This guide is awesome. It shows who we should root for in each game and how much of an effect that game has on our odds of making the tournament.

https://barttorvik.com/bubble-guide.php?team=Utah+St.

This is great and made me lol.

I'll be consulting this every night before I watch the games.

Wonder what criteria they use. There are some games where apparently I root for the wrong team. Like st Mary's and gonzaga. I would think we want st. Mary's to win based on the number of games they have played against the mwc. They think we should root for Gonzaga.

thanks for sharing Quack. I do wonder about some things though, like Nevada vs San Jose showing we should've cheered for SJSU, but we need Nevada to get up to Q1 status.

hipsterdoofus21 wrote:thanks for sharing Quack. I do wonder about some things though, like Nevada vs San Jose showing we should've cheered for SJSU, but we need Nevada to get up to Q1 status.

The idea is if Nevada nose dives they lose their chance at a bid and we also get a better seed.


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QuackAttackAggie wrote: ↑

February 22nd, 2023, 4:56 pm

The idea is if Nevada nose dives they lose their chance at a bid and we also get a better seed.
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Actually, BSU has a schedule that is much more likely to a nose dive - UNM, @SJSU, SDSU and @USU. UN has @FSU, @WYO and UNLV.

Regardless of NET - I'm hoping for the BSU nose dive. If at all possible, I want USU in the 3-slot.

I’m trying to figure out why it wants Pepperdine to beat Santa Clara.

And tomorrow it has South Dakota beating Oral Roberts???

dogie wrote: ↑

February 22nd, 2023, 6:16 pm

I’m trying to figure out why it wants Pepperdine to beat Santa Clara.

Here’s my guess: it isn’t thinking like a human of getting good wins via teams we beat winning more games. It’s going strictly by team rankings in his metrics, which means teams with a lot of wins should lose so they don’t pass us. It’s not perfect obviously. But you can see the Pepperdine game barely moves the needle either way.

Nm hitting shots. I refuse to name who needs to win to help our net, so I assume a 1 point nm loss will beat the spread and help nm as well as not damage bsu much?


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Oh no. We need Boise to beat UNM.

If Boise loses to UNM & us, they’ll likely fall out of Q1 status.

Agree, but I prefer to see the Rice's sweat it out and act like fools again.


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Here's the updated list of teams on the cusp up bumping up a quadrant in the NET ranking:

Nevada is #32 and 2 spots away from a Q1 win
Loyola Maramount is #102 and 2 spots away from a Q2 win
UVU is #78 and 3 spots away from a Q2 win
Santa Clara is #84 and 9 spots away from a Q2 win
San Francisco is #109 and 9 spots away from a Q2 win
UNLV is #85 and 10 spots away from a Q2 win
Fresno State is #162 and 2 spots away from a Q3 win

Roy McAvoy wrote:Here's the updated list of teams on the cusp up bumping up a quadrant in the NET ranking:

Nevada is #32 and 2 spots away from a Q1 win
Loyola Maramount is #102 and 2 spots away from a Q2 win
UVU is #78 and 3 spots away from a Q2 win
Santa Clara is #84 and 9 spots away from a Q2 win
San Francisco is #109 and 9 spots away from a Q2 win
UNLV is #85 and 10 spots away from a Q2 win
Fresno State is #162 and 2 spots away from a Q3 win

Man, it wouldn’t take much to suddenly say USU is looking really good. Exciting and depressing.

Q1: 1-4(with 2 Q1 games left, maybe 3-4)
Q2: 11-1

Q1/Q2: 14-5 that’s a lot of quality wins

Now that isn’t going to happen especially UNLV since we would beat them and drop them back down. But I could see half of that happening by seasons end:

Q1: 2-4
Q2: 8-1

Q1/Q2: 10-5

We should really be rooting heavily for UNLV outside of our game of course. They could be a Q1 and Q2 victory for us but would really have to blow the doors off a few teams and make a run in the tourney. Unlikely.


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He also has a feature where you can change the results of games and see where your odds land.

If USU beats UNLV and Boise, his probabilities put us in the play-in game. That's without putting in tournament games, though.

https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?ran ... m=&x5_res=

Adding in possible tournament games, a loss to NM (currently most likely matchup) in the quarters and we're his first team out. With a win over NM in the quarters and loss to SDSU in the Semis he has us as the third team in the "First Four Out" category...in the play-in game, but likely out due to bid thieves.

If we beat UNLV and Boise, it's gonna be real close. If we lose to either of them, we're very likely out.

Roy McAvoy wrote: ↑

February 23rd, 2023, 8:16 am

Here's the updated list of teams on the cusp up bumping up a quadrant in the NET ranking:

Nevada is #32 and 2 spots away from a Q1 win
Loyola Maramount is #102 and 2 spots away from a Q2 win
UVU is #78 and 3 spots away from a Q2 win
Santa Clara is #84 and 9 spots away from a Q2 win
San Francisco is #109 and 9 spots away from a Q2 win
UNLV is #85 and 10 spots away from a Q2 win
Fresno State is #162 and 2 spots away from a Q3 win

UVU currently losing by 16 at Tarleton State in the 2nd half. If they end up losing that will drop them several spots. They were favored by 3 on the road.

Oral Roberts was ahead by 27 (favored by 13.5) and let So Dakota get back to just 12.

