Would you rather

LarryTheAggie · Post by **LarryTheAggie** » February 18th, 2023, 8:14 pm

Nevada has a fairly soft schedule the rest of the season. Would you rather that they win out and get us a quad one win. Or would you rather that they drop another game (or 2?), so we can get the third seed over them?

bigblue32 · Post by **bigblue32** » February 18th, 2023, 8:14 pm

quad 1 hands down

Sl7vk · Post by **Sl7vk** » February 18th, 2023, 8:17 pm

I actually would much rather get into that 2/3 slot and not have to face SDSU early.
I don’t think an at large is going to happen so delaying SDSU and potentially not facing them is key.

brownjeans · Post by **brownjeans** » February 18th, 2023, 8:19 pm

I want the Aggies to win out. I think if we do that, and get to the semi-finals in the conf. tournament, we should be okay.
If Nevada does the same, it will be good for USU.

Even so - I'd be surprised if the MWC gets four teams in. So...

scotlandog · Post by **scotlandog** » February 18th, 2023, 9:06 pm

I actually think we have a better chance of having Boise going 2-3 the rest of the way and us going 3-0. If that happens, we can take the 3 seed. I think Nev has the easier road to get the 2 seed than Boise. Boise could easily lose to SDSU and lose to us in the Spectrum. I think the critical games are Boise @SJSU and USU@UNLV then of course Boise@USU. Those could all go our way and we could steal the 3seed.

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utaggies · Post by **utaggies** » February 18th, 2023, 9:45 pm

If BSU loses to both SDS and USU but wins the rest of its games AND the Aggies win out during the regular season both teams would finish with a conference record of 13-5. But USU would own the tie-breaker over the Broncos IF NM finishes in a tie with or ahead of SJS given that USU was 1-0 against the Lobos and BSU will presumably be 1-1 against them.

Nothing is certain at this point as there is still a lot of basketball to be played. But I’d prefer to not have to play NM in the quarterfinals or SDS in the semifinals of the MWC tourney. Unless screwy things happen SDS will be the #1 seed and Nevada the #2 seed.

Yossarian · Post by **Yossarian** » February 19th, 2023, 2:53 am

If USU is battling Kentucky and North Carolina as bubble teams for the last remaining spot in the NCAA tournament, I don't like its chances of getting in. The Aggies must win the MW Tournament and get the auto bid.

slcagg · Post by **slcagg** » February 19th, 2023, 3:43 am

scotlandog wrote: ↑
February 18th, 2023, 9:06 pm
I actually think we have a better chance of having Boise going 2-3 the rest of the way and us going 3-0. If that happens, we can take the 3 seed. I think Nev has the easier road to get the 2 seed than Boise. Boise could easily lose to SDSU and lose to us in the Spectrum. I think the critical games are Boise @SJSU and USU@UNLV then of course Boise@USU. Those could all go our way and we could steal the 3seed.

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What if Boise goes 3-2 and we went 3-0. Who gets the 3 seed?

utaggies · Post by **utaggies** » February 19th, 2023, 4:13 am

slcagg wrote: ↑
February 19th, 2023, 3:43 am

scotlandog wrote: ↑
February 18th, 2023, 9:06 pm
I actually think we have a better chance of having Boise going 2-3 the rest of the way and us going 3-0. If that happens, we can take the 3 seed. I think Nev has the easier road to get the 2 seed than Boise. Boise could easily lose to SDSU and lose to us in the Spectrum. I think the critical games are Boise @SJSU and USU@UNLV then of course Boise@USU. Those could all go our way and we could steal the 3seed.

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What if Boise goes 3-2 and we went 3-0. Who gets the 3 seed?

See my post above. It will likely depend on whether SJS or NM gets the #5 seed.

MarioWest · Post by **MarioWest** » February 19th, 2023, 5:35 am

utaggies wrote: ↑
February 18th, 2023, 9:45 pm
If BSU loses to both SDS and USU but wins the rest of its games AND the Aggies win out during the regular season both teams would finish with a conference record of 13-5. But USU would own the tie-breaker over the Broncos IF NM finishes in a tie with or ahead of SJS given that USU was 1-0 against the Lobos and BSU will presumably be 1-1 against them.

