Aggies locked in

SectionBAggie · Post by **SectionBAggie** » February 22nd, 2023, 10:46 pm

No lower than a 4th seed in the MWCT. Still holding out hope for #3.

In the 9 years that USU has been in the MW, there have been 27 quarterfinal games where a 1-3 seed played against a team that had won the night before. The better seed has won 22 of those 27 games - and the lower seed has never won more than 1 game in a tournament.

Fours (5) and fives(4) are evenly split.

Number of semifinal appearances::

1 -9
2 - 8
3 - 5
4 - 5
5 - 4
6 - 3
7 - 1
8 - 0
9 - 0
10 - 0
11 - 1

FloridaAggie13 · Post by **FloridaAggie13** » February 22nd, 2023, 11:56 pm

SJSU is a really bad matchup.

VegasBornAggie · Post by **VegasBornAggie** » February 22nd, 2023, 11:56 pm

I don't want to play SJSU at all. That is for sure.

SectionBAggie · Post by **SectionBAggie** » February 23rd, 2023, 7:43 am

VegasBornAggie wrote: ↑
February 22nd, 2023, 11:56 pm
I don't want to play SJSU at all. That is for sure.

Then you hope for UNM to finish 6th. UNM and SJSU are tied now (though UNM has the tie-breaker).

UNM - SDSU, FSU, @CSU
SJSU - BSU, CSU, @AFA

I like a UNM matchup with them coming off of a game the day before - though they will have a lot of fans.

slcagg · Post by **slcagg** » February 23rd, 2023, 7:59 am

I think you guys are crazy to prefer a matchup with New Mexico rather than sjsu. New Mexico is a top 40 team when healthy(they only dropped because house was hurt for a few games)

Dkdavis · Post by **Dkdavis** » February 23rd, 2023, 8:01 am

slcagg wrote: ↑
February 23rd, 2023, 7:59 am
I think you guys are crazy to prefer a matchup with New Mexico rather than sjsu. New Mexico is a top 40 team when healthy(they only dropped because house was hurt for a few games)

I honestly don’t know who I want, but the other downside to New Mexico is their fans will for sure out number the Aggies. It would be considered an away game in my mind. Last year I watched New Mexico play on Wednesday and they about filled the lower bowl and their team was bottom of the conference.

Roy McAvoy · Post by **Roy McAvoy** » February 23rd, 2023, 8:09 am

Here's a question I have. I think the most likely scenario is USU & Boise both finish 13-5, with splitting head to head and being 3rd/4th.

Who then gets the tie breaker as the higher seed in that scenario? I guess the same question would apply to Nevada too, but I believe Nevada will finish 14-4.

It's crazy that we could be playing a team of New Mexico's caliber in the MWC Quarterfinal. Count me as someone who would much rather play SJSU. What an amazing year for the conference.

QuackAttackAggie · Post by **QuackAttackAggie** » February 23rd, 2023, 8:17 am

Roy McAvoy wrote: ↑
February 23rd, 2023, 8:09 am
Here's a question I have. I think the most likely scenario is USU & Boise both finish 13-5, with splitting head to head and being 3rd/4th.

Who then gets the tie breaker as the higher seed in that scenario? I guess the same question would apply to Nevada too, but I believe Nevada will finish 14-4.

It's crazy that we could be playing a team of New Mexico's caliber in the MWC Quarterfinal. Count me as someone who would much rather play SJSU. What an amazing year for the conference.

I think it is record against the 1 seed, then 2, and so on.

GUS · Post by **GUS** » February 23rd, 2023, 8:30 am

If the Aggies win their last two games and are tied with Boise, and Boise loses its last game to SDSU then USU has the tiebreaker advantage.

LarryTheAggie · Post by **LarryTheAggie** » February 23rd, 2023, 8:32 am

QuackAttackAggie wrote: ↑
February 23rd, 2023, 8:17 am

Roy McAvoy wrote: ↑
February 23rd, 2023, 8:09 am
Here's a question I have. I think the most likely scenario is USU & Boise both finish 13-5, with splitting head to head and being 3rd/4th.

Who then gets the tie breaker as the higher seed in that scenario? I guess the same question would apply to Nevada too, but I believe Nevada will finish 14-4.

It's crazy that we could be playing a team of New Mexico's caliber in the MWC Quarterfinal. Count me as someone who would much rather play SJSU. What an amazing year for the conference.
I think it is record against the 1 seed, then 2, and so on.

