Having projections of New Mexico in and us out

SpectrumMagic · Post by **SpectrumMagic** » February 21st, 2023, 9:19 pm

SLB wrote: ↑
February 21st, 2023, 9:07 pm
lol

Most likely due to 3 Q1 wins. We all aggies can do is win. We’ve got a Q2 and Q1 game and then some more Q2 and Q1 game opportunities in MWT. Keep playing good ball we have a great shot

bpd · Post by **bpd** » February 21st, 2023, 9:57 pm

At this point UNM should be ahead of us. They have wins at SDSu and St Mary’s. Our roads are not great.

Sl7vk · Post by **Sl7vk** » February 21st, 2023, 10:07 pm

bpd wrote: ↑
February 21st, 2023, 9:57 pm
At this point UNM should be ahead of us. They have wins at SDSu and St Mary’s. Our roads are not great.

Not sure about that. Their net is not good, their conference record is bad and they are cold in their last 10 including some really bad losses.

They don’t look anything close to a tourney team right now.

bpd · Post by **bpd** » February 21st, 2023, 10:20 pm

Two of those losses were without their best player.

Ahbye · Post by **Ahbye** » February 21st, 2023, 10:37 pm

They lost to us head to head and are 15 spots below us in the net and are in a free fall. They're also 7-7 in conference. Only reason they are in the conversation is because the name Pitino is a March staple.

nswaggie · Post by **nswaggie** » February 21st, 2023, 10:40 pm

bpd wrote: ↑
February 21st, 2023, 10:20 pm
Two of those losses were without their best player.

Mashburn Jr. Is there best player IMO. I agree they should be ahead of us. If we play them in the 4-5 game of the conference tournament that will ultimately determine who is ahead of who.

SLB · Post by **SLB** » February 21st, 2023, 10:53 pm

We are 22-7 and 11-5 in-conference.
New Mexico is 20-7 and 7-7 in-conference.
We faced New Mexico and beat them.

MetsJetsAggies · Post by **MetsJetsAggies** » February 21st, 2023, 11:03 pm

I just don’t understand the point of Net if you’re going to essentially ignore it

Like yeah we are currently 0-4 vs q1, 3 of which were on the road, because the arbitrary cut off gives us with 2-3 wins right outside q1. But Net accounts for that…that’s what it’s for, imaginary and arbitrary cut offs are fine, but to put 15 teams behind us in over us seems like a stretch.

Change the formula of Net then to value q1 wins more. Otherwise may as well just ignore it entirely and put whoever is like 5-13 vs q1 in over every mid major that climbs to 30ish in Net

The weirdest one is the people with UNC in, they’re like 0-9 vs q1 and 15 spots behind us yet somehow they’d get in over us? Huh

Roy McAvoy · Post by **Roy McAvoy** » February 21st, 2023, 11:03 pm

SLB wrote: ↑
February 21st, 2023, 10:53 pm
We are 22-7 and 11-5 in-conference.
New Mexico is 20-7 and 7-7 in-conference.
We faced New Mexico and beat them.

The ncaa selection committee isn’t moving the goal posts here. They make no secret that q1 wins & record hold the most weighting in their selection criteria.
New Mexico has us beat by a ways in that category.

Aggie84025 · Post by **Aggie84025** » February 21st, 2023, 11:10 pm

Just need to keep winning. The Aggies have a lot of work to do but are still in a good spot.

MetsJetsAggies · Post by **MetsJetsAggies** » February 21st, 2023, 11:15 pm

Roy McAvoy wrote: ↑
February 21st, 2023, 11:03 pm

SLB wrote: ↑
February 21st, 2023, 10:53 pm
We are 22-7 and 11-5 in-conference.
New Mexico is 20-7 and 7-7 in-conference.
We faced New Mexico and beat them.
The ncaa selection committee isn’t moving the goal posts here. They make no secret that q1 wins & record hold the most weighting in their selection criteria.
New Mexico has us beat by a ways in that category.

In that case virtually no mid majors would make it as an at large though, they’d have to be like top 20-25 to have any shot most years since no power conf teams will play them on the road…maybe neutral. Just ignore Net and put the teams with the most q1 wins

St marys would be on the bubble with 2 q1 wins, despite being top 10 in net.

