrote: ↑

December 12th, 2019, 10:56 am

We need to go in there with some confidence, that we are the better team and we are going to play the game our way. It seems to me in years past that when we play this game, it for some reason gets into our heads and we don't play our best ball.

I absolutely agree. In a rivalry game this is mission critical and I've also noticed this.

HPAGGIE wrote: ↑

December 12th, 2019, 10:56 am

We need to go in there with some confidence, that we are the better team and we are going to play the game our way. It seems to me in years past that when we play this game, it for some reason gets into our heads and we don't play our best ball, kind of takes us out of who we are (as was mentioned above). Other than this I think the keys are to out rebound them on both ends of the floor, take good 3 point shots, hit our free throws and not turn the ball over. And lastly be aggressive at attacking Childs, see if we can get him off the court with foul trouble. GO AGGIES!!

Definitely! I feel the same way and have posted this several times over the years.

Coaching. Ours is better. I’ll just leave this here.



Interesting comments to say the least even in sarcasm.

Aggie19 wrote: ↑

December 12th, 2019, 10:40 am

I feel like the key to this is limiting second chance points for them. They're going to get their 3s, they shoot it too well to not to, but we can't give them extra chances at it. We have to make them pay when they miss. I think the rebounding game is advantage Aggies.

True, and three point shots lead to long rebounds, so it's going to take everyone.

Madmartigan wrote: ↑

December 12th, 2019, 10:54 am

My perception (which could be off) is that our defense has been good, but not great this year. I have no numbers to support this, just a painful memory of Ford (St. Mary's) and Mays (LSU) going bananas from 3 against us.

I think that goes along with not having a healthy Queta. When Queta is healthy and backing up our perimeter guys they can play up on their guy with less worry about him driving because Queta will clean it up. With Anderson playing the 5, or even Dorius, there is no rim protection so we've been less free to pressure the shooters and run them off the line.

We'll have to play our best game of the year Saturday to win. BYU has the advantage of having played at Vivint and they'll have a bigger crowd. Queta being super rusty and out of shape is brutal going into this match up. I'm not sure how our bigs can handle penetrating guards and Yoeli. We'll need to hit some threes to stay in this one.

hipsterdoofus21 wrote: ↑

December 12th, 2019, 11:35 am

Aggie19 wrote: ↑

December 12th, 2019, 10:40 am

I feel like the key to this is limiting second chance points for them. They're going to get their 3s, they shoot it too well to not to, but we can't give them extra chances at it. We have to make them pay when they miss. I think the rebounding game is advantage Aggies.

True, and three point shots lead to long rebounds, so it's going to take everyone.

Madmartigan wrote: ↑

December 12th, 2019, 10:54 am

My perception (which could be off) is that our defense has been good, but not great this year. I have no numbers to support this, just a painful memory of Ford (St. Mary's) and Mays (LSU) going bananas from 3 against us.

I think that goes along with not having a healthy Queta. When Queta is healthy and backing up our perimeter guys they can play up on their guy with less worry about him driving because Queta will clean it up. With Anderson playing the 5, or even Dorius, there is no rim protection so we've been less free to pressure the shooters and run them off the line.

We'll have to play our best game of the year Saturday to win. BYU has the advantage of having played at Vivint and they'll have a bigger crowd. Queta being super rusty and out of shape is brutal going into this match up. I'm not sure how our bigs can handle penetrating guards and Yoeli. We'll need to hit some threes to stay in this one.

I hadn't thought of the Queta factor on defense, but you are so right. He was what made our elite defense last year possible. I hope he's healthier this game.

Madmartigan wrote: ↑

December 12th, 2019, 10:54 am

My perception (which could be off) is that our defense has been good, but not great this year. I have no numbers to support this, just a painful memory of Ford (St. Mary's) and Mays (LSU) going bananas from 3 against us.

I hope we are abel to fight over picks and not go under leaving the 3 point shooters wide open, like what happened with Ford and Mays. To me this will be key.

They did a good job on Sam last year and only Quetta stepped up. Bean will get his but we need at least one of MIller, Britto, or Anderson to step up and have a big game.

If Merrill has a big game on top of of that the good guys win by at least 8

I posted this in another thread several days agao but thought I would post it again here. These are my thoughts on the game:

If BYU is hitting their three-pointers, it could be a long night for the Aggies. We will most definitely "monster" Childs in the post (with a combination of Queta, Bean, Anderson, and Dorius). The perimeter players are going to get a workout chasing the passes around the horn as we double Childs on the block. We will be essentially trying to guard 4 guys with 3.

Childs creates a problem in that he can shoot from the outside. If Queta or Dorius gets pulled away from the basket to defend Childs from shooting beyond the free throw line, they are not quick enough to keep up with him driving to the basket. We may be forced into our "small" lineup a lot in this game, especially if Queta is not in condition to play extended minutes and is not effective on the offensive end of the floor. I see Bean guarding Childs a lot this game. If we can't rely on Queta to take advantage of his size by scoring around the basket, I don't know how much he will help in this game.