This. We would get the 3rd.

Assuming Boise loses to SDSU, we would both have two loses to the 1 seed.
We would both be 1-1 against Nevada the 2 seed.
Then it would go to the 5th seed New Mexico who we beat the one time we played them and Boise split with.

However if Boise beats San Diego State they would get the 3 seed.

Aggie84025 · Post by **Aggie84025** » February 23rd, 2023, 8:39 am

Roy McAvoy wrote: ↑
February 23rd, 2023, 8:09 am
Here's a question I have. I think the most likely scenario is USU & Boise both finish 13-5, with splitting head to head and being 3rd/4th.

Who then gets the tie breaker as the higher seed in that scenario? I guess the same question would apply to Nevada too, but I believe Nevada will finish 14-4.

It's crazy that we could be playing a team of New Mexico's caliber in the MWC Quarterfinal. Count me as someone who would much rather play SJSU. What an amazing year for the conference.

If Boise/USU are both 13-5 and Nevada stays at 4 losses I think the following occurs. If Boise loses at home against SDSU and USU wins out they would have the tie breaker over BSU assuming NM finishes above SJSU. If Boise has 5 losses but wins against SDSU than they would have the tiebreaker against USU since they would have beaten SDSU.

Aggie84025 · Post by **Aggie84025** » February 23rd, 2023, 9:04 am

VegasBornAggie wrote: ↑
February 22nd, 2023, 11:56 pm
I don't want to play SJSU at all. That is for sure.

I think the Aggies matchup worse against SJSU especially with Moore and their big center. That being said SJSU is not a great offensive team so I think I would prefer playing them over NM. The Aggies match up better physically with NM but NM has a lot more scorers that can go off.

scotlandog · Post by **scotlandog** » February 23rd, 2023, 9:13 am

Aggie84025 wrote:
VegasBornAggie wrote: ↑
February 22nd, 2023, 11:56 pm
I don't want to play SJSU at all. That is for sure.
I think the Aggies matchup worse against SJSU especially with Moore and their big center. That being said SJSU is not a great offensive team so I think I would prefer playing them over NM. The Aggies match up better physically with NM but NM has a lot more scorers that can go off.

I think we started to figure out how to play Moore at the very end of the game but it was too late. You have to take away his right hand. Watching him play, he ALWAYS goes to his right, even when he starts or gets forced to his left he will try to get back to his right. Just stay on his right, don’t bite and force him into a bad shot with his left or he will pass out.

We started to overplay the right heavily last game but only at the initial point of attack. Once he went left we tried to stop his attack left and then he got what he want and went right again. The few times we stayed on his right and he tried to finish with his left, it wasn’t a good shot.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

flying_scotsman2.0 · Post by **flying_scotsman2.0** » February 23rd, 2023, 12:20 pm

Also UNM is gonna bring a ton of fans while SJSU will bring their bench.

StanfordAggie · Post by **StanfordAggie** » February 24th, 2023, 12:13 am

Honestly, I would rather play New Mexico in the quarters because a neutral court win against #107 SJSU does nothing for us at this point. We would still need to win our semifinal game or go to the NIT most likely. On the other hand, a neutral court win against New Mexico would probably be our best win of the season. If we beat Mexico and then another top-tier MWC team in the semis, our at-large would almost be guaranteed. When you are right on the bubble like USU is, I would much rather have more opportunities for quality wins than fewer.

Aggiesbleedblue · Post by **Aggiesbleedblue** » February 24th, 2023, 5:38 am

There is a site that sorts out all of the associated tiebreakers based on the results of each remaining game. The potential Boise-USU tiebreak isn’t quite as cut and dry as some think.

Link: http://bball.notnothing.net/mwc.php?sport=mbb

AgTime · Post by **AgTime** » February 24th, 2023, 11:39 am

StanfordAggie wrote: ↑
February 24th, 2023, 12:13 am
Honestly, I would rather play New Mexico in the quarters because a neutral court win against #107 SJSU does nothing for us at this point. We would still need to win our semifinal game or go to the NIT most likely. On the other hand, a neutral court win against New Mexico would probably be our best win of the season. If we beat Mexico and then another top-tier MWC team in the semis, our at-large would almost be guaranteed. When you are right on the bubble like USU is, I would much rather have more opportunities for quality wins than fewer.