If they’re going to hang everything on an arbitrary cut off that literally uses net rating as the metric for it, what’s the point? I’d also argue q1+q2 combined record should be weighted just as heavily due to the cutoffs

Sports books take millions of dollars in action on point spreads set around the type of data that goes into Net…kenpom, sagarin, possession data, etc but apparently that’s not better than an early season win over St Mary’s (who lost to Colorado State around then also)

Aggie84025 · Post by **Aggie84025** » February 21st, 2023, 11:23 pm

MetsJetsAggies wrote: ↑
February 21st, 2023, 11:15 pm

Roy McAvoy wrote: ↑
February 21st, 2023, 11:03 pm

SLB wrote: ↑
February 21st, 2023, 10:53 pm
We are 22-7 and 11-5 in-conference.
New Mexico is 20-7 and 7-7 in-conference.
We faced New Mexico and beat them.
The ncaa selection committee isn’t moving the goal posts here. They make no secret that q1 wins & record hold the most weighting in their selection criteria.
New Mexico has us beat by a ways in that category.
In that case virtually no mid majors would make it as an at large though, they’d have to be like top 20-25 to have any shot most years since no power conf teams will play them on the road…maybe neutral. Just ignore Net and put the teams with the most q1 wins

St marys would be on the bubble with 2 q1 wins, despite being top 10 in net.

If they’re going to hang everything on an arbitrary cut off that literally uses net rating as the metric for it, what’s the point? I’d also argue q1+q2 combined record should be weighted just as heavily due to the cutoffs

Sports books take millions of dollars in action on point spreads set around the type of data that goes into Net…kenpom, sagarin, possession data, etc but apparently that’s not better than an early season win over St Mary’s (who lost to Colorado State around then also)

You are spot on. The net already takes all the quadrant games into affect in their formula so I don't understand the infatuation with quadrant 1 games. I find it funny that net rankings for a team in a power conference is used for them but a team from a lower conference with a high net ranking has it picked apart because of their lack of quadrant 1 games.

flying_scotsman2.0 · Post by **flying_scotsman2.0** » February 21st, 2023, 11:33 pm

Aggie84025 wrote: ↑
February 21st, 2023, 11:23 pm

MetsJetsAggies wrote: ↑
February 21st, 2023, 11:15 pm

Roy McAvoy wrote: ↑
February 21st, 2023, 11:03 pm

SLB wrote: ↑
February 21st, 2023, 10:53 pm
We are 22-7 and 11-5 in-conference.
New Mexico is 20-7 and 7-7 in-conference.
We faced New Mexico and beat them.
The ncaa selection committee isn’t moving the goal posts here. They make no secret that q1 wins & record hold the most weighting in their selection criteria.
New Mexico has us beat by a ways in that category.
In that case virtually no mid majors would make it as an at large though, they’d have to be like top 20-25 to have any shot most years since no power conf teams will play them on the road…maybe neutral. Just ignore Net and put the teams with the most q1 wins

St marys would be on the bubble with 2 q1 wins, despite being top 10 in net.

If they’re going to hang everything on an arbitrary cut off that literally uses net rating as the metric for it, what’s the point? I’d also argue q1+q2 combined record should be weighted just as heavily due to the cutoffs

Sports books take millions of dollars in action on point spreads set around the type of data that goes into Net…kenpom, sagarin, possession data, etc but apparently that’s not better than an early season win over St Mary’s (who lost to Colorado State around then also)
You are spot on. The net already takes all the quadrant games into affect in their formula so I don't understand the infatuation with quadrant 1 games. I find it funny that net rankings for a team in a power conference is used for them but a team from a lower conference with a high net ranking has it picked apart because of their lack of quadrant 1 games.

We'll see what happens. The NCAA selection committee has been more than fair with us since the NET came out, often giving us higher seeds than expected. I think we're in a good spot if we win at least 1/2 to finish the regular season and a game in the MW tournament.

ineptimusprime · Post by **ineptimusprime** » February 22nd, 2023, 12:36 am

Perhaps I am being naive, but I am disinclined to think we get left out if we have a NET ranking in the mid-to-low 30s when Selection Sunday rolls around no matter what Lunardi, Palm, Rothstein, or anyone else is saying right now. There are so few examples of teams getting left out with our metrics. I think where we get dinged for our Q1 record is seeding.

Now, I say let’s beat UNLV, Boise, and then win one in the MW tourney to be safe. People saying we want to avoid the 4/5 game? I’m not so sure. I like our chances of beating a UNM team we match up pretty well with in the 4/5 game and picking up a Q1 win, and an opportunity against SDSU in the semis only brings with it upside. Win, and it’s a statement win that likely punches our ticket no matter what happens in the title game — lose and it’s unlikely to affect our NET at all. Also, doesn’t the winner of the 1/4 game usually have a rest advantage for the title game versus the winner of the 2/3 game?

The good news is, we don’t have any opportunities to pick up any further bad losses barring something unexpected in the conference tourney. I think we are at minimum NIT bound and likely hosting a game even if we were to lose out from here through Selection Sunday.