Nothing is certain at this point as there is still a lot of basketball to be played. But I’d prefer to not have to play NM in the quarterfinals or SDS in the semifinals of the MWC tourney. Unless screwy things happen SDS will be the #1 seed and Nevada the #2 seed.

As you said, nothing is certain at this point, but I think USU wants to play UNM in the quarterfinals. If UNM ends up as the 5 seed, they will probably still be top 50 NET so that’s a Q1 opportunity on a neutral court.

Playing SJSU in the first round is a dangerous game with no Q1 upside. I know the Lobos just crushed the Spartans but Omari Moore gives the Aggies fits.

The clearest path to an at-large bid is Nevada getting to the Top 30 and USU beating UNM in the quarters. At that point, USU would have 2 Q1 wins and a low 30s NET. The committee would not be able to keep the Aggies out even with a loss in the semi-finals.

FeartheFro · Post by **FeartheFro** » February 19th, 2023, 8:00 am

So confused on the whole bubble situation. Based on the recent conversation I was expecting to see our Net in the high 40’s. Just took a look and saw that we are at 35. I don’t know what selection Sunday will bring but if we win at Vegas and beat Boise at home our Net will be in the 30’s. I think I remember someone saying no team has ever been left out that had a Net in the 30’s. Does the selection committee use the Net or not?

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MrBiggle · Post by **MrBiggle** » February 19th, 2023, 8:06 am

FeartheFro wrote: ↑
February 19th, 2023, 8:00 am
So confused on the whole bubble situation. Based on the recent conversation I was expecting to see our Net in the high 40’s. Just took a look and saw that we are at 35. I don’t know what selection Sunday will bring but if we win at Vegas and beat Boise at home our Net will be in the 30’s. I think I remember someone saying no team has ever been left out that had a Net in the 30’s. Does the selection committee use the Net or not?

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There has been several teams left out with a NET in the 30s. the first few were in the first year of the NET system, since then I believe that only Oklahoma has been left out, it was last year and they were at 38, IIRC.

FeartheFro · Post by **FeartheFro** » February 19th, 2023, 8:09 am

MrBiggle wrote:
FeartheFro wrote: ↑
February 19th, 2023, 8:00 am
So confused on the whole bubble situation. Based on the recent conversation I was expecting to see our Net in the high 40’s. Just took a look and saw that we are at 35. I don’t know what selection Sunday will bring but if we win at Vegas and beat Boise at home our Net will be in the 30’s. I think I remember someone saying no team has ever been left out that had a Net in the 30’s. Does the selection committee use the Net or not?

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There has been several teams left out with a NET in the 30s. the first few were in the first year of the NET system, since then I believe that only Oklahoma has been left out, it was last year and they were at 38, IIRC.

My bad. If this is the case, I now understand the concern.

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Aggiesbleedblue · Post by **Aggiesbleedblue** » February 19th, 2023, 8:30 am

Wyoming was 58 last year and got in. We’ll be in comfortably with 3 more total wins, regular season/tournament combined. Provided the 1 loss isn’t against the Pokes

utaggies · Post by **utaggies** » February 19th, 2023, 8:34 am

MarioWest wrote: ↑
February 19th, 2023, 5:35 am

utaggies wrote: ↑
February 18th, 2023, 9:45 pm
If BSU loses to both SDS and USU but wins the rest of its games AND the Aggies win out during the regular season both teams would finish with a conference record of 13-5. But USU would own the tie-breaker over the Broncos IF NM finishes in a tie with or ahead of SJS given that USU was 1-0 against the Lobos and BSU will presumably be 1-1 against them.

Nothing is certain at this point as there is still a lot of basketball to be played. But I’d prefer to not have to play NM in the quarterfinals or SDS in the semifinals of the MWC tourney. Unless screwy things happen SDS will be the #1 seed and Nevada the #2 seed.
As you said, nothing is certain at this point, but I think USU wants to play UNM in the quarterfinals. If UNM ends up as the 5 seed, they will probably still be top 50 NET so that’s a Q1 opportunity on a neutral court.

Playing SJSU in the first round is a dangerous game with no Q1 upside. I know the Lobos just crushed the Spartans but Omari Moore gives the Aggies fits.