I think Merrill can guard Toolson effectively. Porter is going to have his hands full trying to keep up with Haws. It's usually the "other" BYU guy that has a career night against the Aggies. Some role player seems to go off on us offensively every game and then does nothing the rest of the year.

If the Aggies shoot like they have in the last couple of games, they will get blown out. They must hit their shots. The game plan had better be to get Bean, Anderson, and Queta the ball down low on nearly every possession. That's where the Aggies have the advantage and that's where they will win the game. If this turns into a three-point competition, Aggies lose. Merrill will be able to drive to the basket on whoever they put on him. Hopefully he gets the calls that he has not been getting when he goes to the floor. He could put them in foul trouble himself. He is too big for any of their wing players to guard him on the drive. I would suggest we consider posting him up on the block and pulling the 4 and 5 men away from the basket. I think Merrill could be effective there.

aggies22 wrote: ↑

December 12th, 2019, 11:16 am

HPAGGIE wrote: ↑

December 12th, 2019, 10:56 am

We need to go in there with some confidence, that we are the better team and we are going to play the game our way. It seems to me in years past that when we play this game, it for some reason gets into our heads and we don't play our best ball, kind of takes us out of who we are (as was mentioned above). Other than this I think the keys are to out rebound them on both ends of the floor, take good 3 point shots, hit our free throws and not turn the ball over. And lastly be aggressive at attacking Childs, see if we can get him off the court with foul trouble. GO AGGIES!!

Definitely! I feel the same way and have posted this several times over the years.

This is a solid point. We have a good team and they can go in and beat them. They need to have the confidence and not go into the game scared based on what has happened the last several years. BYU already played there last week so they are familiar with the building and the rims so they already have that advantage. If we go in scared or timid we will lose. We need to go with a very large chip on our shoulder play balls out. There should be no reason to not see our guys on the floor for every loose ball.

Madmartigan wrote: ↑

December 12th, 2019, 10:54 am

My perception (which could be off) is that our defense has been good, but not great this year. I have no numbers to support this, just a painful memory of Ford (St. Mary's) and Mays (LSU) going bananas from 3 against us.

Utah State currently sits at 73rd out of 353 DI basketball programs in Opponents' 3P% at .296.

I'm not going to parse through the entire list, but here are the Aggie opponents this season who have better perimeter defensive numbers than the Aggies:

SDSU - .269 (14th)
Montana St. - .271 (19th)
Denver - .277 (33rd)
Nevada - .283 (44th)
BYU-P - .292 (67th)

That's it.

hipsterdoofus21 wrote: ↑

December 12th, 2019, 11:35 am

I think that goes along with not having a healthy Queta. When Queta is healthy and backing up our perimeter guys they can play up on their guy with less worry about him driving because Queta will clean it up.

The same should be true for Kuba. Kuba's defensive numbers this season are VERY good. In 107 minutes of play so far this season (so limited), his DRtg is 78.2, which means opposing teams are scoring only an estimated 78.2 points per 100 possessions due to Kuba's defensive efforts. By way of comparison, DPOY Queta's DRtg last season was 88.8.

Kuba's BLK% (12.9) is also somewhat shockingly higher than Queta's was last year (10.4) or this year (11.5). BLK% is an estimate of the percentage of opponent 2-point FGAs blocked by the player while he is on the court.

Can't wait until Kuba is back and healthy. He has done VERY well defensively so far.

By comparison, in 109 minutes of play, Dorius's DRtg is 84.7 (very good, but only 6th on the team) and his BLK% is a pitiful 3.2 (pitiful for a 7-footer).

WannabeAgAlum wrote: ↑

December 12th, 2019, 11:48 am

I hope we are abel to fight over picks and not go under leaving the 3 point shooters wide open, like what happened with Ford and Mays. To me this will be key.

Was that a subtle slam on a particular perimeter defender? If so, well done!

Yossarian wrote: ↑

December 12th, 2019, 11:54 am

The game plan had better be to get Bean, Anderson, and Queta the ball down low on nearly every possession. That's where the Aggies have the advantage and that's where they will win the game. .... He is too big for any of their wing players to guard him on the drive. I would suggest we consider posting him up on the block and pulling the 4 and 5 men away from the basket. I think Merrill could be effective there.

Your first point seems inconsistent with your second point here -- unless you are suggesting they switch things up occasionally and let Merrill post up periodically with no other Aggies down low. I don't thinks this works. Anyone defending Queta, Bean, or Dorius can easily slough off on their assignment if those player slid out on the perimeter to double Merrill down low. Plus it takes our most effective weapon -- Bean's interior play/hustle/rebounding/everything -- away from his effective zone.

BTW -- overall thread comment: it is nice to finally have a thread with some real substance, thought, analysis, relevant opinion, and insights. Too many recent threads have either started as or turned into something ridiculous. Kudos to madmartigan!!

My only complaint is I wasn't initially certain to which BYU the OP was referring. In the future, I would ask that all posters discussing any one of the outposts of God's One True School (GOTS) please specify BYU-I, BYU-H, or BYU-P. Are there others? There may be, but those are the only three I can come up with without Google -- which I don't care enough to do.