Overall, I am super pleased with the season. I thought we’d be dog doodoo this season and it’s turned out to be a pleasant surprise.

scotlandog · Post by **scotlandog** » February 22nd, 2023, 1:00 am

We have talked a lot about Q1 but I do remember them discussing brackets last year and a lot of talk after the bracket was about Q1/Q2 records. They sort of lumped them in. I didn’t think much of it at the time but I’m wondering if the reason the talking heads switched to discussing Q1/Q2 was bc that made the picture clearer on who was selected. If that has any truth to it at all, the Aggies look pretty good with that 7-1 Q2 record or 7-5 Q1/Q2. Compare that with other at large teams:

Nevada: 9-7
Kentucky: 9-8
West Virginia: 9-12
Memphis: 7-6
Miss St: 7-10
N Mex: 6-3
Oregon: 9-12
USC: 8-6
Boise: 9-4
(SDSU: 8-5 just for comparisons)

Now we are not looking that bad. Especially with wins vs 35,44,47,63,73,75. Plus we still have a good shot at 23 then some more good wins in the tourney. Plus Santa Clara, UNLV, San Fran, LMU could all move up to Q2. I don’t think we are in as bad of shape as we feel. There’s a reason we still keep finding ourselves on the “Next 4 out” type lists. They don’t want to put us in without a Q1 but they can’t deny our Q1/Q2 record.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

ineptimusprime · Post by **ineptimusprime** » February 22nd, 2023, 1:04 am

Another thing — our current NET ranking is similar to where we were in 2018-19 when the committee awarded us an 8 seed, and at least currently is better than any of our other NET-era tourney teams.

slcagg · Post by **slcagg** » February 22nd, 2023, 5:48 am

MetsJetsAggies wrote: ↑
February 21st, 2023, 11:03 pm
I just don’t understand the point of Net if you’re going to essentially ignore it

Like yeah we are currently 0-4 vs q1, 3 of which were on the road, because the arbitrary cut off gives us with 2-3 wins right outside q1. But Net accounts for that…that’s what it’s for, imaginary and arbitrary cut offs are fine, but to put 15 teams behind us in over us seems like a stretch.

Change the formula of Net then to value q1 wins more. Otherwise may as well just ignore it entirely and put whoever is like 5-13 vs q1 in over every mid major that climbs to 30ish in Net

The weirdest one is the people with UNC in, they’re like 0-9 vs q1 and 15 spots behind us yet somehow they’d get in over us? Huh

Look at Wisconsin. Mid 70s and most are saying they are in as of now.

I watch a lot of Wisconsin bball living near Madison and the last month they have looked poor. Not to mention their roster really is not that impressive.

Usu0505 · Post by **Usu0505** » February 22nd, 2023, 5:49 am

The projections and the people that do them have seemingly ignored net year after year since it came out. The ncaa tournament committee has remained true to it so they can project whatever they want we just need to keep winning because we are in a great spot

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SLB · Post by **SLB** » February 22nd, 2023, 6:44 am

People should ask themselves are there really 44 teams better than us.

SLB · Post by **SLB** » February 22nd, 2023, 6:48 am

We have a NET ranking of 33 and a Kenpom of 35. To say that we are not in is to ignore all systems of the past and ignoring who we faced and just about everything basketball in deciding the NCAA tournament.

NVAggie · Post by **NVAggie** » February 22nd, 2023, 7:37 am

We honestly don't know what the committee will do with us. We definitely have a resume that sticks out...in a bad way. A lot of our metrics are very good, but we really don't have that awesome win that we need. In the 5th best conference, I can see how 4 teams get in. I think we are looking better than UNM right now personally.

Bondar4Aggies · Post by **Bondar4Aggies** » February 22nd, 2023, 8:08 am

scotlandog wrote:We have talked a lot about Q1 but I do remember them discussing brackets last year and a lot of talk after the bracket was about Q1/Q2 records. They sort of lumped them in. I didn’t think much of it at the time but I’m wondering if the reason the talking heads switched to discussing Q1/Q2 was bc that made the picture clearer on who was selected. If that has any truth to it at all, the Aggies look pretty good with that 7-1 Q2 record or 7-5 Q1/Q2. Compare that with other at large teams:

Nevada: 9-7
Kentucky: 9-8
West Virginia: 9-12
Memphis: 7-6
Miss St: 7-10
N Mex: 6-3
Oregon: 9-12
USC: 8-6
Boise: 9-4
(SDSU: 8-5 just for comparisons)

Now we are not looking that bad. Especially with wins vs 35,44,47,63,73,75. Plus we still have a good shot at 23 then some more good wins in the tourney. Plus Santa Clara, UNLV, San Fran, LMU could all move up to Q2. I don’t think we are in as bad of shape as we feel. There’s a reason we still keep finding ourselves on the “Next 4 out” type lists. They don’t want to put us in without a Q1 but they can’t deny our Q1/Q2 record.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This. I would argue they place more weight on Q1+Q2 rather than just Q1, likely because of mid-majors inability to get several Q1 games. The optics are just bad at 0-4 is all. I would say we’re right on the cutoff right now.

