Spectrum magic and Vegas lines

FeartheFro · Post by **FeartheFro** » February 21st, 2024, 8:37 am

Let’s say Utah State wins the regular season championship. What MWC teams would we be favored against in the tournament as the #1 seed. I think we would be favored against the following:

San Jose
Fresno
Air Force
Wyoming
Boise

I think the Vegas game would be a pick’em

We would be dogs against
CSU
San Diego State
New Mexico
Nevada

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FeartheFro · Post by **FeartheFro** » February 21st, 2024, 1:02 pm

Man, I'm feeling like Signalwar with this post. I actually thought this would generate some discussion. I'm going to assume everyone here has me blocked (for good reason).

Aggie84025 · Post by **Aggie84025** » February 21st, 2024, 1:12 pm

I agree with your list but if we beat NM at home i think on a neutral court we would be favored.

FloridaAggie13 · Post by **FloridaAggie13** » February 21st, 2024, 1:15 pm

FeartheFro wrote: ↑
February 21st, 2024, 1:02 pm
Man, I'm feeling like Signalwar with this post. I actually thought this would generate some discussion. I'm going to assume everyone here has me blocked (for good reason).

Not only have I blocked you but also have a restraining notice pending.

Blue Sage · Post by **Blue Sage** » February 21st, 2024, 1:24 pm

FeartheFro wrote: ↑
February 21st, 2024, 8:37 am
Let’s say Utah State wins the regular season championship. What MWC teams would we be favored against in the tournament as the #1 seed. I think we would be favored against the following:

San Jose
Fresno
Air Force
Wyoming
Boise

I think the Vegas game would be a pick’em

We would be dogs against
CSU
San Diego State
New Mexico
Nevada

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It’s crazy when you look at your dogs list which seems to make sense. Well it feels like after reading it we should be # 5 in conference yet here we are at #1. Hard to count our team out from any of those a games though especially after last night. Somehow our guys find a way to win.

FeartheFro · Post by **FeartheFro** » February 21st, 2024, 1:25 pm

FloridaAggie13 wrote:
FeartheFro wrote: ↑
February 21st, 2024, 1:02 pm
Man, I'm feeling like Signalwar with this post. I actually thought this would generate some discussion. I'm going to assume everyone here has me blocked (for good reason).
Not only have I blocked you but also have a restraining notice pending.

You liberals always take things to the extreme. By the way, I knew you were going to say this.

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FloridaAggie13 · Post by **FloridaAggie13** » February 21st, 2024, 1:50 pm

FeartheFro wrote: ↑
February 21st, 2024, 1:25 pm

FloridaAggie13 wrote:
FeartheFro wrote: ↑
February 21st, 2024, 1:02 pm
Man, I'm feeling like Signalwar with this post. I actually thought this would generate some discussion. I'm going to assume everyone here has me blocked (for good reason).
Not only have I blocked you but also have a restraining notice pending.
You liberals always take things to the extreme. By the way, I knew you were going to say this.

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I've told you to take a break from the basketball forum as you are too emotional.

MetsJetsAggies · Post by **MetsJetsAggies** » February 21st, 2024, 2:02 pm

Home court in MW feels worth a little more, or is at least bet that way.

If you look at the closing line of our game against SDSU (-3.5) that would normally tell you that on a neutral floor the game would be close to pickem although in this case I think home court might be worth 4.5 and SDSU would be 1.5-2.5 pt favs on a neutral over us. And SDSU is the best power rated/kenpom team in the conference. We were 6 pt favorites against Nevada which would mean we would be about -2 on a neutral at the time, but now I think we would essentially be pickem against them in Vegas

We were 5-6 pt dogs on the road to CSU and UNM mostly because it’s just damn tough to win on the road and bettors bet that way in these games.

IMO almost every game in Vegas involving top teams will be effectively pickem. SDSU may be favored over everyone by 1.5 and Boise might be dogs to most by 1.5 but it’s going to be very close to a coin flip in every game

Source: I work for a big Sportsbook

FeartheFro · Post by **FeartheFro** » February 21st, 2024, 2:06 pm

MetsJetsAggies wrote:Home court in MW feels worth a little more, or is at least bet that way.

If you look at the closing line of our game against SDSU (-3.5) that would normally tell you that on a neutral floor the game would be close to pickem although in this case I think home court might be worth 4.5 and SDSU would be 1.5-2.5 pt favs on a neutral over us. And SDSU is the best power rated/kenpom team in the conference. We were 6 pt favorites against Nevada which would mean we would be about -2 on a neutral at the time, but now I think we would essentially be pickem against them in Vegas

We were 5-6 pt dogs on the road to CSU and UNM mostly because it’s just damn tough to win on the road and bettors bet that way in these games.

IMO almost every game in Vegas involving top teams will be effectively pickem. SDSU may be favored over everyone by 1.5 and Boise might be dogs to most by 1.5 but it’s going to be very close to a coin flip in every game

Source: I work for a big Sportsbook

This is the EXACT type of conversation I was hoping for!!

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Aggie702 · Post by **Aggie702** » February 21st, 2024, 2:40 pm

FeartheFro wrote: ↑
February 21st, 2024, 8:37 am
Let’s say Utah State wins the regular season championship. What MWC teams would we be favored against in the tournament as the #1 seed. I think we would be favored against the following:

San Jose
Fresno
Air Force
Wyoming
Boise

I think the Vegas game would be a pick’em

We would be dogs against
CSU
San Diego State
New Mexico
Nevada

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I agree with San Jose, Fresno, AFA, Wyoming and Boise. Wyoming and AFA, we were favorites on road and at home (haven't played AFA yet, but we will obviously be favorites). We haven't played at SJSU or Fresno yet, but figures we will be road favorites, meaning favorites on neutral court as well.