The clearest path to an at-large bid is Nevada getting to the Top 30 and USU beating UNM in the quarters. At that point, USU would have 2 Q1 wins and a low 30s NET. The committee would not be able to keep the Aggies out even with a loss in the semi-finals.

I believe it’s to our advantage to be the #3 seed as opposed to the #4 seed:
1) we avoid playing a very athletic NM team in the quaterfinals
2) we avoid being in SDS’ side of the bracket and playing them in the semifinals
3) being the 3rd seed means we will have gone 3-0 in our remaining conference games with the BSU game hopefully being a Q1 win, which would result in our NET being around #30 and ahead of every other team in the conference except SDS.
4) I don’t believe more than three MWC teams will go to the NCAA tourney. The eyeball test of finishing third would be better than finishing fourth — even if our conference record is the same as BSU’s.

Given NM’s remaining schedule (SDS, @BSU, @CSU and FSU) I don’t believe NM will remain in the NET Top 50 (the Lobos are current #47) which would allow us to garner a Q1 win should we beat them in the tourney.

At the point of the conference tourney it will be choose your own poison. We’ll absolutely need to win our quarterfinal game to have a chance at an at-large bid whether we are the #3 or #4 seed. So we would likely play NM in the quarterfinals if we are the #4 seed or SJS if we’re the #3 seed. The Lobos’ 28 point win @SJS helped me make the decision clearer as to which won I’d prefer to play.

Right now our mantra must be, “Just win, Baby!” and let the conference seeding and NET aspects take care of themselves.

Our two close losses to SDS and SJS last week were daggers.

ineptimusprime · Post by **ineptimusprime** » February 19th, 2023, 8:59 am

All I care about is winning our last three games. The rest will sort itself out.

MarioWest · Post by **MarioWest** » February 19th, 2023, 9:03 am

utaggies wrote: ↑
February 19th, 2023, 8:34 am

MarioWest wrote: ↑
February 19th, 2023, 5:35 am

utaggies wrote: ↑
February 18th, 2023, 9:45 pm
If BSU loses to both SDS and USU but wins the rest of its games AND the Aggies win out during the regular season both teams would finish with a conference record of 13-5. But USU would own the tie-breaker over the Broncos IF NM finishes in a tie with or ahead of SJS given that USU was 1-0 against the Lobos and BSU will presumably be 1-1 against them.

Nothing is certain at this point as there is still a lot of basketball to be played. But I’d prefer to not have to play NM in the quarterfinals or SDS in the semifinals of the MWC tourney. Unless screwy things happen SDS will be the #1 seed and Nevada the #2 seed.
As you said, nothing is certain at this point, but I think USU wants to play UNM in the quarterfinals. If UNM ends up as the 5 seed, they will probably still be top 50 NET so that’s a Q1 opportunity on a neutral court.

Playing SJSU in the first round is a dangerous game with no Q1 upside. I know the Lobos just crushed the Spartans but Omari Moore gives the Aggies fits.

The clearest path to an at-large bid is Nevada getting to the Top 30 and USU beating UNM in the quarters. At that point, USU would have 2 Q1 wins and a low 30s NET. The committee would not be able to keep the Aggies out even with a loss in the semi-finals.
I believe it’s to our advantage to be the #3 seed as opposed to the #4 seed:
1) we avoid playing a very athletic NM team in the quaterfinals
2) we avoid being in SDS’ side of the bracket and playing them in the semifinals
3) being the 3rd seed means we will have gone 3-0 in our remaining conference games with the BSU game hopefully being a Q1 win, which would result in our NET being around #30 and ahead of every other team in the conference except SDS.
4) I don’t believe more than three MWC teams will go to the NCAA tourney. The eyeball test of finishing third would be better than finishing fourth — even if our conference record is the same as BSU’s.

Given NM’s remaining schedule (SDS, @BSU, @CSU and FSU) I don’t believe NM will remain in the NET Top 50 (the Lobos are current #47) which would allow us to garner a Q1 win should we beat them in the tourney.