OrangeCountyAggie · Post by **OrangeCountyAggie** » February 22nd, 2023, 10:26 am

SLB wrote: ↑
February 21st, 2023, 9:07 pm
lol

I think the MWC will get 4 teams into big dance. We will be one if those teams if our net stays in the 30s and we have at least 2 Q1s by selection sunday.

AGGIEinIOWA · Post by **AGGIEinIOWA** » February 22nd, 2023, 10:53 am

NM has 4 pretty challenging games left in the regular season: @Boise, SDSU, FSU, @ CSU. Based on their recent play, they likely lose 2-3 of those and fall off the bubble. They could even get passed by the Sparties.

hipsterdoofus21 · Post by **hipsterdoofus21** » February 22nd, 2023, 1:20 pm

Aggie84025 wrote: ↑
February 21st, 2023, 11:23 pm

MetsJetsAggies wrote: ↑
February 21st, 2023, 11:15 pm

Roy McAvoy wrote: ↑
February 21st, 2023, 11:03 pm

SLB wrote: ↑
February 21st, 2023, 10:53 pm
We are 22-7 and 11-5 in-conference.
New Mexico is 20-7 and 7-7 in-conference.
We faced New Mexico and beat them.
The ncaa selection committee isn’t moving the goal posts here. They make no secret that q1 wins & record hold the most weighting in their selection criteria.
New Mexico has us beat by a ways in that category.
In that case virtually no mid majors would make it as an at large though, they’d have to be like top 20-25 to have any shot most years since no power conf teams will play them on the road…maybe neutral. Just ignore Net and put the teams with the most q1 wins

St marys would be on the bubble with 2 q1 wins, despite being top 10 in net.

If they’re going to hang everything on an arbitrary cut off that literally uses net rating as the metric for it, what’s the point? I’d also argue q1+q2 combined record should be weighted just as heavily due to the cutoffs

Sports books take millions of dollars in action on point spreads set around the type of data that goes into Net…kenpom, sagarin, possession data, etc but apparently that’s not better than an early season win over St Mary’s (who lost to Colorado State around then also)
You are spot on. The net already takes all the quadrant games into affect in their formula so I don't understand the infatuation with quadrant 1 games. I find it funny that net rankings for a team in a power conference is used for them but a team from a lower conference with a high net ranking has it picked apart because of their lack of quadrant 1 games.

Yeah it’s stupid. The NET factors it all into the rankings so the standings are what they are. No need to dissect it.

BobWilson · Post by **BobWilson** » February 22nd, 2023, 2:54 pm

If New Mexico is so damn good, why don't we get a little credit for beating them?

Yossarian · Post by **Yossarian** » February 22nd, 2023, 6:47 pm

Remember when UNM and UNLV were getting a lot of hype about being 2 of the last 4 undefeated teams in the country? Now they sit at 5th and 8th place in the conference.

Roy McAvoy · Post by **Roy McAvoy** » February 22nd, 2023, 7:21 pm

BobWilson wrote: ↑
February 22nd, 2023, 2:54 pm
If New Mexico is so damn good, why don't we get a little credit for beating them?

The problem is New Mexico has 3 wins that are all better than our best win. New Mexico is arguably our best win, or Oral Roberts. However, NM has also beaten ORU.

New Mexico has wins @ St. Mary’s, @SDSU, & vs. Boise.

Aggie84025 · Post by **Aggie84025** » February 22nd, 2023, 7:33 pm

Roy McAvoy wrote: ↑
February 22nd, 2023, 7:21 pm

BobWilson wrote: ↑
February 22nd, 2023, 2:54 pm
If New Mexico is so damn good, why don't we get a little credit for beating them?
The problem is New Mexico has 3 wins that are all better than our best win. New Mexico is arguably our best win, or Oral Roberts. However, NM has also beaten ORU.

New Mexico has wins @ St. Mary’s, @SDSU, & vs. Boise.

The Aggies best win so far is Nevada.