Boise I think we were 2 point underdogs at Boise and about 4 or 5 point favorites at home, so we'd be favored on a neutral.

At UNLV we were 2 point favorites. I disagree with you and anticipate we'd be favorites on a neutral court if we face them again. About the same 2 point line.

For Nevada, I think we'd also be favorites. We didn't play them on the road, so no line but we were 5 point favorites at home. I suspect we'd be a 1-2 point favorite on a neutral.

For SDSU and CSU, we were 5-6 point underdogs at their place, and 2.5-3 point favorites at home. Given the discrepancy, I think both would be 1-2 point faves on a neutral court.

For New Mexico, we were also 5-6 point underdog at the PIT. Haven't played at home, but by similar logic, we will be about a 2-3 point favorite at home, making us a 1-2 point dog on a neutral.

The only caveat for SDSU/CSU/NM is if we get the 1 seed and face them in the champ game with extra rest, I could see us getting an extra half-point to reflect that.

PIGSKINAGGIE · Post by **PIGSKINAGGIE** » February 22nd, 2024, 3:33 am

If we win out and end up as the 1 seed, how much hate do we get from other fan bases and have them cheering against us at the tournament? I don’t imagine that we will be viewed as the underdogs at that point if that happens. I will always be rooting against the donkeys and lobos no matter who they play. Hate them as much as I do those pricks in provo.

Aggie84025 · Post by **Aggie84025** » February 22nd, 2024, 10:14 am

PIGSKINAGGIE wrote: ↑
February 22nd, 2024, 3:33 am
If we win out and end up as the 1 seed, how much hate do we get from other fan bases and have them cheering against us at the tournament? I don’t imagine that we will be viewed as the underdogs at that point if that happens. I will always be rooting against the donkeys and lobos no matter who they play. Hate them as much as I do those pricks in provo.

If the Aggies are the first seed every other fanbase in attendance for that quarterfinal game will be cheering against the Aggies. There is so much parity between the top 7 teams i don't think in the semifinals that other fanbases would be actively cheering against the Aggies as much.

Post by **GeoAg** » February 22nd, 2024, 10:21 am

Gotta keep that first seed to get the extra rest before the final if we can get there. Need it with our lack of depth

Aggie in Boise · Post by **Aggie in Boise** » February 22nd, 2024, 10:44 am

GeoAg wrote: ↑
February 22nd, 2024, 10:21 am
Gotta keep that first seed to get the extra rest before the final if we can get there. Need it with our lack of depth

For sure. Hopefully, we can get Sakho, Templin, Johnson, and Jackson more reps before the tourney. Additional experience and confidence prior to the tourney will be helpful. It will also give our key players some needed rest. I'm glad we have a bye and teams like AF, SJSU, and Fresno all coming up.

NVAggie · Post by **NVAggie** » February 22nd, 2024, 10:46 am

Those won't be cakewalk games. Certainly easier than SDSU, but not easy.

Aggie84025 · Post by **Aggie84025** » February 22nd, 2024, 10:48 am

Aggie in Boise wrote: ↑
February 22nd, 2024, 10:44 am

GeoAg wrote: ↑
February 22nd, 2024, 10:21 am
Gotta keep that first seed to get the extra rest before the final if we can get there. Need it with our lack of depth
For sure. Hopefully, we can get Sakho, Templin, Johnson, and Jackson more reps before the tourney. Additional experience and confidence prior to the tourney will be helpful. It will also give our key players some needed rest. I'm glad we have a bye and teams like AF, SJSU, and Fresno all coming up.

Hopefully against FSU, AF and SJSU the Aggies can get some decent sized leads and get them all some good additional playing time.

FeartheFro · Post by **FeartheFro** » February 22nd, 2024, 10:52 am

I’m going to assume none of the posters on this thread play for the Aggies. I hope that the actual team is not taking the view of the Fresno and San Jose state games being easy games. Go look at their home box scores. There can’t be any decrease in intensity for these games.

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Aggie in Boise · Post by **Aggie in Boise** » February 22nd, 2024, 11:12 am

FeartheFro wrote: ↑
February 22nd, 2024, 10:52 am
I’m going to assume none of the posters on this thread play for the Aggies. I hope that the actual team is not taking the view of the Fresno and San Jose state games being easy games. Go look at their home box scores. There can’t be any decrease in intensity for these games.

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They won't be easy especially, if the team isn't prepared and thinks the games will be easy.

Aggie84025 · Post by **Aggie84025** » February 22nd, 2024, 11:21 am

FeartheFro wrote: ↑
February 22nd, 2024, 10:52 am
I’m going to assume none of the posters on this thread play for the Aggies. I hope that the actual team is not taking the view of the Fresno and San Jose state games being easy games. Go look at their home box scores. There can’t be any decrease in intensity for these games.

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100% correct, the Aggies can not take them lightly. Those are games the Aggies should win but if they don't play well they can for sure lose. I am confident Danny will have them focused to take it one game at a time.

Post by **ProvoAggie** » February 22nd, 2024, 1:09 pm

SDSU nearly lost at San Jose and they played well in Logan as well.. That game is always scary.

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bigblue · Post by **bigblue** » February 22nd, 2024, 6:28 pm

ProvoAggie wrote:SDSU nearly lost at San Jose and they played well in Logan as well.. That game is always scary.

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It will also be their last game of the season. They are going play hard for it. Super scary game.

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