This. We need opportunities to bolster our resume.

Post by **Aglicious** » February 24th, 2023, 11:58 am

Aggiesbleedblue wrote: ↑
February 24th, 2023, 5:38 am
There is a site that sorts out all of the associated tiebreakers based on the results of each remaining game. The potential Boise-USU tiebreak isn’t quite as cut and dry as some think.

Link: http://bball.notnothing.net/mwc.php?sport=mbb

I love that site. It seems the scenario is exactly what we have talked about on here though. If USU wins out and BSU loses to both SDSU and USU, then this is what the seeds will look like so long as UNM stays ahead of SJSU:

Mountain West Tournament Seeds

1. SDSU (16 - 2)
2. Nevada (14 - 4)
3. Utah St (13 - 5) Defeated Boise St based on winning percentage against #5 teams [N Mexico] (1-0).
4. Boise St (13 - 5) Lost to Utah St based on winning percentage against #5 teams [N Mexico] (1-1).
5. N Mexico (9 - 9)
6. SJSU (8 - 10)
7. Fresno St (6 - 12) Defeated Air Force and UNLV based on round-robin record (3-1).
8. UNLV (6 - 12) With Air Force, lost to Fresno St based on round-robin record (1-2). Defeated Air Force based on head-to-head record (1-0).
9. Air Force (6 - 12) With UNLV, lost to Fresno St based on round-robin record (1-2). Lost to UNLV based on head-to-head record (0-1).
10. Colo St (5 - 13)
11. Wyoming (3 - 15)

What no one is really talking about is how much really rides on UNM staying above SJSU.(currently the exact same conference records.)
Say UNM loses to SDSU but then beats Fresno St. and CSU (not an unlikely scenario). SJSU can still lose to BSU at home, beat CSU at home, and beat AFA the last week on the road and they will end up in a tie for 5th place. Our single game versus UNM then comes back to bite us in the (I can't express myself without swearing).

In this scenario this is what the tourney seeds would look like:

1. SDSU (16 - 2)
2. Nevada (14 - 4)
3. Boise St (13 - 5) Defeated Utah St based on winning percentage against #5 teams [N Mexico and SJSU] (3-1).
4. Utah St (13 - 5) Lost to Boise St based on winning percentage against #5 teams [N Mexico and SJSU] (2-1).
5. N Mexico (9 - 9) Defeated SJSU based on head-to-head record (2-0).
6. SJSU (9 - 9) Lost to N Mexico based on head-to-head record (0-2).
7. Fresno St (6 - 12) Defeated UNLV based on head-to-head record (2-0).
8. UNLV (6 - 12) Lost to Fresno St based on head-to-head record (0-2).
9. Colo St (5 - 13) Defeated Air Force based on winning percentage against #2 teams [Nevada] (0-1).
10. Air Force (5 - 13) Lost to Colo St based on winning percentage against #2 teams [Nevada] (0-2).
11. Wyoming (3 - 15

Aggiesbleedblue · Post by **Aggiesbleedblue** » February 24th, 2023, 12:09 pm

I could also see a scenario in which Boise loses @ SJSU & USU, but beats SDSU, which would also give them the tiebreak.

breadysmith · Post by **breadysmith** » February 24th, 2023, 3:54 pm

This is the scenario I’d like to see play out. However, it’s one of the more unlikely. I’d like to get NM for the benefit of the better win vs the Josers but get them after they’d played a game the previous day. Then a matchup with Nevada in the semifinals.

1. SDSU (16 - 2)
2. Nevada (14 - 4)
3. Utah St (13 - 5)
4. Boise St (12 - 6)
5. SJSU (10 - 8)
6. N Mexico (8 - 10)
7. Fresno St (7 - 11)
8. UNLV (6 - 12)
9. Colo St (5 - 13) Above Air Force based on winning percentage against #2 teams [Nevada] (0-1).
10. Air Force (5 - 13) Below Colo St based on winning percentage against #2 teams [Nevada] (0-2).
11. Wyoming (3 - 15)

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Coloraggie · Post by **Coloraggie** » February 27th, 2023, 1:27 pm

breadysmith wrote: ↑
February 24th, 2023, 3:54 pm
This is the scenario I’d like to see play out. However, it’s one of the more unlikely. I’d like to get NM for the benefit of the better win vs the Josers but get them after they’d played a game the previous day. Then a matchup with Nevada in the semifinals.