Yossarian · Post by **Yossarian** » February 22nd, 2023, 7:38 pm

Aggie84025 wrote: ↑
February 22nd, 2023, 7:33 pm

Roy McAvoy wrote: ↑
February 22nd, 2023, 7:21 pm

BobWilson wrote: ↑
February 22nd, 2023, 2:54 pm
If New Mexico is so damn good, why don't we get a little credit for beating them?
The problem is New Mexico has 3 wins that are all better than our best win. New Mexico is arguably our best win, or Oral Roberts. However, NM has also beaten ORU.

New Mexico has wins @ St. Mary’s, @SDSU, & vs. Boise.
The Aggies best win so far is Nevada.

And SDSUs best win so far is at USU. SDSU is considered a lock with a high seed (5 or 6) in the tournament. Their signature win is at USU, a non-tournament team with a good NET.

Roy McAvoy · Post by **Roy McAvoy** » February 22nd, 2023, 8:13 pm

Aggie84025 wrote: ↑
February 22nd, 2023, 7:33 pm

Roy McAvoy wrote: ↑
February 22nd, 2023, 7:21 pm

BobWilson wrote: ↑
February 22nd, 2023, 2:54 pm
If New Mexico is so damn good, why don't we get a little credit for beating them?
The problem is New Mexico has 3 wins that are all better than our best win. New Mexico is arguably our best win, or Oral Roberts. However, NM has also beaten ORU.

New Mexico has wins @ St. Mary’s, @SDSU, & vs. Boise.
The Aggies best win so far is Nevada.

Oh, duh. Thanks for the correction. The point of the post is the exact same though.

Roy McAvoy · Post by **Roy McAvoy** » February 22nd, 2023, 8:16 pm

Yossarian wrote: ↑
February 22nd, 2023, 7:38 pm

Aggie84025 wrote: ↑
February 22nd, 2023, 7:33 pm

Roy McAvoy wrote: ↑
February 22nd, 2023, 7:21 pm

BobWilson wrote: ↑
February 22nd, 2023, 2:54 pm
If New Mexico is so damn good, why don't we get a little credit for beating them?
The problem is New Mexico has 3 wins that are all better than our best win. New Mexico is arguably our best win, or Oral Roberts. However, NM has also beaten ORU.

New Mexico has wins @ St. Mary’s, @SDSU, & vs. Boise.
The Aggies best win so far is Nevada.
And SDSUs best win so far is at USU. SDSU is considered a lock with a high seed (5 or 6) in the tournament. Their signature win is at USU, a non-tournament team with a good NET.

I mean, it’s a function of overall net ranking & Q1 wins. SDSU also doesn’t have a loss worse than a Q2 team & has a net ranking of #17 and Kenpom.com ranking of 16.

When you have a team ranked 33 with 0 Q wins, it’s going to drop that team a notch or two and another team ranked 47 but with 3 Q1 wins, it’s going to raise them a notch or two. Thus putting usu & New Mexico both likely neck & neck.

scotlandog · Post by **scotlandog** » February 22nd, 2023, 8:34 pm

Yossarian wrote:
Aggie84025 wrote: ↑
February 22nd, 2023, 7:33 pm

Roy McAvoy wrote: ↑
February 22nd, 2023, 7:21 pm

BobWilson wrote: ↑
February 22nd, 2023, 2:54 pm
If New Mexico is so damn good, why don't we get a little credit for beating them?
The problem is New Mexico has 3 wins that are all better than our best win. New Mexico is arguably our best win, or Oral Roberts. However, NM has also beaten ORU.

New Mexico has wins @ St. Mary’s, @SDSU, & vs. Boise.
The Aggies best win so far is Nevada.
And SDSUs best win so far is at USU

This is true. It’s like all the early wins for SDSU created a perception but that perception hasn’t been recalibrated with the losses of Ohio St and BYU. 2-4 in Q1 and 8-5 in Q1/Q2.

Now I’m not saying SDSU isn’t good. I believe they are. But they are not that far ahead of the rest of Nev, USU and BSU.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

SwaggieAggie · Post by **SwaggieAggie** » February 22nd, 2023, 9:03 pm

Roy McAvoy wrote: ↑
February 22nd, 2023, 7:21 pm

BobWilson wrote: ↑
February 22nd, 2023, 2:54 pm
If New Mexico is so damn good, why don't we get a little credit for beating them?
The problem is New Mexico has 3 wins that are all better than our best win. New Mexico is arguably our best win, or Oral Roberts. However, NM has also beaten ORU.

New Mexico has wins @ St. Mary’s, @SDSU, & vs. Boise.

New Mexico has an interesting mix of having the most impressive wins of all the MWC teams, along with the most disappointing losses.. Such a tough team to figure out.

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