At the point of the conference tourney it will be choose your own poison. We’ll absolutely need to win our quarterfinal game to have a chance at an at-large bid whether we are the #3 or #4 seed. So we would likely play NM in the quarterfinals if we are the #4 seed or SJS if we’re the #3 seed. The Lobos’ 28 point win @SJS helped me make the decision clearer as to which won I’d prefer to play.

Right now our mantra must be, “Just win, Baby!” and let the conference seeding and NET aspects take care of themselves.

Our two close losses to SDS and SJS last week were daggers.

I agree with everything you said here except #1. I think USU matches up much better against UNM than SJSU. UNM is athletic but their backcourt is small. Omari Moore is 6'6". The Aggies just don't have anyone that can guard him.

SJSU could very easily be 2-0 against USU this year while the UNM game was a pretty comfortable wire-to-wire win.

Winning out is the most important thing, but I'd rather see UNM in the quarter-finals regardless of seed. Plus, UNM might be a Q1 game on a neutral court. Win/Win IMO.

dogie · Post by **dogie** » February 19th, 2023, 9:07 am

Yossarian wrote: ↑
February 19th, 2023, 2:53 am
If USU is battling Kentucky and North Carolina as bubble teams for the last remaining spot in the NCAA tournament, I don't like its chances of getting in. The Aggies must win the MW Tournament and get the auto bid.

Fortunately there is still some basketball to be played. UNC (44 NET) is 0-8 in Q1 games and they could easily finish 0-11. Of course, they are undefeated in Q4 games.

The only top 50 teams without a Q1 victory are USU (0-4, 35 NET), UNC (0-8, 44), Oral Roberts (0-4, 45) and Liberty (0-3, 47).

The top 50 teams have a total of only eight Q4 losses. Half of those are games lost by USU and Texas A&M (29), which lost to Murray State and Wofford.

The Aggies are now 7-1 in Q2 games, which is going to be a major plus factor for a possible NCAA bid. The only team in the country with more than 7 Q2 wins is Boise State (23), which is 8-1.

scotlandog · Post by **scotlandog** » February 19th, 2023, 9:36 am

MarioWest wrote:
utaggies wrote: ↑
February 19th, 2023, 8:34 am

MarioWest wrote: ↑
February 19th, 2023, 5:35 am

utaggies wrote: ↑
February 18th, 2023, 9:45 pm
If BSU loses to both SDS and USU but wins the rest of its games AND the Aggies win out during the regular season both teams would finish with a conference record of 13-5. But USU would own the tie-breaker over the Broncos IF NM finishes in a tie with or ahead of SJS given that USU was 1-0 against the Lobos and BSU will presumably be 1-1 against them.

Nothing is certain at this point as there is still a lot of basketball to be played. But I’d prefer to not have to play NM in the quarterfinals or SDS in the semifinals of the MWC tourney. Unless screwy things happen SDS will be the #1 seed and Nevada the #2 seed.
As you said, nothing is certain at this point, but I think USU wants to play UNM in the quarterfinals. If UNM ends up as the 5 seed, they will probably still be top 50 NET so that’s a Q1 opportunity on a neutral court.

Playing SJSU in the first round is a dangerous game with no Q1 upside. I know the Lobos just crushed the Spartans but Omari Moore gives the Aggies fits.

The clearest path to an at-large bid is Nevada getting to the Top 30 and USU beating UNM in the quarters. At that point, USU would have 2 Q1 wins and a low 30s NET. The committee would not be able to keep the Aggies out even with a loss in the semi-finals.
I believe it’s to our advantage to be the #3 seed as opposed to the #4 seed:
1) we avoid playing a very athletic NM team in the quaterfinals
2) we avoid being in SDS’ side of the bracket and playing them in the semifinals
3) being the 3rd seed means we will have gone 3-0 in our remaining conference games with the BSU game hopefully being a Q1 win, which would result in our NET being around #30 and ahead of every other team in the conference except SDS.
4) I don’t believe more than three MWC teams will go to the NCAA tourney. The eyeball test of finishing third would be better than finishing fourth — even if our conference record is the same as BSU’s.

Given NM’s remaining schedule (SDS, @BSU, @CSU and FSU) I don’t believe NM will remain in the NET Top 50 (the Lobos are current #47) which would allow us to garner a Q1 win should we beat them in the tourney.

