In the last 5 losses at the AFA, AF has shot better from the field than USU.
Over those same years, any wins at AFA showed USU shooting better from the field than AFA.

It is likely the case in most games that the better shooting team wins. But if USU can defend well, I like their chances.

Looking at a lot of other metrics using https://www.usustats.com/, nothing else was absolutely aligned with outcome other than shooting percentage from the field. (I didn't break out 2- point shooting separately.)

P.S. For the most part I enjoy digging through old game results, but it really hurt to see that in the 19-point loss in 2020, AFA won the rebound battle 50-29. OUCH!

I remember shooting some crazy low three point percentage one year, like 1-15 or something. I believe we lost that one as well.

NVAggie wrote: ↑

December 29th, 2023, 1:02 pm

I remember shooting some crazy low three point percentage one year, like 1-15 or something. I believe we lost that one as well.

2 seasons ago we lost 49-47 while shooting 1-19 from 3.

Amazingly, that wasn't the worst loss. That would have been the 79-60 loss four years ago. We shot pretty well from three (10-28), but gave up 58% FG shooting inside the arc and lost the rebound comparison 50-29. It was an awful performance.

NVAggie wrote: ↑

December 29th, 2023, 1:02 pm

I remember shooting some crazy low three point percentage one year, like 1-15 or something. I believe we lost that one as well.

If I'm thinking of the same one, that was in Odom's 1st season here. We were down two with the ball at the end of the game and were coming out of a timeout. We were 1/18 from 3 at that point. The play that was drawn up? A 28-footer that missed badly and sealed the loss. I was so frustrated about that being what we chose to do.

Sorry SectionB, I didn't see your post while I was typing mine. Such a frustrating game.

I've been to most of the games on the let 10 years and we always seem to struggle shooting at AFA. I'm not worried with this team because we struggle every night but make up for it on other ways. Last year if we didn't hit our 3s we had nothing else, this year we win with everything else. I don't see us having a pricked winning this year. They simply do not have anyone to guard Osobor and they will struggle getting off any good shots.

NVAggie wrote: ↑

December 29th, 2023, 1:02 pm

I remember shooting some crazy low three point percentage one year, like 1-15 or something. I believe we lost that one as well.

Was that the whole team, or just Brock Miller?

Man, Brock Miller. Everyone always gushed about what a great shooter he was, but I swear he had a shooting slump that lasted about 2 years.

Mr. Sneelock wrote: ↑

January 2nd, 2024, 10:48 am

Man, Brock Miller. Everyone always gushed about what a great shooter he was, but I swear he had a shooting slump that lasted about 2 years.

It was always an aerodynamics issue.

I'm very worried about this game. It has all the makings of a trap game: early afternoon road game, against an inferior opponent, after a long break, and with a huge look ahead game (CSU) next up. Hopefully Sprinkle has the guys ready.

Mr. Sneelock wrote: ↑

January 2nd, 2024, 10:48 am

Man, Brock Miller. Everyone always gushed about what a great shooter he was, but I swear he had a shooting slump that lasted about 2 years.

Brock was a fine shooter, but not great.

He shot 34% from three for his career, but was streaky over the course of whole seasons (probably related to health).

17-18 (5 games): 47.4%
18-19: 35.4%
19-20: 30.5%
20-21: 36.5%
21-22: 31.4%

Brock Miller would be a top shooter on our current roster. Also, I hated when Brock would square up for a shot.

3rdGenAggie wrote: ↑

January 2nd, 2024, 11:02 am

Mr. Sneelock wrote: ↑

January 2nd, 2024, 10:48 am

Man, Brock Miller. Everyone always gushed about what a great shooter he was, but I swear he had a shooting slump that lasted about 2 years.

Brock was a fine shooter, but not great.

He shot 34% from three for his career, but was streaky over the course of whole seasons (probably related to health).

17-18 (5 games): 47.4%
18-19: 35.4%
19-20: 30.5%
20-21: 36.5%
21-22: 31.4%

IIRC he usually had a bac brace with TENs built in during game time. During warm ups he would legit make around 90% of his shots, then came the head band during playing time and % would drop...

Aggie702 wrote: ↑

January 2nd, 2024, 10:59 am

I'm very worried about this game. It has all the makings of a trap game: early afternoon road game, against an inferior opponent, after a long break, and with a huge look ahead game (CSU) next up. Hopefully Sprinkle has the guys ready.

I really don't think it is a trap game. The team has been off for 10 days and has solely been able to prepare for AF. If we lose i don't think it is because we were looking forward to CSU. It is the first game of conference play the team will be solely focused on AF and starting off in the right way. If we lose it is because we could not make enough shots etc., but don't think it will be due to looking ahead.

AF likes to pass to shoot, 8th in assists/fg. If we can just limit this and rebound we are fine. They are almost dead last in the country in offensive rebounds per game at 6 pg. They have decent shooting percentages but don't take many shots which could account for the low offensive rebounds.