Aggie84025 wrote: ↑

February 23rd, 2023, 7:34 pm

Roy McAvoy wrote: ↑

February 23rd, 2023, 8:16 am

Here's the updated list of teams on the cusp up bumping up a quadrant in the NET ranking:

Nevada is #32 and 2 spots away from a Q1 win
Loyola Maramount is #102 and 2 spots away from a Q2 win
UVU is #78 and 3 spots away from a Q2 win
Santa Clara is #84 and 9 spots away from a Q2 win
San Francisco is #109 and 9 spots away from a Q2 win
UNLV is #85 and 10 spots away from a Q2 win
Fresno State is #162 and 2 spots away from a Q3 win

UVU currently losing by 16 at Tarleton State in the 2nd half. If they end up losing that will drop them several spots. They were favored by 3 on the road.

Down by 14 with 7:21 left. I’d imagine a loss here destroys any hope of them ever getting back to 75 or under in the NET.

Damn, UVU ends up losing by 19...ouch. kiss that Q2 win goodbye.

Xavier destroyed bubble team Seton Hall at Seton Hall. That should be the final nail in the coffin for them. They already were slipping off the board.

We need UNLV to win big tonight to push their NET up to 75 for us and win out except for against us.


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scotlandog wrote:Xavier destroyed bubble team Seton Hall at Seton Hall. That should be the final nail in the coffin for them. They already were slipping off the board.

We need UNLV to win big tonight to push their NET up to 75 for us and win out except for against us.


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Nevada is a lose lose or win win depending on your outlook. Losing could knock them down the bubble to our benefit. Winning makes us look better.


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QuackAttackAggie wrote:

scotlandog wrote:Xavier destroyed bubble team Seton Hall at Seton Hall. That should be the final nail in the coffin for them. They already were slipping off the board.

We need UNLV to win big tonight to push their NET up to 75 for us and win out except for against us.


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Nevada is a lose lose or win win depending on your outlook. Losing could knock them down the bubble to our benefit. Winning makes us look better.


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Yeah, I think Nevada we need to win out to get us our Q1.

UNLV is a bit of a long shot but we need them to blow out Air Force(not doing good so far) and maybe get a blowout win in the conference tourney the first day. Maybe that will be enough to put them better than 75. If UNLV ends up playing SDSU that second day, I think a win there benefits the whole conference getting everyone who beat UNLV at UNLV(SDSU, Boise, Nevada, hopefully us) a Q1 win.

New Mexico is a tough one. We want them high enough(top 50) to be a Q1 if we play them in the conference tourney but that could add a bubble team to the equation. As long as we beat Boise and then beat NM we should be in the tourney no matter if NM is also included. So maybe we root for NM to beat SDSU tomorrow and win out. Tough one.

Boise we want to lose to SDSU and to us if we want the 3 seed. Do we really want it for the easier pathway or do we want the 4/5 game to get NM and another Q1 opportunity even though it is harder? Another tough one.

Thoughts?


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Air Force - Vegas is sure interesting.

Seattle picked up a nice Q2 victory on the road at GCU. They won by 11 but were 6 point underdogs. Won't make Seattle a Q2 game for the Aggies but will help the metrics.

USU78 wrote:Air Force - Vegas is sure interesting.

Unlv is going to lose


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QuackAttackAggie wrote: ↑

February 24th, 2023, 9:30 pm

USU78 wrote:Air Force - Vegas is sure interesting

Unlv is going to lose

Sure looks that way

USU78 wrote:

QuackAttackAggie wrote: ↑

February 24th, 2023, 9:30 pm

USU78 wrote:Air Force - Vegas is sure interesting

Unlv is going to lose

Sure looks that way

Welp air force got creative to lose


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QuackAttackAggie wrote: ↑

February 24th, 2023, 9:35 pm

USU78 wrote:

QuackAttackAggie wrote: ↑

February 24th, 2023, 9:30 pm

USU78 wrote:Air Force - Vegas is sure interesting

Unlv is going to lose

Sure looks that way

Welp air force got creative to lose


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I saw that AFA was up by three with ten seconds left. How did they lose in regulation?

QuackAttackAggie wrote: ↑

February 24th, 2023, 9:35 pm

USU78 wrote:

QuackAttackAggie wrote: ↑

February 24th, 2023, 9:30 pm

USU78 wrote:Air Force - Vegas is sure interesting

Unlv is going to lose

Sure looks that way

Welp air force got creative to lose


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That was such a bad pass. AF just completely crumbled.

dogie wrote: ↑

February 24th, 2023, 9:39 pm

QuackAttackAggie wrote: ↑

February 24th, 2023, 9:35 pm

USU78 wrote:

QuackAttackAggie wrote: ↑

February 24th, 2023, 9:30 pm

USU78 wrote:Air Force - Vegas is sure interesting

Unlv is going to lose

Sure looks that way

Welp air force got creative to lose


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I saw that AFA was up by three with ten seconds left. How did they lose in regulation?

Gave up a layup and then AF through a horrible inbounds pass. UNLV missed a a layup but tipped it in for the lead.

Nevada is up to 31 in the net. If they win their last 2 games especially if they win by more than the spread they should move to 30 or above and be a Q1 game.

It might also be possible for them to move up to 30 if Duke, Kentucky, or Miami lose today as they’re directly ahead of Nevada


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I think NC State is throwing their game against Clemson so Clemson can get in better at large position. I kid but seriously it is super convenient that Clemson is destroying a team on the road considered in the tourney this late in the season when Clemson is looking like they need a big win to get in.


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ASU may have just killed USUs shot at an at-large bid with a 50-foot shot at the buzzer against UofA. Unbelievable shot, nothing but net.

Yossarian wrote: ↑

February 25th, 2023, 2:23 pm

ASU may have just killed USUs shot at an at-large bid with a 50-foot shot at the buzzer against UofA. Unbelievable shot, nothing but net.

Shot was by Cambridge former Nevada Wolfpack player.