1. SDSU (16 - 2)
2. Nevada (14 - 4)
3. Utah St (13 - 5)
4. Boise St (12 - 6)
5. SJSU (10 - 8)
6. N Mexico (8 - 10)
7. Fresno St (7 - 11)
8. UNLV (6 - 12)
9. Colo St (5 - 13) Above Air Force based on winning percentage against #2 teams [Nevada] (0-1).
10. Air Force (5 - 13) Below Colo St based on winning percentage against #2 teams [Nevada] (0-2).
11. Wyoming (3 - 15)

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Quick question for those in the know. Does the tie-breaker scenario actually use the term "winning percentage" against the next highest ranked team? Because a team that is 0-1 against a team has the EXACT SAME winning percentage as a team that is 0-2 against the same team. Both of them have a winning percentage of 0.000000000000000. I don't think you can assume the 0-1 team would beat a team that they lost to if they just played a second time. I don't think math is the MWC strongsuit but why would you give preferential seeding to a team just because their schedule didn't have them play the toughest teams? So, is the tiebreaker determined by record or by winning percentage?

The same would apply to teams that are 1-0 or 2-0 vs. another team. You can't assume the 1-0 team wouldn't win if they played again. Completely different story at 1-0 vs. 1-1 or 0-1 vs. 1-1, In these cases you are giving credit only for the games actually played and the winning percentage is different.

You could give a factor for home/road wins/losses but then you are back in the problem of probability rather than deciding on the court.

sstrasser · Post by **sstrasser** » February 27th, 2023, 1:31 pm

There is a whole section on the MW web site about tie breakers
https://themw.com/documents/2023/1/18// ... f?id=15077

the first section talks about what you are saying,
"When comparing records against a single team or a group of teams, the higher winning percentage
shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 3-0
is better than 3-1). However, 2-0 is better than 1-0, and 0-1 is better than 0-2. Thus, if two tied
teams have split their regular-season series, but Team A is 2-0 against the top seed and Team B
is 1-0 against the top seed, Team A would gain the higher seed."

Coloraggie · Post by **Coloraggie** » February 27th, 2023, 1:56 pm

Thank you sstrasser! I'm glad that is delineated, whether I agree with it or not it is in place.

Cheecho6 · Post by **Cheecho6** » March 1st, 2023, 8:17 am

Are we now locked into the 4 seed as I believe Nevada has the tiebreak over us?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

SectionBAggie · Post by **SectionBAggie** » March 1st, 2023, 8:27 am

Cheecho6 wrote: ↑
March 1st, 2023, 8:17 am
Are we now locked into the 4 seed as I believe Nevada has the tiebreak over us?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

IF 1) USU wins out 2) UN loses at home to UNLV then USU finishes as the three seed. USU 13-5 UN 12-6.

Anything else in those three games puts USU as the #4 seed.

BTW, the three seed scenario would mean a tie for 2nd place with Boise (but they would hold the tie breaker.)

utaggies · Post by **utaggies** » March 1st, 2023, 8:35 am

Cheecho6 wrote: ↑
March 1st, 2023, 8:17 am
Are we now locked into the 4 seed as I believe Nevada has the tiebreak over us?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Unless Nevada loses to UNLV and we win out.

Upcoming Events

Event Results

Aggies locked in

Aggies locked in

Re: Aggies locked in

Re: Aggies locked in

Re: Aggies locked in

Re: Aggies locked in

Re: Aggies locked in

Re: Aggies locked in

Re: Aggies locked in

Re: Aggies locked in

Re: Aggies locked in

Re: Aggies locked in

Re: Aggies locked in

Re: Aggies locked in

Re: Aggies locked in

Re: Aggies locked in

Re: Aggies locked in

Re: Aggies locked in

Re: Aggies locked in

Re: Aggies locked in

Re: Aggies locked in

Re: Aggies locked in

Re: Aggies locked in

Re: Aggies locked in

Re: Aggies locked in

Re: Aggies locked in

Re: Aggies locked in

USU Forums

MWC Forums

Upcoming/Past Opponents

Schedules

Upcoming Events

Event Results

Basketball

National Polls/Rankings

Stats

Football

National Polls/Rankings

Stats

Newspapers

Newsletters

Radio

Blogs

Podcasts

Websites

Donate