At the point of the conference tourney it will be choose your own poison. We’ll absolutely need to win our quarterfinal game to have a chance at an at-large bid whether we are the #3 or #4 seed. So we would likely play NM in the quarterfinals if we are the #4 seed or SJS if we’re the #3 seed. The Lobos’ 28 point win @SJS helped me make the decision clearer as to which won I’d prefer to play.

Right now our mantra must be, “Just win, Baby!” and let the conference seeding and NET aspects take care of themselves.

Our two close losses to SDS and SJS last week were daggers.
I agree with everything you said here except #1. I think USU matches up much better against UNM than SJSU. UNM is athletic but their backcourt is small. Omari Moore is 6'6". The Aggies just don't have anyone that can guard him.

SJSU could very easily be 2-0 against USU this year while the UNM game was a pretty comfortable wire-to-wire win.

Winning out is the most important thing, but I'd rather see UNM in the quarter-finals regardless of seed. Plus, UNM might be a Q1 game on a neutral court. Win/Win IMO.

We just need to guard Moore on his right hand. We kept letting him go to his right and he always scores. We push him to his left and he doesn’t finish very well. The time we got him going to his left, he always tried to go back to his right to finish. We need to severely overplay the right and force him into bad shots. He’s good though and shifty.

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utaggies · Post by **utaggies** » February 19th, 2023, 9:42 am

dogie wrote: ↑
February 19th, 2023, 9:07 am

Yossarian wrote: ↑
February 19th, 2023, 2:53 am
If USU is battling Kentucky and North Carolina as bubble teams for the last remaining spot in the NCAA tournament, I don't like its chances of getting in. The Aggies must win the MW Tournament and get the auto bid.
Fortunately there is still some basketball to be played. UNC (44 NET) is 0-8 in Q1 games and they could easily finish 0-11. Of course, they are undefeated in Q4 games.

The only top 50 teams without a Q1 victory are USU (0-4, 35 NET), UNC (0-8, 44), Oral Roberts (0-4, 45) and Liberty (0-3, 47).

The top 50 teams have a total of only eight Q4 losses. Half of those are games lost by USU and Texas A&M (29), which lost to Murray State and Wofford.

The Aggies are now 7-1 in Q2 games, which is going to be a major plus factor for a possible NCAA bid. The only team in the country with more than 7 Q2 wins is Boise State (23), which is 8-1.

I like our Q2 wins but we have two major holes in our resume right now, zero Q1 wins and two Q4 losses. We’ve got to at least rectify the former before Selection Sunday.

Aggie84025 · Post by **Aggie84025** » February 19th, 2023, 10:14 am

I want to see the Aggies get the 3 seed. Sets them up for a deeper conference tourney run.

Dkdavis · Post by **Dkdavis** » February 19th, 2023, 9:23 pm

Aggie84025 wrote: ↑
February 19th, 2023, 10:14 am
I want to see the Aggies get the 3 seed. Sets them up for a deeper conference tourney run.

The unfortunate thing about the 3 seed is we likely will face San Jose in the first game.

918AGG · Post by **918AGG** » February 21st, 2023, 12:53 pm

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story ... redictions

Saw this from ESPN today. I'm not so sure that we'd be out (in favor of UNC or the 76 NET Badgers) as UNC is 0-8 in Quad 1 play and Wisconsin has plenty of warts as well.

Given that we win through, the Boise game will be quite big. I may actually go watch in the Spectrum (in the midst of my busy season at work). Still lots of basketball to play (including the MW tournament).

Aggie84025 · Post by **Aggie84025** » February 21st, 2023, 12:55 pm

Dkdavis wrote: ↑
February 19th, 2023, 9:23 pm

Aggie84025 wrote: ↑
February 19th, 2023, 10:14 am
I want to see the Aggies get the 3 seed. Sets them up for a deeper conference tourney run.
The unfortunate thing about the 3 seed is we likely will face San Jose in the first game.

That is a good point. Although I would much rather face SJSU that played the day prior than being the 4th seed and playing a well rested NM or SJSU team. Getting to play a team that played the day before is a huge advantage.

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