ChicAggie wrote: ↑

December 12th, 2019, 12:41 pm

BTW -- overall thread comment: it is nice to finally have a thread with some real substance, thought, analysis, relevant opinion, and insights. Too many recent threads have either started as or turned into something ridiculous. Kudos to madmartigan!!

My only complaint is I wasn't initially certain to which BYU the OP was referring. In the future, I would ask that all posters discussing any one of the outposts of God's One True School (GOTS) please specify BYU-I, BYU-H, or BYU-P. Are there others? There may be, but those are the only three I can come up with without Google -- which I don't care enough to do.

the point you make in the first paragraph and then doing the very thing you say you don't like in the first paragraph, in the second paragraph, is exceptional. I will simply refer to BYU-P as "The Lord's School in Provo" from henceforth.

And seriously, we have far too little actual sports discussion in this board. It almost always devolves into something else.

I don't think we win this game and I hope I'm wrong. A healthy Queta would make all the difference.

ChicAggie wrote: ↑

December 12th, 2019, 12:32 pm

WannabeAgAlum wrote: ↑

December 12th, 2019, 11:48 am

I hope we are abel to fight over picks and not go under leaving the 3 point shooters wide open, like what happened with Ford and Mays. To me this will be key.

Was that a subtle slam on a particular perimeter defender? If so, well done!

You are too kind. I was just highlighting something that I haven't seen any re porter pick up on consistently this season.

Madmartigan wrote: ↑

December 12th, 2019, 12:45 pm

the point you make in the first paragraph and then doing the very thing you say you don't like in the first paragraph, in the second paragraph, is exceptional. I will simply refer to BYU-P as "The Lord's School in Provo" from henceforth.

And seriously, we have far too little actual sports discussion in this board. It almost always devolves into something else.

I don't think we win this game and I hope I'm wrong. A healthy Queta would make all the difference.

Point one: I'm glad you caught that. Didn't think anyone would notice.

Point two: totally agree.

Point three: I feel the same way. If Queta can play at 95% effectiveness for 20-25 minutes, we have a chance . . . . Without that, we'll have to be hitting on at least four cylinders (near-peak production from Merrill, Bean, Brito, and Anderson).

Bean on Childs, all night long. Let the man do his work of death. Childs will head straight to the NBA right after this game if all goes as planned, in search of easier competition.

flying_scotsman2.0 wrote: ↑

December 12th, 2019, 1:14 pm

Bean on Childs, all night long. Let the man do his work of death. Childs will head straight to the NBA right after this game if all goes as planned, in search of easier competition.

I don't think a Bean vs Childs matchup would go in our favor. Childs is a man child. I like Anderson/Queta on him more.

Madmartigan wrote: ↑

December 12th, 2019, 10:54 am

My perception (which could be off) is that our defense has been good, but not great this year. I have no numbers to support this, just a painful memory of Ford (St. Mary's) and Mays (LSU) going bananas from 3 against us.

Don't forget Harald Frey. We got a scare in that one.

The problem for Sam in this game is he IS an Aggie, through and through. Which means he approaches this BYU as a player and a fan. He wants to win so bad that he tends to press.

Madmartigan wrote: ↑

December 12th, 2019, 1:25 pm

flying_scotsman2.0 wrote: ↑

December 12th, 2019, 1:14 pm

Bean on Childs, all night long. Let the man do his work of death. Childs will head straight to the NBA right after this game if all goes as planned, in search of easier competition.

I don't think a Bean vs Childs matchup would go in our favor. Childs is a man child. I like Anderson/Queta on him more.

I think Bean would match up better than anyone other than Queta and if Queta is on minute restrictions again who else guards him? Yoeli is 6'8" 225 and Bean is 6'7" 209, but Bean will be singing like Lionel Richie and outwork Yoeli all night long. Yoeli's athleticism at his size is usually what gives him an advantage and he is kind of a more finesse big man that can out jump some other big guys. That is why I feel like putting an athletic Bean at 6'7" would work.

hipsterdoofus21 wrote: ↑

December 12th, 2019, 1:47 pm

The problem for Sam in this game is he IS an Aggie, through and through. Which means he approaches this BYU as a player and a fan. He wants to win so bad that he tends to press.

I think the first two years Merrill didn't have a great supporting cast around him and had to press a bit. Last year he had an off game and BYU played absolutely out of their minds at home. I'm guessing he has a big game this time around.

I would like to see us throw a 3-2 zone at them for a little while to neutralize any screens on the top of the key to get their shooters open. See if they are athletic enough to beat us by slashing into our zone. I bet they are not. I'm not sure why every coach has such a stigma against zones. At least mixing them into your repertoire. Washington had our heads spinning last year with their zone and while we probably wouldn't ever be to their level it can throw teams off of their game if you show one from time to time.

For a rebounding edge it’s too bad we are not all healthy. Kuba at center, Queta at the 4; Bean at the 3; Anderson at 2; and Merrill at the point?